Indonesia's Slow Economic Growth: 1981–86 1

The object of the paper is to explain the sharp decline in Indonesia's growth rate since 1981 compared with the period before 1981. It is argued that the slow growth of the later penod was mainly due to the net effect of investment, the government's domestic budget deficit and imports in depressing domestic demand, reflected in turn in a slower growth of money supply. These demand policies were followed to deal with the deteriorating balance of payments situation. Therefore, some alternative policies are suggested for dealing with this situation which will not have adverse effects on economic growth.     

Labour Market Adjustment to Indonesia's Economic Crisis: Context,Trends and Implications

This paper focuses on labour market adjustment during the economic crisis of 1997–98. It shows how labour processes help explain better outcomes for the poor than were initially predicted. The Indonesian experience is viewed in a framework that contrasts two extreme models: a Keynesian world of rigid real wages, and a neoclassical situation of flexible adjustment to economic shocks. It was found that the Indonesian case is more consistent with the neoclassical than the Keynesian model, despite the tendency for greater government intervention in labour markets before the crisis. The paper also finds that the large change in relative prices from the exchange rate depreciation had a smaller effect than expected on employment structure. These conclusions are discussed in the context of major changes in labour markets prior to the economic crisis.     

关于经济形势的近期回顾与展望

2004年的宏观调控是我国历次宏观调控中搞得最好的一次。展望2005年，从发展条件、经济效益、客观需求和国际环境等方面看，必将取得进一步持续快速健康发展。但必须坚持政策的稳定，坚持以人为本，坚持效益优先，坚持深化改革。     

Indonesia's Non-Oil Export Performance During the Economic Crisis: Distinguishing Price Trends from Quantity Trends

Despite an enormous currency depreciation, the growth rate of Indonesia's non-oil exports, measured in dollars, did not accelerate during the first two years of the Asian crisis. In fact, during the second year of the crisis non-oil export value dropped sharply. This paper demonstrates that the main reason for the decline in the dollar value of non-oil exports was a collapse of export prices. Non-oil export dollar prices fell 26% between the second quarter of 1997 and the second quarter of 1999. Measured at constant prices, non-oil exports grew 24% and manufactured exports 31% during this period. Non-oil import prices fell by roughly the same amount as non-oil export prices during the crisis, with little change in the non-oil terms of trade. The decline in the price of traded goods significantly reduced the magnitude of the real exchange rate depreciation experienced by Indonesia.     

东亚金融货币合作:短期、中期和长期

提高东亚区域金融货币合作的效率,区分短期、中期和长期的合作内容是重要的。本文认为,在目前阶段,东亚地区仍应将金融货币合作的重点放在地区最后贷款人和紧急援助机制的建立和完善上,中期合作的重点是发展地区资本市场特别是长期债券市场,而东亚货币汇率合作只能留待更长远的未来去实现。一、时间视角下的金融货币合作1997―1998年东亚货币危机以来,东亚地区出现了一股区域金融货币合作的热情。这种热情的主要背景是东亚货币危机的教训和防止未来货币危机再次发生的意愿。此外,欧洲货币一体化的成功也激发了东亚各国金融与货币合作的愿望,…     

近中期中国汇率制度的选择

一般认为,随着资本流动自由化程度的提高,中国作为一个大国,应改变目前人民币事实上钉住美元的汇率体制,提高汇率形成的市场化程度,真正实行有管理的浮动汇率制。[1]这有利于增强货币政策的独立性,减少国际经济金融形势变化和国内结构调整带来的冲击。退出固定汇率制有多种选择     

投资者风险规避度与量化宽松的中长期利率效应

为什么日美两国量化宽松对于各自中长期利率的影响效果呈现显著差异?文章基于preferred-habitat theory(偏好习惯理论)探讨了一个长期被忽略的影响因素——投资者风险规避度。根据偏好习惯理论,文章认为减少长期债券的供给的确能够降低中长期利率(文章称之为供给效应),但供给效应的大小取决于投资者风险规避度。文章运用两种方法计算比较了日美两国投资者风险规避度,结果发现各自量化宽松期间日本投资者的风险规避度远小于美国投资者。进一步地,文章的实证检验证实,量化宽松的供给效应存在于不同国家,且与投资者风险规避度确实存在一定程度的正相关关系,从而证明了偏好习惯理论。更为重要的是文章发现美国量化宽松的供给效应显著高于日本,这说明投资者风险规避情绪确实是造成两国量化宽松的中长期利率效应差异的关键因素。     

当前经济形势与对策建议

单看1-2月份的数据，还难以对今年国民经济的运行和发展作一个全面评估，但与实地调研所掌握的最新情况结合起来，大致可以得出一个趋势性判断。总体看，当前经济运行延续去年以来的“温和向下”趋势，有的指标略有加速，有的指标略有减速，但都没有出现极端倾向，行走在宏观调控的“目标区间”以内。上半年GDP增长速度仍将超过9％，下半年可能略微低一些，     

首都经济圈战略与行动

京津联合体的形成是首都经济圈和中国北方经济崛起的重要一步.本文以此为动机,全面分析了京津生产的现状及经济联合问题.研究中发现两市经济结构同构现象明显、经济联合无序而松散.针对造成问题的主要原因.文章遵循区域一体化和经济区理论与方法,提出京津经济协调发展的思路及对策.并在此基础上,进一步探讨了首都经济圈的腹地建设构想.     

新疆经济发展的战略

西部大开发，新疆是重点；新疆大开发，生态是前提，资源是基础，开放是重点。新疆在西部大开发中具有重要的资源战略地位．沿边开放地位、生态安全地位和多民族聚居区的特殊地位。未来新疆经济发展应实施以“市场”为导向、以“一白一黑”为重点、以“畜牧业”为突破口的优势资源转换战略和以“口岸、经济合作区”为“触角”，以边境城市、骨干城市为“节点”，以乌鲁木齐为“核心”的外向型经济发展战略，根据市场要求和经济效益，确定优势资源的开发重点，大力发展特色产业，实现产业“四化”即产业化、专业化、集团化和国际化，促进产业升级，实现与国际经济接轨。     

Indonesia's new tax reform: Potential and direction

This study aims to provide direction for policy and provide input to improve the quality of taxation services, by emphasizing and analyzing the existing tax potential and recommending a taxation reformation plan in accordance with fiscal sustainability and efforts to increase the level of Indonesian competence both for the transition period and in the long term. The result of the study has indicated that there is still the opportunity to increase national revenue without increasing rates and by increasing the capacity of tax administration and expanding the tax base, tax collection/revenue will increase. There are a number of indicators that illustrate this, such as the ratio of tax revenue to the GDP which is still relatively low compared to other countries, wide scope for increasing value added tax (VAT), PIT and CIT revenue productivity, etc. Our best estimation for potential tax revenue expansion for the next 2–3 years would be 2.1% of GDP where PIT and CIT contributed more than half of that expansion.     

我国中小企业集群发展空间层面战略论

中、小企业集群化发展是企业空间布局的一种重要的模式。改革开放以来我国中、小企业集群的发展已经有一些成功的范例,也面临着一些问题,这些给我们的经验与启示是十分有益的。本文针对我国中、小企业集群发展的实际从全国、区域、集群和企业四个层面上论述了我国中、小企业集群发展的战略取向。