我国粮食双层流通市场形成与发展的机制分析与影响探讨

与大部分商品一样,现实中的粮食市场往往也是一个多层次的流通市场,其供求关系绝非一个简单的生产者与消费者之间的单层级的市场关系,而是一个包含着生产者、消费者以及多层经销商在内的复杂的市场往来关系。基于我国现阶段粮食市场双层流通体制运作的现状与具体特征,为进一步健全与完善我国的粮食流通体制,现阶段一方面有必要打破国有粮食企业对粮食购销市场的垄断局面和以力争形成竞争、活跃的粮食流通市场;另一方面也要积极培育全国性与区域性的粮食批发市场和积极利用市场机制来配置粮食资源,大力开展省际间的产销协作,鼓励产区与销区建立起长期且稳定的购销关系,支持有条件的企业从事粮食的进出口业务。     

国际进口贸易对我国粮食市场整合的影响——基于国内价格、国际价格和CIF价格的实证分析

本文将CIF价格引入粮价分析,从贸易价格的角度研究了进口贸易对我国粮食市场的影响.通过协整检验和格兰杰因果分析,证明了贸易价格与市场的整合程度没有必然联系,完善了现阶段对粮食贸易与国内粮价的讨论,具有一定参考意义.     

粮食市场的“青龙案例”调研

青龙粮食市场是新型粮食流通市场的典型案例。为了更好地发挥金融业对农产品流通市场的支持作用,我们对青龙粮食市场进行了调查与分析,提出了支持粮食市场发展的建议。     

粮食储备调节的扭曲与矫正

为建立社会主义市场经济体制,我们已开始实行政府储备调节下的粮食自由流通体制,即:在粮食自由流通的基础上,政府建立粮食储备调节体系和风险基金,当粮食市场价格低于预定的最低限价时,政府按预定最低限价即保护价收购粮食;当粮食市场价格高于预定的最高限价时,政府     

粮食流通体制改革对金融业的影响

自1998年以来，国家对粮食流通体制进行了一系列改革，随着改革的不断深入，粮食市场经历了由国家全面控制粮食市场——粮食市场部分开放——市场全面放开的发展过程，粮食收购主体呈现多元化格局，粮食购销企业也实现了从计划经济到市场经济的转型。以市场为导向，以效益为目标的经营理念在粮食购销企业中逐渐形成，粮食企业正朝着激活市场，搞活企业的改革目标逐步靠近，这些变革也使部分金融业务面临着新的机遇和挑战。     

从动态视角探究在岸与离岸市场人民币汇率联动效应

本文在误差修正VECM基础模型上,引入滚动VECM模型和门限VECM模型来深入探究在岸与离岸市场人民币汇率联动效应的时变性以及结构性变化。实证研究发现,在岸与离岸人民币汇率在“8·11汇改”前后呈现不同联动效应,汇率主导地位由离岸市场逐渐转向在岸市场;汇率联动效应也会因两个市场汇价差大小不同而分为两个区制,“正常区制”中市场自我调节能力较强,在岸与离岸汇率基本能维持长期均衡关系,“极端区制”中市场自我调节能力消失,容易出现持续贬值的情况。建议政策制定者持续监测在岸与离岸人民币汇价差变动情况,当汇率处于失衡状态时,可调节在岸和离岸人民币汇价差回到“正常区制”,再依靠市场自我调节功能重回均衡。     

粮食市场化改革进程中粮食信贷管理调整的难点和对策

当前,我国粮食生产稳定,粮食市场总量供求基本平衡,粮食市场价格趋稳,已经具备加快粮食购销市场化改革的条件.在粮食购销市场化改革的过程中,农发行粮食信贷管理的政策基础、市场环境和企业条件将会发生很大的变化,粮食信贷管理随之会遇到一些新问题、新情况,因而应该加以研究,及时调整.     

进口贸易对粮食安全的影响研究——基于财政支农与农业保险的调节效应分析

本文通过整合省级粮食进口数据并构建粮食安全指标体系，从中国粮食供给侧进口端出发，探究粮食进口规模、粮食进口价格和粮食进口渠道的变化是否会对我国粮食安全产生影响，并考察国内农业保障制度是否对该影响机制存在调节效用。研究结果表明：粮食进口规模的增加、粮食进口价格波动的减缓以及粮食进口来源国的扩展对粮食安全存在正向促进作用。财政支农和农业保险可以在粮食进口规模保障国内粮食供给的基础上，进一步稳定国家粮食自给率，助力我国粮食安全水平。财政支农负向调节了进口粮价波动对粮食安全的削弱作用，在一定程度上保障了我国粮食安全，但农业保险尚不能起到降低国际粮价对国内粮食安全冲击的作用。在国内资源稀缺性和国际市场不确定性的双重约束下，本文为我国充分利用两个市场和两种资源，提升粮食市场国内国外双循环互促动力提供了重要的理论依据。     

