AGRICULTURE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PAPUA AND NEW GUINEA

Primary production including subsistence production, accounts for about 60 per cent of the national income of Papua and New Guinea. The bulk of the indigenous people are subsistence farmers, or have contact with the cash economy through agriculture, and the agricultural industries provide virtually the sole source of export earnings. The position is nevertheless changing rapidly.     

CHANGES IN THE TERMS OF TRADE FOR AGRICULTURE: NEW PLATEAU OR NEW PRECIPICE*

This paper looks at the recent boom in agricultural commodity prices to see to what extent the changes these prices reflect are of a structural rather than short term nature. It concludes that they are essentially short term: a lagged supply response to the agricultural depression of 1970 and 1971; the coincidence of normal commodity cycles for several commodities; an unusual coincidence of adverse seasonal conditions in major producing areas, particularly the U.S.S.R.; and an unprecedented upswing in world economic activity. Nevertheless, there are a number of factors which suggest that, other than possibly in short term disequilibrium situations, agricultural commodity prices will not decline to previous levels: worldwide inflation; redirection in world agricultural support policies; and the energy crisis. Many of these factors win also influence prices of manufactured goods and hence the terms of trade. After considering the problems of world food supplies and continued growth in world population, the paper suggests that there is little evidence of a major structural change in the market for agricultural commodities. Rather, it points to a return to the previous situation where there is a slight tendency for the terms of trade to move against agriculture.     

AN INPUT-OUTPUT VIEW OF AGRICULTURE IN PAPUA NEW GUINEA

Despite the dependence of the economy of Papua New Guinea upon plantation and smallholder agriculture, little has been known of the inter-relationships which exist between agriculture and the remainder of the economy, or of the changes which would follow from implementation of the official development programme. In this article, a recently completed input-output table is used to quantify these relationships in 1970 and to project changes over the period to 1978.     

积极稳妥地推进我国农业现代化建设

到下世纪中叶,我国农业现代化发展可划分为“初步实现”和“基本实现”两个阶段目标。当前应通过深化改革,以加快农业现代化的进程。同时,本文还提出了推进我国农业现代化建设的政策建议     

产业化——安徽省农业可持续发展的定位

为促进农村经济发展，农民增收，要大力推进农业产业化经营；在分析安徽省农业经济的现状和农业产业化面临的主要问题的基础上，提出了加快农业产业化进程，实现安徽省农业可持续发展的建议。     

THE MEASUREMENT OF MANAGERIAL EFFICIENCY IN AGRICULTURE*

This paper is an outline only of a Ph.D. thesis submitted to the University of Nottingham. The paper proposes a socio-economic model of farm production with special emphasis placed on the role of management: formulates an econometric model, to represent the socio-economic model, in which the degree of managerial efficiency appears as a variable, and suggests means of interpretation of the econometric model to aid farm planning at the individual farm level.     

THE ECONOMIC SURPLUS OF AGRICULTURE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The economic surplus of an industry is defined as the difference between its real product, and the real income accruing to it. The surplus from U.K. agriculture measured at 1964/65–66/67 prices is estimated to have risen by about 20 million per year in recent years. The absorption of this surplus by other sectors is identified and an approximate indication is given of the equivalent surpluses and deficits of other industry groups. The economic surplus from agriculture is transferred principally through changes in relative prices, the necessity of which tends to create an unavoidable minimum rate of inflation. There is an international equivalent of these transfers of real income through price changes, but without the institutional constraints on the market which in the domestic economy preserve some measure of equity in the distribution of income.     

STRATEGIES FOR DEALING WITH AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND

Full integration of agriculture into the GATT framework is shown to be the most fruitful approach to resolve agricultural trade problems and to ensure an overall success of the Uruguay Round. Full integration implies, however, that certain widely discussed ideas for agricultural trade reform, such as producer subsidy equivalents, will be less useful. An alternative proposal for trade reform is outlined which is applicable across all sectors and hence would better promote full integration of agriculture into GATT.     

