International foreign exchange agreements and nominal exchange rate volatility: a GARCH application

For eight major national currencies, this study estimates, and tests several hypotheses with, a t-distribution GARCH model of daily spot nominal exchange rate changes. The sample period covered is June 1, 1982 through September 30, 1992. By using likelihood ratio and parameter stability tests, it finds that for most of the currencies considered, both the conditional means and variances of unexpected exchange rate changes experienced statistically significant structural breaks across the five subperiods that are associated with four episodes of international foreign-exchange policy coordination. The study also finds that the orderings of the GARCH-estimated unconditional standard deviations roughly match the orderings of the sample standard deviations across the five subperiods. An explanation is provided for what underlying factors contributed to these structural shifts.     

Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility

We investigate the empirical relevance of structural breaks for GARCH models of exchange rate volatility using both in‐sample and out‐of‐sample tests. We find significant evidence of structural breaks in the unconditional variance of seven of eight US dollar exchange rate return series over the 1980–2005 period—implying unstable GARCH processes for these exchange rates—and GARCH(1,1) parameter estimates often vary substantially across the subsamples defined by the structural breaks. We also find that it almost always pays to allow for structural breaks when forecasting exchange rate return volatility in real time. Combining forecasts from different models that accommodate structural breaks in volatility in various ways appears to offer a reliable method for improving volatility forecast accuracy given the uncertainty surrounding the timing and size of the structural breaks. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bootstrap refinements for QML estimators of the GARCH(1,1) parameters

This paper reconsiders a block bootstrap procedure for Quasi Maximum Likelihood estimation of GARCH models, based on the resampling of the likelihood function, as proposed by Gonçalves and White [2004. Maximum likelihood and the bootstrap for nonlinear dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 119, 199–219]. First, we provide necessary conditions and sufficient conditions, in terms of moments of the innovation process, for the existence of the Edgeworth expansion of the GARCH(1,1) estimator, up to the k$k$-th term. Second, we provide sufficient conditions for higher order refinements for equally tailed and symmetric test statistics. In particular, the bootstrap estimator based on resampling the likelihood has the same higher order improvements in terms of error in the rejection probabilities as those in Andrews [2002. Higher-order improvements of a computationally attractive k$k$-step bootstrap for extremum estimators. Econometrica 70, 119–162].     

A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?

We compare 330 ARCH‐type models in terms of their ability to describe the conditional variance. The models are compared out‐of‐sample using DM–$ exchange rate data and IBM return data, where the latter is based on a new data set of realized variance. We find no evidence that a GARCH(1,1) is outperformed by more sophisticated models in our analysis of exchange rates, whereas the GARCH(1,1) is clearly inferior to models that can accommodate a leverage effect in our analysis of IBM returns. The models are compared with the test for superior predictive ability (SPA) and the reality check for data snooping (RC). Our empirical results show that the RC lacks power to an extent that makes it unable to distinguish ‘good’ and ‘bad’ models in our analysis. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A flexible parametric GARCH model with an application to exchange rates

Many asset prices, including exchange rates, exhibit periods of stability punctuated by infrequent, substantial, often one‐sided adjustments. Statistically, this generates empirical distributions of exchange rate changes that exhibit high peaks, long tails, and skewness. This paper introduces a GARCH model, with a flexible parametric error distribution based on the exponential generalized beta (EGB) family of distributions. Applied to daily US dollar exchange rate data for six major currencies, evidence based on a comparison of actual and predicted higher‐order moments and goodness‐of‐fit tests favours the GARCH‐EGB2 model over more conventional GARCH‐t and EGARCH‐t model alternatives, particularly for exchange rate data characterized by skewness. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

How oil price and exchange rate affect stock price in China using Bayesian Quantile_on_Quantile with GARCH approach

We revisit the links of real exchange rate, oil price and stock market price for China using Bayesian Multivariate Quantile_on_Quantile with GARCH approach over the period of September 14, 2001 to June 17, 2022 (a total of 4051 days). Results indicate both the links between stock price and oil price and between stock price and exchange rate varying under different combinations of quantiles. GARCH model also indicate that yesterday news and persistence measures varying with current conditional variance under different quantiles. We further estimate half-life of a shock to our whole markets and find out the half-life of a shock range from 0.415 to 4.015 days. Result not found in previous study. Our study has important policy implications for the investors, practitioners, and the government.     

