COMPETITIVE PRICING AND EFFICIENCY IN SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM*

We consolidate and generalize some results on price determination and efficiency in search equilibrium. Extending models by Rubinstein and Wolinsky and by Gale, heterogeneous buyers and sellers meet according to a general matching technology and prices are determined by a general bargaining condition. When the discount rate r and search costs converge to 0, we show that prices in all exchanges are the same and equal the competitive, market clearing, price. Given positive search costs, efficiency obtains iff bargaining satisfies Hosios' condition and r=0. When prices are set by third‐party market makers, however, we show that search equilibrium is necessarily efficient.     

BACKGROUND RISK AND THE THEORY OF THE COMPETITIVE FIRM UNDER UNCERTAINTY*

This paper examines the optimal production decision of a firm under output price risk á la Sandmo when the firm also faces a dependent background risk. It is shown that standard risk aversion plus a non-negative association between the output price risk and the background risk are sufficient to ensure a reduction in the firms optimal output upon introduction of the background risk. The paper investigates the impact of a deterministic transformation of the background risk on the firms optimal production decision. It is shown that decreasing absolute risk aversion in Ross' sense is among the sufficient conditions that generate an unambiguous negative comparative static result.     

PRICE CONSTRAINTS,FORWARD MARKETS AND THE COMPETITIVE FIRM UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY*

This article proposes a model of the competitive firm simultaneously facing price constraints and forward markets under price uncertainty. The incorporation of a forward market is shown to be very important because a risk-averse firm will set its production decision to the forward price regardless of its attitude toward risk. In addition, we show that risk aversion is a sufficient condition for a decrease in risk to reduce the amount hedged when risk is reduced through a mean-preserving price squeeze.     

KNOWLEDGE AND GROWTH IN THE VERY LONG RUN

This article proposes a theory for the gradual evolution of knowledge diffusion and growth over the very long run. A feedback mechanism between capital accumulation and the ease of knowledge diffusion explains a long epoch of stasis and an epoch of high growth linked by a gradual economic takeoff. The feedback mechanism can explain the Great Divergence, the failure of less developed countries to attract capital from abroad, and the productivity slowdown. An extension toward a two‐region world economy shows robustness of results and other interesting interaction between forerunners and followers of the Industrial Revolution.     

THE MARKET SELECTS THE WRONG FIRMS IN THE LONG RUN*

We consider the effects of free entry on the market structure and social welfare of an asymmetric Cournot oligopoly. Even if we allow for the existence of different types of firms initially, only one type (in almost all cases) can survive in the long run. Free entry leads an economy to a symmetric equilibrium, in which the excess entry theorem holds. Further, we consider the socially optimal policy for this economy. In cases of either (i) a concave demand (which implies strategic substitutability) or (ii) strategic complementarity (which implies a convex demand), the type of firms that should remain in the market to achieve social optimality does not necessarily coincide with the type of firms that will survive in the long run. The market may select not only the wrong number of firms but also the wrong type of firms in the long run.     

THE LONG RUN PHILLIPS CURVE AND THE GOVERNMENT BUDGET CONSTRAINT

This paper considers the proposition that the long run Phillips Curve is vertical except in special cases. It argues that this proposition cannot be sustained once the implications of the government budget constraint are considered. It is then a matter for government policy choice whether the long run Phillips Curve is vertical or non-vertical, and neither case can be considered more general than the other.     

ON THE GAME‐THEORETIC FOUNDATIONS OF COMPETITIVE SEARCH EQUILIBRIUM*

We provide a unified directed search framework with general production and matching specifications that encompass most of the existing literature. We prove the existence of subgame perfect Nash equilibria in pure firm strategies in a finite version of the model. We use this result to derive a more complete characterization of the equilibrium set for the finite economy and to extend convergence results as the economy becomes large to general production and matching specifications. The latter extends the microfoundations for the standard market utility assumption used in competitive search models with a continuum of agents to new environments.     

