中日韩的FTA进程及其政策比较分析

中国、日本和韩国的FTA已经起步并正在争先恐后、竞争性地加快其速度。其中,日本和韩国迅速地调整和明确了FTA战略,设立专门机构,扩充人员编制,制定相关法规使FTA走向制度化,并加强有关FTA的系统研究,进行可行性论证,为决策提供科学依据。尽管中国作为发展中国家推行投资贸易自由化对国内产业将造成较大的冲击,但还是在积极推进。在这一过程中,中国还缺乏FTA总体战略规划,缺乏FTA经济、社会效果的评价体系和受损产业的补偿办法等的系统研究,更缺乏相关的制度保障等,这些问题亟待解决。     

Factor substitution and import demand for South Korea : A translog analysis

Zusammenfassung Faktorsubstitution und Importnachfrage Südkoreas: Eine Translog Analyse. -Eines der Hauptziele dieser Studie ist es, die Rolle der Importe als Produktionsfaktor in dem “Schwellenland“ Südkorea für die Zeit von 1960 bis 1973 zu untersuchen. Als Ansatz wird eine duale Kostenfunktion benutzt und diese in eine Translog-Kostenfunktion transformiert. Dabei ergibt sich, da\ die Importe tats?chlich als Input in die Produktionsfunktion eingehen. Au\erdem zeigt sich, da\ für Korea zwar zwischen Input und Output unterschieden werden kann, nicht aber die Importe von den prim?ren Inputs getrennt werden k?nnen. Au\erdem werden Zeitreihen für die Eigenpreiselastizit?ten sowie für die Substitutionselastizit?ten der Importe nach Allen berechnet. Alle Inputs (Kapital, Arbeit und Importe) haben die korrekten negativen Eigenpreiselastizit?ten und sind untereinander Substitute.

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Résumé La substitution des facteurs et la demande importatrice de la Corée du Sud: Une analyse translog. —Un des buts primaires de cette étude est d’examiner empiriquement le r?le des importations comme facteur de production dans un des pays récemment industrialisés, la Corée du Sud, pendant la période 1960–1973. En utilisant une approche de la fonction de co?t dual et en appliquant une fonction de co?t translog les auteurs trouvent qu’en fait les importations entrent dans la fonction de production comme facteur d’input. De plus, il est démontré que la séparabilité d’input-output existe pour la Corée, mais que la séparabilité pour les importations des facteurs primaires n’existe pas. De plus, les auteurs calculent des séries chronologiques des propres élasticités de prix et des Allen élasticités de substitution d’ inputs. Tous les inputs (capital, travail et importations) sont des substituts l’un à l’autre et les valeurs des propres élasticités de prix sont, théoriquement correcte, négatives.

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Resumen Sustitución de factores y demanda de importación para Corea del Sur: un anàlisis de tipo translog. -Uno de los propósitos primordiales de este estudio es examinar empiricamente el rol de las importaciones como un factor de producción en uno de los ?países de industrialización reciente?, Corea del Sur, para el período 1960–73. Usando una función de costos dual y empleando una función de costos de tipo translog, encontramos que las importaciones efectivamente se introducen a la función de producción como un factor de insumo. Adicionalmente se muestra que la separabilidad de insumo-producto existe para Corea, pero no la separabilidad de los factores primarios. Además, se calculan series de tiempo de elasticidades de precios propios y elasticidades de sustitución de Allen de insumos. Todos los insumos (capital, trabajo e importaciones) tienen la elasticidad de precio propio negativa teóricamente correcta y son sustitutos entre ellos.

     

Major determinants of the share of manufactures in exports: A cross-section analysis and case study on India

Zusammenfassung Wichtige Determinanten des Fertigwarenanteils an Exporten: Eine L?nderübersicht und eine Fallstudie über-Indien. —Die Variablen Pro-Kopf-Einkommen, Industrialisierungsgrad, Bev?lkerungszahl und -dichte erkl?ren zusammen einen groβen Teil der Unterschiede im Anteil der Fertigwaren an den Gesamtexporten zwischen den einzelnen L?ndern. Die Einflüsse der Variablen auf die Fertigwarenanteile sind positiv. Auβerdem zeigt die Regressiorisanalyse der L?nderstudie, daβ mit der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung das relative Volumen der Fertigwarenexporte der Kategorie SITC-6 abnimmt und dasjenige der Kategorie SITC-7 zunimmt, worin sich die ?nderungen in den komparativen Vorteilen widerspiegeln. In Indien sind die ?nderungen des relativen Umfangs der Fertigwarenexporte verschiedener Gruppen im Zeitablauf ziemlich ?hnlich denjenigen, die in der L?nderquerschnittsanalyse beobachtet werden konnten.

