Fat tails and spurious estimation of consumption‐based asset pricing models

The standard generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of Euler equations in heterogeneous‐agent consumption‐based asset pricing models is inconsistent under fat tails because the GMM criterion is asymptotically random. To illustrate this, we generate asset returns and consumption data from an incomplete‐market dynamic general equilibrium model that is analytically solvable and exhibits power laws in consumption. Monte Carlo experiments suggest that the standard GMM estimation is inconsistent and susceptible to Type II errors (incorrect nonrejection of false models). Estimating an overidentified model by dividing agents into age cohorts appears to mitigate Type I and II errors.     

Semi‐parametric Regression under Model Uncertainty: Economic Applications

Economic theory does not always specify the functional relationship between dependent and explanatory variables, or even isolate a particular set of covariates. This means that model uncertainty is pervasive in empirical economics. In this paper, we indicate how Bayesian semi‐parametric regression methods in combination with stochastic search variable selection can be used to address two model uncertainties simultaneously: (i) the uncertainty with respect to the variables which should be included in the model and (ii) the uncertainty with respect to the functional form of their effects. The presented approach enables the simultaneous identification of robust linear and nonlinear effects. The additional insights gained are illustrated on applications in empirical economics, namely willingness to pay for housing, and cross‐country growth regression.     

Semi‐nonparametric competing risks analysis of recidivism

In this paper we specify a semi‐nonparametric competing risks (SNP‐CR) model of recidivism, for misdemeanors and felonies. The model is a bivariate mixed proportional hazard model with Weibull baseline hazards and common unobserved heterogeneity. The distribution of the latter is modeled semi‐nonparametrically, using orthonormal Legendre polynomials on the unit interval, and integrated out to make the two durations dependent, conditional on the covariates. The SNP‐CR model involved corresponds to a Logit model for felony arrest; hence the validity of the SNP‐CR model can be tested by testing the validity of the implied Logit model. The latter will be done by using the integrated conditional moment (ICM) test. In the first instance we have estimated and tested two versions of the SNP‐CR model, without and with fixed state effects. However, the ICM test rejects these models. Therefore, we have estimated and tested the model for each state separately. These state models are not rejected by the ICM test. Indeed, the estimation results vary substantially per state. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Quantifying the economic cost of children: a note on intertemporal equivalence scales

Static economic models based on complete demand systems are inadequate for estimating unconditional equivalence scales; in order to capture the effects of demographic changes on consumer behaviour, a life-cycle dynamic model is taken into account. In literature, studies have presented and evaluated longitudinal equivalence scales and intertemporal cost of children but these cannot be applied in practice when equivalence scales are utilised in poverty or income distribution analyses. This paper proposes intratemporal equivalent income scales, which are within period index numbers incorporating intertemporal consumer behaviour.     

Compensation systems for green strategy implementation: parametric and non‐parametric approaches

This paper presents a design for compensation systems for green strategy implementation based on parametric and non‐parametric approaches. The purpose of the analysis is to use formal modeling to explain the issues that arise with the multi‐task problem of implementing an environmental strategy in addition to an already existing profit‐oriented strategy. For the first class of compensation systems (parametric), a multi‐task model is used as a basis. For the second class of compensation systems (non‐parametric), data envelopment analysis is applied.Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment     

Birth of the Modern Corporation: From Servant of the State to Semi‐Sovereign Power

