Inflationary expectations and monetary policy: evidence from Bangladesh

This article first estimates inflationary expectations using a Blanchard–Quah VAR model by decomposing the nominal interest rate into expected inflation and the ex ante real interest rate. Then I utilize this expected inflation along with other macroeconomic variables as inputs to the monetary policy function in a recursive VAR model to identify exogenous policy shocks. To calculate inflationary expectations, I assume that ex ante real interest rate shocks do not have a long-run effect on the nominal interest rate. This article finds that the public expects lower inflation for the future during periods of high inflation. Estimated results from the recursive VAR suggest that a contractionary policy shock increases the real interest rate, appreciates domestic currency, and lowers inflationary expectations and industrial output. However, I find a lagged policy response from Bangladesh Bank to higher inflationary expectations.     

The Bundesbank's Inflation Policy and Asymmetric Behavior of the German Term Structure

The paper analyzes the influence of the Bundesbank's inflation targeting policy on the behavior of the spread between long‐term and short‐term German interest rates. The term spread is considered to be a key indicator of future inflation and economic activity. The application of a momentum threshold autoregressive cointegration model enables the authors to study the adjustment process of the spread toward equilibrium in greater detail than heretofore possible, and permits relaxation of the linear and symmetric adjustment assumption underlying conventional cointegration and error correction investigations on the expectations hypothesis. The empirical findings are consistent with the hypothesized asymmetric adjustment behavior of the spread and can be explained by the Bundesbank's inflation targeting policy during the period from 1975 to 1998.     

Term structure and forward guidance as instruments of monetary policy

This paper studies a simple monetary model with a Ricardian fiscal policy in which equilibria are indeterminate if monetary policy consists solely of a rule for fixing the short-term interest rate. We introduce explicitly into the model the agents’ expectations of inflation which create the indeterminacy and show that there are two types of policies—a term structure rule or a forward guidance rule for the short rate—which lead to determinacy. The first consists in fixing the interest rates on a family of bonds of different maturities as function of realized inflation; the second consists in fixing the short-term interest rate and the expected values of the short-term interest rate for a sequence of periods into the future as a function of realized inflation. If the monetary authority chooses an inflation process that satisfies conditions derived in the paper and applies one of these rules, it anchors agents’ expectations to this process, in the sense that it is the unique inflation process compatible with equilibrium when the interest rates or expected future values of the short rate are those specified by the term structure or forward guidance rule.     

The expectations theory of the term structure: Evidence from inflation forecasts

This paper tests the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations theory of the term structure using the Livingston survey data on price inflation forecasts. For a variety of sample periods, the paper presents evidence that the data are consistent with the theory. Since inflation forecasts, unlike interest rates, are not linked to specific underlying financial assets, the relationship between longterm and short-term inflation forecasts should not embody risk premia. This paper's findings therefore lend support to the view that a time-varying risk premium is needed to explain the observed term structure of interest rates.     

Expectation Traps and Monetary Policy

Why is inflation persistently high in some periods and low in others? The reason may be the absence of commitment in monetary policy. In a standard model, absence of commitment leads to multiple equilibria, or expectation traps , even without trigger strategies. In these traps, expectations of high or low inflation lead the public to take defensive actions, which then make accommodating those expectations the optimal monetary policy. Under commitment, the equilibrium is unique and the inflation rate is low on average. This analysis suggests that institutions which promote commitment can prevent high inflation episodes from recurring.     

Inflation Developments and Perceptions after the Euro Cash Changeover

Abstract. This paper analyses the evolution of inflation and of consumers' inflation perceptions in the aftermath of the euro cash changeover. It finds that the cross‐country variation of food product inflation was dependent on the complexity of conversion rates, with statistically significant and economically sizeable effects especially for low‐priced items sold in midpriced stores. The paper also shows that cross‐country differences in the mismatch of perceived and actual inflation were linked to differences in the complexity of conversion rates. These results are in line with theories of finite information‐processing capacities on the side of consumers.     

Identifying fiscal inflation

Fiscal theorists warn about the risk of future inflation as a consequence of fiscal imbalances in the US. Because actual inflation remains historically low and data on inflation expectations do not corroborate such risks, warnings for fiscal inflation are often ignored in policy and academic circles. This paper shows that a canonical NK-DSGE model enables identifying an anticipated component of inflation expectations that is closely related to fiscal policy. Estimation results suggest that fiscal inflation concerns have induced a 1.6%-points increase in long-run inflation since 2001. The model also rationalizes why data on inflation expectations do not reveal such concerns outright.     

