Is China''''s Entry into the WTO Good for the United States

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Privatizing Social Security in the United States—Comparing the Options

This paper uses a new version of the Auerbach–Kotlikoff model to consider alternative ways to privatize the U.S. Social Security System. The new model incorporates intra- and intergenerational heterogeneity and is closely calibrated to U.S. fiscal institutions. Three privatization issues are considered: financing the transition, participation rules, and progressivity. As shown, Social Security's privatization can substantially raise long-run living standards. But these gains come at the cost of welfare losses to transition generations and take a long time to materialize. The long-run poor have much to gain from privatization even absent an explicit redistribution mechanism. Finally, privatizations that give initial workers the option of remaining in the current system have particularly low transition costs and particularly favorable macroeconomic consequences. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D9, E6.     

Mapping the Dynamism of the United States' Geopolitical Code: The Geography of the State of the Union Speeches, 1988–2008

The changing geographical foci of the geopolitical code of the United States are examined by a content analysis of the presidential State of the Union Speeches between 1988 and 2008, the last year of President Reagan's term through the presidency of George W. Bush. The State of the Union speeches are interpreted as geopolitical discourse within a structural setting, using seven foreign-policy paradigms as an organising framework. The empirical findings illustrate an increase over time in the number of regions and countries mentioned in the speeches. Also, notable differences between administrations in terms of their advocacy of globalist or regionalist policies and emphasis upon allies or adversaries are found.     

The evolution of State-Local balance sheets in the United States, 1953–2013

State and local debt in the United States more than doubled as a share of gross domestic product between 1953 and 2007. Using a historical accounting framework, we find that there is no straightforward relationship over time between state and local deficits and debt growth. We find that only 17 percent of the variation in aggregate state–local debt ratios comes from variation in the fiscal balance. This is especially true in the 1980s, the period of most rapid increase in state–local debt ratios. Before 1980, there were small but persistent deficits, but stable debt ratios. In the 1980s, state and local sectors shifted toward budget surpluses but saw rising debt ratios. This is explained by a faster pace of asset accumulation. Our results demonstrate the autonomy of balance sheet variables and suggest that changing debt ratios cannot be explained by real income and expenditure flows.     

The United States and United Kingdom activities of Japanese banks, 1980–1988

This paper analyzes the United States and United Kingdom activities of Japanese banks by integrating their activities in these two markets with the regulatory environment for banks in Japan and Japan's overall external financial position, as well as with business opportunities in the two host countries. The paper concludes that the regulatory environment in Japan, including restraints on interest rates and possible quantitative restraints, has had an impact on activities of Japanese banks in these two foreign markets.Japanese banks appear to have adjusted to their domestic regulatory environment by using their London branches as a flexible funding source and their U.S. offices in extending commercial and industrial loans to Japan-based companies as well as a substitute location for interbank trading. In both markets Japanese banking offices are large net barrowers from unrelated banks because of constraints on raising funds in their homer market.     

Changes in Employment and Hours,and Family Income Inequality in the United.States, 1969–1989

This paper estimates how much changes in employment and hours worked for family heads and spouses contributed to the rise in the family income inequality between 1969 and 1989. Change in labor market activity of family heads accounts for half of the increase in the income gap between the top and bottom 10th families. The effect of change in work effort on the income inequality is considerably weaker where four-fifths of families in the middle of income distribution are considered. This result is robust to changes in the selection of the population. The rise in the inequality of labor market activity occurred largely within families headed by prime-age men. The rise in the percentage of families headed by female and the decline in employment rate for older family heads are relatively minor factors. [J2, E2, N3]     

Does site-of-care for oncology infusion therapy influence treatment patterns,cost, and quality in the United States?

Background: The increase in hospital acquisition of community oncology clinics in the US has led to a shift in the site-of-care (SOC) for infusion therapy from the physician office (PO) to the hospital outpatient (HO) setting.

Objective: To investigate differences by SOC in treatment patterns, quality, and cost among patients with cancer undergoing first-line infusion therapy.

Research design and methods: This retrospective analysis identified adult patients from Humana medical claims who initiated infusion therapy from 2008–2012 for five common cancer types in which infusion therapy is likely, including early stage breast cancer; metastatic breast, lung, and colorectal cancers; and non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma or chronic lymphocytic leukemia. Differences by SOC in first-line treatment patterns and quality of care at end-of-life, defined as infusions or hospitalizations 30 days prior to death, were evaluated using Wilcoxon-Rank Sum and Chi-square tests where appropriate. Differences in cost by SOC were evaluated using risk-adjusted generalized linear models.

Main outcome measures: Treatment patterns, quality of care at end of life, healthcare costs.

Results: There were differences in duration of therapy and number of infusions for some therapy regimens by SOC, in which patients in the HO had shorter duration of therapy and fewer infusions. There were no differences in quality of care at end-of-life by SOC. Total healthcare costs were 15% higher among patients in HO ($55,965) compared with PO ($48,439), p?<?.0001.

Limitations: Analyses was restricted to a claims-based population of cancer patients within a health plan.

