BASIS RISK AND HEDGING STRATEGIES FOR AUSTRALIAN WHEAT EXPORTS

Basis risk can play a significant role in the determination of effective hedging strategies. In this paper a portfolio framework is developed to examine the effect of basis risk on hedging strategies for Australian wheat exports. Monthly data for the period 1977 to 1984 were used to implement the analytical framework. While the traditional definition of hedging implies a hedge ratio of unity, the results of this research show that the average ratio of optimal hedge to stockholding is well below unity. Evolving market conditions can also cause the optimal hedge ratio to vary substantially over time.     

TRADE REFORM AND THE PROSPECTS FOR PROCESSED FOOD EXPORTS FROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

This paper draws attention to the relative neglect of the consequences of barriers to processed food exports from developing countries in the literature examining the effects on these countries of agricultural trade liberalisation. These barriers are of three kinds: trade policy barriers; differing health, food safety and environmental standards; and, barriers arising from the evolving market structure in food processing and distribution in developed country markets. The paper discusses the likely significance of the gains to developing countries from reduction of tariffs on processed food commodities and examines the consequences of the EU single market programme for developing country food exports.     

QUALITY PREMIUMS FOR AUSTRALIAN WHEAT IN THE GROWING ASIAN MARKETS

An hedonic price function is applied to Australia's wheat exports to the growing Asian markets. The values for the quality characteristics in the wheat markets of Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, and Thailand are estimated. The data base for the study is from the Australian Wheat Board shipments over the period 1984 to 1991. The sample is divided into two separate time periods to test the consistency in demand for export wheat and to trace recent trends in quality premiums. The implications of the results for wheat marketing and trade are explored.     

ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS THROUGH UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT ACTION

The historical rise in importance of United States agricultural exports, and the attempts of government to maintain or expand them, are the main concern of this article. The development of this setting is intended to assist in explaining the present large scale actions used to promote exports through subsidies, special sales, and barter arrangements.     

WOOL POLICY IN THE UNITED STATES: ITS DIRECT IMPACT ON AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS

Australian apparel wool exports to the United States are less than they might be because of two protective policies of the U.S. government: a fixed tariff and a system of direct price.support payments to U.S. wool producers. Dismantling these policies, though difficult, could mean $10 million to $21 million worth of additional Australian wool sales to the United States, over 1966 levels. Most of the increase would come from tariff cuts. Such amounts are worth negotiating for but would not solve the industry's problems.     

FORECASTING FOR AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURE

The paper provides a review of the objectives of forecasts and of the techniques for generating forecasts in the context of agriculture. Forecasts provide information to facilitate decision making. The techniques are evaluated in terms of assumptions about the processes generating the forecast variables, their relative requirements for time, data and other resources, and their relative forecast accuracy. An evaluation of naive, informal model and econometric model forecasts of Australian agricultural commodity prices and production levels is reported.     

政府监管与蔬菜质量安全研究

蔬菜质量安全问题,已成为我国政府和民众关注的焦点,成为影响我国蔬菜国际竞争力、持续增加我国农民收入、全面建设小康社会的关键因素.该文在分析我国农产品质量安全监管现状的基础上,重点分析了我国蔬菜质量安全存在的主要问题,并从政府机关、生产供应层面、创业协会提出了相应的对策.     

THE INVENTORY SCHEME FOR AUSTRALIAN WOOL

A model put forward by the Australian Wool Corporation to simulate the behaviour of the wool market under an inventory scheme is described. Some deficiencies in the model are pointed out and suggestions are made for alterations to improve the model's performance.     

