基于银行间国债回购利率时间序列的实证分析

预测市场利率的走势，对于商业银行利率风险管理非常重要。依据国债7天和14天回购利率数据，本文建立了利率预测综合自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)和误差修正模型(ECM)。模拟结果表明，ARIMA模型不太理想，而ECM模型效果较好。     

上证国债指数与回购市场利率的协整分析

运用向量自回归（VAR）模型以及脉冲响应函数对国债市场中的上证国债指数与回购市场利率的长期均衡以及短期信息冲击波动的关系进行研究,发现尽管这两个市场参与主体和交易产品期限存在差别,但是国债指数与不同期限的回购利率之间存在协整关系,而且不同期限的回购利率短期信息冲击立即对国债指数产生剧烈影响,但这个冲击影响会逐渐消失。     

基于银行间7天回购定盘利率波动性的实证分析

本文旨在用离散化的CIR模型对7天回购定盘利率动态变化进行回归分析,并引入GARCH模型对离散化的CIR模型进行修正。分析结果显示7天回购定盘利率存在明显的GARCH效应,利用GARCH模型能较好的刻画7天回购定盘利率的动态变化。     

基于CVaR的我国银行间债券回购市场利率风险度量研究

在银行间债券回购市场利率基本特征分析基础上，利用我国银行间回购开始日1997年6月15日至2008年4月20日全部质押式回购每周加权平均利率进行实证研究，建立了基于ARMA-GARCH模型族的利率风险CVAR测度模型。结果表明我国银行间债券回购市场中存在杠杆效应；回购利率分布对CVAR计算结果影响较大，GED分布能较正态分布和t分布能更好刻画我国银行间回购利率序列的分布状况；并且在GED分布下，EGARCH模型计算得到的CVAR值要优于GARCH和TARCH模型得到的结果．     

银行持债行为影响国债市场的实证研究

本文从2003年银行间国债市场的回购利率和国债收益率的角度出发,同时结合货币政策对银行的资金调节作用,对银行持债行为与国债市场之间的关系进行了实证研究,从而揭示出银行持债行为对国债市场的重大影响作用,并得出有关债券市场的三个基本结论。     

银行持债行为影响国债市场的实证研究

本文从2003年银行间国债市场的回购利率和国债收益率的角度出发,同时结合货币政策对银行的资金调节作用,对银行持债行为与国债市场之间的关系进行了实证研究,从而揭示出银行持债行为对国债市场的重大影响作用,并得出有关债券市场的三个基本结论.     

国债回购交易审计重点分析

国债回购是一种常见的国债交易方式，包括两种情况：一种是国债持有者在卖出一笔国债的同时，与买方(即交易所)用协议约定于某一到期日再以事先约定的价格将该笔国债购回的交易方式；另一种是投资者在购入一笔国债的同时，用协议的方式与卖方(交易所)约定在未来某一到期日，以事先约定的价格卖给最初的售券者。前一种称为国债的正回购，又叫卖出回购；后一种称为买入返售，是国债的逆回购．     

我国国债利率期限结构研究

本文简要地阐述了利率期限结构理论,并对国内外的有关利率期限结构的模型进行了评述。在国内的国债利率期限结构模型的基础上,根据现有的数据,分析了我国国债利率期限结构曲线的变动趋势并提出了预测模型。     

流动性与交易所市场回购利率

在发达的金融市场上,回购利率的期限结构服从纯预期假设,无论从经济意义上还是从统计意义上来说风险溢酬都不显著。但是中国金融市场作为新兴市场表现出一些不同点。本文利用2000年1月到2006年2月上海证券交易所的回购数据,发现长期回购利率有明显的风险溢酬,预期理论并不成立。进一步分析得到流动性是影响风险溢酬的一个关键因素,流动性的预期和流动性的随机冲击都对观察到的风险溢酬有影响,并且流动性的预期是主要的影响因素。     

国债回购浅探

按照住房公积金制度的有关规定，住房公积金管理中心在保证住房公积金缴交人正常支取和发放公积金贷款的前提下，经住房公积金管理委员会批准，可以部分资金购买国家债券。国债回购交易作为国债的一种运作方式，以其流动性强，收益率高的特点得到越来越广泛的应用。目前，各地的住房公积金管理中心都存有一定数量的国债，如何将这部分资金用活，是一个值得研究的问题。     

A threshold stochastic volatility model with explanatory variables

In this paper, we introduce a threshold stochastic volatility model with explanatory variables. The Bayesian method is considered in estimating the parameters of the proposed model via the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. Gibbs sampling and Metropolis–Hastings sampling methods are used for drawing the posterior samples of the parameters and the latent variables. In the simulation study, the accuracy of the MCMC algorithm, the sensitivity of the algorithm for model assumptions, and the robustness of the posterior distribution under different priors are considered. Simulation results indicate that our MCMC algorithm converges fast and that the posterior distribution is robust under different priors and model assumptions. A real data example was analyzed to explain the asymmetric behavior of stock markets.     

