The Macroeconomic Consequences of Long-Term Unemployment

This article examines the linkages between long-term unemployment and two important recent debates in Australia: first, whether unemployment exhibits hysteresis tendencies; second, the nature of the relationship between unemployment and real wages. Our findings favour the hysteresis account in that the evidence rejects an equilibrium relationship between long-term and total unemployment. Also, the effect on real wages of an increase in the number of longterm unemployed is found to be both positive and significant.     

Intergenerational Risk Sharing and Health Insurance Financing

When medical care prices and individual health needs follow stochastic processes with non-zero trends. community rating facilitates lifetime insurance and intergenerational risk sharing. While such a policy is unsustainable in competitive private insurance markets. it provides the basis for the financing of public health systems designed to spread risks efficiently.     

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Anticipated Price Reform

This paper uses a two-period model to examine the macroeconomic consequences of anticipated price liberalization. In the first period prices are controlled, there is excess demand for goods and consumers must engage in costly queuing to make purchases. In the second period prices are freed, eliminating the need for queues. We establish the possibility of multiple Pareto-rankable equilibria and examine the effects of contingent policy rules. The framework enables us to examine a number of issues of importance, such as the problem of the monetary overhang, the relevance of budgetary policies and the effects of foreign aid.     

Macroeconomic Consequences of the EMU

European Monetary Union was sold to the German public on the claim that the common currency would make the European economy stronger and that this would yield significant welfare gains. Such claims are commonly based on three propositions. (1) The common currency will be a strong international currency and the real appreciation of the euro against other currencies will make the EMU citizens richer. (2) The common currency will change labor market relations and increase labor market flexibility, and this will reduce the high rate of structural unemployment in Europe. (3) The common currency will create competition among the governments in the dimension of regulatory and tax policies and induce governments to undertake structural reforms which are long overdue, and this will set the EMU economy on a higher growth path.In this paper we discuss these three claims. We agree with the basic ideas of each of them. But the suggested result of a stronger EMU economy remains questionable. The euro may lead to more or to less labor market inflexibility, and competition among governments in the EMU has a high and a low-regulation equilibrium. Where the euro takes the European economy depends largely on the political willingness to engage in reforms.     

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Reciprocity in Labor Relations*

We develop and analyze a structural model of efficiency wages founded on reciprocity. Workers are assumed to face an explicit trade‐off between the disutility of providing effort and the psychological benefit of reciprocating the gift of a wage offer above some reference level. The model provides a rationale for rent sharing—a feature that is very much present in the data but absent from previous formulations of the efficiency wage hypothesis. This firm‐internal perspective on efficiency wages has potentially important macroeconomic consequences: rent‐sharing considerations promote wage rigidity, internal amplification and differential responses to technology and demand shocks.     

Macroeconomic Consequences of the Adoption of the Euro: The Case of Slovenia

On 1 January 2007, Slovenia adopted the euro as the first of the ten new EU member states. By means of simulations with SLOPOL6, a macroeconometric model of the Slovene economy, this paper examines the macroeconomic consequences that can be expected from this event. It is shown that after a short period of minor turbulences related to the introduction of the euro, the adoption of the euro brings about higher real GDP growth, a higher GDP level, more employment, lower inflation, a lower price level and improved public finances in the medium run. On the other hand, the current account deteriorates. Financial support from the Province of Carinthia, Klagenfurt University and the Jubilaeumsfonds of the Austrian National Bank (project no. 12166) is gratefully acknowledged. The opinions presented need not be those of the Austrian National Bank.     

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Mixing Sunnis and Shias: A Bayesian Errors-in-Variables Approach

How damaging is the Sunni/Shia split to the economies of Islamic countries? Is it better to be one or the other? Or is it better to have an even balance between the two? Answering these questions is complicated by the fact that the data are often missing or imprecisely measured. We employ the technique of Bayesian data augmentation to circumvent these two problems, and find that properly controlling for these features in the data leads to drastically different conclusions than what is found using ordinary least squares. We find that there is nothing in the differential nature of Sunni or Shia Islam to make one more economically prosperous than the other. Nor do we find any support for the popular hypothesis that Sunnis and Shias cannot mix.     

