A Survey of Capital Budgeting Techniques in the Public and Private Sectors of a Less Developed Country (LDC)

ABSTRACT

This study surveys the capital budgeting practice in private and commercially-oriented public sector enterprises in the Sudan, an African Less Developed Country (LDC). The study attempts to fill a gap in the existing literature by documenting the capital budgeting practice in an LDC where the economic environment is different than the developed and developing counterparts and where public sector still plays a major role in the economy.

The study found a sizable number of commercially-oriented public corporations that do not use capital budgeting techniques in their capital investment decisions while the majority of private sector companies use these methods. Among the corporations that use capital budgeting methods, both in the public and private sector, the payback method (PB) is the most widely used method, followed by the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Net Present Value (NPV) in the private sector and the public sector respectively.

The study also revealed additional factors such as cost, size, quality, experience and hard currency requirements that affect the capital budgeting process in both sectors. However, there are differences in the level of importance of these factors between the two sectors.     

Investment and Arbitrage Opportunities with Short Sales Constraints

In this paper we consider a family of investment projects defined by their deterministic cash flows. We assume stationarity—that is, projects available today are the same as those available in the past. In this framework, we prove that the absence of arbitrage opportunities is equivalent to the existence of a discount rate such that the net present value of all projects is nonpositive if the projects cannot be sold short and is equal to zero otherwise. Our result allows for an infinite number of projects and for continuous as well as discrete cash flows, generalizing similar results established by Cantor and Lippman (1983, 1995) and Adler and Gale (1997) in a discrete time framework and for a finite number of projects.     

Venture capital investing by information technology companies: Did it pay?

While corporate venture capital programs offer prospects for direct financial returns and strategic benefits, there is little evidence regarding whether they deliver economically significant value to sponsoring firms. We take an initial step in addressing this question by evaluating direct returns of programs of U.S. information technology companies during 1990–2002. Direct gains (losses) were widely dispersed and bimodally distributed, based on IRR and net cash flow metrics. Timing of initiation within the venture capital cycle; program scale; and annual investment, write-down, and harvest behavior were associated with differences in returns. We also explore how program characteristics may relate to their attractiveness as platforms from which to pursue strategic benefits.     

Corporate Legitimacy and Investment–Cash Flow Sensitivity

This study provides novel evidence of the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) on investment sensitivity to cash flows. We posit that CSR affects investment–cash flow sensitivity (ICFS) through information asymmetry and agency costs, commonly viewed as the two channels through which investment responds to the availability of internal cash flows. We find that CSR performance leads to a decrease in ICFS. We further find that ICFS decreases (increases) when CSR strengths (concerns) increase. Finally, we find that the effect of CSR on ICFS is driven by the areas Community, Diversity, and Human Rights. In sum, the findings of this study stress the relevance of CSR—in particular, of CSR activities that extend beyond compliance behavior and reflect what is desired by society—in reducing market frictions and improving firms’ access to financial capital.     

Applicability of the Classic WACC Concept in Practice

ABSTRACT

A large percentage of companies use the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach as the primary technique for investment/project evaluation and the capital budgeting process. This approach requires forecasting the detailed cash flow of the project under evaluation and then discounting the resulting cash flow to the present value (Net Present Value–NPV) using an appropriate discount rate.

The discount rate commonly used represents the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of the firm. There is no scarcity of literature on this subject as the concept has been around for the last 50 years or so. Although most analysts believe the concept is simple and very well known, the irony is that its misinterpretation and misuse prevails. There are many versions of the WACC equation and each is specific to a certain cash flow. Therefore, using the classic WACC relationship in all cases may result in the calculation of an overly optimistic NPV. Depending on the cash flow pattern, the investment may show a positive NPV at the classic WACC but it will actually be losing equity.

This paper highlights (a) pitfalls and misuses of the WACC, (b) interdependence between types of cash flow and WACC, (c) assumptions behind the WACC and whether these assumptions are realistic, and (d) alternative approaches to arrive at the correct net present value (NPV). Company CEOs, management, analysts, and other investors using the WACC for investment decisions need to be fully aware of its pitfalls and misuses.

RESUMEN. Un gran porcentaje de empresas usan el enfoque del flujo de caja descontado (DCF–discounted cash flow), como la técnica principal para evaluar las inversiones/proyectos y el proceso de elaboración del presupuesto de capital. Este enfoque exige la proyección detallada del flujo de caja del proyecto bajo análisis y, a continuación, el redescuento del flujo de caja resultante al valor actual-Valor Actual Neto (Net Present Value–NPV) utilizando una tasa de redescuento apropiada.

