The learning curve,demand growth,and market concentration

This paper explores the relationship among an industry's levels of learning, expected demand growth, and concentration. The analysis uses comparative statics and simulations to explain how the incentives associated with learning can result in a positive relationship between the industry's expected demand growth and its equilibrium level of concentration.     

Diversification, Concentration and Economic Performance: Korean Business Groups

The purpose of this paper is to analyze empirically some of therelationships involving corporate diversification, concentration and economic performance for agroup of 25 of the largest Korean chaebols or business groups over the period 1985–1995. UsingHerfindahl–Hirschman indices of inter-industry diversification and intra-group member firm concentration,our results indicate that increased conglomerate diversification does not affect chaebol profitswhereas changes in internal member firm concentration do. Of particular interest with respect to bothdiversification and concentration are our findings that a quadratic relationship exists between groupprofits and the number of member firms, with both smaller and larger chaebols having higher profitsthan intermediate size chaebols. A similar relationship also exists with respect to group size measuredin terms of total assets. Since the number of member firms is included as an explanatory variable, ourresults imply that profitable chaebols expand primarily within their existing industries ratherthan by adding firms in new markets.     

On the Relationship between International Outsourcing and Price–Cost Margins in European Industries

This paper sets up a model, where multinationals compete in quantities and domestic firms form a competitive fringe. Within this framework, we analyse the relationship between market concentration, international outsourcing and the industry price-cost margin. The empirical results of a panel of 66 industries and the EU12 countries in the 1990s strongly confirm our theoretical hypotheses. Market concentration and international outsourcing are positively related to industry price–cost margins. In a thought experiment, we show that industry price–cost margins would have decreased by 0.4 percentage points more in the 1990s, if international outsourcing had not changed since 1990. In addition, international outsourcing accounts for a convergence in margins across industries in the last decade.     

The independent submarkets model: an application to the Spanish retail banking market

The aim of this paper is to test the predictions of Sutton’s independent submarkets model with data on the Spanish retail banking market. The prediction of this model for aggregates of submarkets is that the form of equilibrium outcome must involve some minimal degree of size inequality. However, within each submarket, when three conditions hold, the only form of equilibrium outcome will be an extreme ‘fragmented’ structure. To test these predictions, firstly I propose methods to identify independent submarkets. Then I analyze the degree of inequality in bank sizes for markets with different levels of aggregation (submarkets, regions and national market). Using concentration by towns’ data, I find that in single submarket towns the degree of inequality of the size among banks is zero. Moreover, multimarket towns with a significant degree of concentration are shown to be formed by a different number of independent submarkets where each bank owns one branch. Nonetheless, when the regional and the national bank markets are considered, the degree of inequality in bank sizes becomes high. These results are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model.     

A new methodology linking concentration dynamics to current and steady-state profits:Examining Korean industrial policy during take-off

We model the dynamics of industrial structure and market power using Korean manufacturing data during the take-off period (1978–82). Structure–Conduct–Performance [SCP] methodologies have been criticized for using accounting data and because a few superior firms may have greater shares and greater profits. Both are argued to present possible spurious correlations between concentration and profits. This paper follows earlier work which shows that market structure responds to observed accounting profits as if these were accurate indices of real profits, and not as if leading firms are perceived to have unmatchable advantages. The methodological contribution of this model is a new latent variable for steady-state profits derived from the speed of structural adjustment. Long run profits are identified by the hypothesis that structural adjustment will be more rapid when industries are farther from steady-state levels. We analyze the long run profits latent variable, finding strong support for this hypothesis. The speed of adjustment is greater for positive and negative deviations from steady-state structure. We show that the profits and structural adjustment relationship is non-monotone. The SCP criticisms above are based on spurious correlations which are monotone in profits and structure. Positing spurious correlations which are at the same time monotone in structure and non-monotone in structural adjustment seems less plausible than accepting the SCP results which are consistent with both. Our analysis also is new in that it is the first direct econometric analysis of Korean industrial policy during its take-off years. We note that in Korea, unlike elsewhere, Industrial Policy was hypothesized to lead to concentration and market power in the popular press and by professional economists. Ours is the first direct econometric analysis of this hypothesis, and we find it supported.     

