High-dimensional Hawkes processes for limit order books: modelling,empirical analysis and numerical calibration

High-dimensional Hawkes processes with exponential kernels are used to describe limit order books in order-driven financial markets. The dependencies between orders of various types are carefully studied and modelled, based on a thorough empirical analysis. The observation of inhibition effects is particularly interesting, and leads us to the use of non-linear Hawkes processes. Specific attention is devoted to the calibration problem, in order to account for the high dimensionality of the problem and the very poor convexity properties of the MLE. Our analyses show a good agreement between the statistical properties of order book data and those of the model.     

Performance of advanced stock price models when it becomes exotic: an empirical study

Annals of Finance - We calibrate several advanced stock price models to a time series of real market data of European options on the DAX. Via a Monte Carlo simulation, we price barrier down-and-out...     

Limit order books and trade informativeness

In the microstructure literature, information asymmetry is an important determinant of market liquidity. The classic setting is that uninformed dedicated liquidity suppliers charge price concessions when incoming market orders are likely to be informationally motivated. In limit order book (LOB) markets, however, this relationship is less clear, as market participants can switch roles, and freely choose to immediately demand or patiently supply liquidity by submitting either market or limit orders. We study the importance of information asymmetry in LOBs based on a recent sample of 30 German Deutscher Aktienindex (DAX) stocks. We find that Hasbrouck's (1991) measure of trade informativeness Granger causes book liquidity, in particular that required to fill large market orders. Picking-off risk due to public news-induced volatility is more important for top-of-the book liquidity supply. In our multivariate analysis, we control for volatility, trading volume, trading intensity and order imbalance to isolate the effect of trade informativeness on book liquidity.     

Price limit changes,order decisions,and stock price movements: an empirical analysis of the Taiwan Stock Exchange

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - This study examines the relationships among price limit changes, order submission decisions, and stock returns in the Taiwan Stock Exchange....     

Size-related anomalies and stock return seasonality: Further empirical evidence

This study examines, month-by-month, the empirical relation between abnormal returns and market value of NYSE and AMEX common stocks. Evidence is provided that daily abnormal return distributions in January have large means relative to the remaining eleven months, and that the relation between abnormal returns and size is always negative and more pronounced in January than in any other month — even in years when, on average, large firms earn larger risk-adjusted returns than small firms. In particular, nearly fifty percent of the average magnitude of the ‘size effect’ over the period 1963–1979 is due to January abnormal returns. Further, more than fifty percent of the January premium is attributable to large abnormal returns during the first week of trading in the year, particularly on the first trading day.     

Common stock repurchases and market signalling: An empirical study

This paper examines the pricing behavior of securities of firms which repurchase their own shares. The results are consistent with a market in which investors price securities such that expected arbitrage profits are precluded. The results are also consistent with the hypothesis that firms offer premia for their own shares mainly in order to signal positive information, and that the market uses the premium, the target fraction and the fraction of insider holdings as signals in order to price securities around the announcement date. The observation that repurchases via tender offer are followed by abnormal increases in earnings per share and that mainly small firms engage in repurchase tender offers, provides further support for the signalling hypothesis.     

Impact of liquidity on stock returns: an empirical investigation of the Tunisian stock market

This paper investigates the return–liquidity relationship on one Middle East and North Africa frontier market, the Tunisian Stock Exchange (TSE). The findings provide evidence that there is a significant and positive premium for companies with high price impact and low trading frequency. However, Tunisian investors appreciate more low spread stocks. We show, also, a non-linear relation between potential delays of execution and stock returns. In addition, we find that Tunisian investors require a premium to compensate past cumulative illiquidity risk (high price impact, low turnover and high potential delay of execution) over the prior three to 12 months and to compensate past cumulative spread over 12 months. We point out also that these effects are seasonal.     

An empirical analysis of European stock repurchases

In this paper, we examine the share price effects and determinants of share repurchase programs for French, German, Italian, and British firms. Like US firms, we find that German and Italian share repurchases are met with a positive and significant share price response. However, British repurchase announcements exhibit small positive abnormal returns, and abnormal returns for French share repurchases are insignificantly different from zero, both results being quite different from results found in studies of US firms. We also investigate the determinants of the size of the share repurchase program.Our results indicate support for the Undervaluation Hypothesis and the Takeover Deterrence Hypothesis, and provide partial support for the National Investment Opportunity Set Hypothesis. Our results from our analysis of cumulative abnormal returns are also consistent with the Undervaluation, Takeover Deterrence, and National Investment Opportunity Set Hypotheses. However, we do not find support for the Excess Capital Hypothesis, the Intangibility Hypothesis or the Optimal Leverage Ratio Hypothesis.     

Socially responsible investing and stock performance: New empirical evidence for the US and European stock markets

This paper empirically examines the theoretically ambivalent relationship between socially responsible investing (SRI) and stock performance. It contributes to the existing literature by considering both the US and the entire European stock markets and by using consistent world-wide corporate sustainability performance data. Our portfolio analysis from 1998 to 2009 is based on the common four-factor model according to Carhart (1997), which comprises market return, size, value, and momentum factors. We show for the US and the European stock markets that SRI is associated with large-sized firms. The insignificant abnormal stock returns for SRI in both regions are the main result of our paper. Therefore, our study supports the view that SRI stocks are correctly priced by market participants, although we cannot rule out that a corresponding mispricing has existed before the beginning of our observation period in 1998.     