La tasa de descuento comúnmente utilizada representa el Costo de Capital Medio Ponderado (Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) de la empresa. No falta literatura a este respecto, ya que el concepto ha existido ya alrededor de 50 años. Aunque la mayoría de los analistas creen que el mismo es simple y muy conocido, irónicamente, lo que prevalece es su mala interpretación y uso equivocado. Existen muchas versiones sobre la ecuación WACC, y cada una se identifica con un flujo de caja específico. Consecuentemente, el uso de la relación WACC clásica puede resultar, en todos los casos, en un cálculo de NPV exageradamente optimista. Dependiendo del tipo de flujo de caja, la inversión puede mostrar un NPV positivo con un WACC clásico, cuando en realidad estará perdiendo patrimonio.

Este documento coloca en destaque (a) escollos y mal uso del WACC, (b) interdependencia entre el tipo de flujo de caja y el WACC, (c) presunciones por detrás del WACC, y si ellas son realistas, y (d) mostrar enfoques alternativos para llegar al valor actual neto correcto (NPV). El CEO de la empresa, su gerencia, analistas y otros inversores usarán el WACC para tomar decisiones inherentes a la inversión.

RESUMO. Uma grande porcentagem das empresas usa a abordagem do fluxo de caixa descontado (DCF) como técnica básica de avaliação de investimentos/projetos e do processo de orçamentação de capital. Essa abordagem requer que se preveja o fluxo de caixa detalhado do projeto sob avaliação e, depois, desconte o fluxo de caixa resultante para obter o valor presente líquido (NPV) usando uma taxa de desconto apropriada.

A taxa de desconto geralmente usada representa o Custo de Capital Médio Ponderado (WACC–Weighted Average Cost of Capital) da empresa. A literatura sobre este tema é abundante, já que o conceito existe há uns 50 anos. Embora a maioria dos analistas considere o conceito simples e bem conhecido, o fato é que erros de interpretação e utilização predominam. Existem muitas vers$oTes da equação do WACC, cada uma específica a certo fluxo de caixa. Portanto, aplicar a relação WACC clássica a todos os casos pode resultar em cálculos de NPVs otimistas demais. Dependendo do padrão de fluxo de caixa, o investimento pode exibir um NPV positivo no WACC clássico, quando na verdade estará perdendo patrimônio.

Este artigo realça (a) as armadilhas e usos equivocados do WACC, (b) as interdependências entre tipo de fluxo de caixa e WACC, (c) pressupostos por trás do WACC e se esses pressupostos são realistas, e (d) mostra abordagens alternativas para se chegar ao valor presente líquido (NPV) correto. Visa os CEOs das empresas, a gerência, os analistas e utros investidores que usam o WACC nas decisões de investimentos.     

The replacement decision: Getting it right

Replacing assets is one of the most important and frequently made decisions in business. A review of the finance literature shows that treatment of this subject diverges widely. More importantly, the net present value decision model most often described discounts only the differences between cash flows and terminal (salvage) values of the replace and do-not-replace alternatives. It tacitly assumes that the risk and inflation factors associated with these values are the same. As a result, for reasons that are counterintuitive in part, it may select the wrong alternative. Through use of a case example, this article demonstrates why the currently popular approach presents difficulties. Further, it provides a model designed to overcome the problems by making each alternative's cash flow and terminal value visible, and assigning appropriate risk and inflation discount factors to each.     

Survivor Is King

＂The greatest agony for Private Equity （PE） is that when the good projects loom, we do not have enough capital.＂ aninvestor said. His words reflect the fact that, with the financial tsunami in Wall Street, overseas LPs are all lapsing into a shortage of cash flows, which is also causing difficulty for all kinds of funds that want to raise capital. Obviously, every sector in the financial chain has been affected, as shown by an urgent report from Sequoia Capital, a venture capital firm specializing in seeding, startups, and early growth stage investments, which reminds all enterprise partners to restrain their expenditures; this is compounded by the foreboding news that the United States has witnessed a his- toric ＂longest-ever IPO vacuum period＂ -toric ＂longest-ever IPO vacuum period＂ - there have been no IPOs on the NY Stock Exchange for ten consecutive weeks.     

对中国上市公司控制权溢价的实证分析

运用2001-2004年的样本数据。在对中国上市公司控制权的隐性利益水平所进行的分析显示，中国上市公司的转让溢价水平除了与转让比例呈正相关以外，转让溢价水平与净资产收益率、现金比率、流通股数和公司规模均呈负相关。同时，随着转让比例的上升，一开始溢价比例会增加，但当转让比例达到一定程度时，溢价比例又会下降，溢价比例与转让比例之问是一种倒U型的非线性关系。     

Liquidity implications of reverse logistics for retailers: A Markov chain approach

The reverse logistics process can generate periodic negative cash flows that are difficult to predict and account for, but are important when managing retailer liquidity. Uncertainties surrounding reverse logistics create the possibility that the retailer may be strained in meeting short-run financial obligations or opportunities. The current research offers a Markov chain approach to modeling the expectations, risks, and potential shocks associated with cash flows stemming from retail reverse logistics activities. Managerial recommendations for avoiding liquidity problems stemming from reverse logistics activities are provided.     

