Financial networks,bank efficiency and risk-taking

Networks with a core–periphery topology are found in many financial systems across different jurisdictions. Though the theoretical and structural aspects of core–periphery networks are clear, the consequences that core–periphery structures bring for banking efficiency stand as an open question. We address this gap in the literature by providing insights as to how the structure of financial networks can affect bank efficiency. We find that core–periphery structures are cost efficient for banks, which is a characteristic that encourages the participation of banks in financial networks. On the downside, we also show that core–periphery structures are risk-taking inefficient, because they imply higher systemic risk levels in the financial system. In this way, regulators should be aware of the excessive risk inefficiency that arises in the financial system due to individual decisions made by banks in the network.     

Payment transactions, instruments, and systems: A survey

The payments literature ranges from theoretical general equilibrium models to practical payment issues related to the day-to-day operation of various national networks for the transfer of money. It is an area where economic theory and institutional structure are often closely intertwined and it is currently undergoing significant change, shifting from costly paper-based systems to technologically advanced electronic payments. The extant literature is surveyed here with the aim of integrating the various strands of payment research which have been largely pursued separately. In addition, we present newly available data to illustrate and investigate a number of underdeveloped areas in this literature.     

Accounting in markets, hierarchies and networks: The role of accounting in the transnational governance of postal transactions

We examine the changing role of accounting in the development of the international postal system between 1840 and the emergence of the Universal Postal Union (UPU) in 1875. We use the distinction between mundane and opportunistic transaction costs to explain why accounting disappeared as a coordinating mechanism as postal transactions migrated from spot market exchanges, through bilateral contracts (treaties) between nations, into a network of domestic post offices coordinated by the UPU. Our analysis refines the application of transaction cost economics to the understanding of the role of management accounting in different governance mechanisms.     

日元套利交易的影响及未来走势分析

日元套利交易是利用日元与其他高息货币间利率差来获得利润的交易方式,一般表现为投资者从金融机构借入日元,并在外汇市场中卖出,同时买入高利率货币,从中赚取利率差。一旦这一交易被大多数市场参与者认同,外汇市场将会出现日元被抛出、高息货币被抢购的局面,最终导致日元不断贬值,而高息货币则持续升值,这使投资者获取了日元与高息货币间利差和持有高息货币升值两方面的收益。     

Single-family housing transactions: Seller motivations, price, and marketing time

Factors such as relocation and financial distress motivate the seller of a single-family home to facilitate sale by posting a lower list price, communicating the motivations to the marketplace, or offering sales incentives to agents. Impacts of seller motivations on selling prices and marketing times are estimated using data for single-family homes sold in Arlington, Texas, from 1991 to 1993. Results show selling price discounts for houses with sellers who are either eager, motivated, or anxious, houses with sellers who have relocated, foreclosures, and vacant houses. Only foreclosure houses show the reduced marketing time expected for properties with motivated sellers. The results further suggest that the list price is the seller's primary mechanism for selling the property. Reducing the list price fosters faster sales at the sacrifice of the selling price.     

Tunneling and propping up: An analysis of related party transactions by Chinese listed companies

We examine a sample of related party transactions between Chinese publicly listed firms and their controlling shareholders during 2001–2002. Minority shareholders in these firms seem to be subject to expropriation through tunneling but also gain from propping up. On balance, there seems to be more tunneling than propping up. Both types of firms have larger state ownership compared to the rest of the Chinese market but firms that are propped up are larger and have larger state ownership than firms subject to tunneling. Propped up firms are more likely to have foreign shareholders and to be cross-listed abroad compared to firms that are subject to tunneling. Propped up firms also tend to have worse operating performance in the fiscal year preceding the announcement of the related party transaction. Finally, we find that related party transactions representing tunneling are accompanied by significantly less information disclosure compared to related party transactions representing propping.     

Financial intermediation,reserve requirements,and inside money: A general equilibrium analysis

Reserve requirements are examined in a general equilibrium context. The paper develops a simple general equilibrium model that includes diverse opportunities for investment and a role for financial intermediaries. Two versions of the model are considered. One is a thought experiment in which currency serves purely to satisfy legal reserve requirements; the other is more realistic. The model is used to analyze the comparative static effects of changes in reserve requirements, the effects of changes in other parameters of the economy in the presence of reserve requirements, and some qualitative issues raised by reserve requirements.     