The Japanese stock market and the macroeconomy: An empirical investigation

We investigate the relationship between macroeconomic variables, such as the industrial production index, interest rate and inflation rate, and the stock market, using Toda and Yamamoto (1995)'s vector autoregressions (VAR) specification. The major findings are: (1) macroeconomic variables do Granger cause the stock market variable, while reverse is not so clear. (2) The lagged stock market variable affects its current value but its impact tend to diminish in the long-run. Policy implication we draw is that the price keeping operation by the Japanese government would not work, but appropriate macroeconomic policies would benefit not only the real market but also the stock market.     

An empirical investigation of Yankee stock offerings

This paper examines the operating and investment performance of 100 foreign firms that conduct their initial public offerings (IPOs) in the U.S. (Yankee stock offerings). The uniqueness of these firms is that the U.S. IPOs are their first public equity issue in any market, including the home market. We find significant improvement in the operating performance subsequent to these U.S. IPO events and firms from countries with poor investor protection benefit more. Compared to various benchmarks, unlike the significant underperformance of IPOs documented in many countries, these firms show no significant abnormal long-run stock market performance after 1, 3, or 5 years of seasoning. The findings are consistent with signaling and selective entry hypotheses.     

Volatility increases subsequent to stock splits: An empirical aberration

This paper analyzes the empirical behavior of stock-return volatilities prior to and subsequent to the ex-dates of stock splits. The evidence demonstrates rather unambiguously that there is, on the average, an approximately 30% ‘arbitrary’ increase in the return standard deviations following the ex-date. The increase holds for both daily and weekly data, and it is not temporary. No explanatory confounding variables, such as institutional frictions affecting price observations, have been identified. We view the findings as being essentially inconsistent with the notion of ‘rational pricing’.     

Centralised order books versus hybrid order books: A paired comparison of trading costs on NSC (Euronext Paris) and SETS (London Stock Exchange)

This article compares the cost of trading large capitalisation equities on the hybrid order-driven segment of the London Stock Exchange and the centralised electronic order book of Euronext. Using samples of stocks matched according to economic sector, free float capitalisation, and trading volume, our study shows that transaction costs are lower on the centralised order book than on the hybrid order book. The presence of dealers outside the electronic order book favours the frequency of large trades, but is associated with higher execution costs for all other trades and higher adverse selection and inventory costs inside the order book.     

Revisiting the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume

This paper investigates whether the empirical linkages between stock returns and trading volume differ over the fluctuations of stock markets, i.e., whether the return–volume relation is asymmetric in bull and bear stock markets. Using monthly data for the S&P 500 price index and trading volume from 1973M2 to 2008M10, strong evidence of asymmetry in contemporaneous correlation is found. As for a dynamic (causal) relation, it is found that the stock return is capable of predicting trading volume in both bear and bull markets. However, the evidence for trade volume predicting returns is weaker.     

传闻消息对我国上市公司股价影响的实证分析

本文通过有关我国上市公司的传闻消息对上市公司股价影响的实证分析,得出在消息公布日前2天以及后3天的时间段里,传闻消息对股价有正影响,从而给投机者带来了非正常收益,但是从长期来看,传闻消息不会给投资者带来任何非正常收益。另外,通过对各类传闻消息对股价影响的进一步分析,发现在诸类传闻消息中,主力类传闻对上市公司股价的影响最为显著,能给投机者带来很大的非正常收益。     

The cross-market information content of stock and bond order flow

In this paper I test the hypothesis that trading activity in the stock and bond markets contains important marketwide pricing information. Using a large sample of actively traded stocks and U.S. Treasury securities, I find that aggregate order imbalances play a strong role in explaining cross-market returns. I interpret this as evidence that aggregate order flow reveals information about the risk preferences, beliefs, and endowments of the investor population that is relevant for pricing securities in both markets. I also find evidence that cross-market hedging is an important source of linkages across the two markets, especially during periods of elevated equity volatility.     

The empirical relationship between risk and return: evidence from the UK stock market

Previous studies reach no consensus on the relationship between risk and return using data from one market. We argue that the world market factor should not be ignored in assessing the risk-return relationship in a partially integrated market. Applying a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) model to the weekly stock index returns from the UK and the world market, we document a significant positive relationship between stock returns and the variance of returns in the UK stock market after controlling for the covariance of the UK and the world market return. In contrast, conventional univariate GARCH-M models typically fail to detect this relationship. Nonnested hypothesis tests supplemented with other commonly used model selection criteria unambiguously demonstrate that our bivariate GARCH-M model is more likely to be the true model for UK stock market returns than univariate GARCH-M models. Our results have implications for empirical assessments of the risk-return relationship, expected return estimation, and international diversification.     

Corporate demand for insurance: Some empirical and theoretical results

While risk aversion explains individual consumer demand for insurance, it does not explain the corporate demand for insurance. Studies have suggested a variety of incentives that motivate corporations to purchase insurance. We find that the primary motivation for corporate insurance purchases can be explained by the bondholder's me-first rule. In return for insurance, bondholders will charge stockholders a lower cost of debt, thereby increasing firm value.