Modeling nonlinear dynamics of daily futures price changes

The purpose of this article is to characterize linear and nonlinear serial dependence in daily futures price changes. The daily prices of four futures are included in this study: (i) S&P 500; (ii) Japanese yen; (iii) Deutsche mark; and (iv) Eurodollar. Our major empirical findings are: (i) Based on the results of nonlinearity tests (that is, the BDS, the Q², and the TAR-F tests), we found all futures price changes contain nonlinearity in the series; (ii) a GARCH model can explain the source of nonlinearity for three out of four series; (iii) a threshold autoregressive model and autoregressive volatility model can adequately represent nonlinear dynamics of S&P 500 series; and (iv) deterministic chaos is not evident in the scaled residuals from the nonlinear time series models. Hence we favor a statistical time series approach to represent the data-generating mechanism of futures price changes. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 325–351, 1999     

How far have we come and where should we go after 30+ years of research on Africa's emerging financial markets? A systematic review and a bibliometric network analysis

In this study, we perform a systematic literature review and a bibliometric network analysis of studies on Africa's financial markets from 1992 to 2021. The findings are as follows. First, we observe a steady growth of financial markets research in Africa over the 30-year period under consideration, which is suggestive of increasing interest and commitment to research on financial markets in Africa. Additionally, we note a lack of collaboration between or among researchers of financial markets studies in Africa, which implies very little knowledge exchange, ideas sharing, and innovations. We identify seven major areas of research based on the thematic network and content analysis, which are as follows: (i) asset pricing, (ii) financial integration, (iii) contagion, herding and extreme global events, (iv) efficiency and predictability of stock returns, (v) market interdependencies-sources and channels, (vi) portfolio diversification and risk management strategies, and (vii) impact of economic and financial news. We offer several avenues for future research that can set the agenda for financial market research in Africa in the coming years.     

COHERENT ACCEPTABILITY MEASURES IN MULTIPERIOD MODELS

The framework of coherent risk measures has been introduced by Artzner et al. (1999; Math. Finance 9, 203–228) in a single-period setting. Here, we investigate a similar framework in a multiperiod context. We add an axiom of dynamic consistency to the standard coherence axioms, and obtain a representation theorem in terms of collections of multiperiod probability measures that satisfy a certain product property. This theorem is similar to results obtained by Epstein and Schneider (2003; J. Econ. Theor. 113, 1–31) and Wang (2003; J. Econ. Theor. 108, 286–321) in a different axiomatic framework. We then apply our representation result to the pricing of derivatives in incomplete markets, extending results by Carr, Geman, and Madan (2001; J. Financial Econ. 32, 131–167) to the multiperiod case. We present recursive formulas for the computation of price bounds and corresponding optimal hedges. When no shortselling constraints are present, we obtain a recursive formula for price bounds in terms of martingale measures.     

Estimation and hedging effectiveness of time‐varying hedge ratio: Flexible bivariate garch approaches

Bollerslev's ( 1990 , Review of Economics and Statistics, 52, 5–59) constant conditional correlation and Engle's (2002, Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 20, 339–350) dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (BGARCH) models are usually used to estimate time‐varying hedge ratios. In this study, we extend the above model to more flexible ones to analyze the behavior of the optimal conditional hedge ratio based on two (BGARCH) models: (i) adopting more flexible bivariate density functions such as a bivariate skewed‐t density function; (ii) considering asymmetric individual conditional variance equations; and (iii) incorporating asymmetry in the conditional correlation equation for the DCC‐based model. Hedging performance in terms of variance reduction and also value at risk and expected shortfall of the hedged portfolio are also conducted. Using daily data of the spot and futures returns of corn and soybeans we find asymmetric and flexible density specifications help increase the goodness‐of‐fit of the estimated models, but do not guarantee higher hedging performance. We also find that there is an inverse relationship between the variance of hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 30:71–99, 2010     

Can Mutual Fund Investors Distinguish Good from Bad Managers?

Mutual fund flows respond significantly to the return gap, which captures information about unobserved actions of mutual funds and predicts future performance. The sensitivity of fund flows to the return gap is: (i) strong and positive; (ii) increasing with investor sophistication; (iii) highly nonlinear; and (iv) decreasing with the informativeness of past fund returns. On average, the response of investors to the return gap enhances their performance. Our findings suggest there is a sophisticated mass of investors who can distinguish good from bad managers using information that may not be directly inferred from standard performance indicators.     

