Merger Policies and Trade Liberalisation

This paper is about the interactions between trade policy and a narrow but important aspect of competition policy, namely merger policy. We focus on links between merger policies and trade liberalisation. We put special emphasis on the topical issue of the role that international agreements such as the GATT play when merger policies are nationally chosen. Of particular concern is the possibility that liberalisation of international trade will induce countries to use competition policies to promote national interests at the expense of others.     

Trade Liberalisation of Intermediate Inputs

This paper considers the effects of tariff cuts in the intermediate inputs market. Traditional trade theories predict that upstream industries would contract and downstream industries would expand. In contrast, new trade theories show that trade liberalisation of the intermediate inputs market may expand both upstream and downstream industries.     

Global Trade Liberalisation: Coordination and Coherence

Globalisation is a major issue in international debate. The demonstrations in Seattle in 1999 showed that there is a high level of public concern over the growth of world trade and the institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation (WTO), that have key roles in global trade and development. Much of the concern relates to developing countries and their place in the international economy. This article is an edited version of a paper presented by His Excellency Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi as the 2000 David Finch Lecture at the University of Melbourne on 5 July 2000. Dr Supachai is a key player in the development of the international economy and is the next Director General of the WTO. In his article, Dr Supachai addresses many of the concerns relating to globalisation and developing countries. He discusses the key issues facing the WTO and world trade in general, focusing on the need for both coordination and coherence in the development of international economic relations. In particular, he highlights the need for an inclusive approach to international trade liberalisation.     

Does Trade Liberalisation Promote Economic Development?

The last twenty years have seen an extraordinary number of trade liberalisation episodes in developing countries. Some have been voluntary, most have been policy conditioned under the aegis of the Bretton Woods agencies. This paper begins by setting out the background to these trade reform programmes and details their ingredients. It then goes on to review the evidence extant on liberalisation and growth and reports new evidence. The latter suggests that liberalisation does tend to enhance growth, albeit with a lag. The paper concludes with an analysis of the lessons learned from experience with liberalisation in terms of credibility, timing and sequencing.     

Trade and Financial Liberalisation and Endogenous Growth in Bangladesh

This paper empirically explores the joint impact of financial and trade liberalisation on economic growth in Bangladesh using various time series techniques, endogenous growth theory and annual data from 1975–95. Our empirical results are in accordance with the predictions of endogenous growth theory that both financial and trade liberalisation, along with investment in human capital enhance economic growth, suggesting the case for liberalisation of both the financial and trade sectors and suggesting that government initiatives in education policy may expedite economic growth. Results are robust across methodologies. [E52, F43, O11, O53]     

Trade Liberalisation, Closer Economic Relations and Intra-Industry Specialisation

Abstract
Much of the growth in trade among the industrialised countries, and more recently among countries in the Asia-Pacific region, has taken the form of intra-industry trade (HT). Australia has historically had one of the lowest shares of IIT among OECD countries. This article examines how Australia's IIT has changed in the 1980s in response to the process of trade liberalisation and completion of the Closer Economic Relations (CER) pact with New Zealand. HT indexes are estimated for Australia's multilateral and trans-Tasman trade for 1981 and 1991 for 132 industries using data at the 3 and 4-digit level of the Standard International Trade Classification (SITC). The results point to a sharp increase in the share of IIT for both multilateral and trans-Tasman trade. Industries that have undergone the largest reductions in protection levels have increased their shares of IIT quite considerably. Increased intra-industry specialisation suggests that the short-run adjustment costs associated with trade liberalisation are likely to be lower. If IIT continues to grow in response to the ongoing process of internationalisation of the Australian economy, then Australia's prospects for expanding its share of world trade are good.     

Trade Liberalisation and the Trade‐Off Between Growth and the Balance of Payments in Latin America

The broad purpose of trade liberalisation is to raise the rate of growth of countries on a sustainable basis, consistent with the achievement of other macroeconomic objectives. In this article we consider whether trade liberalisation in 17 countries of Latin America has improved the trade‐off between gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the trade balance, allowing the countries to grow faster without sacrificing foreign exchange. We find that in the aftermath of liberalisation, the majority of countries did grow faster, but at the expense of a deteriorating trade balance. Testing formally for the impact of trade liberalisation in a full model of trade balance determination, we find that only in Chile and Venezuela has the trade‐off unequivocally improved. In other countries there has been a significant deterioration or no change. Nine out of the 17 countries have grown faster post‐liberalisation than pre‐liberalisation but, except for Chile and Venezuela, at the expense of a wider trade or current account deficit.     

Agglomeration and Economic Development: Import Substitution vs. Trade Liberalisation

This paper analyses a model of economic development in which international differences in industrial structure and income are caused by the agglomeration of industry in a subset of countries. Economic development may not be a gradual process of convergence by all countries, but instead involve countries moving sequentially from the group of poor countries to the group of rich countries. The role of trade policy in promoting industrialisation is studied. While both import substitution and unilateral trade liberalisation may be 'successful' in attracting industry, they attract different sectors and welfare levels are higher under trade liberalisation.     