宏观经济感知、货币政策与微观企业投融资行为

本文基于中国上市公司年报文本信息,首次构建了中国微观企业宏观经济感知指数,并通过一个三期理论模型阐释货币政策在不同宏观经济感知情形下如何影响微观企业投融资行为.实证分析表明,当央行实施积极货币政策时,对宏观经济感知更乐观的企业更积极地响应政策刺激,表现为投融资行为增加.进一步将宏观经济感知指数分解为预期指数和回顾指数,分析结果表明:宏观经济感知指数的影响主要由反映企业未来预期的宏观经济预期指数引致,而反映历史信息的宏观经济回顾指数则没有显著影响.区分企业所有制的结果还表明,持有积极宏观经济感知的民营企业仅在积极货币政策状态下增加投资和提高杠杆率,而宏观经济感知对国有企业投融资行为的作用则未受货币政策状态影响.     

A Macroeconomic Analysis of Publicly Funded Health Care

In a general equilibrium, overlapping generations framework this paper examines how the tax-benefit system that underlies the U.S. health care system affects the well-being of different age groups, and the lifetime well-being of different socioeconomic groups, as well as society as a whole. We find that the optimal set and generosity of publicly funded health care programs is sensitive to the social welfare function and to the prices that various agents in society pay for medical care. Social welfare under the current financing system is also compared to alternative financing mechanisms such as Medical Savings Accounts.     

卫生财政投入机制研究

基于医药卫生独特分工结构和递送关系的简要表达与医药卫生体制内生机制及驱动力的分析假定,卫生财政及其主导的个人卫生投入的方向和方式本质上由医药卫生领域内相关主体的理性选择和缔约行为确定.积极的卫生财政政策不应局限于从传统的公益性或公共产品理论去寻求依据和对策,而应从社会发展和公民个人发展整体需求的角度去制订,从如何让分工利益合理地驱动相关主体的理性选择和缔约,从而推动与社会发展进程相吻合的医药卫生体制内生的角度去实施.     

The Macroeconomic Outlook

A slow recovery is expected from the current recession. Since reaching a trough in the September quarter of 1990, real gross domestic product (GDP) has followed a flat path which is likely to continue through to the September quarter of 1991. A slow recovery may then commence in the December quarter of 1991. This is consistent with real GDP growth of -0.9 per cent in 1990-91 followed by 2.4 per cent in 1991-92 and around 3 per cent per annum to the mid- 1990s compared with 'normal' growth of 2.5 per cent per annum.
This recovery is likely to see the unemployment rate at over 10 per cent for most of 1991-92, before moving to around 8 per cent by the mid-1990s.
Inflation may fall sharply from a peak of 8.0 per cent in 1989-90 to a trough of 3 to 4 per cent in 199 1–92, due to the recession and movements in oil prices. With a slow recovery, inflation may increase to 4 to 5 per cent per annum in the medium term.
The current account deficit has fallen from 5.9 per cent of GDP in 1989-90 to a likely level of 4.1 per cent in 1990-91, but part of this gain is cyclical rather than structural. Thus the deficit is expected to increase to around 5 per cent during recovery and remain flat to the mid- 1990s, implying steady increases in the ratio of foreign debt to GDP.
Looser monetary policy would erode part of the forecast sustained reduction in inflation. Looser fiscal policy would lead to a higher current account deficit.     