央行如何实现汇率政策目标——基于在岸-离岸人民币汇率联动的研究

本文采用门限误差修正模型,将外汇市场2010年11月至2015年11月期间在岸与离岸人民币汇率联动关系划分到两个区制。作者发现:⑴当在岸-离岸汇差小于门限值时,市场处于“均衡区制”,在岸汇率对离岸汇率具有引导作用,市场自我调节机制重建长期均衡关系速度较快。⑵当在岸-离岸汇差大于门限值时,市场处于“偏离区制”,离岸汇率呈现均值回归特征,在岸市场呈现“追涨杀跌”特征,人民币汇率失衡严重。在岸市场的投机性使汇差进一步扩大,通过市场机制重建长期均衡关系需要的时间更长。⑶若中央银行以维持外汇市场“均衡区制”作为汇率政策目标,有效推动“偏离区制”向“均衡区制”回归,则可引导市场预期,使市场自我调节机制更好地发挥作用。     

关于粮食顺价销售问题的若干思考

九十年代中期以来,我国粮食市场发生 了较大的变化。在这种情况下,政府不能继续像粮食短缺时期那样来制定粮食的收购政策和价格政策,实行粮食顺价销售政策就成为一种必然的选择。但在实施顺价销售的过程中也引发了一系列问题：价格过高形成市场竞争中的劣势;传统定价方式难以适应多变的市场环境;服务功能尚未得到充分拓展;相应配套扶持措施有待继续完善;进口粮食在一定程度上抑制国内粮价。为此,应合理确定保护价水平,增强粮食企业定价的灵活性,提高粮食产品的附加值,发挥国有粮食企业的主渠道作用。     

中国粮食产品进出口情况与国内粮食价格的相关性分析

本文以玉米、小麦、稻谷和大豆四种具有典型代表意义的粮食作物为例,分析了我国粮食进出口情况与国内粮价的关系。结果认为,除大豆外,我国粮食作物的进出口情况是由市场主导,政府同时起到了一定的影响作用。因此,我国粮食进出口格局的改变是粮价涨跌的结果。国内粮价的涨跌主要是国内供需关系改变导致的。     

MARKET BEHAVIOR OF GRAINS EXPORTERS

This article develops and tests several models of market behaviorover the 1965–81 period to identify the market behaviorof each of the five largest grain exporters in rice, wheat,and coarse grains. The results show that the United States hasexerted price leadership in the rice and coarse grains markets.The remaining major exporters in these markets have behavedin a manner consistent with a small-country exporter model inwhich their market demand is perceived to be perfectly elasticat the world price set by the dominant exporter. The resultsfor wheat suggest a shared dominance between the United States,Canada, and Australia, with the European Community and Argentinabehaving as small-country exporters. The short-run export supply curves for the five largest exportersappear to be very unresponsive to price. For rice, only Japan'sexports were found to have a significant and positive responseto an increase in the world export price. For wheat and coarsegrains, only the United States' exports were estimated to bepositively and significantly related to the export price. An important implication of the current market behavior of themajor exporters is that the opportunity exists for all otherexporters to sell all they can at the world price. However,a significant risk exists that the United States will stop supportingthe world price through its loan rate mechanism. A provisionfor such a change, the crop marketing loan provision, was includedin the Food Security Act of 1985 for wheat and coarse grainsand has already been implemented for rice.      

Price discovery in Taiwan's foreign exchange market

This paper investigates the dynamics of price adjustments and the price discovery roles of two markets on Taiwan's foreign exchange, TFI and CFE. Results from the multivariate threshold model indicate prices are integrated nonlinearly. The roles of price discovery are asymmetric, depending on the size and sign of the price discrepancies between the two markets. In the lower regime of discrepancies, each market employs information from its counterpart and reacts to each other with different adjustment speeds. When the discrepancy is in the upper regime, CFE's role of price discovery is characterized by its exogenous behavior within the error-correction process.     

Issuer surplus and the partial adjustment of IPO prices to public information

This study develops a model in which rational issuers maximize the expected surplus from going public by choosing an offer price that weighs the benefit of higher proceeds if the offer is completed against the cost of foregone surplus if the offer fails. Increases in the market valuation of comparable firms during the waiting period imply higher surplus associated with going public; issuers respond with a partial revision in the offer price to elevate the probability of completion. The model offers insights into many facts associated with initial public offering pricing, including partial adjustment to market returns, the inverse relation between withdrawal and market returns, the asymmetric price adjustment to up versus down market returns, hot-issue markets, and unconditional underpricing.     