东亚货币竞争性均衡与人民币货币锚效应

人民币的升值空间,取决于东亚货币的集体竞争性均衡。东亚货币的集体升值,有助于缓解全球国际收支失衡,提高东亚经济的福利水平。东亚区域已经存在通过人民币的升值带动东亚区域整体升值的基础,人民币升值并不必然导致出口竞争力的下降,却能起到提高区域福利水平,缓解全球国际收支失衡的作用。     

MODELING THE EVOLUTION OF EXPECTATIONS AND UNCERTAINTY IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM

We develop methods to solve general equilibrium models in which forward‐looking agents are subject to waves of pessimism, optimism, and uncertainty that turn out to critically affect macroeconomic outcomes. Agents in the model are fully rational and conduct Bayesian learning, and they know that they do not know. Therefore, agents take into account that their beliefs will evolve according to what they will observe. This framework accommodates both gradual and abrupt changes in beliefs and allows for an analytical characterization of uncertainty. We use a prototypical Real Business Cycle model to illustrate the methods.     

RISK,UNCERTAINTY AND CHINA'S EXPORTS*

Both theoretical and empirical models were developed in this paper to examine how exporters’ response to real exchange rate volatility (RERV) and real exchange rate misalignment (RERM) varies across industries in China. The theoretical model indicates that the impact of RERV depends on exporters’ attitude to risk while the effect of RERM is ambiguous. Using disaggregated industry data, Chinese exporters were found to be averse to RERV and RERM. This suggests that the negative impact on China's exports resulting from a revaluation of the RMB will be mitigated by a positive impact due to the reduction of RERM.     

MODEL UNCERTAINTY AND EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY*

This article proposes an explanation for shifts in the volatility of exchange‐rate returns. Agents are uncertain about the true data generating model and deal with this uncertainty by making inference on the models and their parameters' approach, I call model learning. Model learning may lead agents to focus excessively on a subset of fundamental variables. Consequently, exchange‐rate volatility is determined by the dynamics of these fundamentals and changes as agents alter models. I investigate the empirical relevance of model learning and find that the change in volatility of GBP/USD in 1993 was triggered by a shift between models.     

MANAGING CALIFORNIA's WATER IN THE LONG RUN

Water development in the western states has passed through an "expansive" phase and now is entering an "intensive" phase. Large untapped sources of high-quality fresh water no longer are available. Using current supplies more efficiently and reallocating water among uses will be necessary so as to sustain economic growth. Water conservation, particularly in the agricultural sector, will be an important part of decreasing both the quantity problems and the quality problems that have developed. This paper discusses alternative policies for gaining these benefits.     

EQUILIBRIUM LENDING MECHANISM AND AGGREGATE ACTIVITY*

We construct a model of the credit market where financial contracting is subject to costly state verification and moral hazard. The economy's aggregate activity and its equilibrium lending mechanism are determined jointly. We analyze how changes in the model's exogenous variables, including the returns of the economy's investment projects and the supply of loans, affect the economy's aggregate output and the types of the credit through which investment is funded.     

THE HARROD–BALASSA–SAMUELSON HYPOTHESIS: REAL EXCHANGE RATES AND THEIR LONG‐RUN EQUILIBRIUM*

Frictions and perturbations may influence currency values in the short run, but it is generally acknowledged that real‐exchange rates eventually settle toward equilibrium. The puzzle then is how gradually this parity is reached given the fluidity in foreign exchange markets. Persistent differences in the relative productivity of countries—a broad characterization of the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis—may help explain this puzzle. This article introduces methods to estimate equilibrium adjustment paths semiparametrically, and then sort how each of these components influences the dynamics of exchange rates. This is done in a dynamic panel setting by introducing novel local projections methods for cointegrated systems. Productivity shocks affect dynamics, and after adjusting for these factors, adjustment toward equilibrium is relatively rapid.