The Macroeconomic Outlook

This two-year quarterly forecast from the Access Economics Murphy (AEM) model updates that presented in the 2nd quarter 1992 issue of the Australian Economic Review.
The economic recovery is patchy, with only public final demand and housing investment moving forward decisively, but could broaden in 1993, if private business fixed investment begins increasing. It has fallen by a recession-inducing one-third since the middle of 1989.
GDP growth could rise from a mediocre 2.4 per cent in 1992–93 to a strong 4.3 per cent in 1993–94.
Unemployment may remain around 11 per cent for the remainder of 1992–93, before falling to a year-average level of about 10 per cent in 1993–94.
CPI inflation under 2 per cent per annum on a year-on-year basis is likely in 1992–93 but, with economic recovery and the flow-through effects of the depreciation, it is forecast to rise to 4 per cent per annum in 1993–94. The current account deficit is rising with economic recovery, and by 1993-94 could be 5 per cent of GDP, compared with a sustainable level of 3 to 3.5 per cent.
An assessment of the accuracy of the AEM model and government official economic growth forecasts in the recession years of 1990–91 to 1992–93 was conducted, using the forecasts from the Business Review Weekly's panel as a reference point. The high accuracy ranking of the AEM forecasts is consistent with international evidence that the most accurate forecasts are model-based with judgmental adjustments. The official forecasts met international standards of accuracy from 1978–79 to 1989–90, and the recent fall in their performance is puzzling.     

The Macroeconomic Outlook

This quarterly two-year forecast from the Access Economics Murphy (AEM) model updates that presented in the corresponding article in the 4th quarter 1991 issue of the Australian Economic Review.
As predicted in the previous forecast, the economy entered a slow recovery in the December quarter of 1991. Steady growth averaging close to 1 per cent per quarter is likely during 1992–93 and 1993–94.
Unemployment may peak at around 10 3/4 per cent in mid-1992, before slowly falling to a year-average level of around 9 per cent in 1993–94.
Under the influence of the recent recession, CPI inflation is likely to be around 2 per cent per annum on a year-on-year basis for both 1991–92 and 1992–93. With economic recovery, it is forecast to rise to 4.5 per cent per annum in 1993–94.
While the recession has helped bring the current account deficit down from near 6 per cent of GDP in 1989–90 to around 3 per cent for 1991–92, it will rise with economic recovery, and is forecast to exceed 5 per cent of GDP by 1993–94, compared with a sustainable level of 3 to 3 1/2 per cent.
The economic recovery is not proving to be as strong as forecast in One Nation.
However, there is a recovery clearly underway, and any further easing of monetary and fiscal policy risks prejudicing a substantial part of the recent impressive gains on inflation and creates a major medium-term problem for public finances.     

The Macroeconomic Outlook

A slow recovery, commencing in the December quarter of 1997, is expected from the current recession. Overall, gross domestic product (GDP) may increase by 2.8 per cent in the year to the June quarter of 1992, and continue to increase at a similar rate thereafter.
This subdued recovery is likely to see the unemployment rate at over 70 per cent to the end of 1992, before moving down slowly to around 8.5 per cent by the mid-1990s.
Consumer price index (CPI) inflation may fall sharply from a peak of 8.0 per cent in 1989-90 to a trough of under 3 per cent in 1997-92, due to the recession and movements in oil prices. With a slow recovery, inflation may then increase to 5 per cent per annum in the medium term.
The current account deficit has fallen from 6.0 per cent of GDP in 1989-90 to 4.7 per cent in 1990-91, despite a fall in the terms of trade of 5 per cent. However, this has been due to the cyclical downturn. With a slow recovery in demand, and rising real labour costs hampering expansion in export and import-competing industries, the current account deficit may once again reach 6 per cent of GDP by the mid-1990s, implying steady increases in the foreign debt-to-GDP ratio.
This forecast assumes monetary policy targets an inflation rate of 5 per cent per annum. Any further easings in monetary policy may undermine the credibility of the inflation objective with the result that the trade weighted index (TWI) exchange rate may drop sharply from 59.     

人寿保险市场供需理论探索

人寿保险的发展对社会的稳定起着举足轻重的作用。人寿保险市场供需理论的探索对寿险市场的发展具有重大的意义。系统地探讨风险与风险测量以及风险偏好的效用表达、人寿保险需求理论、人寿保险供给理论、保险市场的供需价格理论等，并就保险理论尤其是针对中国寿险市场的理始存在的问题进行了必要的讨论。