ON THE RATIONALITY OF COMMON STOCK RETURN VOLATILITY

This paper derives the relationship between the population unconditional variance of common stock returns and the variance of expected returns conditional on a well-specified information set. As a consequence, a lower bound is obtained for the variance of common stock returns. The sample counterpart of this bound is then empirically tested against the sample variance of returns. The paper's main conclusion can be stated as follows: the observed volatility of real (inflation-adjusted) common stock returns is not “irrationally” large. The paper admits of this conclusion because the point estimate of the lower-bound variance derived in this model is actually larger than the point estimate of common stock return volatility. However, since these point estimates are found to have a statistically insignificant difference, equality of the two variances cannot be ruled out. Hence, “rationality” of common stock returns—as implied by a utility-based valuation conditional on a specified information set—cannot be rejected.     

EVIDENCE ON THE EXISTENCE OF COMMON STOCK INFLATION HEDGES

Previous researchers have been unable to identify (on an ex ante basis) inflation hedge portfolios consisting of common stocks. This study demonstrates a procedure for forming common stock portfolios that offer returns that vary positively with unexpected inflation. The strategy could have been used to hedge against purchasing power risk during the 1974–1979 period. In addition to its practical value, the research has important implications for capital asset pricing theory since the existence of hedge portfolios is a necessary condition for the superiority of the multi-period CAPM over the single-period models.     

THE VALUATION EFFECTS OF OUT-OF-THE-MONEY CALLS OF CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES

We examine the valuation effects of out-of-the-money calls of convertible securities. In general, out-of-the-money calls generate positive abnormal stock returns. These returns are higher when the call price exceeds the market value of the called securities (positive premium calls), compared with when the market value exceeds the call price (negative premium calls). Furthermore, Value Line Investment Survey net operating income forecasts are significantly higher after call announcements for positive premium calls, while the revision is insignificant for negative premium calls. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that positive premium calls signal positive information.     

THE ANNOUNCEMENT EFFECTS OF PREFERRED STOCK RE-RATINGS

This paper examines the equity return behavior of firms whose preferred stock ratings have been changed by Standard and Poor's. The evidence indicates that the market anticipates the re-ratings by approximately 40 days for the complete sample. However, the downgrades for the utility subsample do not experience any downward drift before or after the re-rating. In general, these results support the previous findings of Pinches and Singleton (1978) and Weinstein (1977).     

THE WEALTH EFFECTS OF TRACKING STOCK RESTRUCTURINGS

We provide a comprehensive examination of the post‐issue wealth effects of 29 completed tracking stock restructurings. We document that for the parent stock and for the combined firm, tracking stock restructurings lead to insignificant long‐term excess returns. However, we find that shareholders of tracking stocks realize significant post‐issue wealth losses. Unlike spin‐offs and carve‐outs, announcements of tracking stock restructurings are preceded by negative one‐year excess returns, and unlike the positive post‐issue long‐term excess returns to spin‐off stocks and the insignificant long‐term excess returns to carve‐out stocks, tracking stocks experience negative long‐term excess returns.     

VALUATION OF THE PREFERRED STOCK SINKING FUND FEATURE: A TIME-SERIES APPROACH

This study employs a time-varying coefficient model to examine the relationship between returns on preferred stock with a sinking fund and preferred stock without a sinking fund. The results provide evidence of a major shift in the relationship between the two types of preferred stock coincident to a major change in Federal Reserve Board monetary policy. Results also show several smaller shifts at other times. The findings lend only weak support to link the announcement of a change in bookkeeping practices for insurance companies with a contemporaneous change in the relationship between the two types of preferred issues, as previous studies contended.     

THE ANALYTICS OF TAX EFFECTS IN DISCOUNT BOND VALUATION

This paper discusses the analytics of tax effects in discount bond valuation. The author illustrates that bond value is a simple linear function of the tax rate on interest income, whereas bond value is concave to the capital gains tax rate. The author also analyzes how changes in tax rates interact with yield changes to affect bond valuation and how tax rates interact with maturity to determine the depth of bond discount.