Option-implied betas and the cross section of stock returns

We investigate the cross-sectional relationship between stock returns and a number of measures of option-implied beta. Using portfolio analysis, we show that the method proposed by Buss and Vilkov (2012, The Review of Financial Studies, 2525, 3113–3140) leads to a stronger relationship between implied beta and stock returns than other approaches. However, using the Fama and MacBeth (1973, Journal of Political Economy, 8181, 607–636) cross-section regression methodology, we show that the relationship is not robust to the inclusion of other firm characteristics. We further show that a similar result holds for implied downside beta. We, therefore, conclude that there is no robust relation between option-implied beta and returns.     

A path analysis interpretation of consumer decision-making under conditions of potential risk

This study investigates consumer decision-making processes under conditions of potential risk to personal safety. Potential risk was defined as the individual's subjective interpretation of the likelihood of exposure to hazard or danger and their estimation of the consequences of such exposure. The main concerns were to determine under what conditions consumers would choose a flame resistant apparel item over a non-flame resistant apparel item and to discover the amount of money consumers were willing to pay for the flame resistant (FR) characteristic in apparel. A model of the expected decision process was developed. The variables in the model were (i) internal/external (I/E) control (x₁), (ii) awareness of flame-resistant facts (x₂), (iii) perceived risk (x₃), (iv) buying goals (x₄), and (v) willingness to pay for the FR characteristic. Data used to test the hypothesized relationships among the variables were collected from 136 mothers of pre-school-age children. Path analysis interpretations revealed that the following were the most salient variables affecting the consumer's willingness to pay: (i) perceived risk of clothing-burn injuries; (ii) consumer's feelings of I/E control; and (iii) FR safety as a buying goal.     

Sources of economic growth and stagnation in Iran

There is more than a 10 percentage point difference in the economic performance of Iran in roughly the two decades before and after the Islamic revolution in 1979. This paper aims to explain the difference. A standard measure of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) calculated at the aggregate level shows that over one-third of the difference in economic performance can be explained by the change in TFP growth rates in the two periods. The question is further pursued at the manufacturing level. A time-series cross sectional analysis of the manufacturing sector confirms that TFP growth rates fell after the revolution and did not recover anywhere close to their pre revolution levels even after the Iran–Iraq war. The regression analyses show that decreasing returns to scale and mark-up pricing behavior have developed in the manufacturing sector under the Islamic Republic. A Tornqvist measure of TFP, corrected for market imperfections and non-constant returns to scale technology, is used to explain sources of productivity slowdown. The results show that manufacturing TFP increases with (i) private participation rate in economic activities and (ii) exports. Manufacturing TFP falls with (iii) increase in capital-intensity and (iv) higher entry/exit barriers.     

On time-varying predictability of emerging stock market returns

The two recent studies of Cajueiro and Tabak (2004b) and Hull and McGroarty (2014) investigate the predictability of emerging stock market returns based on the Hurst coefficient—a simple but powerful measure of long-range dependence. Unfortunately, the insights gained in these studies are limited because they (i) present conflicting evidence on the time-varying nature of the estimated Hurst coefficients and (ii) incorrectly equate random walk behaviour with market efficiency. In this note, we revisit the issue of time-varying predictability for a rich sample of 21 emerging markets in the 27-year period from 1988 to 2015. Extending the two aforementioned studies by various alternative fractal estimators of the Hurst coefficient, trend regressions and several robustness checks, our analysis reveals significant downward trends in the local Hurst coefficients of almost all markets. Specifically, we document vanishing predictability over time, which indicates that profitable emerging market investment strategies based on past returns may not continue their good performance in the future. Furthermore, we explicitly point out why a random walk is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for rationally determined security prices, and thus signs of predictability (randomness) should not be interpreted as evidence for market inefficiency (efficiency).     

