India’s Green Revolution: Economic Gains and Political Costs

Research and development (R&;D) promotion policies are critical for economic development in the sense that they contribute to technical progress. Although it is true that policy space is restricted under the World Trade Organization (WTO) system, there are still some R&;D promotion policy measures made available to developing countries. It is thus necessary for developing countries to utilize such available measures. In addition to explaining the R&;D promotion measures available under the current WTO regulations, I provide suggestions for modifying the Uruguay Round Subsidies Code with respect to the R&;D promotion policies of developing countries from the viewpoint of “distributional fairness” in international trade relations.     

The U.S. Social Security System: What Does Political Sustainability Imply?

This paper examines how political constraints can shape the social security system under different demographics. A steady-state mapping between relevant economic and demographic variables and the social security tax rate resulting from a majority voting is provided. I calibrate an OLG model to the U.S. economy. Calculations using census population and survival probabilities projections and 1961–96 labor productivity growth deliver a social security tax rate of 13.3% (currently 11.2%) and a 54% replacement ratio (51.7%). This result reflects the median voter's aging, from 44 to 46 years, which dominates the decrease in the dependency ratio, from 5.45 to 4.72. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H55, E17, D72.     

India’s Economic and Strategic Perceptions of China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative

The Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI) is a part of China’s experiment in scaling up economic corridors across vast swathes of diverse economic geographies. China’s involvement in a large number of ongoing transport corridor projects has encouraged it to embark on the most ambitious of them all till date. The heterogeneity among the economic capacities and integrations of various regions constituting the MSRI, particularly in efficiency of infrastructure and ability to trade, is noticeable. This article underscores these variations as important determinants of competitiveness of the constituent regions and countries. India’s perceptions of the MSRI are significantly shaped by its lack of quality maritime infrastructure capacities that make it relatively uncompetitive vis-à-vis China, Europe and most of Southeast Asia; and the impression of the MSRI’s “China-centrality” emanating from lack of mention of non-China regional forums in the Chinese government’s vision statement; and absence of proactive measures from the Chinese leadership in establishing the MSRI’s multi-country character. The article argues that it is important for India to appreciate the geopolitical character of this unprecedented infrastructure initiative, which, while emphasizing Chinese interests, might not be inimical to India’s economic ambitions, provided India is able to address its domestic infrastructure imperatives.     

Developing Countries’ Net-migration: The Impact of Economic Opportunities,Disasters, Conflicts,and Political Instability

We provide regressions for the net immigration flows of developing countries. We show that (i) savings finance emigration and worker remittances serve to make staying rather than migrating possible; (ii) lagged dependent migration flows have a negative sign in the presence of migration stock variables; (iii) stocks of migrants in six OECD countries and in the developing countries have non-linear effects. Some of the non-linear effects of the economic variables vanish if indicators for disasters, conflicts and political instability are taken into account but new ones come in for these latter variables.     

Currency depreciations and the U.S.–Italian trade balance: Industry-level estimates

As one of the indebted Southern European countries that have put pressure on the Euro in recent months, Italy would benefit from a reduction in its external trade deficit. One channel could be through a weakening of its currency—which would only work if the Euro depreciated against the currency of an outside importer, such as the U.S. dollar. This study examines the response of the trade balances of 106 individual industries to such depreciations, using annual data and applying cointegration analysis. We find that only 19 industries register a long-run improvement, with these concentrated in miscellaneous manufactures (SITC sector 8). Two major products in the automotive industry—petroleum and road motor vehicles, show evidence of a “J-curve” effect.     

Not everybody prefers organic food: unobserved heterogeneity in U.S. consumers’ preference for organic apple and milk

Despite organic food’s growing market share and the often-found premiums for organic foods in willingness-to-pay studies, the ultimate size of the organic food market remains unclear. Due to perceived taste, safety or appearance, some people may, in fact, not prefer organic. This study uses data from choice experiments to determine preference for organic versus conventional milk and apples. Using latent class and random parameter models, nontrivial shares (at least 33%) of consumers in both markets are not willing to pay a premium for organic. These results have implications for food marketers but also for economists modelling the organic food sector, which typically assume vertical differentiation.     

Economic Growth,Happiness and Socialism: Durkheim’s Critique of Economic Reason and Beyond

The paper argues that Durkheim’s positions on happiness and socialism are relevant in today’s neoliberal and post-affluent societies. Durkheim dissociates happiness from economic progress and makes it contingent upon the relationships between the individual and society. An important component of Durkheimian happiness is the dynamic equilibrium between desires and means. Therefore, his friendly criticism of the socialist project is that it promises to fulfil the desires that were released by a disembedded market economy. Durkheim’s point helps us to understand why the social democratic promise was broken and how the neoliberal imperatives of competition and unlimited wants sow unhappiness.     

