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1.
Parameter estimation and statistical inference are challenging problems for stochastic volatility (SV) models, especially those driven by pure jump Lévy processes. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is usually preferred when a parametric statistical model is correctly specified, but traditional MLE implementation for SV models is computationally infeasible due to high dimensionality of the integral involved. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a gradient-based simulated MLE method under the hidden Markov structure for SV models, which covers those driven by pure jump Lévy processes. Gradient estimation using characteristic functions and sequential Monte Carlo in the simulation of the hidden states are implemented. Numerical experiments illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.  相似文献   

2.
Maximum likelihood estimation of discretely observed diffusion processes is mostly hampered by the lack of a closed form solution of the transient density. It has recently been argued that a most generic remedy to this problem is the numerical solution of the pertinent Fokker–Planck (FP) or forward Kolmogorov equation. Here we expand existing work on univariate diffusions to higher dimensions. We find that in the bivariate and trivariate cases, a numerical solution of the FP equation via alternating direction finite difference schemes yields results surprisingly close to exact maximum likelihood in a number of test cases. After providing evidence for the efficiency of such a numerical approach, we illustrate its application for the estimation of a joint system of short-run and medium-run investor sentiment and asset price dynamics using German stock market data.  相似文献   

3.
Recent empirical research shows that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks around the world. This study documents that the volatility effect is associated with the quality of the firm using a large sample of international stocks. First, adding a quality factor to the Fama–French model contributes to the explanation of the volatility effect. Furthermore, the negative volatility–return relation is shown to be stronger and significant only among high quality firms which are profitable and have stable cash flows. Second, a fundamental investment strategy that goes long high quality firms and short low quality firms performs like a volatility strategy and cannot be explained by common asset pricing models. However, a low–high volatility factor adds to the explanation of the return difference between high and low quality stocks as volatility and quality strategies have a common component.  相似文献   

4.
In this paper we study the ruin probability at a given time for liabilities of diffusion type, driven by fractional Brownian motion with Hurst exponent in the range (0.5, 1). Using fractional Itô calculus we derive a partial differential equation the solution of which provides the ruin probability. An analytical solution is found for this equation and the results obtained by this approach are compared with the results obtained by Monte-Carlo simulation.  相似文献   

5.
Brownian motion has been extensively applied in the field of mathematical finance in modeling the stochastic processes of returns on securities. In this paper basic and generalized Langevin Equations with memory are used to augment Brownian motion to capture the well stylized facts of the financial market that frictions and imperfect information exist. The operator method of Fourier-Laplace transform with an appropriate kernel (influence function) is used to circumvent the difficulty associated with solving a time dependent nonlinear differential Equation, and a practical computational method is proposed.From the Langevin Equation, autocorrelation of the return process and the deviation of the return distribution from an ideal Brownian motion are extracted. It is also proven that the time-dependent differential Equation has a unique solution and that it is much more generalized than a martingale Brownian motion functional.  相似文献   

6.
We propose a functional approach to estimate the instantaneous price impact of a trade and to infer an implied true price. Our model expresses price impact as an S-shaped function of signed volume. It has two parameters, one for price impact and one for liquidity depth. The latter measures the differential impact of small and large trades. The price impact is instantaneous, that is, it occurs at the instant of trade execution. Our specification also permits the price impact of buys and sells to be asymmetric. We compute an implied true price from our model, and we find that it is closer than the quote midpoint to the unobservable true price. Our empirical analysis also shows that the effective spread, which is computed using the midpoint, has an upward bias, and that the implicit transaction costs may be lower than previous estimates.  相似文献   

7.
We present a generalization of Cochrane and Saá-Requejo’s good-deal bounds which allows to include in a flexible way the implications of a given stochastic discount factor model. Furthermore, a useful application to stochastic volatility models of option pricing is provided where closed-form solutions for the bounds are obtained. A calibration exercise demonstrates that our benchmark good-deal pricing results in much tighter bounds. Finally, a discussion of methodological and economic issues is also provided.   相似文献   

8.
The pattern of price dispersion across European and US cities from 1990 to 2004 is documented. There is a striking decline in dispersion for traded goods prices in Europe, most of which took place prior to the launch of the euro. Dispersion in the euro area is now quite close to that of the USA. This evidence provides useful facts for future work assessing the importance of various developments in Europe: harmonization of tax rates, convergence of incomes and labor costs, liberalization of trade and factor markets, and increased coherence of monetary policy.  相似文献   

9.
We use realized volatility to study the influence of Japanese central bank interventions on the yen-to-dollar exchange rate. A system of equations for returns, logarithmic realized volatility, and interventions provides a comprehensive view on the problem without endogeneity bias, unlike earlier latent variable specifications. We find that during the period 1991 through 1995, interventions of the Japanese monetary authorities could not move the yen-to-dollar rate into the desired direction. We measure an increase in volatility associated with interventions. During the period 1995 through 1998, the estimations are consistent with interventions that successfully influenced returns. After 1998 up to the last intervention episode in 2004, interventions did not have a significant impact on returns but reduced realized exchange rate volatility.  相似文献   

10.
This paper presents a new approach for developing a Strategic Early Warning System aiming to better detect and interpret weak signals. We chose the milk market as a case study, in line with the recent call from the EU Commission for governance tools which help to better address such highly volatile markets. Furthermore, on the first of April 2015, the new Common Agricultural Policy ended quotas for milk, which led to a milk crisis in the EU. Thus, we collaborated with milk experts to get their inputs for a new model to analyse the competitive environment. Consequently, we constructed graphs to represent the major factors that affect the milk industry and the relationships between them. We obtained several network measures for this social network, such as centrality and density. Some factors appear to have the largest major influence on all the other graph elements, while others strongly interact in cliques. Any detected changes in any of these factors will automatically impact the others. Therefore, scanning ones competitive environment can allow an organisation to get an early warning to help it avoid an issue (as much as possible) and/or seize an opportunity before its competitors. We conclude that Strategic Early Warning Systems as a corporate foresight approach utilising graph theory can strengthen the governance of markets.  相似文献   