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Resumen Principales déterminantes de la participation de productos industriales en la exportación total: Una comparaci?n internacional y el caso de la India. —Un análisis regresivo con corte transversal saca a relucir que las variables: ingreso per capita y grado de industrialización así como la población y su densidad explican gran parte de las diferencias internacionales con las que productos semi-elaborados y acabados participan en la exportación total de un pals. La asociación entre las variables exógenas y la variable endógena es positiva. Además se demuestra que con el desarrollo económico la importancia relativa de los productos incluídos en CUCI-6 disminuye y la de los productos correspondientes a CUCI-7 alimenta, lo cual refleja cambios en las ventajas comparativas. La aplicación del modelo al caso de la India demuestra que las variaciones de la estructura de exportación en el tiempo son.bastante parecidas a aquéllas que se pueden observar en el corte transversal.

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Résumé Les déterminants majeurs de la part qu’ont les manufactures dans l’exportation: Une analyse internationale et une étude du cas des Indes. — Le—reyenu par tête de population, le degré d’industrialisation, le chiffre et la densité de la internationales dans la part qu’ont les manufactures dans l’exportation. Ces variables population, ces quatre variables ensemble expliquent, en grande partie, les différences y exercent une influence positive. En outre, les régressions internationales démontrent que, avec le développement économique, le volume relatif des exportations de produits’manufacturés delà catégorie SITC-6 diminue, tandis que celui des produits de la catégorie SITC-7 augmente, ce qui reflète les changements dans les avantages comparatifs. Aux Indes, les variations dans les volumes relatifs de l’exportation de produits manufacturés des différentes catégories ressemblent largement à celles de l’analyse internationale.

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Riassunto Importanti determinanti della quota di merci finite per le esportazioni: una visione d’insieme di Paesi e uno studio di un caso preciso sull’India. — Le variabili reddito pro capite, grado di industrializzazione, numéro e densità délia popolazione spiegano irisieme una gran parte delle differenze nella quota dei prodotti finiti per le esportazioni complessive tra i singoli Paesi. Le influenze delle variabili sulle quote di prodotti finiti sono positive. Inoltre l’analisi di regressione dello studio di Paesi mostra che con lo sviluppo economico il volume relativo dell’ esportazione di prodotti finiti delia categoria SITC-6 diminuisce e quello della categoria SITC-7, crescej in cui si riflettono i mutamenti nei comparativi vantaggi. In India, i mutamenti dell’entità relativa delle esportazioni di prodotti finiti di diversi gruppi sono abbastanza simili a quelli che possono essere osservati nell’analisi trasversale di Paesi.

     

中韩资产证券化的比较研究

资产证券化对于提高银行资产流动性,降低融资成本以及提高资本充足率都具有重要作用。2005年底,国家开发银行和中国建设银行分别推出信贷资产支持证券和房贷抵:贷款支持证券,至此,中国真正意义上的资产证券化在经历多年的研究后终于拉开序幕。资产证券化并不是一个陌生的事物,自上个世纪70年代末,美国开始推出资产证券化后,资产证券化便在全球蓬勃发展,成为最有生命力的创新源泉。亚洲金融危机后,资产证券化因其成为处置不良债权的最有效的工具而在亚洲得到快速发展。资产证券化在提高资产流动性、有效配置资源等方面具有无以替代的优势,然而,毋庸置疑,资产证券化在提高流动性的同时,也带来了操作风险、道德风险等各种风险。本文拟分析韩国资产证券化推出的背景、法律环境、资产证券化的特征,为我国进一步推进资产证券化发展确定正确的路径。     

Comparative home-market advantage: An empirical analysis of British and American exports

This paper derives and tests the hypothesis that a country exports relatively more of those goods for which it has a relatively larger home market, i.e., a comparative home-market advantage. This prediction is based on a two-country, many-good intraindustry trade model with economies of scale, international transaction costs and differences in expenditure shares and country size. The data from 1970 to 1987 of 26 industries of the manufacturing sector in the United States and the United Kingdom supports this hypothesis. It is also shown that the relationship between home-market size and export structure becomes significantly stronger for industries with high fixed costs. JEL no. F12, F14, F17     

Trade preferences and exports of manufactures: A case study of Bolivia and Brazil

Trade Preferences and Exports of Manufactures: A Case Study of Bolivia and Brazil. — This paper analyzes the impact of the U.S. Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) on the exports of Bolivia and Brazil, whose levels of economic development differ substantially. While Brazil’s exports under GSP were larger than Bolivia’s, the preferences had a significant impact only on Bolivian exports. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that certain low-income countries have benefitted from trade preferences. Since the GSP is not costly to the U.S. economy, continuation of the program with some modifications to benefit the least developed countries is recommended.     