Conclusion: This study, in an older, predominantly Medicare Advantage oncology cohort, found differences by SOC in treatment patterns and cost, but not quality. Where differences were found, patients receiving care in the HO had shorter duration of therapy and fewer infusions for specific treatment regimens, but higher healthcare costs than those treated in a PO.     

Power,Intergroup Conflicts and Social Stratification in the United States: What has the Global Crisis Taught us?

Abstract

Drawing on early sociological analyses of how power and intergroup conflicts can affect the development of modern economies, this paper investigates how the recent Global Crisis (GC) has affected the stratification of the US society. The paper argues that the consumerist society has reinforced the historical stratification of social identities with white men in high-paid, high-social status managerial and financial occupations at the top, and black women in low-paid, low-status service occupations at the bottom. This paper calls for a deconstruction of the neoliberal individual into a unique combination of identities in a stratified capitalist society in order to reveal how social stratification has evolved during the GC. The paper finally concludes on the importance of heterogeneous identities in reflecting the diversity of societal and economic interests in order to address the issues of financial stability and sustainability at the corporate and societal levels.     

Does consumption buy happiness? Evidence from the United States

We examine the association between various components of consumption expenditure and happiness in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a nationally representative sample of older Americans. We find that only one component of consumption is positively related to happiness—leisure consumption. In contrast, consumption of durables, charity, personal care, food, health care, vehicles, and housing are not significantly associated with happiness. Second, we find that leisure consumption is associated with higher levels of happiness partially through its effect on social connectedness, as indexed by measures of loneliness and embeddedness in social networks. On one hand, these results counter the conventional wisdom that “material goods can’t buy happiness.” One the other hand, they underscore the importance of social goods and social connectedness in the production of happiness.     

Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?

The recovery from the recent global financial crisis exhibited a decline in the synchronization of Asian output with the rest of the world. However, a simple model based on output gaps demonstrates that the decline in business cycle synchronization during the recovery from the global financial crisis was exceptionally steep by historical standards. We posit two potential reasons for this exceptionally steep decline. First, financial markets during this recovery improved from particularly distressed conditions relative to previous downturns. Second, monetary policy during the recovery from the crisis was constrained in developed economies by the zero bound, but less so in Asia. To test these potential explanations, we examine the implications of an increase in corporate bond spreads similar to that which took place during the recent European financial crisis in a three‐region open‐economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. Our results confirm that global business cycle synchronization is reduced when zero‐bound constraints across the world differ. However, we find that the impact of reduced financial contagion actually goes modestly against our predictions.     

A cross-industry analysis of intra-industry trade measurement thresholds: Canada and the United States, 1988–1999

The measurement of intra-industry trade allows for the separation of horizontal from vertical intra-industry trade using thresholds to categorize different types of trade. Using product-level data on Canada–United States international trade and corresponding cross-industry determinants, this study tests the sensitivity of these thresholds finding that previous studies may have incorrectly specified the measurement of intra-industry trade.     

Will Sub-Prime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?

We identify incentives generated by the Bretton Woods II system that may have contributed to the sub-prime liquidity crisis now working its way through the international monetary system. We then evaluate the persistent conjecture that the liquidity crisis is or will become a balance of payments crisis for the United States. Given that it happens, the additional costs associated with a sudden stop of net capital flows to the United States could be quite substantial. But we observe that emerging market governments have continued to acquire US assets even as yields have fallen, and the incentives for continuing to do so remain strong. Moreover, the Bretton Woods II system, which has clearly been the most resilient of the forces driving current markets, continues to generate low real interest rates in industrial countries and growth in emerging markets that will help limit the damage from the liquidity crisis.     

Intraindustry Specialization and the Proposed Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement

Changes in intraindustry specialization indicators over the 2000–2007 period are used to assess factor adjustment pressures that may arise in Korea from the proposed Korea–United States Free Trade Agreement (KORUS FTA). There is considerable scope for intraindustry specialization between Korea and the United States. Results show few industries in Korea are candidates for adjustment problems. The 14 industries that may face adjustment pressures account for 13% of all Korean imports from the United States. Long tariff phase-out periods, tariff-rate quotas and import safeguards will be used to ease factor adjustment pressures in import-sensitive industries.     

Does defence expenditure affect private consumption? Evidence from the United States

This paper empirically discusses the relationship between government defence expenditure and private consumption for the United States. The estimations show a substitution or complementary effect of the military sector on private categories of consumer choices, although sensitivity analysis for different utility functions and sub-samples indicates a time-decrease on substitutability. Our findings are in line with previous results highlighting a weak substitution of defence expenditure on aggregate consumption.     

The Netherlands and the United Kingdom: a European unemployment miracle?

Unemployment rates in both the UK and the Netherlands have declined substantially since the early 1980s. This has been a decline in equilibrium unemployment, the result of combinations of supply-oriented policies. The combinations are partly overlapping and partly differing between the two countries. The main difference is in wage negotiations: where the Dutch unions were already co-operative, British unions were made to co-operate. The main overlap is in the popularity of part-time work and the re-enforcement of financial incentives for work for unemployed workers collecting benefits.     

