New tests of the new-Keynesian Phillips curve

Lagged dependent variables typically play an important role in empirical models of inflation. Do these lags reflect backward-looking inflation expectations, or do they proxy for rational forward-looking expectations, as in the new-Keynesian Phillips curve? Galí and Gertler [1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 195-222] attempt to answer this question using GMM to estimate specifications incorporating both lagged and future inflation. They report small coefficients on lagged inflation and conclude that the new-Keynesian model provides a good first approximation to inflation dynamics. We show that these tests have low power against alternative backward-looking specifications, and demonstrate that their results are also consistent with a backward-looking Phillips curve. Using an alternative approach, we find that the new-Keynesian pricing model cannot explain the importance of lagged inflation in standard inflation regressions, and find that forward-looking terms play a very limited role in explaining inflation dynamics.     

An open-economy new Keynesian Phillips curve for the U.K.

We estimate a pricing equation or “new Keynesian Phillips curve” (NKPC) obtained from a structural dynamic model of price setting based on Rotemberg [1982. Sticky prices in the United States. Journal of Political Economy 90(6), 1187-1211] and extended to capture employment adjustment costs and the openness of the United Kingdom. This model nests the baseline Galí and Gertler [1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric analysis. Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 127-159) and Sbordone [2002. Prices and unit labor costs: a new test of price stickiness. Journal of Monetary Economics 49, 265-292] relationship between inflation and marginal cost in the limiting case of no employment adjustment costs, no impact of relative prices of imported inputs on real marginal cost and a constant equilibrium markup. Our findings indicate that each of our modifications to the baseline NKPC model is important for U.K. data, so that inflation in the U.K. is explained both by changes in employment and by changes in real import prices, in general, and real oil prices, in particular. External competitive pressures also seem to affect U.K. inflation via their impact on the equilibrium price markup of domestic firms.     

The Phillips curve under state-dependent pricing

We derive a Phillips curve equation from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with state-dependent pricing developed by Dotsey et al. [1999. State-dependent pricing and the general equilibrium dynamics of money and output. Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, 655-690]. This state-dependent Phillips curve encompasses the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) based on Calvo-type price setting as a special case. We analyze the effect of the state-dependent terms (that is, the variations in the distributions of price vintages) on inflation persistence, and we examine whether the hybrid NKPC (that is, the NKPC extended by a lagged inflation term) can adequately describe inflation dynamics generated in a calibrated state-dependent pricing economy.     

Robustness of the estimates of the hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve

Galí and Gertler [1999. Inflation dynamics: a structural econometric approach. Journal of Monetary Eonomics 44(2), 195-222] developed a hybrid variant of the New Keynesian Phillips curve that relates inflation to real marginal cost, expected future inflation and lagged inflation. GMM estimates of the model suggest that forward-looking behavior is dominant: the coefficient on expected future inflation substantially exceeds the coefficient on lagged inflation. While the latter differs significantly from zero, it is quantitatively modest. Several authors have suggested that our results are the product of specification bias or suspect estimation methods. Here we show that these claims are incorrect, and that our results are robust to a variety of estimation procedures, including GMM estimation of the closed form, and nonlinear instrumental variables. Also, as we discuss, many others have obtained very similar results to ours using a systems approach, including FIML techniques. Hence, the conclusions of GG and others regarding the importance of forward-looking behavior remain robust.     

Comment on: “Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution”

The methodology proposed in Flood and Rose [2005. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: a systematic exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (5) 951-969] fails to distinguish between the single unique marginal rate of substitution (MRS) process and the class of valid pricing kernels, of which the MRS is but a particular member. Thus, at best, this methodology explores the properties of some arbitrary pricing kernel, which may differ radically from the true MRS. Furthermore, the estimates of the expected MRS proposed by Flood and Rose [2005. Estimating the expected marginal rate of substitution: a systematic exploration of idiosyncratic risk. Journal of Monetary Economics 52 (5) 951-969] are highly correlated with ex post shocks, implying that these estimates are not conditional expectations at all. The cure for this misspecification introduces additional econometric problems, suggesting that the model may, in practice, be poorly identified.     

Comment on: “Inflation dynamics with search frictions: A structural econometric analysis” by Krause, Lopez-Salido and Lubik

The implications of search frictions on the inflation dynamics are shown here for the case with wage adjustments typically belonging to the New Keynesian model, not to the Mortensen–Pissarides framework. In that model variant, I identify the role of search frictions by an additional term entering the slope coefficient of the inflation equation. After a numerical exercise, I find results that are in line with those obtained by Krause et al. [2008. Inflation dynamics with search frictions: a structural econometric analysis. Journal of Monetary Economics 55, doi:10.1016/j.jmoneco.2008.05.003.].     

Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach

The baseline New Keynesian model cannot replicate the observed persistence in inflation, output, and real wages for sensible parameter values. As a result, several extensions have been suggested to improve its fit to the data. We use a Bayesian approach to estimate and compare the baseline sticky price model of Calvo's [1983. Staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 383-398.] and three extensions. Our empirical results are as follows. First, we find that adding price indexation improves the fit of Calvo's [1983. Staggered prices in a utility maximizing framework. Journal of Monetary Economics 12, 383-398.] model. Second, models with both staggered price and wage setting dominate models with only price rigidities. Third, introducing wage indexation does not significantly improve the fit. Fourth, all model estimates suggest a high degree of price stickiness. Fifth, the estimates of labor supply elasticity are higher in models with both staggered price and wage contracts. Finally, the estimated inflation parameters of the Taylor rule are stable across models.     

Do long swings in the business cycle lead to strong persistence in output?

This paper investigates how the occasional long swing in the business cycle can produce long-memory behavior in US output. To prove this theoretical relationship, we extend the Hamilton Markov chain regime switching model of real aggregate output to include the occasional long regime. We do this by modeling the duration length of the expansion and recession regimes as draws from a fat-tailed distribution with realized durations that are high in variability and occasionally extreme in value. Empirically, we find that the tail indices for the length of US economic booms and busts correspond with the long-memory parameter estimates of Diebold and Rudebusch [1989. Long memory and persistence in aggregate output. Journal of Monetary Economics 24, 189-209] and Sowell [1992a. Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model. Journal of Monetary Economics 29, 277-302] for real US output. Estimates of our extended regime switching model produce better short- and long-run forecasts of output in comparison to forecasts with a fractionally integrated model. Furthermore, our estimated regime-switching model finds US expansions to be fragile during their infancy, but become more and more likely to continue after surviving the first seven quarters.     

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model of inflation dynamics based on forward-looking expectations is of great theoretical significance in monetary policy analysis. Empirical studies, however, often find that backward-looking inflation inertia dominates the dynamics of the short-run aggregate supply curve. This inconsistency is examined by investigating multiple structural changes in the NKPC for the U.S. between 1960 and 2005, employing both inflation expectations survey data and a rational expectations approximation. We find that forward-looking behavior plays a smaller role during the high and volatile inflation regime to 1981 than in the subsequent period of moderate inflation, providing empirical support for sticky price models over the last two decades. A break in the intercept of the NKPC is also identified around 2001 and this may be associated with U.S. monetary policy in that period.     

Taylor rules and the term structure

The expectations model of the term structure has been subjected to numerous empirical tests and almost invariably rejected, with the failure generally attributed to systematic expectations errors or to shifts in risk premia. Rules for monetary policy designed along the lines of Taylor [1993. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39, 195-214] specify that the central bank adjusts short-term yields in response to deviations of inflation and output gaps from target level. Such rules give a good empirical account of the behavior of the short-term interest rate. Combining the Taylor rule and expectations theory, it is possible to generate—along lines pioneered by Campbell and Shiller [1987. Cointegration and tests of present value models. Journal of Political Economy 95, 1062-1088]—a series of theoretical long-term interest rates. When such theoretical rates are calculated for the US over 1980-2004, considerable support for the expectations theory emerges.     

Do expected future marginal costs drive inflation dynamics?

This article discusses a more general interpretation of the two-step minimum distance estimation procedure proposed in Sbordone (2002). The estimator is again applied to a version of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, where inflation dynamics are driven by the expected evolution of marginal costs. The article clarifies econometric issues, addresses concerns about uncertainty and model misspecification raised in recent studies, and assesses the robustness of previous results. While confirming the importance of forward-looking terms in accounting for inflation dynamics, it suggests how the methodology can be applied to extend the analysis of inflation to a multivariate setting.     

Menu costs and Markov inflation: A theoretical revision with new evidence

We revisit a foundational theoretical paper in the menu-cost literature, Sheshinski and Weiss [1983. Optimum pricing policy under stochastic inflation. Review of Economic Studies 50(3), 513-529], one of the few to treat stochastic inflation with persistent deviations from trend. In contrast to the original finding, we show that optimal pricing in this environment entails using different (s,S) bands in high-inflation and low-inflation states of the world. The low-inflation band is strictly contained within the high-inflation band. This revised solution has very different implications from the original one. Firms are generally risk loving, not risk averse, with respect to inflation. An increase in the variance of inflation increases price dispersion when inflation is high and decreases price dispersion when inflation is low. On an aggregate level, this optimal pricing would lead to bunching of prices and non-neutrality of money in the setting of Caplin and Spulber [1987. Menu costs and the neutrality of money. Quarterly Journal of Economics 102(4), 703-725]. To test the main finding, we construct an establishment-level dataset from the months surrounding Mexico's “tequila crisis” in 1995. In the high-inflation state, price increases are larger and establishments allow their prices to vary more widely around their respective long-run mean relative prices. Cross-establishment price dispersion is lower, but this result seems due to decreased establishment heterogeneity rather than narrower (s,S) bands. Overall, the evidence suggests that establishments employ wider (s,S) bands in the high-inflation state.     

