企业创新投资的空间互动关系研究

在落实国家创新驱动发展战略过程中,企业是微观层面实施者,立足企业研究创新投资的空间互动关系,对于激发企业间创新投资联动效应,推动落实国家创新驱动发展战略具有积极意义。构建不同权重矩阵,运用空间计量模型研究发现：企业与企业之间的创新投资存在正向空间互动关系;企业之间的创新投资空间互动关系存在行业门槛,表现为跨行业衰减;创新投资的空间互动关系在多维邻近的企业间更容易达成。最后,提出建议：甄别高、低水平创新投资集聚区,基于不同创新投资水平“量体裁衣”助推企业创新投资;创新投资的空间互动可以在企业间形成涟漪式扩散,应在扩散过程中重视和充分发挥同行业企业作为关键传导节点的作用;选出一批合适的企业进行重点管理,以“点”带“面”促进更多企业创新投资行为。     

绿色创新与经济增长动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

基于湖北省1993—2018年相关数据,运用VAR模型对绿色创新与经济增长的动态关系进行实证研究,同时将绿色创新分为发明专利授权和实用新型专利授权两个要素。研究发现,经济增长与发明专利授权、实用新型专利授权存在长期协整关系;发明专利授权对经济增长存在“扩散效应”,实用新型专利授权对经济增长先体现“扩散效应”,后体现“挤出效应”,而经济增长对两者均具有“扩散效应”;发明专利授权对经济增长的促进作用明显大于实用新型专利授权对经济增长的促进作用。因此,应积极构建绿色创新与经济增长的长效互动机制;加大绿色创新开发投入,完善绿色创新相关制度;提升绿色创新的投入效率,加速绿色创新成果转化率。     

Information,innovation and diffusion of technology

The paper presents an infinite horizon model of innovation and diffusion incorporating features from recent advances in evolutionary economics. A stochastic variant is explored which posits that technological knowledge is costly to obtain, requiring resource expenditure. There are heterogeneous agents: optimizing as well as non-optimizing agents. The optimizing agents incur an innovation cost. The return from inventive investment is random. The non-optimizing agents, operating existing technologies, behave solely adaptively. Cross-effects between those two types of agents give rise to the multiple equilibria, path-dependence, diversity of diffusion processes and a coexistence of different technologies. Some policy conclusions are drawn in the last section.     

Wind Power in Europe: A Simultaneous Innovation–Diffusion Model

The purpose of this paper is to provide a quantitative analysis of innovation and diffusion in the European wind power sector. We derive a simultaneous model of wind power innovation and diffusion, which combines a rational choice model of technological diffusion and a learning curve model of dynamic cost reductions. These models are estimated using pooled annual time series data for four European countries (Denmark, Germany, Spain and the United Kingdom) over the time period 1986–2000. The empirical results indicate that reductions in investment costs have been important determinants of increased diffusion of wind power, and these cost reductions can in turn be explained by learning activities and public R&D support. Feed-in tariffs also play an important role in the innovation and diffusion processes. The higher is the feed-in price the higher is, ceteris paribus, the rate of diffusion, and we present some preliminary empirical support for the notion that the impact on diffusion of a marginal increase in the feed-in tariff will differ depending on the support system used. High feed-in tariffs, though, also have a negative effect on cost reductions as they induce wind generators to choose high-cost sites and provide fewer incentives for cost cuts. This illustrates the importance of designing an efficient wind energy support system, which not only promotes diffusion but also provides continuous incentives for cost-reducing innovations.      

Innovation diffusion in a heterogeneous population

One of the assumptions made in modelling innovation diffusion is that of complete mixing of prior and potential adopters. In the present paper we give a deterministic model for diffusion of innovation in a population for which this assumption is inappropriate. The population of interest is divided into two spatially separated groups. Diffusion in the first group near the single centre of innovation is assumed to follow the logistic model. A modified model is proposed for the second group. Individuals in this group are assumed to receive information from previous adopters in both the groups. The model is fitted to data on diffusion of crossbred goats in villages around Narayangaon, a town about 70 kilometers from Pune in Western India.     