Realized volatility forecast with the Bayesian random compressed multivariate HAR model

We develop a Bayesian random compressed multivariate heterogeneous autoregressive (BRC-MHAR) model to forecast the realized covariance matrices of stock returns. The proposed model randomly compresses the predictors and reduces the number of parameters. We also construct several competing multivariate volatility models with the alternative shrinkage methods to compress the parameter’s dimensions. We compare the forecast performances of the proposed models with the competing models based on both statistical and economic evaluations. The results of statistical evaluation suggest that the BRC-MHAR models have the better forecast precision than the competing models for the short-term horizon. The results of economic evaluation suggest that the BRC-MHAR models are superior to the competing models in terms of the average return, the Shape ratio and the economic value.     

国债投资的利率风险免疫研究

亚洲金融危机后,我国国债发行和交易利率逐步下降,国债投资收益率也随之下降。但是,目前我国的宏观经济面临新一轮过热的压力,中央银行也面临提高利率的压力,也极大地增加了国债投资的利率风险。本文从利率期限结构承受线性冲击和非线性冲击以及随机利率期限结构条件下,利用免疫理论研究如何防范国债投资的利率风险。     

中央银行利率调整对商业银行盈利能力影响的实证分析

本文运用统计分析中的方差分析方法,以上市商业银行为样本,对不同类型商业银行的盈利能力如何受中央银行存贷款利率变动的影响进行了定量分析,发现中央银行利率政策的调整对不同类型商业银行的盈利能力具有不同程度的影响,并对商业银行提高盈利能力提出了对策建议。     

非对称性利率政策对中国房价影响的实证分析

房地产行业资金密集性的特点决定了其必然受到利率政策的重大影响。本文从利率政策的非对称性视角出发,区分扩张性和紧缩性利率政策区间,建立向量自回归与误差修正模型,并进行脉冲响应和方差分解分析,研究结果表明扩张性利率政策对房价的促进作用要强于紧缩性利率政策对房价的抑制作用。如果欲促进房地产复苏,则降低与投资者和消费者成本收益紧密相关的短中期存贷款利率;如果欲遏制房价过快上涨,则提高短期存款利率和长期贷款利率。根据实证研究的结果,文章提出了有针对性的政策建议。     

An empirical investigation into the causes of failure of the monetary model of the exchange rate

The purpose of this paper is to attempt to provide measures of the relative importance of the principal causes of the failure of the monetary model of the exchange rate. Secondly, the random walk hypothesis for the exchange rate is tested. The methodology employed is new and has wide application elsewhere. It involves explicitly modelling the misspecification by time series techniques. The results confirm the importance of the breakdown of the PPP assumption but they also show that misspecification of the money market is equally important. The results further show that lagged information can also improve upon the random walk model of the exchange rate.     

A Bayesian asymmetric logistic model of factors underlying team success in top‐level basketball in Spain

This paper analyses the factors underlying the victories and defeats of the Spanish basketball teams Real Madrid and Barcelona in the national league, ACB. The following research questions were addressed: (a) Is it possible to identify the factors underlying these results? (b) Can knowledge of these factors increase the probability of winning and thus help coaches take better decisions? We analysed 80 and 79 games played in the 2013–2014 season by Real Madrid and Barcelona, respectively. Logistic regression analysis was performed to predict the probability of the team winning. The models were estimated by standard (frequentist) and Bayesian methods, taking into account the asymmetry of the data, that is, the fact that the database contained many more wins than losses. Thus, the analysis consisted of an asymmetric logistic regression. From the Bayesian standpoint, this model was considered the most appropriate, as it highlighted relevant factors that might remain undetected by standard logistic regression. The prediction quality of the models obtained was tested by application to the results produced in the following season (2014–2015). Again, asymmetric logistic regression achieved the best results. In view of the study findings, we make various practical recommendations to improve decision making in this field. In short, asymmetric logistic regression is a valuable tool that can help coaches improve their game strategies.     

An empirical test of a correspondence model of expatriate managers' work adjustment

We develop and empirically test a model of expatriate managers' work adjustment. In this model we relate the fit between work-related abilities and needs of expatriate managers as well as the fit between the job requirements of, and incentives associated with, an international assignment to the level of expatriate managers' work adjustment. We test this model with data gathered by means of an electronic survey among 118 German expatriate managers. The empirical findings largely support our theoretical model. The paper enhances our understanding of expatriate managers' work adjustment and its antecedents and contributes to the theoretical and empirical basis of research into expatriate management.     

An empirical investigation of the effects of impact fees on housing and land markets

This paper presents the results from estimating the effects of development impact fees on the prices of new and existing single-family homes and undeveloped residential land using unique data for Dade County, FL. The results show that an additional US$1.00 of fees increases the price of both new and existing housing by about US$1.60 and reduces the price of land by about US$1.00. These findings are shown to be consistent with the new view but not the old view theory of impact fee incidence.     

通货膨胀对我国股市影响的实证分析

本文采用协整分析方法来分析通货膨胀对我国股市的影响，并建立模型进一步分析通货膨胀对我国股市的交易活动和流动性的长期和短期影响。