Noise traders, excess volatility, and a securities transactions tax

Proponents of a securities transactions tax have suggested that such a tax may reduce stock return volatility. The argument is that, to the extent that short-term speculative trading volume is the source of excess volatility, a tax that reduces such volume will reduce volatility. In the context of a simple general equilibrium model, it is shown that this partial equilibrium argument is misleading and in large part incorrect. In the absence of a tax, the model generates equilibria in which the risky asset's price exhibits excess volatility and agents engage in excess trading activity owing to the presence of destabilizing noise traders. Within the context of the model, it is shown that, although a transactions tax can reduce the volatility of the risky asset's price, the reduction in price volatility is accompanied by a fall in the asset's price as agents discount the future tax liability associated with risky asset ownership. Consequently, although price volatility may decrease slightly, the fall in equilibrium prices more than compensates, and the volatiltiy of risky asset returns unambiguously increases with the level of the transactions tax.Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemThe conclusions herein are those of the author and do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Board or any of the Federal Reserve Banks.     

Going private transactions,bondholder returns,and wealth transfer effects

We examine how buyout activity and deal characteristics drive bondholder returns and the wealth transfer effects between bondholders and stockholders in going private transactions from 1981 to 2006. We find that various deal characteristics are major determinants of the cross-sectional variation in bondholder returns. In particular, a single private equity acquirer mitigates bondholder losses. On the other hand, bondholders have larger losses when a reputable buyout firm is involved in the deal. Bondholders experience losses in the 1980s and 2000s, but enjoy gains in the 1990s. Our findings remain robust to consideration of deal financing, relative cost of credit, and level of market overheating. We find a negative and significant relationship between stockholder and bondholder wealth effects, which supports the wealth transfer hypothesis.     

Inventories,credit transactions,and the marginal effective tax rate

It is observed that marginal effective tax rates (METR), as conventionally calculated, can only consider working capital requirements to a limited extent. A formula is derived to incorporate inventory requirements into the calculation and, via a numerical example, it is shown that such an incorporation can radically alter METRs from those conventionally calculated. The analysis is extended to credit transactions without affecting the above conclusion. Thus, if METRs are to be used as a means of evaluating the effects of tax policy on the incentive to invest, working capital requirements need to be explicitly allowed for.     

Ratings-based credit risk modelling: An empirical analysis

Banks have recently developed new techniques for gauging the credit risk associated with portfolios of illiquid and defaultable instruments. These techniques could revolutionise banks' management of credit risk and could in the longer term serve as a more risk-sensitive basis for calculating regulatory capital on banks' loan books than in Basel 2, the new regulatory capital framework. In this paper we implement a popular credit risk model that exploits the information in credit ratings to determine a portfolio's value-at-risk. Using price data on large eurobond portfolios, we assess, on an out-of-sample basis, how well the model tracks the risks it is supposed to measure.     

High-dimensional Hawkes processes for limit order books: modelling,empirical analysis and numerical calibration

High-dimensional Hawkes processes with exponential kernels are used to describe limit order books in order-driven financial markets. The dependencies between orders of various types are carefully studied and modelled, based on a thorough empirical analysis. The observation of inhibition effects is particularly interesting, and leads us to the use of non-linear Hawkes processes. Specific attention is devoted to the calibration problem, in order to account for the high dimensionality of the problem and the very poor convexity properties of the MLE. Our analyses show a good agreement between the statistical properties of order book data and those of the model.     

Financial Econometrics, Financial Innovation, and Financial Stability

Innovation in financial markets, spurred to a significant extentby developments in finance theory and financial econometrics,has played a critical role in spurring economic growth. However,the current turmoil in financial markets raises fundamentalquestions about the nature of financial innovation and the roleof policymakers in maintaining financial stability. This paperexplores these questions, focusing on the complexities of modelingfinancial risk and the potential trade-off between policiesaimed at combating short-run financial instability on the onehand and the potential financial market distortions and moralhazard that can result from such policies on the other.     