The implications of diffusion models for accelerating the diffusion of innovation

This paper explores the implications of a simple, yet robust model of innovation diffusion for developing insight into the problem of controlling the rate of new product diffusion. Some basic, theoretical results are developed using a simple model. Those results are shown to relate to optimal policies developed from a more complex model of innovation diffusion, developed for the Department of Energy's photovoltaic program.     

Endogenous Growth Cycles

This paper uses a variety expansion growth model to show that an economy with a time lag between innovation and widespread use of the new product can experience growth cycles. By allowing the diffusion of innovation, the economy can exhibit period-by-period indeterminacy of expectations. If agents expect that high investment and rapid growth will take place in the future, the economy actually grows faster, and if not, the economy grows slowly.     

Diversity in innovation and productivity in Europe

The diversity in innovation patterns across manufacturing and service industries and in their outcomes in terms of hourly labor productivity are investigated in this article considering six European countries. The Schumpeterian insights into the variety of innovation are developed in this work by identifying different innovation–performance relationships for industries and countries, relying either on the dominant role of product innovation, or on the diffusion of process improvements. Moreover, the “push” effect of innovation is combined with the “pull” effect of demand, by considering the impact of the dynamics of consumption and investment at the sectoral level. The results point out a “North-South” divide across EU countries, with the three countries of Northern Europe closely associated to the model of productivity growth based on product innovation, and the three Southern countries, mainly relying on the mechanisms by which process innovation is at the root of productivity improvements.     

Modelling a dynamic market potential: A class of automata networks for diffusion of innovations

Innovation diffusion processes are generally described at aggregate level with models like the Bass Model (BM) and the Generalized Bass Model (GBM). However, the recognized importance of communication channels between agents has recently suggested the use of agent-based models, like Cellular Automata. We argue that an adoption or purchase process is nested in a communication network that evolves dynamically and indirectly generates a latent non-constant market potential affecting the adoption phase.Using Cellular Automata we propose a two-stage model of an innovation diffusion process. First we describe a communication network, an Automata Network, necessary for the “awareness” of an innovation. Then, we model a nested process depicting the proper purchase dynamics. Through a mean field approximation we propose a continuous representation of the discrete time equations derived by our nested two-stage model. This constitutes a special non-autonomous Riccati equation, not yet described in well-known international catalogues. The main results refer to the closed form solution that includes a general dynamic market potential and to the corresponding statistical analysis for identification and inference. We discuss an application to the diffusion of a new pharmaceutical drug.     

中国战略性新兴企业技术创新投入时空演化及影响因素研究

为促进中国区域经济协调发展、提升政府创新资助的有效性,基于2012—2019年中国（内地）30个省市882家战略性新兴上市企业面板数据,采用Theil指数、探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）等方法考察中国战略性新兴企业技术创新投入时空演化特征,通过构建空间面板模型,剖析战略性新兴企业技术创新投入的关键影响因素。结果显示：①企业技术创新投入总体呈波动上升趋势,东部地区投入强度最大;②企业技术创新投入总体趋于均等化,东中西三大区域内部差异较大;③企业技术创新投入“中心-外围”特征显著,中心省份多位于东中部地区,外围省份多位于西部内陆地区,空间关联模式主要表现为H-H型和L-L型;④政府创新资助对企业技术创新投入具有显著促进作用,企业技术创新投入具有显著负向空间溢出效应;⑤政府创新资助对东部地区、高创新资助企业技术创新投入的促进作用显著,高创新资助企业技术创新投入的负向空间溢出效应显著。     

A dynamic diffusion model for managing customer's expectation and satisfaction

The paper aims at answering the generic question on how suppliers make the suitable and well-timed decisions in diffusing new technology effectively to adopters. Three major attempts are made for the study: First, investigating the entire process of the adoption and diffusion of technology innovation with reasonably well-accepted models in each areas. Second, proposing an integrated model by concatenating in structured manner the three prominent models for the management of technology innovation such as diffusion model, adoption model, and customer satisfaction model. Third, exploring the dynamic mechanism underlying outward behaviors of the integrated model proposed in the study which depicts the causal relationships that influence technology adoption and diffusion behaviors. An exploration of the dynamic mechanism underlying outward behaviors of the integrated model is presented in the study by introducing the system dynamics simulation technique. These attempts made for the study and the results perhaps allow both researchers and practitioners to gain insight into the causal factors influencing customers' adoption decision making processes and thereby into the potential diffusion patterns resulting from those adoption processes.     