It is widely known that large business corporations have accumulated enormous political and economic power since the early 20^th century. They not only create barriers to entry to small firms in the economic domain, they also pose a serious threat to democracy by dominating public discourse and occupying a wide range of public spaces. Efforts to halt or reverse the growth of corporate power have been largely ineffective, in large part because they have been entirely reactive. In order for citizens to reclaim the economy and politics, a new strategy is necessary, one that starts by analyzing the source of corporate power. The method of analysis in this article is historical, specifically the history of changes in the United States of the legal instruments of incorporation and their relationship to emerging conditions in the economy and business. In the first half of the 19^th century, corporations were chartered by state governments to carry out public benefit activities, particularly infrastructure projects. These mixed corporations lost favor during the depression of the 1840s and were replaced by private for‐profit corporations that continued using the same debt financing instruments employed by states. They were also still regulated by the states that issued their charters. When corporations sought to avoid competition by creating cartels, they had difficulty maintaining discipline and discovered they needed new rights in order to gain permanent control of markets. In the 1890s, they were granted the status of “natural persons,” with the legal protections of citizens, but they also gained the right to buy other corporations, thereby solidifying their market power and making them largely autonomous from public control. Each transition was contested, but when it was completed, it seemed to the public as if corporations had always had their new powers. In order to regain the power to hold corporations accountable to the public, those old contested issues need to be brought back into public discourse, so that citizens might decide for themselves how much power corporations should have.     

A Semi‐Parametric Analysis of Two‐Sided Markets: An Application to the Local Daily Newspapers in the USA

This paper considers an empirical semiparametric model for two‐sided markets. Contrary to existing empirical literature on two‐sided markets, we specify network effects and probability distribution functions of net benefits of the two sides nonparametrically. We then estimate the model by nonparametric instrumental variables regression for local daily newspapers from the USA. We show that semiparametric specification is supported by the data and the network effects are neither linear nor monotonic. With a numerical illustration we demonstrate that the mark‐up of the newspaper on each side changes drastically with the nonlinearly specified network effects from the case with linear network effects. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonparametric methods and local‐time‐based estimation for dynamic power law distributions

This paper introduces nonparametric econometric methods that characterize general power law distributions under basic stability conditions. These methods extend the literature on power laws in the social sciences in several directions. First, we show that any stationary distribution in a random growth setting is shaped entirely by two factors: the idiosyncratic volatilities and reversion rates (a measure of cross‐sectional mean reversion) for different ranks in the distribution. This result is valid regardless of how growth rates and volatilities vary across different economic agents, and hence applies to Gibrat's law and its extensions. Second, we present techniques to estimate these two factors using panel data. Third, we describe how our results imply predictability as higher‐ranked processes must on average grow more slowly than lower‐ranked processes. We employ our empirical methods using data on commodity prices and show that our techniques accurately describe the empirical distribution of relative commodity prices. We also show that rank‐based out‐of‐sample forecasts of future commodity prices outperform random‐walk forecasts at a 1‐month horizon.     

Partial Horizontal Inequity Orderings: A Non‐parametric Approach*

We provide a partial ordering view of horizontal inequity (HI), based on the Lorenz criterion, associated with different post‐tax income distributions and a (bistochastic) non‐parametric estimated benchmark distribution. As a consequence, several measures consistent with the Lorenz criterion can be rationalized. In addition, we establish the so‐called HI transfer principle, which imposes a normative minimum requirement that any HI measure must satisfy. Our proposed HI ordering is consistent with this principle. Moreover, we adopt a cardinal view to decompose the total effect of a tax system into a welfare gain caused by HI‐free income redistribution and a welfare loss caused by HI, without any additive decomposable restriction on the indices. Hence, more robust tests can be applied. Other decompositions in the literature are seen as particular cases.     

Measurement equivalence of executives' performance ratings for same‐ and opposite‐gender dyads

The measurement equivalence of performance ratings from different raters is important to establish if researchers and practitioners want to have confidence that raters are using the performance measurement system in the same way. The purpose of the present study was to examine the measurement equivalence of performance ratings from male and female direct reports. Women and men executives from various organizations participated in a multisource assessment process for feedback and development purposes and were rated by both women and men direct reports. The results indicated gender equivalence for direct reports' ratings of men and women executives, meaning that regardless of gender, raters provided ratings using the same psychological metric. The implications and limitations of the study are discussed.     