Real exchange rate misalignment: Prelude to crisis?

A model of the long-run equilibrium real exchange rate based upon macroeconomic fundamentals is employed to calculate real exchange rate misalignments for Poland and Russia during the 1990s using the Beveridge and Nelson (Beveridge, S., Nelson, C., 1981. A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle. J. Monetary Econ. 7, 151–74) decomposition of macrofundamentals into transitory and permanent components. Short-run movements of the real exchange rate are estimated with ARIMA and GARCH error correction specifications. The different nominal exchange rate regimes of the two countries generate different levels of misalignment and different responses to exogenous shocks. The average misalignment in Russia is substantially greater than that in Poland, indicating incipient pressures to devalue the ruble immediately preceding the August 1998 crisis. The half-life of an exogenous shock is found to be much shorter for Poland than for Russia in the pre-crisis period. Dynamic forecasts indicate that the movements of the real exchange rate in the post-crisis period are significantly different from those in the pre-crisis period. Thus, the currency crisis in Russia could not be anticipated with the movements of the real exchange rate estimated with the macroeconomic fundamentals.     

A multivariate GARCH in mean approach to testing uncovered interest parity: evidence from Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets

The existence of time-varying risk premia in deviations from uncovered interest parity (UIP) is investigated based on a conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) using data from four Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets. A parsimonious multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity in mean (GARCH-M) parameterization is employed to model the conditional covariance matrix of excess returns. The empirical results indicate that when each currency is estimated separately with an univariate GARCH-M parameterization, no evidence of time-varying risk premia is found except Malaysian ringgit. However, when all currencies are estimated simultaneously with the multivariate GARCH-M parameterization, strong evidence of time-varying risk premia is detected. As a result, the evidence supports the idea that deviations from UIP are due to a risk premium and not to irrationality among market participants. In addition, the empirical evidence found in this study points out that simply modeling the conditional second moments is not sufficient enough to explain the dynamics of the risk premia. A time-varying price of risk is still needed in addition to the conditional volatility. Finally, significant asymmetric world market volatility shocks are found in Asia-Pacific foreign exchange markets.     

企业防范汇率风险对策

随着社会主义市场经济体制的建立,企业经营自主权的扩大,企业所面临的各种风险相应增大。特别是国家对企业的外贸经营权的放开,对于外向型企业来说,有一个汇率风险问题。近年来国内外外汇市场波动剧烈,为了避免遭受不必要的损失,企业应采取积极的防范措施。本文旨在对影响汇率波动的主要因素、汇率风险在我国对外经贸活动中的表现及防范汇率风险的方法等问题,作一番简明的分析和总结。     

The relative size of exchange rate and interest rate responses to news: An empirical investigation

This paper examines the relative size of the effects of macroeconomic news on the spot exchange rate, and interest rate differentials (2- and 5-year swap rate differentials), and the synthetic forward exchange rate schedule, for the high-frequency New Zealand data. We find that the spot exchange rate and 5-year swap rates respond by a similar magnitude to monetary surprises, implying there is little response of the forward exchange rate to this type of news. In contrast, the spot exchange rate responds by nearly three times as much as 5-year interest rates to CPI and GDP surprises, implying that forward rates appreciate to higher than expected CPI or GDP news. This is in contrast to standard theoretical models and US evidence. Lastly, we show that exchange rates but not interest rates respond to current account news. The implications of these results for monetary policy are considered.     

Relationship between oil,stock prices and exchange rates: A vine copula based GARCH method

In this paper, we apply a vine copula approach to investigate the dynamic relationship between energy, stock and currency markets. Dependence modeling using vine copulas offers a greater flexibility and permits the modeling of complex dependency patterns for high-dimensional distributions. Using a sample of more than 10 years of daily return observations of the WTI crude oil, the Dow Jones Industrial average stock index and the trade weighted US dollar index returns, we find evidence of a significant and symmetric relationship between these variables. Considering different sample periods show that the dynamic of the relationship between returns is not constant over time. Our results indicate also that the dependence structure is highly affected by the financial crisis and Great Recession, over 2007–2009. Finally, there is evidence to suggest that the application of the vine copula model improves the accuracy of VaR estimates, compared to traditional approaches.     

