A hyperbolic diffusion model for stock prices

In the present paper we consider a model for stock prices which is a generalization of the model behind the Black–Scholes formula for pricing European call options. We model the log-price as a deterministic linear trend plus a diffusion process with drift zero and with a diffusion coefficient (volatility) which depends in a particular way on the instantaneous stock price. It is shown that the model possesses a number of properties encountered in empirical studies of stock prices. In particular the distribution of the adjusted log-price is hyperbolic rather than normal. The model is rather successfully fitted to two different stock price data sets. Finally, the question of option pricing based on our model is discussed and comparison to the Black–Scholes formula is made. The paper also introduces a simple general way of constructing a zero-drift diffusion with a given marginal distribution, by which other models that are potentially useful in mathematical finance can be developed.     

A simulation-based algorithm for American executive stock option valuation

We present an algorithm that merges a certainty-equivalence framework with the least-squares Monte Carlo algorithm to obtain the executive stock option (ESO) value for a risk-averse and undiversified agent. We account for the difference between executive’s value and firm cost of the ESO. We show how early-exercise decisions depend on executive’s preferences and its diversification degree. Because of the algorithm flexibility, it allows for multiple state-variables. As an example, we consider the case of indexed ESOs revealing a significant improvement in terms of executive’s discount respect to fixed strike ESOs.     

A second-order stock market model

A first-order model for a stock market assigns to each stock a return parameter and a variance parameter that depend only on the rank of the stock. A second-order model assigns these parameters based on both the rank and the name of the stock. First- and second-order models exhibit stability properties that make them appropriate as a backdrop for the analysis of the idiosyncratic behavior of individual stocks. Methods for the estimation of the parameters of second-order models are developed in this paper.     

Firm value and investment policy around stock for stock mergers

We study a sample of publicly traded firms that expand by acquiring other firms in pure, stock-for-stock mergers. After these mergers, we find that the diversification premium decreases for the acquiring firm due to having added a target firm trading at a discount. Furthermore, the acquiring firm experiences a decrease in investment opportunities and a decrease in leverage. This is an effect confined only to non-diversifying mergers. Our results indicate that the acquirer’s investment efficiency at the firm level remains unchanged after the merger.     

A multi-country test of the Fisher model for stock returns

This article provides a test of the Fisher model, linking expected stock returns and inflation, based on international data. Since the Fisher model is ‘universal’ and calls for a slope of 1 in any country, we improve the testing power by conducting a joint test over eight countries. The pooling of data for several countries seems to reduce the small-sample bias. We test the Fisher model, using an instrumental variable approach, for holding-period horizons ranging from 1–12 months. The Fisher model is not rejected at any horizon: however, the magnitude of the slope coefficient lends stronger support at long horizons. This study using multi-country panel data provides evidence corroborating the finding of Boudoukh and Richardson (1993) that the Fisher model holds at long horizons (5 years), using 180 years of US data.     

A Bayesian analysis of a variance decomposition for stock returns

We apply Bayesian methods to study a common vector autoregression (VAR)-based approach for decomposing the variance of excess stock returns into components reflecting news about future excess stock returns, future real interest rates, and future dividends. We develop a new prior elicitation strategy, which involves expressing beliefs about the components of the variance decomposition. Previous Bayesian work elicited priors from the difficult-to-interpret parameters of the VAR. With a commonly used data set, we find that the posterior standard deviations for the variance decomposition based on these previously used priors, including “non-informative” limiting cases, are much larger than classical standard errors based on asymptotic approximations. Therefore, the non-informative researcher remains relatively uninformed about the variance decomposition after observing the data. We show the large posterior standard deviations arise because the “non-informative” prior is implicitly very informative in a highly undesirable way. However, reasonably informative priors using our elicitation method allow for much more precise inference about components of the variance decomposition.     

A network perspective of the stock market

Complex networks are constructed to study correlations between the closing prices for all US stocks that were traded over two periods of time (from July 2005 to August 2007; and from June 2007 to May 2009). The nodes are the stocks, and the connections are determined by cross correlations of the variations of the stock prices, price returns and trading volumes within a chosen period of time. Specifically, a winner-take-all approach is used to determine if two nodes are connected by an edge. So far, no previous work has attempted to construct a full network of US stock prices that gives full information about their interdependence. We report that all networks based on connecting stocks of highly correlated stock prices, price returns and trading volumes, display a scalefree degree distribution. The results from this work clearly suggest that the variation of stock prices are strongly influenced by a relatively small number of stocks. We propose a new approach for selecting stocks for inclusion in a stock index and compare it with existing indexes. From the composition of the highly connected stocks, it can be concluded that the market is heavily dominated by stocks in the financial sector.     