风险投资介入与企业创新：基于PSM模型的经验证据

“大众创业、万众创新”背景下，研究风险投资介入对企业创新绩效的影响具有重要理论与现实意义。以2010-2017年创业板公司为样本，采用倾向得分匹配法（PSM）模型,实证分析风险投资介入对企业创新绩效的影响,发现风险投资介入显著促进专利申请量，且对发明专利申请量和实用新型专利申请量有显著正向作用，而对外观设计专利影响并不显著。进一步考察不同背景和投资策略的风险投资对创新绩效的潜在影响，结果显示：与单独投资相比，联合投资对专利总申请量和发明专利申请量增加的促进作用更显著；与私营风险投资和外资风险投资相比，国有风险投资具有更强的发明取向和更长的投资时间，能显著促进发明专利等创新绩效提升，而私营和外资风险投资对公司创新绩效的影响不显著。     

区域一体化战略能有效提升创新扩散环节溢出效应吗——以京津冀城市群为例

有效盘活现有科技资源存量,提升区域创新扩散效应,对于确保我国创新驱动发展战略稳步推进、实现高质量发展意义重大。以京津冀城市群为例,重点探究区域一体化战略实施能否有效提升创新扩散环节的空间溢出效应。研究发现,在城市群内部创新资源分布不均衡下,区域一体化战略对提升吸收转化环节溢出效应的影响更显著。其作用机理表现为,区域一体化战略促进区域创新中介主体和知识产权保护主体发育,知识产权保护环境不断优化,使得区域内创新源具备科技成果输出意愿,降低创新策源地与创新腹地之间技术成果交易的信息不对称性,进而提升科技成果的空间溢出效应。同时,当前阶段的区域一体化战略实施尚不能对基础研发投入环节的溢出效应产生显著影响。因此,在区域协同创新难以从基础研发投入环节打开局面的情况下,应该将政策发力点聚焦于科技成果吸收转化环节,尤其应进一步完善知识产权保护体系、优化创新中介发展生态。     

技术扩散能否成为区域创新效率提升的新动能——研发要素流动视角

基于研发要素流动视角，利用我国内地30个省市2002-2017年面板统计数据，通过空间杜宾模型和面板门槛回归模型，对技术扩散影响区域创新效率提升情况进行探究。研究结果发现：我国区域创新效率呈现波动收敛态势，其中，东部创新效率最高，中西部创新效率次之，且两者交替上探下潜；技术扩散能够驱动区域创新效率提升，其中，本土技术扩散表现出显著的边际递减驱动力，而国际技术扩散呈现出不显著的边际递增驱动力；技术扩散能够引发研发要素流动，其中，研发资本流动能够积极改善区域创新效率，而研发人员流动表现出抑制作用。     

外商直接投资、区域创新与城市化发展研究

基于2000—2017年省际面板数据,运用静态面板与门限面板模型,通过建立以政府干预、市场化进程为门限变量的回归模型,实证分析了外商直接投资与区域创新对我国城市化发展的影响。研究结果表明:外商直接投资、区域创新对城市化发展有积极的带动作用,同时,外商直接投资对区域创新的作用由替代效应向互补效应转变;政府干预对外商直接投资存在双重门限效应,对区域创新存在单一门限效应;市场化对外商直接投资存在单一门限效应,但对区域创新存在双重门限效应。基于以上结论,进一步提出促进城市化发展的建议。     

What influences the diffusion of grassroots innovations for sustainability? Investigating community currency niches

Community action for sustainability is a promising site of socio-technical innovation. Here we test the applicability of co-evolutionary niche theories of innovation diffusion (strategic niche management, SNM) to the context of ‘grassroots innovations’ (GIs). We present new empirical findings from an international study of 12 community currency niches (such as Local Exchange Trading Schemes, time banks, and local currencies). These are parallel systems of exchange, designed to operate alongside mainstream money, meeting additional sustainability needs. Our findings confirm SNM predictions that niche-level activity correlates with diffusion success, but we highlight additional or confounding factors, and how niche theories might be adapted to better fit civil society innovations. In so doing, we develop a model of GI niche diffusion which extends existing work and tailors it to this specific context. The paper concludes with a series of theoretically informed recommendations for practitioners and policy-makers to support the development and potential of GIs.     

