信用风险转移矩阵在可转债定价研究中的应用

引入信用风险的传统可转债定价理论主要是运用有限差分方程和二叉树模型，本文则尝试将信用风险转移矩阵引入可转债信用风险的测量，进而结合美式期权估算方法以万科转债为例对可转债的定价进行了实证研究。     

Reduced-form Models with Regime Switching: An Empirical Analysis for Corporate Bonds

Empirical evidence shows that there is a close link between regime shifts and business cycle fluctuations. A standard term structure of interest rates, such as the Cox et al. (1985 Econometrica, 53, 385–407; CIR) model, is sharply rejected in the Treasury bond data. Only Markov regime-switching models on the entire yield curve of the Treasury bond data can account for the observed behavior of the yield curve. In this paper, we examine the impact of regime shifts on AAA-rated and BBB-rated corporate bonds through the use of a reduced-form model. The model is estimated by the Efficient Method of Moments (EMM). Our empirical results suggest that regime-switching risk has significant implications for corporate bond prices and hence has a material impact on the entire corporate bond yield curve, providing evidence for the approach of rating through the cycle employed by rating agencies.     

Financial Distress Costs and Delayed Calls of Convertible Bonds: An Empirical Analysis

Theoretical analysis implies that optimal call policy would be to call the bonds as soon as the conversion value equals the call price. Empirical studies, however, report that firms appear to systematically delay the call and the difference between the conversion value and the call price is large at the time of the call. This study examines convertible bond calls between 1977 and 1993, with a view to explain the large difference between the conversion value and the call-price at the time of the call. A large majority of the firms calling the bonds have cash-flow incentive to call the bonds in that the after-tax interest payments are higher than the dividends on the converted shares. The large difference between the conversion value and the call price is positively related to the risk characteristics of the firm. Evidence seems to support the view that risk aversion and fear of potential financial distress may explain the large difference at the time of call between the conversion value and the call price.     

地方政府债券的经济影响分析

地方政府债券的发行对经济的影响涉及宏观、微观、金融、财政、区域发展等多个层面.其在缓解地方财政困难的同时也可能助长地方政府负债冲动,对中央财政的影响则取决于地方政府自身的偿付能力及发债规模的控制.在微观层面.地方政府债券的发行会促进地方性公共品的供给,同时也有利于实现公共品受益的代际公平;在宏观层面,有助于克服利用外资的本币化倾向,规避汇率风险问题.此外,地方政府债券的推出也有助于完善金融市场和金融体系,其对区域经济发展的影响取决于发债地区的选择标准.在推出地方债券的同时,必须通过审慎的管理来防范其风险.     

李嘉图主义的国债经济效应观述评

李嘉图等价长期以来遭到了理论和实证上的批判,它与凯恩斯主义的国债经济效应观存在明显的差异,根源在于二者看待国债的角度完全不一样.家庭代际之间的利他主义为李嘉图等价成立提供了现实基础,流动性约束及市场的不完全性又使李嘉图等价脱离现实.由此,李嘉图等价既基于现实又脱离现实.     

未预期货币政策与企业债券信用利差——基于固浮利差分解的研究

本文利用固息债与浮息债利差将货币政策分解成预期和未预期部分,进而探讨未预期货币政策对企业债券市场信用利差所产生的动态影响与非对称效应。实证结果表明:第一,未预期货币政策对企业债券信用利差的影响更为显著;第二,在经济周期的繁荣时期,未预期货币政策对企业债券信用利差的作用更大;第三,对比不同期限的企业债,货币政策对中长期企业债信用利差的作用更为显著,而对短期的影响较小。     

转让定价的经济分析

转让定价是国际税收领域的重要问题,许多研究把避税作为转让定价讨论的既定前提。但是,本文的经济模型分析表明:关联企业之间的定价并没有违反边际收益等于边际成本的利润最大化原则。从资源配置方面来考察转让定价,跨国公司的转让定价操作只是对各国税收税率差异的自然反应。关税和公司所得税的征收增加了跨国公司的边际成本,跨国公司通过改变转让价格可以降低或抵销税收对利润最大化的不利影响。     

出口退税的经济分析

本从对外贸易的角度，试图分析1985年以来出口退税、进口关税和出口贸易对经济运行的影响。     

可转债转股对标的股票价格影响的实证研究

本文研究了可转债转股行为对标的股票价格的影响,这对可转债的定价具有重要的意义。通过运用事件研究法,对自2001年4月以来上市的可转债转股对标的股票价格的影响进行了实证分析,结果表明：可转债转股在初期会使其标的股票产生显著为正的超额收益,而后随着转股权的执行、股价的下跌,超额收益率显著为负,即可转债转股会对股权产生稀释效应。同时,在剔除指数波动率影响的情况下,实证研究表明可转债转股对股票波动率没有显著的影响。     