Employers’ Estimates of Market Wages: Implications for Wage Discrimination in the U.S.

In the U.S., public and private employers often survey each other’s wages in order to estimate the prevailing “market wage” for a job. I examine this process to see how it can lead to underpaying women, relying on a 1989 study of government wage-setting in the State of Washington and my own study of government wage-setting in the State of California. Gender biases can appear because numerous decisions are involved in each step of the process, and these decisions are often influenced by the gendered social and political environment, including the different levels of political organization of male and female employees.     

The U.S. Department of Commerce’s approach to targeted dumping: the wrong test and the wrong response

The U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) defines targeted dumping as a pattern of significant differences in the prices that importers charge in the U.S. to different purchasers, in different regions, or during different periods. If DOC finds targeted dumping, then it calculates the average dumping margin using zeroing, a practice that increases the calculated dumping duty. This article shows that DOC is using an inappropriate statistical test in targeted dumping investigations. The article also shows that a finding of targeted dumping does not justify the use of zeroing, an inherently flawed methodology that DOC has discarded in cases without targeted dumping.     

West Africa’s Evolving Competitive Exposure in U.S. Import Markets

This study utilizes a recently developed measure of one nation’s competitive exposure to other nations on its export sales to analyze the competitive exposure facing West Africa nations on sales to the United States from 1996 to 2006. The methodology extends previous research by accounting both for similarity in export profiles across nations and for the absolute size of export sales by each nation. We identify changes over time in the importance of different world regions as competitors to West Africa nations, and we highlight the product groups most responsible for West Africa’s competitive exposure to other world regions on sales in the United States.     

Effects of packers’ inventory and market power on price adjustments in the U.S. beef industry

This study examines effects of packers’ inventory and market power on their price adjustment behaviour in the U.S. beef industry. Econometric model used in the study allows inventory and market power variables to influence the speed-of-adjustment parameters in a three-regime threshold error-correction model. Results show that the two variables have a statistically significant impact on packers’ price adjustment behaviour when price decreases but not when price increases. When price decreases, inventory tends to accelerate the adjustment process whereas packers’ market power slows down the adjustment process. The hypothesis of symmetric adjustment towards long-run equilibrium during increasing and decreasing phases of price is not rejected when the effects of inventory and market power are considered in explaining packers’ price adjustment behaviour. However, when these two effects are ignored in the model specification, the hypothesis of symmetry is rejected such that the speed of adjustment in the increasing phase of price is faster than the adjustment speed in the decreasing phase of price, i.e. ‘rockets and feathers’ effect.     

Centralized Private Sector Planning: An Institutionalist’s Perspective on the Contemporary U.S. Economy

It is well accepted among Institutionalist and Post Keynesian scholars that portfolio investment markets are driven by agents' expectations rather than "the fundamentals." This explains, it is argued, why asset and currency prices are so much more volatile than and often clearly out of line with what we would otherwise consider to be their underlying determinants. What is rarely addressed, however, is how those expectations are formed. This paper fills the void by proposing a specific view of agents' expectations based on the mental model they employ to understand currency movements. The paper derives this schematic by examining market participants' psychological propensities and the world view of the subculture of which they are members. It will be shown that the model is consistent with the salient features of the foreign exchange market and it is employed to explain the dollar's fall from 2001 through 2008.     

U.S. Welfare Reform: What's Relevant for Europe?

This paper reviews the U.S. welfare reform efforts over the1990s and the effects of these reforms to date. Seven "lessons"of potential interest to European observers are discussed, withparticular attention to the conclusions of more recent research.Such research indicates, for example, that more effective programscontain both positive and negative incentives, utilise work-firstas well as job training programs, and provide some importantsupports beyond just job and work skills. The paper ends withsome speculations about why European policy-makers are becomingmore interested in U.S. welfare reform experiments than theyhave been in the past. (JEL I3, J2, H1)     

Currency fluctuations and the French–U.S. trade balance: evidence from 118 industries

The impact of currency depreciations on trade has inspired a large body of research. Recent studies have examined industry-level trade, often using cointegration analysis, finding that a significant fraction of industries respond positively to devaluations. Oftentimes, adjustment lags result in a “J curve” effect, where devaluations hurt the trade balance temporarily. This study examines the specific case of trade between the United States and France, but finds that these flows are less sensitive than has been shown for other country pairs. Only 30 of 118 industries see increased trade balances after a dollar depreciation, and virtually none follow any type of a “J curve.” Certain industry sectors are more sensitive than others, however. Examining the SITC classifications of those 30 industries, we find that many of them are clustered in the SITC 700 (Machinery and Transport Equipment) and 800 (Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles) categories. In particular, clothing and footwear, as well as electrical equipment, are particularly affected.