中韩农村财政补贴政策比较研究

农村的发展离不开政策的支持.韩国的新村运动正是在政府财政资金的大力支持下取得成功的,其独具特色、成效显著的农村财政补贴政策可资借鉴.我国正处于新农村建设初期,农民实力不济,发展动力不足.政府必须充分发挥主导作用,通过制定和执行合理的财政补贴政策,增加农民收入,提高农民生产积极性,以此促进新农村建设进程,实现农村的全面发展.     

日韩两国农村劳动力转移比较分析及其启示

日韩两国在20世纪50年代与中国当前发展形势基本相同,都有着经济社会高速发展的发展基础和农村劳动力非农化发展的客观要求。日韩两国针对农村劳动力转移在政府重视提高农村劳动力素质、优先发展劳动密集型产业、选择合理的转移方式等方面有着共同的特征。因此,中国农村劳动力转移要不断提高农村劳动力素质,同时选择合理的转移方式,既要依靠工业化发展来吸纳部分农村劳动力,也要通过繁荣农村经济实现就地转移就业。     

中日韩与东盟(10+3)税收协调研究

中日韩与东盟经济合作的现状决定了(10 3)国家间区域性税收协调的深度和广度。本文通过分析中日韩与东盟(10 3)区域税收国际协调现状、困难,提出了(10 3)税收国际协调应该遵循的原则,建议应建立中日韩与东盟(10 3)区域税收协调机制,以及消除货物、服务贸易中阻碍商品、人员自由流动、涉及投资所得等税收因素,以促进(10 3)国家间商品、资本、劳务、知识产权等的自由流动。     

外商直接投资对我国进出口贸易影响的协整分析

本文运用协整方法和误差修正模型，考察了外商直接投资对我国进口和出口贸易显著的促进作用；从短期来看，外商直接投资与进出口的关系由短期偏离向长期均衡调整的速度很快。外商直接投资的短期波动对进口的短期变化影响明显，而对出口短期变化影响不显著。     

日韩废弃物处理制度比较分析

中日韩等亚洲国家人口密度高,共同面临着急进的产业化所带来的深刻的环境问题,虽然存在着环境意识、政策水平和制度上的差异,提出发展循环经济的阶段、着眼点和具体举措各不相同,但在国际化、区域化趋势和地缘关系、风俗习惯等方面,内在的和外在的制度彼此趋同。废弃物处理是循环经济的核心问题之一,为了解决经济高速增长以及大量生产、大量消费所带来的大量废弃、资源浪费、生态退化和环境污染等问题,日本和韩国较早开始了废弃物的处理和再利用事业,建立和实施了减少废弃物、最大限度地循环利用必然发生的废弃物、安全处理等相应的制度,结果废弃物的再利用率持续提高,并在实践中积累了丰富的经验。     

Future of Economic Growth for South Korea*

More than 80 percent of US growth between 1950 and 1993 can be attributed to transition dynamics (increases in R&D intensity and educational attainment), with less than 20 percent of growth deriving from population growth. Similarly, growth accounting shows that 80 percent of economic growth in Korea can be attributed to transition dynamics. However, the specific factors that have moved Korea far from its steady state are significantly different from the factors that have done so for the USA. In addition to the growth rates of the two countries, we also analyzed the (steady‐state) level of output per worker to determine where the Korean economy is headed relative to the USA. In 1960, Korea was characterized as poor (0.111) relative to its own steady state (0.765), and incomes were at 11.1 percent of those in the USA. Since then, however, Korea has been growing more rapidly than the USA. In our analysis, we also consider the extreme case where total factor productivity levels converge completely. Interestingly, in this case, the USA and Korea exhibit unconditional convergence similar to what is generally observed in the OECD. As the economy approaches the steady‐state income level, however, the growth rate of output per capita will decline.     