Modelling Labour Market Adjustment to Trade Liberalisation in an Industrialising Economy

This paper investigates labour market responses to trade liberalisation in an industrialising country. Short and long run responses of employment and wages are examined using a specific factor trade model, which underpins the empirical work. Employment and wage equations are estimated using dynamic panel techniques for importable and exportable sectors in Mauritius and for a period covering both the pre- and post-liberalisation regimes. The empirical testing finds some support for the theoretical predictions of differential responses between sectors. Incre ases in female participation, however, appear to have dampened the adjustment burdens of liberalisation on importables     

The Effects of Foreign Trade Liberalisation and Financial Flows between Slovenia and the EU after Accession

The new version of the CGE model of the Slovenian economy based on the 1998 SAM was used for simulations of the consequences of further foreign trade liberalisation after 1998 as the outcome of implementation of Free Trade Agreements and the European Agreement, adaptation of the Customs Tariff to the for manufacturing products, adoption of the EU Common External Tariff after the accession of Slovenia to the EU, and estimated transfers between the two budgets. Results obtained show a positive net outcome of Slovenian accession to the EU in the long run. On the other hand, rational behaviour by the government will certainly moderate possible short-run negative effects and improve favourable long-run effects.     

The 1990 Trade Liberalisation Policy of Turkey: An Applied General Equilibrium Assessment

I use a static multi-sector, multi-labour, multi-household Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model for Turkey to show that the trade policy implemented by Turkish policy-makers in the 1990s is not trade diverting. Aggregate welfare rises by 0.6% of the consumer income. Most importantly, since agriculture and traditional the rural income), while urban groups are worse off (-0.5% of the urban income). It is also shown that overall income inequality declines by 1.1-1.7%, and that its main source is the inter-income inequality between urban and rural areas, which decreases by 8.9- 14.7%. [D58, F14, F17]     

The Power Underpinnings,and Some Distributional Consequences,of Trade and Investment Liberalisation in Canada

Criticism of trade and investment liberalisation (TAIL) in North America has drawn attention to weak economic performance, wage-profit redistribution, social dumping and fiscal pressure on government programmes as evidence that the TAIL regime has failed to deliver on some of its key promises. This criticism has been unable, however, to establish satisfactory conceptual and empirical connections between the dramatic distributional changes witnessed in the TAIL era and the institutional reorganisation of power that the TAIL regime entrenched. This article will undertake a quantitative assessment of the Canadian political economy to see who the main beneficiaries of the TAIL era have been, contrasting returns to labour and to capital in the pre-TAIL and TAIL eras. Employing tools from the capital as power framework, two pictures are painted: the first picture examines broad changes in the distribution of income and the second examines differential business performance. The evidence from this inquiry suggests that although the official purpose of TAIL was to enhance the prosperity of all Canadians, this trade deal actually represented – both in its intentions and consequences – a political-economic transformation written by dominant capital for dominant capital.     

Cuba,Trade Dependency and the GATT/WTO System

Cuba sought economic independence from the U.S. and its reliance on sugar exports after its 1959 revolution, but subsequently developed new dependency relationships. In the meantime, Cuba remained inside the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), despite conducting most of its trade outside it. This paper explores the political economy of Cuba’s participation in the GATT and later the World Trade Organization (WTO). Documents show that Cuba sought to use its participation to gain new markets and influence in the developing world. While Cuba has gained little economically from its participation, in recent years it has diversified its exports and trade partners, and its trade interests now align more closely with WTO rules. Economic reforms will be necessary in order for Cuba to benefit.     

试论WTO体制下的贸易保护主义及应对策略

贸易保护主义的愈演愈烈，已对WTO的自由贸易体制造成了冲击。对WTO体制下贸易保护主义的表现及特性进行分析，并提出应对策略，是学术界的重要任务。     

WTO的环境与贸易政策及中国应对策略

人们通常将WTO对中国的影响集中在关税、配额、市场准入和国民待遇等方面 ,这虽然是十分重要的 ,但不够全面。其实 ,作为一种隐蔽性很强的非关税壁垒 ,各个国家的环境与贸易政策往往对中国这样一个发展中国家的出口起着重要制约作用。在当前世界经济增长速度趋缓和贸易保护主义抬头的特殊时期 ,中国要想扩大出口 ,维护自己的贸易利益 ,就必需了解并善于运用WTO的环境与贸易政策。本文考察了WTO处理环境问题的机制 ,分析了WTO有关环境问题的规定对中国的影响 ,就中国的环境政策如何与WTO兼容的问题进行了探讨。     

WTO条件下的国际贸易与消费者保护

加入WTO将为我国的消费者保护带来更多的国际因素，将使我国消费者保护法制与其他WTO成员有关法制之间的矛盾日益显现。如何依据WTO的规定解决保护消费者的法律冲突问题，如何应对由此带来的挑战，已成为当前迫切需要解决的问题，本文提出：应当顺应国际潮流，转变旧的观念，从修改现行消费者保护法规入手，使我国的保护消费者制度适应“入世”后的需要。     

自由贸易保护贸易的理论分析——兼论WTO与中国贸易自由化

在当今贸易自由化的大趋势下,发展中国家应以积极姿态参与世界经济的竞争。作为后进国家,在开放经济的进程中,适应的保护是必要的,但必须是在多边贸易体系的框架下的进行有选择的保护,以提高保护效果。