Reasons for lapse: the case of face‐to‐face donors

Face‐to‐face fundraising is attracting increasingly hostile media coverage in the United Kingdom in the run up to the publication of the Charities Act in 2004. Despite the antipathy comparatively little is known about how donors view this technique and why they might elect to terminate their support having been recruited by this medium. This paper reports the results of a survey of 4,800 face‐to‐face recruits, comparing the attitudes and profiles of both active and lapsed supporters. The results suggest that donors exhibit high levels of satisfaction with the recruitment process and lapse primarily because of a change in their financial circumstances rather than feelings of having being pressurised to offer their support. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications     

Residual‐based IV estimation of dynamic panel data models with fixed effects

In dynamic panel regression, when the variance ratio of individual effects to disturbance is large, the system‐GMM estimator will have large asymptotic variance and poor finite sample performance. To deal with this variance ratio problem, we propose a residual‐based instrumental variables (RIV) estimator, which uses the residual from regressing Δy_i,t?1 on as the instrument for the level equation. The RIV estimator proposed is consistent and asymptotically normal under general assumptions. More importantly, its asymptotic variance is almost unaffected by the variance ratio of individual effects to disturbance. Monte Carlo simulations show that the RIV estimator has better finite sample performance compared to alternative estimators. The RIV estimator generates less finite sample bias than difference‐GMM, system‐GMM, collapsing‐GMM and Level‐IV estimators in most cases. Under RIV estimation, the variance ratio problem is well controlled, and the empirical distribution of its t‐statistic is similar to the standard normal distribution for moderate sample sizes.     

Statistical Approaches for Non‐parametric Frontier Models: A Guided Tour

A rich theory of production and analysis of productive efficiency has developed since the pioneering work by Tjalling C. Koopmans and Gerard Debreu. Michael J. Farrell published the first empirical study, and it appeared in a statistical journal (Journal of the Royal Statistical Society), even though the article provided no statistical theory. The literature in econometrics, management sciences, operations research and mathematical statistics has since been enriched by hundreds of papers trying to develop or implement new tools for analysing productivity and efficiency of firms. Both parametric and non‐parametric approaches have been proposed. The mathematical challenge is to derive estimators of production, cost, revenue or profit frontiers, which represent, in the case of production frontiers, the optimal loci of combinations of inputs (like labour, energy and capital) and outputs (the products or services produced by the firms). Optimality is defined in terms of various economic considerations. Then the efficiency of a particular unit is measured by its distance to the estimated frontier. The statistical problem can be viewed as the problem of estimating the support of a multivariate random variable, subject to some shape constraints, in multiple dimensions. These techniques are applied in thousands of papers in the economic and business literature. This ‘guided tour’ reviews the development of various non‐parametric approaches since the early work of Farrell. Remaining challenges and open issues in this challenging arena are also described. © 2014 The Authors. International Statistical Review © 2014 International Statistical Institute     

Lancaster's characteristics approach revisited: product selection using non‐parametric methods

In consumer theory, the principles of Lancaster's characteristics approach and hedonic pricing appear to offer the most promising insight into choice when qualitative aspects are important. The paper reconciles these principles with the family of non‐parametric frontier estimation methods known as data envelopment analysis. It is shown that, with some straightforward adjustments, DEA is entirely consistent with the characteristics view of consumer choice found in the economics literature. In making Lancaster's ideas operational, the paper also addresses the theoretical concern voiced by Lancaster about combining indivisible products. The principles are illustrated with a case study involving the comparison of diesel cars. The paper concludes that the user will ultimately have to apply some judgement in choosing between competing efficient products. However, the analysis should help to restrict the number of products to be assessed to manageable proportions. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Business education and employment relations: the case of Germany

Here the author discusses the interrelationship between the university teaching of business economics and management practice in employment relations in Germany. It concludes that they are mutually supportive. In particular, the educational philosophy is very conducive to the adoption of a human resource management approach.     