Hierarchical Markov normal mixture models with applications to financial asset returns

Motivated by the common problem of constructing predictive distributions for daily asset returns over horizons of one to several trading days, this article introduces a new model for time series. This model is a generalization of the Markov normal mixture model in which the mixture components are themselves normal mixtures, and it is a specific case of an artificial neural network model with two hidden layers. The article uses the model to construct predictive distributions of daily S&P 500 returns 1971–2005 and one‐year maturity bond returns 1987–2007. For these time series the model compares favorably with ARCH and stochastic volatility models. The article concludes by using the model to form predictive distributions of one‐ to ten‐day returns during volatile episodes for the S&P 500 and bond return series. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of asymmetric response of exchange rate to interest rate differentials: The case of African Big 4

Using the case of four leading African economies, namely Algeria, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, this paper explores the possibility of asymmetric relationship between exchange rate and interest rate differential. In addition, it also tests whether accounting for structural breaks matters for the nexus. The results vary for the four countries based on the choice of exchange rate regime and countries involved in full-fledged floating or managed floating seem to respond more to variations in interest rate differential. Also, accounting for both asymmetries and structural breaks should not be disregarded when modelling this nexus.     

Comparing exchange rate forecasting models: Accuracy versus profitability

In this paper we compare the rankings of alternative exchange rate forecasting models using two different evaluation criteria: forecast accuracy and profitability in forward market speculation. Either or both of these criteria may be useful to the practitioner depending on the forecasting application. We use both time-series and static and dynamic structural models to construct forecasts for the Canadian dollar/U.S. dollar and German mark/U.S. dollar exchange rates over the period 1976 :12–1984: 9. Our results confirm earlier findings that simple time-series models such as the random walk rank highest in forecast accuracy. The random walk also ranks high in terms of profitability for the German mark, but for the Canadian dollar the profitability rankings are quite different than the accuracy results. For both currencies we find that some models are very profitable in forward speculation, which is evidence against the speculative efficiency hypothesis but may be consistent with the existence of risk premia in foreign exchange markets.     

人民币汇率:缓解升值压力,加快制度改革

近一段时间人民币汇率在内外因的共同作用下升值压力巨大,盯住美元的固定汇率制度已经不符合当前中国的经济形势,但是完全放开人民币汇率让其自由浮动在现有条件下也是行不通的,以市场供求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制度才是目前的最佳选择。     

Error correction exchange rate modeling: Evidence for Mexico

A set of error correction models are proposed for the nominal exchange rate between the Mexican peso and the United States dollar. The basic theoretical frameworks utilize balance of payments and monetary constructs. Empirical estimation results are fairly weak for both specifications irrespective of the interest rate variable selected. Although dynamic simulation properties of the equations are acceptable, in no case do they generate levels of accuracy that exceed those associated with a random walk. Partial funding support for this research was provided by El Paso Electric Company, the Fulbright Council for International Exchange of Scholars, the Center for Inter American and Border Studies at the University of Texas at El Paso, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Econometric research assistance was provided by David Torres and Roberto Tinajero. Helpful comments were provided by two anonymous referees, Joachim Zietz, Luis Berrnardo Torres, and participants at the 2001 American Statistical Association meetings in Atlanta.     

Real exchange rate behaviour: evidence from black markets

The behaviour of real exchange rates (relative to the US dollar) is examined using monthly data obtained from the black markets for foreign exchange of eight Asian developing countries. The data span is 31 years. The black market real exchange rates do not show excess volatility during the recent float which is in sharp contrast to the results reported elsewhere. Unit root tests in heterogeneous panels and variance ratio tests confirm their stationarity. Thus, we find support for PPP but not for the ‘survivorship’ bias (Froot and Rogoff, 1995 ). There is little evidence of segmented trends. Issues raised by Rogoff ( 1996 )—of whether PPP would hold across countries with differing growth experience—and Lothian and Taylor ( 1996 )—of whether the degree of relative price volatility may bias results in favour of mean reverting real exchange rates—are addressed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

人民币汇率:缓解升值压力,加快制度改革

近一段时间人民币汇率在内外因的共同作用下升值压力巨大,盯住美元的固定汇率制度已经不符合当前中国的经济形势,但是完全放开人民币汇率让其自由浮动在现有条件下也是行不通的,以市场供求为基础的有管理的浮动汇率制度才是目前的最佳选择.