Price clustering on the limit-order book: Evidence from the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong

We examine the clustering pattern in trade and quote prices on the electronic limit order book of the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong (SEHK). Earlier research into clustering focuses on transaction prices only. We study clustering on quote prices over a maximum of five queues on the limit order book. We observe an abnormally high frequency of even and integer prices in trade and quote prices for all tick size groups on the SEHK. The deeper quotes display stronger clustering than the best quotes, indicating that the farther away the quotes are from the best queue, the less information they carry. Our analysis further reveals that an extremely fine tick size itself works as a binding constraint to hinder the price resolution process. We also find that short sale prohibition imposed on the majority of stocks listed on the SEHK causes a significant bias in clustering towards the ask side of the limit order book. This implies that a short sale prohibition impairs efficient price discovery in the market.     

Nuclear power in Britain: The case for a new approach

Recent criticisms point to the way British nuclear policy has been made up of a succession of poor decisions badly arrived at. But these criticisms do not go to the heart of the matter. A new approach is needed to decision‐taking in this area, and in energy policy as a whole.     

The price of power: The valuation of power and weather derivatives

Pricing contingent claims on power presents numerous challenges due to (1) the unique behavior of power prices, and (2) time-dependent variations in prices. We propose and implement a model in which the spot price of power is a function of two state variables: demand (load) and fuel price. In this model, any power derivative price must satisfy a PDE with boundary conditions that reflect capacity limits and the non-linear relation between load and the spot price of power. Moreover, since power is non-storable and demand is not a traded asset, the power derivative price embeds a market price of risk. Using inverse problem techniques and power forward prices from the PJM market, we solve for this market price of risk function. During 1999–2001, the upward bias in the forward price was as large as $50/MWh for some days in July. By 2005, the largest estimated upward bias had fallen to $19/MWh. These large biases are plausibly due to the extreme right skewness of power prices; this induces left skewness in the payoff to short forward positions, and a large risk premium is required to induce traders to sell power forwards. This risk premium suggests that the power market is not fully integrated with the broader financial markets.     

The power of accounting: a field study of local financial management in a police force

This paper describes the introduction of management accounting change in the form of local financial management in a police force, West Mercia Constabulary, using an ethnographic study. The study applies institutional theory to understand the context, process and consequences of the introduction of devolved budgeting systems to the organization.The field study explains how the devolution of budgets in West Mercia was accompanied by a shift in power that helped to reconcile the interests of those pursuing a legitimating accountability with those who prioritized operational policing.This paper makes two contributions to institutional theory. First, is the development of understanding of relations of power, particularly where interests coincide and shifts in power are a by-product of legitimating processes. Second, is an explanation of how loose coupling can take place through accounting, in which a devolved budget can satisfy both institutional and technical demands.     

Influence of perceptual metrics on customer profitability: The mediating effect of behavioural metrics

Accountability of marketing actions is a topic of ongoing interest. In accordance with the growing importance of the subject, a multitude of customer metrics has been developed intended to measure and value marketing investments and link their returns to financial results and performance. Managers widely acknowledge the need for quantitative measures of marketing performance but now face the challenge of deciding which metrics to measure and how to interpret them. One of the main difficulties lies in the interdependencies of metrics. Those interdependencies may lead to serious misinterpretation and have been widely neglected in the existing literature. Therefore, this study empirically tests if the influence of customer perceptual metrics (for example, customer satisfaction) on customer profitability persists when customer behavioural metrics are considered. We use data from a large European financial service provider. Our findings support the relevance of mediating effects of customer behavioural metrics (for example, cross-selling ratio) on the relationship between customer perceptual metrics and customer profitability. The article contributes significantly to the body of knowledge about interdependencies between different customer metric combinations by considering direct and indirect links, testing for mediator effects, and evaluating their impact on customer profitability.     

The changing technological environment and the future of behavioural research in accounting

In an era where the pace of change continues to escalate, behavioural research provides an ongoing avenue for explaining the likely effects of emergent changes on decision‐making by providers, users and assurers of accounting information, and for providing ex ante enlightenment for policy‐makers. The purpose of this discussion is to identify contemporary changes affecting the accounting environment, discuss the potential impact to individual and organisational decision‐making, and explore how behavioural research can be utilised to examine these changes. Specifically, this discussion focuses on the impact that technological changes have had on financial reporting, external auditing and managerial accounting, with an eye towards the potential for these changes to radically alter the future of accounting and auditing research.     