股指期货会计处理

股指期货作为衍生金融工具,其确认和计量的具体账务处理,涉及新的《金融工具确认和计量》、《金融资产转移》、《套期保值》和《金融工具列报》等几个准则及其应用指南,以及应用指南所附＂会计科目和主要账务处理”的“衍生工具”、“套期工具”等若干会计科目的使用说明。     

A model for stock market returns: non-Gaussian fluctuations and financial factors

While there are various theories to account for the large variations in stock prices, some observed statistical aspects require further analysis. A model is proposed for aggregate stock prices, based on observed data, rather than any efficient market hypothesis, and considering jumps in statistical parameters between phases of generally increasing, or generally decreasing, aggregate stock prices. The model relates a critical parameter for short-term behaviour directly to financial factors, especially interest rates, to explain large short-term variations which follow a non-Gaussian distribution. Economic fundamentals may affect changes over longer periods.      

股市超涨内因分析

中国证券市场超涨和超跌的体制根源在于政府的行政管制,在于企业“资本自主权”的缺失。“资本自主权”的缺失导致企业缺乏资本的自我调节能力,进而导致资本市场自我调节能力的丧失。     

Competition among stock exchanges for equity

We consider cross-border competition by stock exchanges for listings from firms that have controlling shareholders who have private benefits. We examine exchanges’ choices of their listing standards and firms’ choices of the exchanges where they cross-list their shares. We show that the share price compensates controlling shareholders for giving up some private benefits and enables firms with growth opportunities to obtain listings on exchanges with different listing standards. In particular, firms with high-growth opportunities tend to obtain listings on stock exchanges with high listing standards. We empirically examine these predictions and find that they are consistent with evidence.     

A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages

We employ spatial econometrics techniques to investigate to what extent countries’ economic and geographical relations affect their stock market co-movements. Among the relations that we analyze, bilateral trade proves to be best suited to capture co-variations in returns. We find a strong effect of a unit shock to three regionally dominant countries, namely the US, the UK, and Japan, on other countries through the trade linkage. The degree of stock market dependence increases and the importance of proximity decreases over time and during recessions. We also analyze several regional crises and find a large impact of Thailand on its trade neighbors during the Asian crisis.     

A+H模式:众说纷纭

到资本市场去,是一些有实力的中国企业的当然选择,但是长期以来,面临的是到海外上市还是留在内地上市问题.走出去还是留下来,这是一个争论了若干年的问题.     

A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns

In questioning Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi’s (2003) finding of an economically and statistically significant seasonal affective disorder (SAD) effect, Kelly and Meschke (2010) make errors of commission and omission. They misrepresent their empirical results, claiming that the SAD effect arises due to a “mechanically induced” effect that is non-existent, labeling the SAD effect a “turn-of-year” effect (when in fact their models and ours separately control for turn-of-year effects), and ignoring coefficient-estimate patterns that strongly support the SAD effect. Our analysis of their data shows, even using their low-power statistical tests, there is significant international evidence supporting the SAD effect. Employing modern, panel/time-series statistical methods strengthens the case dramatically. Additionally, Kelly and Meschke represent the finance, psychology, and medical literatures in misleading ways, describing some findings as opposite to those reported by the researchers themselves, and choosing selective quotes that could easily lead readers to a distorted understanding of these findings.     

Indexing government stock: A fund manager's view

Two major changes affecting local authorities in London are scheduled to be implemented in the next couple of years, namely the poll tax and the abolition of the Inner London Education authority. Some inner London authorities will be worse off as a result.     

Testing stock market linkages for Poland and Hungary: A multivariate GARCH approach

This paper examines the linkages between the emerging stock markets in Warsaw and Budapest and the established markets in Frankfurt and the U.S. By using a four-variable asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model, we find evidence of returns and volatility spillovers from the developed to the emerging markets. However, as the estimated time-varying conditional covariances and the variance decompositions indicate limited interactions among the markets, the emerging markets are weakly linked to the developed markets. The implication is that foreign investors may benefit from the reduction of risk by adding the stocks in the emerging markets to their investment portfolio.     

Price discovery in the U.S. stock and stock options markets: A portfolio approach

Option prices vary with not only the underlying asset price, but also volatilities and higher moments. In this paper, we use a portfolio of options to seclude the value change of the portfolio from the impact of volatility and higher moments. We apply this portfolio approach to the price discovery analysis in the U.S. stock and stock options markets. We find that the price discovery on the directional movement of the stock price mainly occurs in the stock market, more so now than before as an increasing proportion of options market makers adopt automated quoting algorithms. Nevertheless, the options market becomes more informative during periods of significant options trading activities. The informativeness of the options quotes increases further when the options trading activity generates net sell or buy pressure on the underlying stock price, even more so when the pressure is consistent with deviations between the stock and the options market quotes. JEL Classification C52, G10, G13, G14