THE RETURNS FROM RESEARCH IN AUSTRALIAN BROADACRE AGRICULTURE*

Many people share the view that too little is invested in R & D in agriculture. The relationship between several measures of productivity and research expenditure was estimated using data from ABARE's surveys of broadacre industries and a new data series on R & D expenditure for the period 1953 to 1988. The internal rate of return to research was estimated to be in the range of 15 to 40 percent which does not provide strong evidence that Australia is either under- or over-investing in public research.     

THE PROBLEM OF AGRICULTURE IN A EUROPEAN ECONOMIC UNION

A revaluation of the German Mark has been hindered by the effects that this would have on German farm prices, given the E.E.C. agricultural policy. The article therefore examines the implications of (a) a common agricultural price level, and (b) fixed or adjustable exchange rates within a customs union such as the E.E.C. It concludes that a change in relative price levels between countries couldbe tackled by means of exchange rate changes, while retaining a common agricultural price level; but even with adjustable exchange rates, a common price level may give rise to diBculties unless agricultural productivity in the member countries grows in a particular way. It finally suggests that a wider European economic union would require niorejexible arrangements than those at present in force in the E. E.C.     

AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: AMBITIONS AND REALITIES

Agricultural trade policies are basically a function of domestic policy considerations which have produced high levels of support in many countries. New policy instruments such as direct payments, which are more demanding in terms of information costs but which distort resource allocation less, are becoming more attractive. Unilateral liberalisation is, however, unlikely. Freer trade is a public good which requires international collective action to be provided. Countries which have a clear-cut trade interest in liberalising markets for commodities they export can play the role of catalyst in international co-ordination. The existence of big players is a favourable factor. Hence, the drift of the Round towards a co-ordination of US-EC interests. Both political economy and trade interest considerations suggest that an agreement reached will have its main impact on crops which are widely traded. The main constraining factor of an agreement on EC and US agriculture will be the discipline it will impose on the use of export subsidies. Agriculture will still not come fully under GATT rules which apply to other sectors, but in the future the CAP will be more constrained by international commitments than in the past.     

THE IMPORTANCE OF PRODUCED MEANS OF PRODUCTION IN UK AGRICULTURE

Neoclassical production theory assumes that outputs and inputs can be separated into two distinct commodity groups. However, this fails to take account of the presence of produced means of production in agriculture which undermine the ceteris paribus assumption on which partial equilibrium analysis is based-a criticism identified as part of the broader Sraffian critique of neoclassical economics. A simulation exercise designed to investigate the importance of produced inputs in UK agriculture found evidence of perverse aggregate supply response resulting from the use of feedgrain, an output from the cereal sector, as a produced input in the livestock sectors. This empirical result lends some support to the Sraffian analysis; however, it is suggested that the perversity arises from failure to take account of the produced input, and that computing ‘net output’     

AGRICULTURE IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT THE COMPETITIVE APPROACH VERSUS SOVIET CONTROL

In an economy of full employment, economic growth largely occurs as a result of a transfer of resources from the agricultural to the industrial sector. Two different and opposing means of obtaining this transfer have been developed: the Soviet model, in which resources are shifted by command; and the competitive model, in which resources are shifted through the price mechanism. This study presents the two models in precise form and attempts to determine which is the most efficient in terms of encouraging long-run growth. Difficulties with data allow only a historical statistical comparison, but certain tentative conclusions can be drawn
Dans une économie de plain emploi, la croissance économique est largement at-tribuable au transferi de ressources du secteur agricole au secteur industriel. Deux méthodes différenles et opposées ont été développées pour oblenir ce transfer!: le modèle soviétique, où les ressources sont déplacées par ordre du gouvernemenl, el le modèle de concurrence, où les ressources sont déplacées par moyen de contrôle de prix. Celte étude précise ces deux modèles et cherche à déterminer quelle méthode est la plus efficace en ce qui concerne la croissance économique à long terme. Des difficultés avec les données ne permettent qu'une comparaison siatistique historique mais certaines conclusions tentatives sont quand meme possibles