Uncertainty and the United States’ election effect on the economy: some thoughts and empirical illustrations

This study discusses the general impact of Donald Trump’s election on the US and European economies as well as the effect of this political news on financial markets. To this end, we discuss different hypotheses from a theoretical view and empirically illustrate these thoughts when possible. Our analysis suggests that while the expected Trump measures might boost the US economy in the short term, these actions would have negative long-term consequences in the United States. Further, this new US policy will affect European economies and destabilize financial markets while increasing uncertainty, which could constrain growth and increase the downside risk.     

Inequality and growth in the United States: is there asymmetric response at the state level?

A previous study that tried to assess the impact of economic growth on income inequality in the U.S. used state-level data and an ARDL panel model to conclude that economic growth worsens income inequality in the U.S. In this article, we use the same data set but an ARDL time-series model applied to each state in the U.S. to show that the above conclusion is only valid in 20 states. Additionally, we use a nonlinear ARDL approach to show that the effects are asymmetric in the short run as well as in the long run. Significant long-run asymmetric effects reveal that in 28 states both an increase and a decrease in real output have worsened income distribution.     

Whose policy uncertainty affects commodity trade between Australia and the United States?

Recent studies are assessing the impact of news-based policy uncertainty measure on trade flows between countries. In this paper we add to this new literature by investigating the symmetric and asymmetric effects of Australian policy uncertainty index and the U.S. index on trade flows of 63 two-digit industries that trade between the two countries. When we estimated a symmetric and linear model for each industry, we found short-run effects of both uncertainty measures on 30% of the industries' trade flows. However, this number increased to 70% when an asymmetric and nonlinear model was estimated. The long-run effects of both policy uncertainty followed similar pattern. Less than 10% of trade was affected by the estimates of the linear models. However, estimates of the nonlinear models predicted that 41.20% (26.53%) of the U.S. exports to Australia was affected by the U.S. uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). As for the Australian exports to the United States, 6.72% (5.5%) of its exports were affected by the changes in the U.S. policy uncertainty (Australian uncertainty). In almost all industries, increased uncertainty was found to hurt the trade and decreased uncertainty was found to boost it at different rate or asymmetrically. In sum, the U.S. and Australian policy uncertainty measure affects U.S. exports to Australia much more than they affect Australian exports to the United States.     

Why is the teen birth rate in the United States so high and why does it matter?

Teens in the United States are far more likely to give birth than in any other industrialized country in the world. U.S. teens are two and a half times as likely to give birth as compared to teens in Canada, around four times as likely as teens in Germany or Norway, and almost 10 times as likely as teens in Switzerland. Among more developed countries, Russia has the next highest teen birth rate after the United States, but an American teenage girl is still around 25 percent more likely to give birth than her counterpart in Russia. Moreover, these statistics incorporate the almost 40 percent fall in the teen birth rate that the United States has experienced over the past two decades. Differences across U.S. states are quite dramatic as well. A teenage girl in Mississippi is four times more likely to give birth than a teenage girl in New Hampshire--and 15 times more likely to give birth as a teen compared to a teenage girl in Switzerland. This paper has two overarching goals: understanding why the teen birth rate is so high in the United States and understanding why it matters. Thus, we begin by examining multiple sources of data to put current rates of teen childbearing into the perspective of cross-country comparisons and recent historical context. We examine teen birth rates alongside pregnancy, abortion, and "shotgun" marriage rates as well as the antecedent behaviors of sexual activity and contraceptive use. We seek insights as to why the rate of teen childbearing is so unusually high in the United States as a whole, and in some U.S. states in particular. We argue that explanations that economists have tended to study are unable to account for any sizable share of the variation in teen childbearing rates across place. We describe some recent empirical work demonstrating that variation in income inequality across U.S. states and developed countries can explain a sizable share of the geographic variation in teen childbearing. To the extent that income inequality is associated with a lack of economic opportunity and heightened social marginalization for those at the bottom of the distribution, this empirical finding is potentially consistent with the ideas that other social scientists have been promoting for decades but which have been largely untested with large data sets and standard econometric methods. Our reading of the totality of evidence leads us to conclude that being on a low economic trajectory in life leads many teenage girls to have children while they are young and unmarried and that poor outcomes seen later in life (relative to teens who do not have children) are simply the continuation of the original low economic trajectory. That is, teen childbearing is explained by the low economic trajectory but is not an additional cause of later difficulties in life. Surprisingly, teen birth itself does not appear to have much direct economic consequence. Moreover, no silver bullet such as expanding access to contraception or abstinence education will solve this particular social problem. Our view is that teen childbearing is so high in the United States because of underlying social and economic problems. It reflects a decision among a set of girls to "drop-out" of the economic mainstream; they choose non-marital motherhood at a young age instead of investing in their own economic progress because they feel they have little chance of advancement. This thesis suggests that to address teen childbearing in America will require addressing some difficult social problems: in particular, the perceived and actual lack of economic opportunity among those at the bottom of the economic ladder.