Restructuring economic and financial power : The potential role of a foreign exchange-transaction levy

National fiscal and monetary policies are dominated by financial markets, and the obsession of these markets with inflation is forcing governments to neglect other crucial economic and social goals such as growth of employment and reduction of poverty. Exchange rate volatility also adds to business costs and risk. Introduction of a small international levy on foreign exchange transactions would reduce short-term speculation and so the power of the markets to influence interest rates and to destabilize exchange rates. Revenue from the levy would be of benefit to both national governments and the UN for disaster relief, development and strengthened security programmes. Support for the levy is growing.     

社会改革过程中国家权力作用机制——以商鞅变法为例

商鞅变法是中国古代较为成功的一次社会改革,其成功原因各说纷纭,文章从国家权力角度进行了探讨,并得出了是最高统治者的支持给了商鞅运用各种形式权力的权限,对权威力的运用使秦民不得不服,对影响力的运用使秦民心服口服,对强制力的运用使秦民因恐惧而服,才是商鞅变法能够成功的真正原因.     

The initial private placement of equity and changes in operating performance in Taiwan

We propose the corporate governance hypothesis which suggests that the outside blockholders arising from the private placement of equity are more likely to have a significantly positive effect on firms with poor corporate governance. Using a sample of Taiwan‐listed firms with initial private placements of equity, our study’s results indicate that an improvement in operating performance is more likely to be seen after a private placement for those firms that are without independent directors, are controlled by a family, have lower insider shareholdings or are characterized by a pyramidal ownership structure. These findings are consistent with our hypothesis.     

The power of collective ambition

In the past few years, some companies have not just weathered the economic storm: They've emerged stronger than ever. How did such players as Four Seasons, Sephora, and Standard Chartered Bank defy conventional logic? Instead of pursuing a single ambition, such as profits, employees defined a collective ambition. As a result, those organizations deepened their engagement with employees and other stakeholders and became sustainably profitable. Purpose, a company's reason for existence, is the central element of collective ambition. The other elements--vision, targets and milestones, strategic and operational priorities, brand promise, core values, and leader behaviors--must be aligned to serve the company's purpose. Articulating the elements of collective ambition can give everyone in the organization a better sense of the company's purpose and how they can contribute to it. Purpose does not have to be about saving the world; providing excellent entertainment or banking services is just as meaningful a purpose as improving health care in emerging economies--as long as it is an authentic representation of why the company exists. To shape and then achieve a collective ambition, companies must strengthen their organizational glue (the collaborative engagement that creates a unified culture) and grease (the disciplined execution that enterprisewide change initiatives require).     

Apple's financial success: The precariousness of power exercised in global value chains

The topic of this paper is the Apple Inc business model and how, in a financialized world, the success of this business model is represented by what we term financial ‘point values’. Our argument is that there is a tendency to promote specific point valuation multiples as measures of success, but these values, by their nature, do not reveal the contingent and variable nature of the power relations exercised in and along global supply chains. Firms such as Apple exploit their resources and capabilities to ‘create value’ but also exercise power to recalibrate relationships with suppliers in the value chain to secure ‘value capture’ for financial transformation. Value capture is an active ingredient that can help inform our understanding of the fragility of the Apple business model value proposition and frame a critical argument regarding the precarious nature and sustainability of Apple's substantial profit margins.     

The explanatory power of trading volume and insider activity in a pari-mutuel betting market

In this paper, we examine the role played by the holders of privileged information (insiders) in stimulating trading volume which adds explanatory power to a price-based model of returns in a market where the actions of insiders can be isolated – a pari-mutuel betting market. We conduct conditional logit analyses based on data relating to 19,164 horses running in 2078 races (49 racetracks) staged across the UK between 1 June and 31 August 1996. These analyses indicate that prices generally fail to incorporate fully information contained in trading volumes. However, the betting public fully discounts volume information in markets most commonly viewed as attracting bets from insiders. Isolation of the actual degree of insider activity sheds light on the variation in volume effects.     