A dynamic Nelson-Siegel yield curve model with Markov switching

This paper proposes a model to better capture persistent regime changes in the interest rates of the US term structure. While the previous literature on this matter proposes that regime changes in the term structure are due to persistent changes in the conditional mean and volatility of interest rates we find that changes in a single parameter that determines the factor loadings of the model better captures regime changes. We show that this model gives superior in-sample forecasting performance as compared to a baseline model and a volatility-switching model. In general, we find compelling evidence that the extracted factors from our term structure models are closely related with various economic variables. Furthermore, we investigate and find evidence that the effects of macroeconomic phenomena such as monetary policy, inflation expectations, and real economic activity differ according to the particular regime realized for the term structure. In particular, we identify the periods where monetary policy appears to have a greater effect on the yield curve, and the periods where inflation expectations seem to have a greater effect in yield determination. We also find convincing evidence of a relationship between the regimes estimated by the various switching models with economic activity and monetary policy.     

Time-varying U.S. inflation dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips curve

This paper introduces a form of boundedly-rational inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve. The representative agent is assumed to behave as an econometrician, employing a time series model for inflation that allows for both permanent and temporary shocks. The near-unity coefficient on expected inflation in the Phillips curve causes the agent's perception of a unit root in inflation to become close to self-fulfilling. In a “consistent expectations equilibrium,” the value of the Kalman gain parameter in the agent's forecast rule is pinned down using the observed autocorrelation of inflation changes. The forecast errors observed by the agent are close to white noise, making it difficult for the agent to detect a misspecification of the forecast rule. I show that this simple model of inflation expectations can generate time-varying persistence and volatility that is broadly similar to that observed in long-run U.S. data. Model-based values for expected inflation track well with movements in survey-based measures of U.S. expected inflation. In numerical simulations, the model can generate pronounced low-frequency swings in the level of inflation that are driven solely by expectational feedback, not by changes in monetary policy.     

Dynamic asset allocation and consumption under inflation inequality: The impacts of inflation experiences and expectations

Differences in spending patterns and in price increases across goods and services lead to the unequal inflation experiences of households (called inflation inequality). These differences then cause disagreements in inflation expectations and eventually have a significant effect on households’ asset allocation and consumption decisions. The asset allocation model in this paper explains how inflation experiences affect household investment and consumption through corresponding inflation expectations, which are characterized by long-term expected inflation, the impact coefficient of the expected inflation and the correlation between expected inflation and the risky return. Using China's economic data, the empirical results show that significant differences in inflation expectation arise from income gap, regional inequality, different inflation measures and economic sector spending differences. Using the estimated coefficients, the calibration results have policy implications that households need more financing channels to resist inflation, especially in rural areas and in the raw material sector.     

Performance of inflation targeting in retrospect

Both inflation and inflation expectations declined considerably in the inflation targeting countries during the past two decades. The questions of whether this decline has actually been an outcome of inflation targeting solely and whether inflation targeting has been successful in stabilizing other macroeconomic variables though remain. This study considers these questions on the basis of 16 inflation targeting countries and 21 non-targeting ones using a difference-in-difference approach. With regard to the baseline period of 1996–1999 during which neither of the groups was implementing inflation targeting, a difference-in-difference approach was employed to assess the effects of inflation targeting on inflation, output growth, real exchange rates, inflation volatility and real exchange rate volatility during moving 4-year periods between 2007 and 2015. Our estimates suggest that inflation targeting was superior in terms of harnessing inflation as well as inflation volatility. In terms of economic growth, however, inflation targeting seems to be neutral and in terms of real exchange rates it seems not to be stabilizing, if not de-stabilizing. A hybrid version of inflation targeting, namely the conventional inflation targeting augmented by an improved capacity to deliver macro-prudence as in the post-Lehman economic climate, can therefore be viewed as the best available policy alternative for the upcoming decades.     

The macroeconomic risks of undesirably low inflation

This paper investigates the macroeconomic risks associated with undesirably low inflation using a medium-sized New Keynesian model. We consider different causes of persistently low inflation, including a downward shift in long-run inflation expectations, a fall in nominal wage growth, and a favorable supply-side shock. We show that the macroeconomic effects of persistently low inflation depend crucially on its underlying cause, as well as on the extent to which monetary policy is constrained by the zero lower bound. Finally, we discuss policy options to mitigate these effects.     

The demand for money during a period of inflationary expectations. Some FIML based estimates for Greece

This paper estimates and tests a model of the demand for money function, which uses the public's expectations of future inflation as a proxy of the opportunity cost of holding money. The hallmark of the paper is that expectations are rational inMuth sense. The cross-equation rational expectations restrictions are derived and then tested, using quarterly Greek data of the high inflation period 1973I to 1981 IV. The paper concludes that the evidence is consistent with the rational expectations assumption and supports the adopted specification of the money demand function.     