The Determinants of Execution Costs in Short‐Term Money Markets

Prior research attributes the observed negative relation between execution costs and trade size in opaque markets to two factors—information asymmetry and broker‐client relationships. We provide evidence that a trader's ex ante transaction price information and the relationship traders have with their brokers are both significant determinants of a trader's execution costs in an opaque market; however, traders who establish strong relationships with their brokers will achieve a greater reduction in execution costs than traders with ex ante transaction price information. We also find evidence that trade size has little explanatory power after controlling for a trader's ex ante transaction price information and broker‐client relationships.     

Price uncertainty and vertical integration: an examination of petrochemical firms

The petrochemical industry employs assets subject to temporal and site specificity. The OPEC oil price shocks of the 1970s made it difficult to write contracts covering business dealings in the industry. I use this production and economic setting as a natural experiment to test transaction cost theory. In support of the theory, I find that input price uncertainty in the 1970s positively affected the extent of vertical integration by firms into input stages. Moreover, the positive reaction of vertical integration to price uncertainty mainly occurs in transactions subject to asset specificity. I also examine price controls and market power as alternative explanations for vertical integration in the industry, but fail to find support for these hypotheses.     

Asymmetric Volume‐Return Relation and Concentrated Trading in LIFFE Futures

This study demonstrates that intraday volume and return on LIFFE interest rate and currency futures exhibit an asymmetric volume‐return relationship characterised by significantly larger volume associated with negative returns than with non‐negative returns. This finding is unlike the stylised asymmetric relation often observed in equity markets, where the volume on price rise is larger than the volume on price decline. The asymmetric relationship in LIFFE futures is also found to be dynamic as the direction of asymmetry can reverse during the day. It has been argued in the past that a costly short sale restriction that requires a higher transaction cost on a short position than on a long position is responsible for the asymmetric effect in equity markets. Since such a restriction is absent in futures markets, they should not exhibit any asymmetric volume behaviour. Based on the results of this research, the costly short sale hypothesis is rejected. An alternative explanation of the asymmetric relation observed in futures is presented based on recent information models that take into consideration asymmetrically‐informed traders, their dispersion of beliefs, quality and quantity of the information signal, and how the traders process it. The paper also confirms a strong U‐shape trading pattern in 15‐minute volume, but no such pattern is identified in intraday returns.     

An empirical study on the regulated Chinese agricultural commodity futures market based on skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model

This paper describes the regulated agricultural commodity futures market of China, focusing on six actively traded futures: corn, strong gluten wheat, No. 1 soybean, soymeal, cotton, and white sugar. A novel skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model is employed to characterize price dynamics with government controls. The empirical analysis reveals significant skew phenomena in these six futures and indicates that the price dynamics are influenced by state policy. The observed skew phenomena are most notable in grain futures, with relatively weaker, but statistically significant, evidence of skew phenomena in oilseed and soft futures markets. In addition, generalized quasi-likelihood ratio tests show that the skew Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model is superior to the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model.     

Managerial discretion and agency cost in Indian market

This paper investigates empirically the impact of managerial discretion on agency cost from the perspective of SG&A cost asymmetry and examines how corporate governance moderates this relationship. The analysis shows mixed evidence in favor for cost behavior and managerial choices in the Indian market. The cost asymmetry involves not only cost stickiness but also the anti-sticky behavior of SG&A cost under certain circumstances. The main drivers for this disparity are owing to manager's resource adjustment decision, the future expectation of sales and managers' empire-building behavior. Furthermore, findings suggest that strong corporate governance alleviates empire-building behavior of managers. Additional analysis shows, the asymmetric behavior of SG&A cost in crisis period is mainly a result of managers' resource adjustment decision and future expectation of sales change. Manager's empire-building behavior does not play an explicit role in this period. Next, the findings show that managers' discretion is influenced by future value creation potential of SG&A cost. Manager's empire-building behavior is more pronounced in low-value creation sample firms compared to high-value creation sample. Thus, manager's choice for resource adjustment decision and empire-building behavior changes according to the future value creation of SG&A cost, financial conditions and corporate governance mechanisms in Indian companies. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study performed in Indian capital market where the SG&A cost asymmetry tests the managers' empire-building behavior. Overall, findings of the study indicate manager's resource adjustment decisions and empire-building behavior caused by their consideration and this results in a form of agency costs. In comparison with developed markets, Indian markets have relatively less agency problem due to managerial empire-building behavior.     

Do retail gasoline prices respond asymmetrically to cost shocks? The influence of Edgeworth Cycles

Asymmetric price cycles similar to Edgeworth Cycles are appearing in increasingly many retail gasoline markets in the United States and worldwide. The asymmetry in the cycles can give rise to a finding of asymmetric price responses to cost shocks (asymmetric passthrough). This article estimates asymmetric passthrough for the market of Toronto, which exhibits cycles, and decomposes it into two components—that part explainable by the cycles and that part driven by other unknown sources. Significant asymmetric passthrough is found, with increases passed through more quickly than decreases. A significant cause of the finding is the presence of the cycles themselves.