Metatheoretical foundations for post-normal risk

The first goal of this paper is to sketch a three-part, synoptic framework that could ease the way beyond the current impasse of competition among the various metatheoretical orientations (e.g. realism vs. social constructivism, positivism vs. cultural theory, etc.) in the risk field. The framework will be constructed on a foundation of metatheoretical principles and its form will accommodate the best features of the competing orientations. Because the articulated principles will build first on a position of realism, we can refer to the framework as a whole as Reconstructed Realism (RR). Because the content of the framework comprises its first two key parts, ontological realism and epistemological hierarchicalism , we can refer to the content by the acronym OREH. The second goal of the paper is to epistemically connect the synoptic framework, RR, to a methodological framework for conducting risk analysis, thereby providing a bridge between theory and practice. The existing methodological framework that bears logical symmetry to RR is the one developed by Funtowicz and Ravetz in a suite of papers (1985; 1991; 1992; 1993; 1994) and which they call 'post-normal science'. Connecting RR- the synoptic framework under development- with postnormal science completes the third part of the framework, and the resulting product is properly labelled 'post-normal risk.' Our life of fishing is so perilous that even though we worship all the gods in the world, many of us still die untimely deaths. Noriko Ogiwara, Dragon Sword and Wind Child     

CEO compensation and performance in US private foundations

In a large sample of US private foundations, we examine the association between CEO compensation and an accounting‐based measure of performance, administrative efficiency. We document a positive pay–performance association across time within foundations, but a negative association across foundations. We interpret our evidence as follows: some foundation boards reward CEOs for high administrative efficiency, which results in a positive pay–performance association. However, some foundations are poorly monitored relative than others, resulting in higher CEO compensation and lower efficiency.     

Remarks on the foundations of actuarial science

Abstract

In a paper entjtled ?Critical Thoughts on Actuarial Science? read before the Swedish Actuarial Society and published in this part of the Journal K. ENGLUND has expressed some views which gave rise to objections also from my part in the verbal discussion at the meeting of the Society. In the following lines I have tried to develop my views about the most important questions touched upon in his paper.     

Strong Increases in Downside Risk Aversion

A ranking of risk preferences is of economic interest insofar as it leads to unambiguous comparative statics predictions, and for this to be the case, the ranking must be a strict partial ordering. The ranking by greater risk aversion meets this demand at the second order, and yields a variety of well-known predictions concerning the effect of greater risk aversion on demands for insurance and risky assets, among many other applications. There has been less success at the third order, where ranking preferences by aversion to downside risk has not produced a strict partial ordering. The problem is that account has not been taken of the fact that an increase in downside risk aversion must induce changes in risk aversion as well. We propose a definition of stronger downside risk aversion that does yield a strict partial ordering by requiring a nested increase in both second- and third-order risk aversion, so that v is more strongly downside risk averse than u if v is more risk averse and more downside risk averse than u. We demonstrate that v being more strongly downside risk averse than u is characterized by v never liking any change in the probability distribution for y that induces a third-order stochastic dominance deterioration in the distribution for u(y). We apply the definition to obtain intuitive comparative statics predictions in the precautionary saving problem, and relate the definition to alternatives proposed in the literature.     

练好内功才能做大做强

俗话讲“内练一口气,外练筋骨皮”,对会计师事务所来讲,这里的“一口气”就是会计师事务所的内部治理。只有练好内功,事务所才能有在激烈的市场竞争中立于不败之地的根本。为此,笔者认为,会计师事务所要有合理的治理机制、良好的文化氛围、远大的经营理念,以及高度的社会责任感。一、事务所应建立合理的治理机制目前,国内有些事务所在经营管理上处于家长制的状态。每一个合伙人分别拉一套班子来做审计业务,管理分散,对业务的质量把关不严,三级复核不能得到彻底贯彻下去。我们财务上讲风险大,收益高,在利益至上、经营没有互相约束的理念下,并…     

煤炭行业强劲依旧

2008年中国很可能会成为煤炭净进口国。退一步讲,即使不会变为煤炭净进口国,也不会出现数量较大的煤炭净出口现象。     

金属强势依旧

自2004年有色金属资源价格步入牛市以来．有色金属板块走出了波澜壮阔的行业．我们可以将其分成三个阶段： 第一阶段为2004年、2005年资源价格上涨初期,对应的股价出现温和上涨。 第二阶段为2006年资源价格快速上涨阶段,受其推动的企业业绩快速增长成为股价快速上涨的驱动因素。     

Price and output adjustment: Micro foundations and aggregation

The paper deals with the derivation of aggregate price and output adjustment models from the micro-foundations of individual firms' behavior under monopolistic competition and uncertain demand. Aggregation over many firms to an industry and the economy as a whole is performed by using Divisia indices. There result, under alternative specifications of price expectations behavior and market structure, a number of simple estimable aggregate price and output adjustment equations that incorporate both cost factors, price expectations and demand variables in them. The appendix gives some partial illustrations of their empirical validity.     

Pricing the Chicago Board of Trade T-Bond futures

The aim of this paper is to investigate the pricing of the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Treasury-Bond futures. The difficulty in pricing it arises from its multiple inter-dependent embedded delivery options, which can be exercised at various times and dates during the delivery month. We consider a general Markov diffusion process model for stochastic interest rates and propose a pricing algorithm that can handle all the delivery rules embedded in the CBOT T-Bond futures. Our procedure combines dynamic programming, finite-elements approximation, and fixed-point evaluation. Numerical illustrations are provided under the one-factor Vasicek and Cox–Ingesoll–Ross models, and under the time in-homogeneous Hull–White model.     

The microstructural foundations of leverage effect and rough volatility

We show that typical behaviors of market participants at the high frequency scale generate leverage effect and rough volatility. To do so, we build a simple microscopic model for the price of an asset based on Hawkes processes. We encode in this model some of the main features of market microstructure in the context of high frequency trading: high degree of endogeneity of market, no-arbitrage property, buying/selling asymmetry and presence of metaorders. We prove that when the first three of these stylized facts are considered within the framework of our microscopic model, it behaves in the long run as a Heston stochastic volatility model, where a leverage effect is generated. Adding the last property enables us to obtain a rough Heston model in the limit, exhibiting both leverage effect and rough volatility. Hence we show that at least part of the foundations of leverage effect and rough volatility can be found in the microstructure of the asset.     

保险业：后势强劲

保险行业在A股市场中的疲软表现-度给很多人的信心带来很大的影响,但是我们认为中国的保险行业在银保合作以及当前的二级市场环境下正在悄然发生着重大的变化．深入探究保险业的投资及发展的机会依然成熟。