基于统计分析的主流信用风险模型评价

本文总结了信用风险度量与研究的基本方法和模型,对当前四大主流信用风险模型,从模型概念、模型框架、模型优劣三个角度进行阐述、分析和评价,以期对各模型之间的异同进行综合比较.     

信用风险模型比较研究

信用风险模型在现代金融界正发挥着越来越重要的作用,本文比较了现在主流的被实务界应用的信用风险评估模型,从而来探讨他们所适用的不同的情景,不同的优缺点.总的来说市场化模型和历史模型各有各自的优势,需要根据实际情况进行不同的选择.     

门诊患者满意度指数模型研究

医疗体制的改革,使医疗行业竞争日趋激烈。已经从传统的以医院为中心的卖方市场转向以患者为中心的买方市场。患者满意度已经成为衡量医院医疗服务质量的重要的新型指标,并且越来越被医院重视。本文通过研究国内外相关文献,对SCSB模型、ACSI模型、ECSI模型和CCSI模型进行研究分析,提出了一个新的,适合门诊患者的满意度指数模型。     

国家竞争力模型比较研究

本文比较分析了世界上现有的主要国家竞争力模型理论,并对中国国家竞争力模型的构建作了探讨.     

福建省城乡居民收入差距预测模型比较研究

本文选取福建省1981-2008年间的城乡收入差距值时间序列数据,建立四个时间序列模型进行比较分析,最终确定ARMA模型作为预测模型.并以2006年、2007年和2008年的数据作为检验数据检验该模型预测效果,进一步验证了其预测效果较优,最后利用该模型对福建省2011-2014年城乡收入差距值进行短期外推预测,并给出对策建议.     

对陕西省经济发展若干影响因素的VAR实证分析

本文针对陕西省的经济发展状况,借鉴索罗模型,创新的利用1978—2010年的数据对影响陕西省经济发展的能源、劳动力、资本存量三个因素与产出GDP四者之间进行了VAR实证研究,其脉冲响应函数与方差分解的结果表明对陕西省GDP变动的影响中贡献率最小的是资本存量,说明陕西省的投资环境对投资者的吸引力还不够,以致投资对经济增长的影响不够明显。     

经济政策对我国经济的干预分析影响

通过对我国GDP序列的分析,结合自相关系数和偏自相关系数,建立ARMA模型,运用干预分析方法对此模型进行修正,最终结果表明干预模型减小了预测误差。通过干预影响序列建立起的干预模型,从定量的角度反应了改革开放后的重大经济政策对我国经济产生的影响。     

效率工资模型比较分析

效率工资是现代企业人力资源管理的工资激励制度,本文通过对效率工资原理的简单叙述,总结了效率工资的两个基本假设条件。对效率工资五个模型进行分析,得出效率工资个模型中存在的问题以及理论中存在的不足。     

基于时间序列的股票价格走势分析

随着当代经济的不断发展,金融市场已经成为经济发展的重要部分,而股票市场作为金融市场的重要组成部分,便与国民经济密切相关。对于投资者而言,如何及时了解价格波动从而准确分析股票市场行情,是决策过程中的一个关键问题;对于股票市场的管理者来说,如何把握股市动态,从而营造稳定健康的交易环境,也是一项非常艰巨的任务。因此,更好地了解股市的波动特征,以及从中探索某些规律,对我们学习金融理论和进行金融实践都具有重要的意义。本文以2009-2018年的沪深300指数为例,对ARIMA模型、ARCH模型和AR-GARCH模型进行拟合,比较其在股票价格走势上的优劣,再用通过检验的拟合模型对股价进行一个短期的预测。最后发现AR-GARCH模型对原序列有较好的拟合效果,并且获得了较为精确的预测结果。     

BP神经网络在C2C电子零售商竞争力测量中的应用

本文通过分析BP神经网络在竞争力测量中的优势,介绍通过GUI界面构建竞争力测量模型、训练模型、仿真模型、应用模型的方法,证明了BP神经网络在竞争力测量中的可行性,指出了在使用中应注意的事项。     

基于多目标规划的资本结构优化模型理论研究

企业在选择最佳资本结构时,应兼顾企业的多种目标。从理论研究的角度出发,综合考虑了影响资本结构的各种相关财务因素,构建了基于多目标规划的资本结构优化模型,从理论上解决了最佳资本结构的选择。最后,选取一家上市公司2009年的相关数据,验证了模型的可行性。     

Does Financial Reporting Quality Affect Optimal Capital Structure? Evidence from China

In this study, we investigate the association between financial reporting quality and a firm’s deviation from its optimal capital structure. We find that a firm’s deviation from its optimal capital structure is decreasing in financial reporting quality. The results suggest that high-quality financial reporting helps to reduce a firm’s deviation from its optimal capital structure. In addition, we document that the relationship is intensified in non-SOEs, in which financial reporting quality plays a more crucial role. Furthermore, we find that bank connections diminish the role of financial reporting quality in optimal capital structure. Our results hold when we control for potential endogeneity in financial reporting quality and capital structure decisions. Our study contributes to both financial reporting quality and capital structure literature. We also contribute to the literature on informal contracts in organizational decision-making.     