Private equity performance and capital flows: Evidence from China

For more than 1500 private equity funds in China over the period from 1992 to 2013, we construct fund level performance metrics with investment level return data and examine performance and capital flows. The median (mean) fund IRR, net of fees, is 9.0% (51.7%), based on a sample that controls for survivorship bias. Fund IRRs are neither related to fund own characteristics, such as fund size, nor to overall market conditions around the time when the fund is raised. Competition reduces fund performance: returns are lower when there are many competitors entering the industry at the same time. Although experienced partnerships are more likely to raise a follow-on fund and to raise more capital, fund performance is not related to general partnership (GP) investment experience. Further, there is no performance persistence across funds managed by the same GP. Lastly, there is some evidence of investor maturity when judged on GPs' historical performance. This evidence characterizes a burgeoning yet immature PE industry in China.     

Sensitivity of external resources to cash flow under financial constraints

This paper explores the external financing–cash flow relationship in capital structure theory by comparing unlisted (financially constrained) and listed (financially unconstrained) companies. We postulate that investment is determined endogenously in the case of unlisted firms, as they are strongly dependent on internally generated funds (cash flow). Consequently, unlisted firms invest their cash flow in profitable projects, using any residual cash flow to increase their holdings of safe assets. In turn, listed companies determine their investment exogenously and may reduce leverage if they raise an excess of cash flow. As a result, listed companies would react more negatively to shocks in cash flow. Our findings reveal that both unlisted and listed companies show a negative external financing–cash flow relationship, that of the latter being clearly more intense.     

Anticorruption,political connections,and corporate cash policy: Evidence from politician downfalls in China

We examine how firms change their cash policies in response to the downfall of corrupt politicians in China. We find that firms connected to their local government increase cash holdings when high-profile politician downfalls occur in the government. Consistent with the precautionary saving argument, the effect is stronger for firms that have greater investment opportunities or face greater financial constraints. Compared to unaffected firms, affected firms save more cash out of cash flows and have a higher marginal value of cash holdings. Overall, we show that the collapse of firms' political connections has significant impacts on those firms' financial policies.     

基于自由现金流量的企业价值评估:以索芙特公司为例

本文在介绍自由现金流量折现法相关原理的基础上,选取一家名为索芙特的化妆品上市公司,通过分析该上市公司过去五年的相关财务数据,并结合整个化妆品的行业环境以及该企业的发展现状,分析影响企业价值评估的宏观环境和微观环境,进而探究该公司未来五年的自由现金流量。依据两阶段自由现金流量模型估算出索芙特公司的价值。基于此,本文从调整资本结构,提高公司自由现金流量的增长率两方面对索芙特公司的价值管理提出建议。     

Corporate governance and investment-cash flow sensitivity: Evidence from emerging markets

Controlling for country-level governance, we investigate how firms' corporate governance influences financing constraints. Using firm-level corporate governance rankings across 14 emerging markets, we find that better corporate governance lowers the dependence of emerging market firms on internally generated cash flows, and reduces financing constraints that would otherwise distort efficient allocation of investment and destroy firm value. Additionally and more importantly, firm-level corporate governance matters more significantly in countries with weaker country-level governance. This suggests substitutability between firm-specific and country-level governance in determining a firm's investment sensitivity to internal cash flows.     