可转换公司债在公司股权激励中的运用

国际证券市场发展的历史表明，可转换公司债券是一个完善的证券市场所不可或缺的重要组成部分，实践经验也证明可转债完全可以成为公司股权激励制度的重要组成部分。     

逃税的经济分析

本文建立了逃税的成本收益模型，通过该模型分析了影响逃税数额的各种因素，包括税率水平、逃税者的风险偏好、逃税可能受到的处罚、逃税的操作成本、舞弊的心理代价等，并结合我国税收管理及相关制度的现实，提出了建立科学严谨的税收制度；适当设置征管机构，健全税务机关内部管理制度；提高技术水平和税务人员的业务水平；改变税务机关工作的评价标准；建立公共品需求对公共品供给的影响机制，捉高公共品供给的透明度；改变税收宣传方式；注重纳税人的权利，改善税务部门和其他政府部门的服务水平等遏制逃税的政策建议。     

注册会计师“诚信”的经济学分析

本文从博弈的角度对注册会计师的“诚信”进行了经济学分析 ,认为“诚信”实质上就是博弈参与方为了长远利益而“牺牲”眼前利益的一种非正式约束 ,其能否自动实施取决于以下因素 :产权的清晰程度、行业租金的大小、审计师如果舞弊被发现的概率以及所受处罚的大小和审计师来自于管理层的“审计租”的大小。通过对现实的考察 ,笔者发现我国目前还不具备产生“诚信”的制度基础。最后 ,笔者对“诚信”的构筑提出相应政策建议。     

经济虚拟化、货币供应量与经济增长——以OECD国家为例的实证分析

随着全球金融资产规模不断扩大,货币在大部分发达国家呈现出非中性的特点,由此从虚拟经济的视角对这一现象进行了解释。运用14个OECD国家2000—2017年宏观数据进行了实证分析,实证结果发现:在OECD国家货币供应量与经济增长呈现明显的正相关关系,而且在实证模型中经济虚拟化程度与货币供应量作用的交互项显著地正向影响经济增长。这充分说明了在经济虚拟化程度高的OECD国家,货币供应量通过货币增发会使虚拟经济部门的产出增加,从而导致经济增长,所以货币呈现出非中性的特征。     

An Economic Analysis of Interest Rate Swaps

Interest rate swaps, a financial innovation in recent years, are based upon the principle of comparative advantage. An interest rate swap is a useful tool for active liability management and for hedging against interest rate risk. The purpose of this paper is to provide a simple economic analysis of interest rate swaps. Alternative uses of and the appropriate valuation procedure for interest rate swaps are described.     

The Changing Role of Nominal Government Bonds in Asset Allocation

The covariance between nominal bonds and stocks has varied considerably over recent decades and has even switched sign. It has been predominantly positive in periods such as the late 1970s and early 1980s when the economy has experienced supply shocks and the central bank has lacked credibility. It has been predominantly negative in periods such as the 2000s when investors have feared weak aggregate demand and deflation. Nominal bonds are attractive to short-term equity investors when these bonds are negatively correlated with stocks, as has been the case during the 2000s and especially during the downturn of 2007–2008. They are attractive to conservative long-term investors when long-term inflationary expectations are stable, for then these bonds are close substitutes for inflation-indexed bonds that are riskless in the long term.     

Optimal Put Exercise: An Empirical Examination of Conditions for Mortgage Foreclosure

Implicit in option-pricing models of mortgage valuation are threshold levels of put-option value that must be crossed to induce borrower default. There has been little research into what these threshold values are that come out of pricing models or how they compare to exercised option values seen in empirical data. This study decomposes boundary conditions for optimal default exercise to look at the economic dynamics that should lead to optimal default timing. Empirical data on FHA insured mortgage foreclosures is then examined to discern the predictive influence of optimal-option-valuation-and-exercise variables on observed default timing and values. Interesting results include a new understanding of how to measure and use property equity variables during economic downturns, house-price index ranges over which default is exercised for various classes of borrowers, and implied differences in appreciation rates between market-price indices and foreclosed properties.     

可转债定价实证

可转债的合理定价是债券成功发行的关键,对其隐含的标的股票看涨期权价值衡量主要有B-S模型和二叉树模型两种方法。近年来,可转债在中国市场取得了很大发展,两种可转债定价模型在中国可转债市场定价的适用性研究不论是从理论意义还是从实际应用的角度来说,都应得到投资者的重视。     

短期融资券发行利差结构分析

本文选取175只短期融资券为样本，研究各主要因素对短期融资券发行利差的影响。实证分析发现，短期融资券发行利差具有明显的期限结构，并受到发行规模、央票利率水平、企业性质和重大信用风险事件的显著影响，个另4行业和超大型企业也能享受一定的利差优惠。研究还表明，现阶段在发行人个体层面没有明显的利差结构性差异，表现为发行人财务指标对发行利差的影响不显著。     

地方政府债对经济增长的外部性研究

作为积极财政政策的重要组成部分,地方政府债券是支持基础设施补短板、稳投资的重要资金来源。在宏观经济下行压力持续增大背景下,地方政府债券发行规模扩大、覆盖领域增多,对公共投资促进作用不断增强。为了解地方政府债的外部效应,我们对私人部门投资、工业增加值等其他领域进行实证研究,发现在当前债务水平下,增发专项债可以有效提升工业增加值、民间投资,为地方债在经济运行中的作用提供理论支撑。针对地方政府债资金拨付实施中存在的问题,需通过完善制度、优化发债流程等措施进行优化,提高地方债资金使用效率。