The dynamics of industrial concentration in Australian manufacturing

A dynamic model of concentration is developed, with incomplete and industry-specific adjustment to deviations of concentration from its steady state. Cross-sectional analysis is carried out against a sample of 102 Australian manufacturing industries at the Australian Standard Industrial Classification (ASIC) four-digit level over the period 1977/78–1984/85. The estimated adjustment is faster than found in studies of the more mature industrial economies and this adjustment is found to significantly increase with reductions in tariff protection. There is also empirical support for John Sutton's argument that the relationship between concentration and market size depends on whether set-up costs are exogenous.     

The Dynamics of Industry Concentration for U.S. Micro and Macro Brewers

In this update we document the changes in industry concentration of macro and micro brewers in the U.S. brewing industry since 1970. Technological change and the continued success of Anheuser–Busch forced the macro brewers into a war-of-attrition game and contributed to rising concentration in the macro sector of the industry. Homogenization of the beer produced by macro brewers, changes in local demand conditions, and a more favorable regulatory environment created profitable niches in many local markets for micro brewery beer, and entry into this sector occurred at a phenomenal rate from 1977 to 1998. Consistent with several models of industry dynamics, over-exuberance led to a shakeout as the number of micro breweries fell by over 16% from 1998 to 2002.     

Accounting for ARPU: New evidence from international panel data

Average revenue per user (ARPU) is commonly used by regulators and industry observers to compare the performance of mobile telephony markets. Under the new EU electronic communications regulatory framework, some national regulatory authorities (NRAs) have linked higher ARPU with ‘significant market power’. This paper empirically examines the determinants of ARPU in a systematic way, taking account of service quality, market environment, regulation and quantity of service. The robust results suggest that concentration may not be a reliable indicator of competition in mobile markets; there are economies of density in mobile markets; and higher GDP per capita increases ARPU.     

Telecommunications in the land of the Thunder Dragon: recent developments in Bhutan

This paper charts the development of telecommunications in Bhutan. Since the introduction of telecommunications services in 1963 Bhutan has faced many challenges as it has sought to roll out a network that covers the whole population and country. A small population, a mountainous geography, a transitional economy and a unique approach to development—Gross National Happiness—present many challenges that need to be overcome if the telecommunications industry is to develop further. Added to this is the decision of Bhutan to join the outside world through membership of the ITU, APT and WTO that has added liberalisation and privatisation to the challenges faced by Bhutan. This paper identifies two broad policy options that Bhutan could adopt—network expansion nationally or investment concentration towards urban areas. The authors conclude that due to the limited resources available to Bhutan these policies are contradictory and will take the telecommunications industry in quite different directions if adopted.     

U.S. Financial Services Consolidation: The Case of Corporate Credit Unions

This paper estimates a stochastic cost frontier forU.S. corporate credit unions using call report datafor 1992–1997. The results indicate that corporatecredit unions were 91 percent cost efficient, onaverage, over this period and that institutionspassing a larger percentage of their investments toU.S. Central Credit Union are more cost efficient. However, the economic magnitude of estimatedefficiency gains from investment concentration isfound to be modest. We conclude that the currentthree-tier hierarchical structure for the U.S. creditunion industry is likely to endure.     

Market Structure and Hospital Efficiency: Evaluating Potential Effects of Deregulation in a National Health Service

In this article we examine the potential effect of market structure on hospital technical efficiency as a measure of performance controlled by ownership and regulation. This study is relevant to provide an evaluation of the potential effects of recommended and initiated deregulation policies in order to promote market reforms in the context of a European National Health Service. Our goal was reached through three main empirical stages. Firstly, using patient origin data from hospitals in the region of Catalonia in 1990, we estimated geographic hospital markets through the Elzinga–Hogarty approach, based on patient flows. Then we measured the market level of concentration using the Herfindahl–Hirschman index. Secondly, technical and scale efficiency scores for each hospital was obtained specifying a Data Envelopment Analysis. According to the data nearly two-thirds of the hospitals operate under the production frontier with an average efficiency score of 0.841. Finally, the determinants of the efficiency scores were investigated using a censored regression model. Special attention was paid to test the hypothesis that there is an efficiency improvement in more competitive markets. The results suggest that the number of competitors in the market contributes positively to technical efficiency and there is some evidence that the differences in efficiency scores are attributed to several environmental factors such as ownership, market structure and regulation effects.     