Incomplete markets, labor supply and capital accumulation

Endogenous labor supply decisions are introduced in an equilibrium model of limited insurance against idiosyncratic shocks. Unlike in the standard case with exogenous labor (e.g. [Aiyagari, S.R., 1994. Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving. Quarterly Journal of Economics 109, 659-684; Huggett, M., 1997. The one-sector growth model with idiosyncratic shocks: steady states and dynamics. Journal of Monetary Economics 39, 385-403]), labor supply is likely to be lower than under complete markets. This is due to an ex post wealth effect on labor supply (rich productive agents work fewer hours) that runs counter the precautionary savings motive. As a result, equilibrium savings and output may be lower under incomplete markets. It is also found that long-run savings remain finite even when the interest rate equals the inverse of the discount factor.     

Rejoinder to Paul Krugman

We provide a brief rejoinder to Krugman [2008, Response to Nelson and Schwartz. Journal of Monetary Economics 55, this issue] on three issues that are central to his original New York Review of Books article and his reply to our setting the record straight: (i) criticisms of Friedman; (ii) criticisms of monetarism; and (iii) interpretations of history.     

Corruption in bank lending to firms: Cross-country micro evidence on the beneficial role of competition and information sharing

Building on the important study by Beck, Demirguc-Kunt, and Levine [2006. Bank supervision and corruption in lending. Journal of Monetary Economics 53, 2131-2163], we examine the effects of both borrower and lender competition as well as information sharing via credit bureaus/registries on corruption in bank lending. Using the unique World Bank data set (WBES) covering more than 4,000 firms across 56 countries with information on credit bureaus/registries, assembled by Djankov, McLiesh, and Shleifer [2007. Private credit in 129 countries. Journal of Financial Economics 84, 299–329], and bank regulation data collected by Barth, Caprio, and Levine [2006. Rethinking Bank Regulation: Till Angels Govern. Cambridge University Press, New York] to measure bank competition and information sharing, we find strong evidence that both banking competition and information sharing reduce lending corruption, and that information sharing also helps enhance the positive effect of competition in curtailing lending corruption. We also find that the ownership structure of firms and banks, legal environment, and firm competition all exert significant impacts on lending corruption.     

Bank runs and investment decisions revisited

We examine how the possibility of a bank run affects the investment decisions made by a competitive bank. Cooper and Ross [1998. Bank runs: liquidity costs and investment distortions. Journal of Monetary Economics 41, 27-38] have shown that when the probability of a run is small, the bank will offer a contract that admits a bank-run equilibrium. We show that, in this case, the bank will chose to hold an amount of liquid reserves exactly equal to what withdrawal demand will be if a run does not occur; precautionary or “excess” liquidity will not be held. This result allows us to show that when the cost of liquidating investment early is high, an increase in the probability of a run will lead the bank to invest less. However, when liquidation costs are moderate, the level of investment is increasing in the probability of a run.     

Narrative and VAR approaches to monetary policy: Common identification problems

Romer and Romer [Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H. 1989. Does monetary policy matter? A new test in the spirit of Friedman and Schwartz. In: Blanchard, O.J., Fischer, S. (Eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, pp. 121–170; Romer, C.D., Romer, D.H., 1994. Monetary policy matters. Journal of Monetary Economics 34, 75–88] adopted a narrative approach to address the identification problems in time series models of monetary policy. Based on Federal Reserve documents, the Romers created a dummy variable equal to one in periods when the Federal Reserve contracted in response to perceived inflationary pressures. This paper shows: (1) the dummy variable is predictable from past macroeconomic variables, reflecting the endogenous response of policy to the economy; (2) unpredictable changes in the dummy do not generate dynamic responses that look like the effects of monetary policy. The identification problems that plague time series models also afflict the narrative approach.     

The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions

Recently a market in options based on consumer price index inflation (inflation caps and floors) has emerged in the US. This paper uses quotes on these derivatives to construct probability densities for inflation. We study how these probability density functions respond to news announcements and find that the implied odds of deflation are sensitive to certain macroeconomic news releases. We also estimate empirical pricing kernels using these option prices along with time series models fitted to inflation. The options-implied densities assign considerably more mass to extreme inflation outcomes (either deflation or high inflation) than do their time series counterparts. This yields a U-shaped empirical pricing kernel, with investors having high marginal utility in states of the world characterized by either deflation or high inflation.     

Understanding European unemployment with a representative family model

A representative family model with indivisible labor and employment lotteries has no labor market frictions and complete markets. Nevertheless, its aggregate responses to an increase in government supplied unemployment insurance (UI) and to an increase in microeconomic turbulence are qualitatively similar to those in two macromodels with labor market frictions and incomplete markets, namely, the matching and search-island models in Ljungqvist and Sargent [2007a. Understanding European unemployment with matching and search-island models. Journal of Monetary Economics, this issue]. Because there is no frictional unemployment in the representative family model, an increase in employment protection (EP) decreases aggregate work because the representative family substitutes leisure for work, an effect opposite to what occurs in matching and search-island models. Heterogeneity among workers highlights the economy-wide coordination in labor supply and consumption sharing that employment lotteries and complete markets achieve in the representative family model. A high disutility of labor makes generous UI cause very low employment levels.