Limited attention and the role of the venture capitalist

This research analyzes the venture capitalist's incentives to maximize the profits of the entrepreneurs of ventures and the limited partners of a venture fund. Venture capital is a professionally managed pool of capital invested in equity-linked private ventures. Entrepreneurs turn to venture capitalists for financing because high-technology startup firms have low or negative cash flows, which prevent them from borrowing or issuing equity. In addition, venture capitalists are actively involved in management of the venture to assure its success. This solves the problem of startup firms that do not have the cash flows to hire management consultants.Venture capital contracts have three main characteristics: (1) staging the commitment of capital and preserving the option to abandon, (2) using compensation systems directly linked to value creation, and (3) preserving ways to force management to distribute investment proceeds. These characteristics address three fundamental problems: (1) sorting the venture capital among the entrepreneurial ventures, (2) providing incentives to motivate venture capitalists to maximize the value of the funded ventures, and (3) providing incentives to motivate entrepreneurs to maximize the value of the ventures. Venture capitalists fund only about a dozen projects a year out of a thousand evaluated. Each project may receive several rounds of financing. Payoffs to VCs can be very high or be a complete loss.The typical venture capital (VC) firm is organized as a limited partnership, with the venture capitalists serving as general partners and the investors as limited partners. General partner VCs act as agents for the limited partners in investing their funds. VCs invest their human capital by placing their reputation on the line. The goal is to begin to convert the investment into cash or marketable securities, which are distributed to the partners. VC management companies receive a management fee equal to a percentage (usually 2.5%) of the capital of each fund. They also receive a percentage (15–30%) of the profits of each fund, called carried interest. Periodic reports are made by the VC firm to the limited partners. Usually these are only costs of managing the fund, and so revenues are negative. Most contracts specify the percentage of time that the VC will devote to managing the fund.The analysis of this research deals with the incentives of the VC who has limited attention to be allocated between improving current ventures and evaluating new ventures for possible funding. The analysis shows that the VC, as agent for both the entrepreneur and the general partners, does not have the incentives required to maximize their profits. The VC allocates attention among ventures and venture funds less frequently than required to maximize the entrepreneurs' and limited partners' profits. However, the VC does maximize the total profits of all ventures. Because the VC considers the opportunity cost of attention, the VC's allocation of attention is efficient. The implication of this result is that, although the entrepreneurs and limited partners could be made better off with a different allocation of the VC's time, this would be an inefficient use of the VC's time.     

非流通股与过度股权融资

In the Chinese stock market, the price of exchangeable stock is determined by the discounted future uncertain cash flow, while the price of non-circulating stock depends on per book value. In general, because investors holding non-circulating equity maintain the control power, corporate finance and investment decisions reflect their interests. The pricing mechanism of non-circulating stock violates the basic pricing principle of the capital market. Therefore, corporate finance decisions deviate from the NPV (net present value). As a result, excessive equity financing problems would occur in the listed companies. Translated from Shijie Jingji Wenyuan 世界经济文源 (World Economic Forum), 2004, (4): 41–50     

试论净现值法在投资决策中的缺陷及改进

净现值法作为一种基本的投资决策方法,更符合企业财富最大化的假设及长期发展目标。在实际应用中,净现值有时会使公司的投资决策预期与实际结果产生很大的偏差。运用风险累加法和参考经验数据法合理确定折现率,并引入实物期权理论,可提高决策的科学性和准确性,使投资决策更为合理。     

China’s Macroeconomic Imbalances: Causes and Consequences

In recent years, China has experienced two forms of extreme macroeconomic imbalance: an expenditure imbalance in the sense of very high investment and very low consumption, giving rise to rapid capital accumulation; and an imbalance between expenditure and production, producing external imbalance, i.e. a huge surplus on the current account of the balance of payments. Both imbalances imply a low rate of time discount by both government and society: consumption in the present is forgone in favour of consumption in the future. The paper examines how these imbalances came about and goes on to consider whether they can be sustained and how they might be redressed. There is no evidence that the rapid capital accumulation has reduced the rate of profit on capital and thus the incentive to invest. However, persistent external imbalance poses a threat to investment if it generates excess liquidity and asset bubbles. The current account surplus rose remarkably in the years 2004–07. This was associated with exogenous increases in competiveness and in saving, both attributable to the economic reform policies. On current policies, the surplus is likely to rise again once the world economy recovers from its recession. This poses three sorts of problems, each of which is examined in turn: difficulties for macroeconomic stabilisation policies; risk of capital loss on the foreign exchange holdings; and the threat of retaliation by China’s trading partners. A combination of internal and external policies will be required to redress the imbalance.     

Access to finance,working capital management and company value: Evidences from Brazilian companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA

In this research, we have analyzed the impact of financial leverage on the relationship between working capital and company value and how financial constraints on access to financing affect this relationship. In addition, we have analyzed the relationship between working capital and company value. Using a sample of Brazilian public companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA from 1995 through 2009, we found evidence for the following conclusions: an extra Real (R$) of investment in working capital is significantly less worth, on average, than an extra Real (R$) of investment in cash; and, on average, increasing the level of working capital at the beginning of a fiscal year reduces company value.     

The different roles played by venture capital and private equity investors on the investment activity of their portfolio firms

Venture capital (VC) and private equity (PE) investors play different roles in their portfolio companies. We argue that this will translate in a recognizable difference in the investment sensitivity to cash flows of portfolio companies and its evolution after the first investment round. We hypothesise that VC, thanks to its ability in overcoming asymmetries in information, will entail a reduction in the financial constraints which hampered the growth of investee firms. We predict, instead, a greater dependency of investments to cash flow for PE-backed companies, driven by the renewed interest for growth of their management combined with higher leverage. We find evidence confirming our hypotheses on a large panel of Spanish unlisted firms in low and medium technology sectors, where both VC and PE firms are active.