Stock Market Responses Under Quantitative Easing: State Dependence and Transparency in Monetary Policy

This paper evaluates the effects of unconventional monetary policies adopted by the Bank of Japan from the year 2001 to 2006. A new measure is proposed to identify a nontraditional monetary policy shock from policy packages under the zero lower bound of short‐term nominal interest rates during the quantitative easing period, using data on intraday 3‐month Euroyen futures rates. We find that stock markets do not react to a policy surprise in an expected manner and negatively respond to a monetary easing surprise. Moreover, we find an asymmetric response during a boom and a recession and a nonlinear reaction because of increasing uncertainty concerning future inflation dynamics and the enhancement of monetary policy transparency. Our result suggests that it is difficult to implement unconventional monetary policy to manage agents’ expectations and a ‘lean against the wind’ policy to prevent asset bubbles, particularly at the zero bound.     

The information content of market-based measures for the long-term inflation expectations of professionals: evidence from a midas analysis

Long-term inflation expectations taken from the Survey of Professional Forecasters are a major source of information for monetary policy. Unfortunately, they are published only on a quarterly basis. This article investigates the daily information content of market-based measures, such as inflation-linked swaps and breakeven inflation rates, for the next survey outcome. Using a mixed data sampling approach, we find that professionals account for the daily dynamics of market-based measures when they submit their long-term inflation expectations. We propose a daily indicator of professionals’ inflation expectations that outperforms alternative indicators that ignore the high-frequency dynamics of market-based measures. To illustrate the usefulness of the new indicator, we provide new evidence on the (re-)anchoring of U.S. inflation expectations.     

Targets and lags in a two-equation model of US stabilization

A simple model of activist macroeconomic policy derives a reaction function by assuming that rational governments have performance objectives, but are constrained by the Phillips curve. Although not formally modeled, governments apply a variety of instruments to influence inflation and output, in addition to monetary policy these include fiscal policy, bailouts and exchange rates. Our econometric results are generally consistent with US economic history. One qualification is that governments appear more likely to target growth rates than output gaps. Another inference is that inflation expectations are more likely to be backward than forward looking; a variety of rational expectation models fit the data less well than do simple inertial expectations. We also find that annual data series are more appropriate than quarterly ones for studying these issues.     

Assessing the (de-)anchoring of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US

Well-anchored inflation expectations play an important role in the achievement of price stability. The (de-)anchoring of long-term inflation expectations in the US has been under debate since the sub-prime crisis. This paper assesses and explains the evolution of the degree of (de-)anchorage of households’ long-term inflation expectations in the US during the period of 1990 to 2019, in a time-varying framework. We find the long-term inflation expectations to be de-anchored during the entire study period. The de-anchorage was greater in the first half of the 1990s. Subsequently, it has declined but has not yet anchored. An increase in inflation perception reduces the degree of de-anchorage in a (persistently) low-inflation perception period, whereas it causes a rise in the degree of de-anchorage when inflation perception is around its long-term average or is persistently high. Further, a rise in economic policy uncertainty also increases the de-anchorage of households’ long-term inflation expectations. This suggests that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) may find it beneficial to pay more attention to households’ inflation perception.     

我国居民通胀预期的测度:基于银行间债券市场数据的方法

通胀预期测度是通胀预期管理的前提。文章基于通货膨胀持久性特征,在无套利假设下,将实际通胀率这一宏观变量纳入传统的因子模型中,并运用银行间债券市场收益率数据对我国居民通胀预期进行了估计,结果显示我国居民通胀预期并不完全满足理性预期假设,而是与实际通胀之间存在有规律的系统性偏差,短期实际利率的变动是造成偏差的主要原因。文章认为通过强化货币政策前瞻性可以消除这种偏差,从而抑制实际通货膨胀水平。     

Long-run money demand function in Argentina during 1935–1962: evidence from cointegration and error correction models

This paper provides a study of Argentina's money demand function during 1935–62 and 1946–62. These priods not only involved several important changes in Argentina's economy and banking system but also included high and volatile inflation. Using cointegration tests and error correction moderlling, results shows that even in periods of large variability there exists a stationary long-run demand function for real M1 and real M2 in Argentina. Error Correction models show that there is biddirectional causality between real money stock (M1 and M2) and the rate of inflation in both periods. Real income is found to be exogenous in all relationships. Thus results presented in this paper provide merit to Cagan's form of money demand function during high inflation periods.