美日韩三国中小企业信用担保体系比较研究及启示

文章指出,中小企业融资难问题长期以来制约我国中小企业的发展,其根源在于我国缺乏针对中小企业融资完善的担保体系。文章通过分析比较美日韩三国中小企业担保体系的特点和运作机制,总结并提出可供我国借鉴的方法和经验。     

基于贸易与投资的中、韩、朝地区经济合作研究

中国已成为朝鲜半岛最重要的经济合作国之一,在地区经济合作中有着良好的基础和条件。本 文分析了中韩朝三国的双边贸易与投资的基本情况及其特点,提出了进一步实现该地区紧密的 经济合作关系的可行性及基本构想。     

Botox and bridges: South African exports of health and construction services

Until relatively recently, policy makers and academics directed little attention to trade in services. This has changed in recognition of the increasing role of services in economic growth, trade and investment. In World Trade Organisation (WTO) and other trade negotiations, discussions on services have become as important a. s., if not more important than, those on trade in goods. Despite the growing contribution of services to exports and economic development, trade in services remains highly regulated, especially in developing countries. This article outlines the main methodological and policy challenges facing developing countries, such as South Africa, in trying to understand the economic implications of service liberalisation. This is achieved largely by means of two case studies of the construction and health services sectors. While the findings are preliminary and the policy conclusions speculative, the article provides some examples of the key analytical difficulties that arise in services analysis. More importantly, it highlights the need for the government to develop integrated service sector strategies that recognise the contribution of trade to development policy and the impact of domestic regulations on trade.     

德国、日本、韩国政策性银行的运作

现代各国银行体系的构成,一般均以中央银行为首,以商业银行为主体,辅以各种专业性银行.政策性银行是各种专业性银行的重要构成部分,其鲜明的性质、独特的地位,在国民经济中往往起到不可替代的作用.当前,中国加入世贸组织、全面提高对外开放度的新形势,为国内政策性银行提供了更加广阔的发展空间.中国政策性银行有必要借鉴国外先进银行的管理技术和方法,找出与国际标准的差距,采取有效措施,加快与国际接轨的步伐.     

An analysis of the determinants of labour force participation and unemployment in South Africa's North-West province

This article uses a probit model to estimate the determinants of labour force participation and unemployment in South Africa's North-West province. Data from three surveys are used, namely the 1993 Saldru survey, the 1995 CSS (now Statistics SA) survey and a survey conducted in 1997 by the authors. It finds that gender, location (rural or urban), education level, and family structure and relations are significant determinants of unemployment in the province. Because the North-West is a rural province, the results are indicative of the unemployment challenges in South Africa's rural areas. Thus, unless job creation initiatives have a specific rural and gender (female) bias, rural unemployment in South Africa may not be significantly reduced.     

Tracing value added in gross exports of China: Comparison with the USA,Japan, Korea,and India based on generalized LMDI

This study first traces value added in gross exports of China during 2000–2014 to four components, namely domestic value added absorbed abroad (DVA), domestic value added return home (RDV), foreign value added (FVA), and pure double-counted terms (PDC), then compares these four components in China's exports with those in exports of the USA, Japan, Korea, and India. Second, this paper proposes a generalized logarithmic mean Divisia index (GLMDI) method and combines additive and multiplicative decomposition to decompose DVA gaps between China and the other four countries into value added coefficient effect, input-output structure effect, domestic scale effect and foreign scale effect. The aggregate value added coefficient effect is then attributed to sectoral level. Results show that DVA always occupied the largest share in the gross exports of China, which ranged from 74.60–82.84% during 2000–2014. Before 2011, DVA share of China's exports was generally the second smallest among five countries; since 2011, DVA share of China's exports increased, and China had the largest DVA share in 2014 (81.39%). Sectors having a large FVA share in China's exports usually had a large DVA share, such as “Mining” (MIN), “Computers, Electronic and Optical” (CEO), and “Basic Metals” (BAS). Additive and multiplicative decomposition analyses indicate that value added coefficients had a negative and increased effect on DVA gaps between China and the other four countries. Attribution analysis revealed that CEO sector had the largest negative value added coefficient effect in comparison between China and the USA, Japan, and Korea and its effect increased in comparison between China and the other four countries. Policy implications derived are finally discussed.     

Tariff and exchange rate pass-through for Chinese exports: A firm-level analysis across customs regimes

We examine whether a firm's import content share differentially affects the degree of tariff and exchange rate pass-through into its export prices. Our pricing-to-market model suggests that a firm's import content share negatively affects the degree of exchange rate pass-through but does not affect the degree of tariff pass-through. Using firm-level data for Chinese exporting firms during the period 2000–2006, we find evidence of an almost complete exchange rate pass-through. As expected, when we distinguish firms by their trade regime, processing-trade firms, especially pure-assembly firms which tend to have higher import-content share, have a lower exchange rate pass-through than ordinary trade firms. We find no evidence that the tariff pass-through differs across the various trade regimes.