A simple approach to the parametric estimation of potentially nonstationary diffusions

A simple and robust approach is proposed for the parametric estimation of scalar homogeneous stochastic differential equations. We specify a parametric class of diffusions and estimate the parameters of interest by minimizing criteria based on the integrated squared difference between kernel estimates of the drift and diffusion functions and their parametric counterparts. The procedure does not require simulations or approximations to the true transition density and has the simplicity of standard nonlinear least-squares methods in discrete time. A complete asymptotic theory for the parametric estimates is developed. The limit theory relies on infill and long span asymptotics and is robust to deviations from stationarity, requiring only recurrence.     

A Non‐parametric Examination of Capital–Skill Complementarity*

This paper uses non‐parametric kernel methods to construct observation‐specific elasticities of substitution for a balanced panel of 73 developed and developing countries to examine the capital–skill complementarity hypothesis. The exercise shows some support for capital–skill complementarity, but the strength of the evidence depends upon the definition of skilled labour and the elasticity of substitution measure being used. The added flexibility of the non‐parametric procedure is also capable of uncover ing that the elasticities of substitution vary across countries, groups of countries and time periods.     

Regionalization as ‘experimental regionalism’: the rescaling of territorial policy‐making in Germany

The federal system of intergovernmental relationships in Germany was greatly affected in the 1990s by the increased importance of transnational rationales and by strong orientations to competitiveness in domestic political discourse. New territorial imperatives have given rise to a variety of innovative institutional approaches to policy‐making, the main focus of which is the need to jointly identify new political arenas and new territorial domains for development policies. The result has been a plurality of highly differentiated experimental approaches to regionalization, challenging nested systems of territorial jurisdictions and consolidated policy styles. German initiatives in ‘experimental regionalism’ are addressed in a perspective that highlights their dimension of institutional coevolution in the framework of emerging multi‐level governance practices at a European level: they are hence not only seen as responses to exogenous factors, but also as outcomes of endogenous factors of innovation and change, related to the need for new forms of political regulation in dealing with intergovernmental policy‐making deadlocks and new ‘local’ claims for representation and mobilization. Building on interpretations of regional governance based on a regulationist‐ and state‐theoretical perspective, elaborated in economic and political geography, recent German approaches to ‘experimental regionalism’ are interpreted as new modes of policy‐making that redefine the state's role in political‐economic regulation through a dual process involving a reframing of state‐local relationships and a rescaling of territorial policy arenas. En Allemagne, le système fédéral de relations inter‐gouvernements a énormément changé dans les années 1990 du fait de l'importance croissante de logiques transnationales et de tendances marquées pour la compétitivité dans le discours politique intérieur. De nouveaux impératifs territoriaux ont suscité un éventail d'approches institutionnelles novatrices du pouvoir politique, leur centre d'intérêt étant d'identifier parallèlement de nouvelles arènes politiques et d'autres domaines territoriaux pour les politiques de développement. Il en a résulté de multiples et très distinctes démarches expérimentales à l'égard de la régionalisation, venant défier systèmes imbriqués de prérogatives territoriales et styles de politique publique homogènes. Les initiatives allemandes de ‘régionalisme expérimental‘ sont abordées dans une perspective qui souligne leur co‐évolution institutionnelle au sein de pratiques naissantes de gouvernance à plusieurs niveaux au plan européen: elles sont donc considérées à la fois comme des réponses à des facteurs exogènes et le produit de facteurs endogènes d'innovation et de changement, liés à la nécessité de nouvelles formes de régulation politique pour résoudre les impasses de l'élaboration des politiques intergouvernementales et les nouvelles revendications ‘locales‘ en matière de représentation et mobilisation. Partant d'interprétations de la gouvernance régionale d'un point de vue théorique régulationiste et étatique, dans une géographie économique et politique, ces récentes approches du ‘régionalisme expérimental‘ sont présentées comme de nouveaux modes d'élaboration des politiques, redéfinissant le rôle de l'État dans une régulation politico‐économique via un double processus de recadrage des relations État‐région et de redimensionnement des arènes politiques territoriales.