11.
This paper examines the determinants of bank net interest margin (NIM) and non-traditional banking activities (NII). A system estimation approach is employed to control for the simultaneity between NIM and NII for commercial banks in a group of 28 financially liberalized countries during the period between 1997 and 2004. We find a statistically significant negative relationship between NIM and NII for the period between 1997 and 2002. A generally positive but statistically insignificant association between NIM and NII is found for the subsequent period (2003–2004). Banks’ increasing involvement in non-traditional activities is negatively correlated with risk-adjusted profitability measures in the former subperiod, suggesting no obvious diversification benefits. However, the share of noninterest income is positively related to the return on assets (ROA) and the return on equity (ROE) for the latter subsample.  相似文献   

12.
Information professionals performing business activity related investigative analysis must routinely associate data from a diverse range of Web based general-interest business and financial information sources. XBRL has become an integral part of the financial data landscape. At the same time, Open Data initiatives have contributed relevant financial, economic, and business data to the pool of publicly available information on the Web but the use of XBRL in combination with Open Data remains at an early state of realisation. In this paper we argue that Linked Data technology, created for Web scale information integration, can accommodate XBRL data and make it easier to combine it with open datasets. This can provide the foundations for a global data ecosystem of interlinked and interoperable financial and business information with the potential to leverage XBRL beyond its current regulatory and disclosure role. We outline the uses of Linked Data technologies to facilitate XBRL consumption in conjunction with non-XBRL Open Data, report on current activities and highlight remaining challenges in terms of information consolidation faced by both XBRL and Web technologies.  相似文献   

13.
In this paper, we assess the relative performance of the direct valuation method and industry multiplier models using 41 435 firm‐quarter Value Line observations over an 11 year (1990–2000) period. Results from both pricing‐error and return‐prediction analyses indicate that direct valuation yields lower percentage pricing errors and greater return prediction ability than the forward price to aggregated forecasted earnings multiplier model. However, a simple hybrid combination of these two methods leads to more accurate intrinsic value estimates, compared to either method used in isolation. It would appear that fundamental analysis could benefit from using one approach as a check on the other.  相似文献   

14.
In this paper we decompose the interest rate swap yield curves of 10 major currencies into their common factors and find that the first two factors, interpreted as parallel shift and rotation, explain between 97.1% and 98.6% of the variation in the interest rate swap rates across all 10 currencies. The main contribution of the paper however is that we then model these two factors as simplified synthetic factors so that they may be used to develop an innovative approach to the computation of Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a portfolio of interest rate swaps.  相似文献   

15.
Mortgage payment protection insurance (hereafter MPPI) provides varying combinations of accident, sickness and unemployment insurance and is used to protect the mortgage payments of policyholders in the event of a fall in income. Despite alleviating housing market failures, this service has been heavily criticised for providing poor value for money and being associated with unhelpful sales techniques especially when sold jointly with a mortgage in the UK. Consequently, the Competition Commission (2009) ruled that after February 2011 MPPI should not be sold jointly with mortgage lending within seven days of the credit transaction. We examine whether this prohibition was justified and if the form of distribution, either jointly with the mortgage or independently influences the premium levels. This assessment uses a hedonic pricing approach with details and premiums of MPPI policies in 2010 and 2012. Despite the success in reducing MPPI premium levels, we conclude that the Competition Commission judgement has raised concerns as to mortgagee protection.  相似文献   

16.
17.
I use a new technique to derive a closed-form solution for theprice of a European call option on an asset with stochasticvolatility. The model allows arbitrary correlation between volatilityand spot asset returns. I introduce stochastic interest ratesand show how to apply the model to bond options and foreigncurrency options. Simulations show that correlation betweenvolatility and the spot asset's price is important for explainingreturn skewness and strike-price biases in the Black-Scholes(1973) model. The solution technique is based on characteristicfunctions and can be applied to other problems  相似文献   

18.
This paper contributes to technical analysis (TA) literature by showing that the high and low prices of equity shares are largely predictable only on the basis of their past realizations. Moreover, using their forecasts as entry/exit signals can improve common TA trading strategies applied on US equity prices. We propose modeling high and low prices using a simple implementation of a fractional vector autoregressive model with error correction (FVECM). This model captures two fundamental patterns of high and low prices: their cointegrating relationship and the long-memory of their difference (i.e., the range), which is a measure of volatility.  相似文献   

19.
The main purpose of this paper is to evaluate the data mining applications, such as classification, which have been used in previous bankruptcy prediction studies and credit rating studies. Our study proposes a multiple criteria linear programming (MCLP) method to predict bankruptcy using Korean bankruptcy data after the 1997 financial crisis. The results, of the MCLP approach in our Korean bankruptcy prediction study, show that our method performs as well as traditional multiple discriminant analysis or logit analysis using only financial data. In addition, our model??s overall prediction accuracy is comparable to those of decision tree or support vector machine approaches. However, our results are not generalizable because our data are from a special situation in Korea.  相似文献   

20.
Accountants are concerned with what information decision makers demand to solve problems. The research reported in this paper measures the demand for information in performance reports. The measurements are obtained by a method developed by psychologists to measure the cognitive processing of information. The evidence indicates that there is a moderate but varying level of convergence among six behavioral measures of demand and that there is a low level of demand consensus. Finally, limitations and implications of the evidence are presented.  相似文献   

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