Viewpoint: “Customized competitiveness” strategies for horticultural exporters – Central America focus with lessons from and for other regions

This paper presents the idea of “customized competitiveness” as a strategy necessary for overall competitiveness in particular in globalized horticulture markets and in the “second round” of globalization that started in the mid/late 1990s. Customized competitiveness is additional and complementary to basic “structural competitiveness” that is the focus of competitiveness debates today and for the past decade. The paper illustrates the need for this new strategy, using the example of Central America, highlighting the severe challenges (similar to those facing other developing regions) it faces in the second round of globalization of horticulture markets, magnified by market liberalization culminating recently in implementation of CAFTA. The paper then illustrates “solutions” by providing examples of cutting-edge programs in various developing countries of de facto “customized competitiveness” in the form of public–private partnerships and the provision of public and semi-public goods, to help their exporters access and succeed in the new markets. We conclude with policy implications for Central America and other developing regions.     

Implications of regulation for entry and investment in the local loop

A number of countries around the world are trying to promote competition at the local loop as demand for higher bandwidth to the home increases. Different technologies (xDSL, cable modems, and wireless local loop) offer alternative solutions and the issue for regulators is to design a framework that promotes competition and investment. Regulators can promote competition in a number of ways, but two “pure” strategies are services and infrastructure competition. This paper models the regulator and incumbent–entrant interactions explicitly in order to understand how the structure of the voice services might evolve under different regulatory frameworks. Our analysis suggests that a “mix” of infrastructure and service competition like the one promoted in Netherlands, stimulates investment by incumbents and entrants alike and offers better consumer benefits. The message for policy makers is that the introduction of “sunset clauses” provides new entrants with strong incentives to invest while allowing them to enter in service competition and to acquire important knowledge about their new market.     

Potential foreign competition in US manufacturing

Trade barriers are falling and firms are competing in increasingly open international markets. The data reveal considerable heterogeneity across industries in the intertemporal path of import-shares. Against this backdrop, we focus on an issue that is increasingly important for competition policy analysis: ‘potential’ foreign competition. Inadequate attention to this aspect could result in a biased picture of total competition, leading to misguided antitrust decisions. Drawing on the conceptual framework outlined by Landes and Posner [Harvard Law Review, 94 (1981) 937], we measure potential foreign competition by the intertemporal response of industry import-share to industry-specific and aggregate economic factors, and our estimates indicate wide variation across industries in this dimension. A particularly striking finding is that highly concentrated industries, which are more likely to be subject to antitrust scrutiny, have a greater degree of potential foreign competition than industries with low concentration, even though the extent of actual foreign competition is similar across these groups of industries.     

Competition in Grocery Retailing: The Impact of a New Strategic Group on BLS Price Increases

Metropolitan areas with a significant presence of warehouse stores had lower retail food price increases during 1977 to 1992 than did areas with no warehouse stores. The negative impact occurred largely during the first half of the 15-year period. Strategic learning appears to have led to a different response from incumbent supermarkets during 1985–1992. Change in prices was positively related to change in concentration and negatively related to entry.     

Durability Versus Concentration as an Explanation for Price Inflexibility

We document the extent of price rigidity across United States manufacturing industries in the 1980s and early 1990s and compare rigidity across different phases of the business cycle. We measure price rigidity in three ways – each under four different sets of assumptions. We take an approach that relies on disaggregated data; we look at price patterns for over 4000 individual manufactured commodities. Both durability and seller concentration are found to be important factors explaining differences in price rigidity across industrial product classes. Using our data, we replicate the regression results found in Carlton (1986) that were based on actual transaction prices from the 1960s.     