Forging relationships with services: The antecedents that have an impact on behavioural outcomes in the life insurance industry

The extent to which service quality is linked to satisfaction, value and behavioural outcomes continues to be debated in the literature. This research investigated two models involving the linkages between service quality, satisfaction, perceived value, repurchase intention and willingness to recommend to others. The life insurance industry was chosen as the industry for investigation since it is virtually a pure service with little tangibility and high credence properties. Data were collected in Singapore in response to concerns about broadening understanding of these variables cross-culturally. Results of path analysis indicate that service quality has an indirect relationship with behavioural outcome measures via satisfaction and value. The study found that satisfaction was positively associated with customers' re-purchase intentions but its relationship with customers' willingness to recommend to others was relatively weak. This finding has important marketing implications as word-of-mouth has previously been found to have significant influence on customers' purchase decisions.     

The power of bad: The negativity bias in Australian consumer sentiment announcements on stock returns

This paper examines the equity market reaction to the monthly release of Australian consumer sentiment news. Our results indicate that consumer sentiment has valuable information content. Further, we document a version of the “negativity effect” (from the psychology literature) in which, upon announcement of bad (good) sentiment news, the equity market experiences a significant negative (no) announcement day effect. Notably, we find that the market recovers from the bad news shock relatively quickly post-announcement. The results are robust to a broad range of additional tests.     

Selecting credit rating models: a cross-validation-based comparison of discriminatory power

In commercial banking, various statistical models for corporate credit rating have been theoretically promoted and applied to bank-specific credit portfolios. In this paper, we empirically compare and test the performance of a wide range of parametric and nonparametric credit rating model approaches in a statistically coherent way, based on a ‘real-world’ data set. We repetitively (k times) split a large sample of industrial firms’ default data into disjoint training and validation subsamples. For all model types, we estimate k out-of-sample discriminatory power measures, allowing us to compare the models coherently. We observe that more complex and nonparametric approaches, such as random forest, neural networks, and generalized additive models, perform best in-sample. However, comparing k out-of-sample cross-validation results, these models overfit and lose some of their predictive power. Rather than improving discriminatory power, we perceive their major contribution to be their usefulness as diagnostic tools for the selection of rating factors and the development of simpler, parametric models.

Valuation of a spark spread: an LM6000 power plant

This paper analyzes a power plant powered by two General Electric LM6000 gas turbines combined with a steam generator that allows combined cycle operations. We consider four distinct operating modes for the plant. Such a plant can be characterized as a real option on a spark spread: optimally converting natural gas to electricity. We use a Margrabe approach by using the market heat rate (the ratio of the electricity price to the natural gas price) as our underlying stochastic variable. We estimate a stochastic model for market heat rates that incorporates time of day, day of week, month, and the incidence or otherwise of a spike in heat rates. We use the model and its residuals in a bootstrap process simulating future market heat rates, and use a least-squares Monte Carlo approach to determine the optimal operating policy. We find that the annual average market heat rate is a good explanatory variable for the time integral of the plant operating margin, denominated in the natural gas numeraire. This allows us to express plant values in terms of the numeraire and convert to dollars by multiplying this by the natural gas forward curve and a forward curve of riskless discount rates. We also provide information about the optimal operating modes selected, the number of transitions between modes and how they relate to transition costs and the average heat rate for the year.     

Proving regularity of the minimal probability of ruin via a game of stopping and control

We reveal an interesting convex duality relationship between two problems: (a) minimizing the probability of lifetime ruin when the rate of consumption is stochastic and the individual can invest in a Black–Scholes financial market; (b) a controller-and-stopper problem, in which the controller controls the drift and volatility of a process in order to maximize a running reward based on that process, and the stopper chooses the time to stop the running reward and pays the controller a final amount at that time. Our primary goal is to show that the minimal probability of ruin, whose stochastic representation does not have a classical form as does the utility maximization problem (i.e., the objective’s dependence on the initial values of the state variables is implicit), is the unique classical solution of its Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation, which is a non-linear boundary-value problem. We establish our goal by exploiting the convex duality relationship between (a) and (b).