技术扩散能否成为区域创新效率提升的新动能——研发要素流动视角

基于研发要素流动视角,利用我国内地30个省市2002-2017年面板统计数据,通过空间杜宾模型和面板门槛回归模型,对技术扩散影响区域创新效率提升情况进行探究。研究结果发现：我国区域创新效率呈现波动收敛态势,其中,东部创新效率最高,中西部创新效率次之,且两者交替上探下潜;技术扩散能够驱动区域创新效率提升,其中,本土技术扩散表现出显著的边际递减驱动力,而国际技术扩散呈现出不显著的边际递增驱动力;技术扩散能够引发研发要素流动,其中,研发资本流动能够积极改善区域创新效率,而研发人员流动表现出抑制作用。     

基于实物期权的突破性创新投资决策分析

鉴于突破性创新无论是在创新本身特性还是在机会识别以及技术发展过程等方面均与传统的渐进性创新截然不同,导致其投资决策分析所采用传统的DCF法和NPV判断规则将不能完全反映整个创新过程中投资者所面临诸多动态变化的不确定性影响因素以及由此带来项目价值的改变。因此如何选择正确的投资决策方法来准确估算投资项目的价值,把握项目创新过程中最佳的投资机会,是众多投资者的困惑,也是企业突破性创新发展成功的根本保证之一。通过剖析突破性创新的特点和传统投资决策分析方法的弊端,引入了以二项式或四项式为基础的实物期权模型来估计项目价值,充分考虑了项目突破性创新过程中各种不确定性因素对项目价值的影响,具有很强的实践价值。     

CVC投资模式对大公司技术创新绩效影响的实证研究

公司风险投资（Corporate Venture Capital,简称CVC）通常发生在技术变革快速、竞争激烈的行业。大公司利用CVC,可以获取新技术、开拓新市场、识别新机会和发展商业关系,在实现公司技术创新绩效战略目标的同时提升财务绩效。由于投资动机、组织者背景和机制等不同,在实践中形成的不同CVC投资模式在不同程度上影响着大公司技术创新绩效。基于CVC投资模式对技术创新绩效的作用,提出研究假设,并以CVC比较活跃的腾讯、阿里巴巴等12家上市公司2013-2018年参与的918个CVC投资事件为样本,采用T检验和单因素方差分析方法,就CVC投资模式对技术创新绩效的影响进行实证研究。结果表明：①不同CVC投资模式对大公司技术创新绩效的影响存在显著差异;②联盟模式对技术创新投入与产出的影响显著优于附属创投和委托投资模式;③大公司应结合自身资金、经验和风险承受能力选择相应的CVC投资模式。     

我国农村地区的技术进步——基于空间计量经济学

利用1999—2008年广东省的市域数据,基于空间面板模型对其农村地区的技术进步模式进行了实证分析。结果显示:该地区的农村技术具有明显的空间相关性,且这种空间相关性随经济发展有逐渐增强的趋势;农村技术进步的途径主要有三种,即区域内农村研发创新、城市先进技术溢出以及农村地区间技术扩散;以农村投资为代表的"干中学"以及农村地区间的技术扩散是农村技术进步的主要动力;受农村吸收能力弱等因素的限制,城市先进技术溢出较其他两种途径对农村技术进步的影响较小,但仍是农村技术进步的重要来源。最后提出,加强农村科技投入,提高农村自主研发和创新能力,提高农村地区的消化、吸收能力以及促进农村地区间的技术扩散,是解决"三农"问题的重要渠道。