Information dissemination,market efficiency and the frequency of transactions

Casual observers of the New York Stock Exchange are often dumbfounded by the frenetic behavior of its participants. If asked how such chaos generates accurate prices many academicians would reply that the ability to transact frequently is a virtue since it promotes prompt information dissemination and therefore market efficiency. However, in contrast to the NYSE where, during trading hours, trades may be consumated almost continuously, the Paris Stock Exchange trades each security only a handful of times a day. This continental contrast in market structure led us to reexamine the role of speed in markets. We have discovered that if sufficient uncertainty surrounds the dissemination of information, frequent transacting may be deleterious to market efficiency. In fact, in our paradigm we are able to show that our measure of market efficiency may be maximized when there is a unique, non-zero time interval between consecutive trades. The measure of efficiency used throughout the paper is minus the mean squared error. This measure was chosen to focus upon the information content of prices at times when they are posted (i.e., at times of tâtonnements). For this purpose we ignore costs of illiquidity and costs associated with obsolete information that would occur between tâtonnements. In this restricted sphere, maximazation of our efficiency measure is consistent with maximizing Social Pareto Optimality.     

Density estimation through quasi-analytic Monte-Carlo simulation: Options arbitrage with transactions costs

Discretely rebalanced options arbitrage strategies in the presence of transaction costs have path dependent returns that are difficult to model analytically. I instead use a quasi-analytic procedure that combines the computational efficiency of analytical solutions with the flexibility of simulations. The central feature is the estimation of the distribution of returns of the arbitrage strategy by mapping simulated returns percentiles and the input parameter set. Using the estimated density, I evaluate the tradeoff between transaction costs and risk exposure under generalized transaction costs structures that includes bid-ask spread and brokerage commission. I show that the optimal strategy depends on transaction costs, volatility, and option moneyness. Strategies such as rebalancing when the hedge ratio changes by 0.25, balances transaction costs and risk exposure, and can be optimal.

Euro and FIBOR interest rates: A continuous time modelling analysis

The introduction of the Euro in January 1999 and the new reference interest rate EURIBOR® which is widely used as the underlying interest rate for Euro denominated derivative contracts have opened up a new area of research in international financial markets. In this paper we estimate single factor models using daily EURIBOR® and FIBOR interest rate data. We also estimate a model allowing a level-GARCH specification and a two factor model. We find evidence of level-volatility effects in both rates.     

金融抑制、金融约束与金融自由化

对于广大发展中国家而言,金融抑制是阻碍经济发展的主要原因.因而,在著名学者罗纳德·麦金农和爱德华·肖的金融深化论影响下,许多发展中国家选择了金融自由化的道路.但令人失望的是,除亚洲外的广大拉美和非洲国家的金融自由化并未能达到预想的效果.为此,经济学家赫尔曼、穆尔多克、斯蒂格利茨提出了金融约束理论,认为政府选择性地干预金融部门有助于而不是阻碍了金融深化.目前国内也存在一些观点认为我国现阶段已具备了实行金融约束的条件,应该选择金融的约束战略.而本文在对金融约束理论及其政策主张进行分析的基础上,认为金融约束在我国目前尚不具备可行性,逐步深入地推行渐进式的金融自由化战略乃是我国金融发展的可行选择.     

金融国际化、金融危机与金融监管

从本次金融危机对国际金融监管体系提出的新挑战出发,本文探讨了金融国际化与金融监管体系改革的关系,以及金融危机对金融监管体系改革的影响。未来,金融监管将日趋国际化,更加注重风险性监管和对创新业务的监管,重视金融机构的内部控制制度和同业自律机制,而统一监管将成为监管体系发展的趋势。在此基础上,本文提出中国金融监管体系改革应走综合监管、统一监管之路,以适应混业经营发展和金融创新的需要;要加强宏观金融审慎监管,保证整个金融系统的稳定;注重保护投资者的合法权益;并不断完善与金融监管体系改革相配套的其他制度与措施。     

Financial contagion: A local correlation analysis

Local correlation is used to examine financial contagion. We share the view of previous research that there is contagion from the U.S. spot equity market to that of Germany and Britain. In addition, we provide evidence to suggest contagion from the U.S. spot equity market to that of Japan and Hong Kong. Furthermore, we have detected contagion from U.S. futures to other futures markets. However, there is no reverse contagion from any of the German, British, Japanese, and Hong Kong spot or index futures markets to those of the U.S. The results have international diversification, portfolio management, and within-industry implications.