粮食供给侧:“按量补贴”与“按质补贴”

[目的]2017年中央一号文件强调,在推进农业供给侧改革中,农业由满足量的需求,向更加注重满足质的需求转变。那么,粮食供给如何实现这一转变,从强调粮食产量向注重粮食质量、兼顾粮食产量的方向转变?尽管粮食质量的衡量是一个多维度的复杂问题,但是质量终归会反映成价格。[方法]通过粮食供给需求的均衡分析,建构了粮食补偿数理模型,研究了按面积补偿向按量补偿、按量补偿向按质补偿转变的条件。[结果]在粮食供给侧改革中,在耕地面积等条件不变的条件下,要实现这一转变,就需要突出规模效应,通过规模化生产补贴和品牌化发展策略实现。在此理论分析基础上,通过美国、中国、日本、俄罗斯、印度的粮食生产的相关性分析,进一步佐证了上述观点。[结论]结合实践经验,提出以规模化生产补贴、区域品牌或农户品牌来实现粮食质量的提升。     

A PLANTING FUNCTION FOR PRIVATE AFFORESTATION IN NORTHERN IRELAND

Due to food surpluses, farming throughout the EEC has been put under increasing pressure to diversify. In line with this general trend, the Forest Service of the Department of Agriculture in Northern Ireland has endeavoured to increase the acreage under private afforestation. A knowledge of the responsiveness of private plantation to changes in grant aid and the time-scale involved in the reallocation of land towards afforestation is essential. This paper constructs a planting function, based on distributed lag structures, for private afforestation projects in Northern Ireland in an attempt to provide the relevant information.     

山西优质小杂粮产业化条件比较分析

小杂粮作为山西农村经济的重要组成部分,是加入WTO之后发展应世农业的潜力产业,实现产业化开发,是山西优质小杂粮走向世界的必然选择。文章通过对生产优势条件和存在问题进行综合分析,力求突破小杂粮产业化发展的瓶颈,为自然资源优势转化成经济优势创造条件。     

我国农业生产中粮食质量安全问题分析

目前,我国农业和农村经济、社会事业取得了长足的发展。随着粮食的持续增产,粮食生产总量已基本满足消费需求,但是由于过分依赖施用化肥、农药来增加产量,以及重金属污染等,存在一定的质量安全隐患的问题。所以,在重金属污染和农药残留相当严重的情况下,粮食质量安全成为我国农业发展的迫切需求,特别是伴随着城镇化、工业化的迅速推进,粮食安全不容忽视。笔者提出国家的顶层设计应把“粮食质量安全”作为 “关注民生”的重要内容;大力培育农业生产者 “健康农业”意识,提高操作技能把;加强农业生产要素的质量监测,并通过立法手段确保农业生产资料的质量安全等。     

适度粮食安全成本与粮食总产出的实证分析——以江苏省为例

文章从介绍粮食安全成本的相关理论与现实意义出发,对粮食安全成本的内涵进行了界定,并对狭义的粮食安全成本与广义的粮食安全成本的内涵进行了界定与分析,并对江苏省粮食安全成本与粮食总产量的现状进行了分析与描述。在此基础上,选取2000~2014年粮食总产量与粮食安全成本(政府成本)的相关统计数据,建立样本的回归方程来观察总体的情况,运用Eviews6.0进行计量分析。分析结果表明:江苏省粮食安全成本对粮食产量有显著的影响,但江苏省粮食安全成本投入太多,已经远远超过了经济增长、粮食产量的增长速度,多投入的成本并没有使产量得到预期的增加。对江苏省粮食安全成本高的主要原因归纳为:粮食生产成本高、政府对国有粮企的补贴高、耕地资源不足及流失严重。并提出降低江苏省粮食安全成本的对策是通过实行粮食规模化生产经营降低粮食生产成本、实行国有粮食改革,淘汰僵尸国企以减少政府对国有粮企的财政补贴及实行严格的耕地保护制度。     

A HEDONIC PRICE FUNCTION FOR AUSTRALIAN PREMIUM TABLE WINE*

A hedonic price function, relating the price of Australian wine to its attributes, is estimated. Six attribute groups are found to be statistically important in explaining deviations from average wine prices, i.e., quality, cellaring potential, grape variety/style, grape region, grape vintage and producer size. Various interaction terms between these variables and the impact of the year of marketing are also modelled. The consequent marketing implications for producers and consumers are discussed.