试论企业最佳资本结构的选择

企业在筹资决策中最佳资本结构的选择对于企业来说是一项非常重要的理财活动。确定最佳资本结构就是使其市场价值的最大化,并不断增加财务杠杆效益。针对影响企业最佳资本结构的行业状况、企业规模、销售收入等诸多因素,企业在选择最佳资本结构时,可采用筹资无差别点法和资本成本比较法,这是最佳资本结构选择的两种有效方法。     

基于公司股票价值最大化的最优资本结构研究——以再生水行业为例

确定最优资本结构对再生水项目的融资和行业发展具有重要的意义。为此采用基于公司股票价值最大化的最优资本结构研究模型,结合上市公司数据对再生水行业的最优资本结构进行实证分析,旨在为再生水行业的项目融资安排提供参考。     

Impacts of short-term interest rates on stock returns and exchange rates: Empirical evidence from EAGLE countries

In this study, we estimate Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) and time-varying structural VAR (TVP-VAR) models for Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey to analyze the impacts of short-term interest rates on stock prices and exchange rates considering the relationships between these variables. BVAR and TVP-VAR models’ estimations indicate that monetary policy decisions of these countries lead to capital movements as well as capital movements may create a considerable amount of variation in exchange and stock markets both in the periods of economic stability and financial crisis. We also reveal that increases in interest rates intending to prevent capital outflows may lead to decrease in stock returns, which in turn may deteriorate the real economic activity in Indonesia, while changes in short-term interest rates in Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey cannot be used as a tool to stabilize the value of their home currencies against the USD. Our study highlights the importance of formulating an optimal monetary policy framework accompanied by macro-prudential polices, which help to reach inflation target and smooth the possible variations in exchange rates and stock prices during economic crisis conditions in Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey.     

Top management team characteristics,R&;D investment and capital structure in the IT industry

This paper is based on agency theory, resource-based and upper-echelons perspectives to examine the relationship between R&D investment and capital structure and the moderating effects of top management team (TMT) characteristics on the financing decisions of R&D investment in small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Using data for SMEs in Taiwan’s IT industry, we find that (1) SMEs involved in R&D activities tend to have lower debt levels and (2) TMT characteristics exert considerable influence on the R&D investment-financial leverage relationship in SMEs. One important implication of the empirical evidence is that for SMEs trying to compete on the basis of innovation, the TMT characteristics significantly influence financing decisions. As innovative activities increase, the selection and development of top executives, who are responsible for choosing an optimal capital structure that could keep financial costs low while providing sufficient financial resources for maintaining a continuous, uninterrupted rate of R&D, is crucial for SMEs.     

The impact of firm and industry characteristics on small firms’ capital structure

We study the impact of firm and industry characteristics on small firms’ capital structure, employing a proprietary database containing financial statements of Dutch small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) from 2003 to 2005. The firm characteristics suggest that the capital structure decision is consistent with the pecking-order theory: Dutch SMEs use profits to reduce their debt level, and growing firms increase their debt position since they need more funds. We further document that profits reduce in particular short-term debt, whereas growth increases long-term debt. We also find that inter- and intra-industry effects are important in explaining small firms’ capital structure. Industries exhibit different average debt levels, which is in line with the trade-off theory. Furthermore, there is substantial intra-industry heterogeneity, showing that the degree of industry competition, the degree of agency conflicts, and the heterogeneity in employed technology are also important drivers of capital structure.     

试析国有企业资本结构重整的原则和模式选择

为适应国有经济战略重组的要求,对国有企业进行大规模的资本结构重整十分必要。国有企业资本结构重整有债务重组、国有股减持等多种模式,立足于国有经济战略重组的目标,在坚持有进有退,循序渐进等原则的基础上,应针对不同的问题来选择相应的重整模式。     

How SME Uniqueness Affects Capital Structure: Evidence From A 1994–1998 Spanish Data Panel

The principal aim of this paper is to test how firm characteristics affect Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) capital structure. We carry out an empirical analysis of panel data of 6482 non-financial Spanish SMEs during the five years period 1994–1998, modelling the leverage ratio as a function of firm specific attributes hypothesized by capital structure theory. Our results suggest that non-debt tax shields and profitability are both negatively related to SME leverage, while size, growth options and asset structure influence positively SME capital structure; they also confirm a maturity matching behaviour in this firm group.     

资本结构理论和企业最优资本结构研究

影响企业资本结构的因素主要包括企业成本与销售稳定性、企业资产结构、偿债能力与现金流量、贷款人与信用评级机构的态度、金融市场动态、资金成本的高低。在对影响资本结构因素进行较为系统全面的考察基础上,得出企业综合成本最低时的资本结构与企业价值最大时的资本结构是一致的,而衡量资本综合成本的指标一般采用企业加权平均资本成本,因此,企业最优资本结构也就是企业加权资本成本最低时的资本结构。