Variance amplification and the golden ratio in production and inventory control

A discrete linear control theory model of a generic model of a replenishment rule is presented. The replenishment rule, which we term a “Deziel Eilon—automatic pipeline, inventory and order-based production control system”, is guaranteed to be stable. From a z-transform model of the policy, an analytical expression for bullwhip is derived that is directly equivalent to the common statistical measure often used in simulation, statistical and empirical studies to quantify the bullwhip effect. This analytical expression clearly shows that we can reduce bullwhip by taking a fraction of the error between the target and actual inventory and pipeline (or work in progress (WIP) or “orders placed but not yet received”) positions. This is in contrast to the common situation where ordering policies account for all of the error every time an order is placed. Furthermore, increasing the average age of the forecast reduces bullwhip, as does reducing the production/distribution lead-time. We then derive an analytical expression for inventory variance using the same procedure to identify the closed form bullwhip expression.We assume that a suitable objective function is linearly related to the bullwhip and inventory variance amplification ratios and then optimise the PIC system for different weightings of order rate and inventory level variance. We highlight two forms of the objective function, one where “the golden ratio” can be used to determine the optimal gain in the inventory and WIP feedback loop and another that allows the complete range of possible solutions to be visualised. It is interesting that the golden ratio, which commonly describes the optimum behaviour in the natural world, also describes the optimal feedback gain in a production and inventory control system.     

Farm subsidies and obesity in the United States: National evidence and international comparisons

Many commentators have claimed that farm subsidies have contributed significantly to the “obesity epidemic” by making fattening foods relatively cheap and abundant. But U.S. farm policies have generally small and mixed effects on farm commodity prices, which in turn have even smaller and still mixed effects on the relative prices of more- and less-fattening foods. Other factors have had much more influence on reducing the farm prices of food commodities and the consumer prices of food such that any effects of U.S. farm policies on U.S. obesity patterns must have been negligible. Moreover, while many arguments can be made for changing U.S. farm subsidies, even entirely eliminating the current programs could not be expected to have a significant influence on obesity rates. International evidence reinforces this finding. The countries that support their farmers most strongly tend to have relatively low obesity rates. In these countries the main support for farmers comes through trade barriers and higher consumer prices, which—like U.S. policies for sugar, dairy, orange juice, and beef—discourage consumption and reduce obesity. In contrast with agricultural subsidies, agricultural R&D has had a significant effect in the past on the relative price of food commodities and food, and has the potential to influence obesity patterns in the future, but R&D policy is a very blunt instrument for pursuing public health policy objectives.     

R&D and the patent premium

We analyze the effect of patenting on R&D with a model linking a firm's R&D effort with its decision to patent, recognizing that R&D and patenting affect one another and are both driven by many of the same factors. Using survey data for the U.S. manufacturing sector, we estimate the increment to the value of an innovation realized by patenting it, and then analyze the effect on R&D of changing that premium. Although patent protection is found to provide a positive premium on average in only a few industries, our results also imply that the premium varies across industries and with firm size. Patent protection also stimulates R&D across all manufacturing industries, albeit with the magnitude of that effect varying substantially.     

Changes in trade and domestic distortions affecting China’s agriculture

This paper assesses the implications of China’s trade and domestic policies for incentives to producers in China. It uses a price comparison methodology (nominal rates of assistance—at the border and the farmgate), with adjustments for exchange rate distortions in the first part of the sample period (1981–1994). On average, distortions to agricultural incentives have been reduced. In the early 1980s, on average, China’s domestic prices were far below international prices. There were substantial variations, however, between imported (which were being protected) and exported goods. During the 1980s and 1990s the gap between domestic and international prices for both imports and exports narrowed initially mainly due to the elimination of domestic policy distortions. Between the mid-1990s and 2004, trade liberalization policy furthered narrowed the gap between world and China farmgate prices. By the mid-2000s, China’s agriculture was operating with only small price distortions.