The antecedents of complaint behaviour for Brazilian and French consumers of services

Using a cross‐cultural approach, this study investigates customer satisfaction after a service failure and recovery experience, considering (i) the influence of perceived justice on satisfaction; (ii) the impact of satisfaction on consumer repurchasing and complaint intentions; (iii) the moderating role of the customer cultural orientation; and (iv) the relevance of contextual variables. Based on a survey of 298 consumers from Brazil and France, the results indicated that (i) distributive and interactional justice influenced satisfaction; (ii) satisfaction was a significant predictor of repurchase intentions; (iii) satisfaction influenced third‐party, private and voice responses; and (iv) the level of the customer relationship, the severity of the failure and the responsiveness of the firm were significant contextual variables. Moreover, the individual‐level analysis suggested that only power distance cultural orientation was a significant moderator.     

Ergodicity, State Prices, and Long Bond Returns

We present an analysis of price systems in securities markets with infinitely many time periods and infinitely many uncertain states of the world. A key result is that a Markov price system (MPS) has a unique representation in terms of the returns on a known set of bonds. The result implies that securities prices are the discounted value of dividends, where discount factors are the reciprocal of the returns on a long-horizon discount bond.     

Innovation and internationalization as growth strategies: The role of technological capabilities and appropriability

Firms grow either by launching new products (innovation) or by attracting new customers (internationalization) or by using a mixed strategy. An interesting question is whether innovation and internationalization activities are complementary or substitutive. The paper discusses the connections between technological capabilities, their appropriability, innovation activities, and internationalization, and derives hypotheses from the knowledge-based view of the firm. The hypotheses are empirically analyzed using survey data from 300 Finnish firms clustered as follows: (i) domestic replicators, (ii) domestic innovators, (iii) international replicators, and (iv) international innovators. The performance of the clusters is empirically analyzed, the success criteria being actual growth rate and profitability. We conclude that a profitable firm needs to have unused technological capabilities in order to exploit economies of scope through innovation. A strong appropriability regime strengthens growth. Internationalization and innovation combined is the most advisable option when domestic markets are limited.     

Choice and self: how synchronic and diachronic identity shape choices and decision making

Research on the role of identity in choice varies widely across fields like psychology, philosophy, consumer behavior, and economics, in both the key questions addressed and the methods of investigation. Although a large literature has established how salient aspects of identity affect attitudes and norms, less is known about how beliefs concerning identity are shaped and how these beliefs affect decision making. In this review, we cover recent insights into these issues and summarize some newer, developing approaches to understanding (i) how people judge the persistence of identity, (ii) how beliefs about future changes in identity are formed and how they affect choices, (iii) the formation of beliefs about future changes in identity and how these beliefs affect decisions, and (iv) the historical and economic antecedents of identity norms and their consequences for economic behavior. We introduce a distinction between synchronic and diachronic approaches, and highlight important unresolved questions that will help these fields to more fully understand the role that identity plays in shaping choices.     

Franchising: Directions for Future Research

There have been important contributions to the literature on franchising in recent years, but many interesting questions have received less attention than they deserve. In this paper, I briefly highlight four of these: (i) the existence of master franchising and multi-unit ownership, (ii) the differences in the intensity of franchising across sectors, (iii) international franchising, and (iv) the problems surrounding the adoption of new technologies and adaptation in franchised chains. While not exhaustive, this set of topics illustrates the variety of potential franchise-related research topics.     

Pricing Via Utility Maximization and Entropy

In a financial market model with constraints on the portfolios, define the price for a claim C as the smallest real number p such that sup_π E[U(X_T^{x+p, π}?C)]≥ sup_π E[U(X_T^{x, π})], where U is the negative exponential utility function and X^{x, π} is the wealth associated with portfolio π and initial value x. We give the relations of this price with minimal entropy or fair price in the flavor of Karatzas and Kou (1996) and superreplication. Using dynamical methods, we characterize the price equation, which is a quadratic Backward SDE, and describe the optimal wealth and portfolio. Further use of Backward SDE techniques allows for easy determination of the pricing function properties.     

Search Engine Advertising Adoption and Utilization: An Empirical Investigation of Inflectional Factors

Search engine advertising (SEA) is a prominent source of revenue for search engine companies, and also a solution for businesses to promote their visibility on the web. However, there is little academic research available about the factors and the extent to which they may influence businesses’ decision to adopt SEA. Building on Theory of Planned Behavior, Technology Acceptance Model, and Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology, this study develops a context-specific model for understanding the factors that influence the decision of businesses to use SEA. Using structural equation modeling and survey data collected from 142 businesses, this research finds that the intention of businesses to use SEA is directly influenced by four factors: (i) attitude toward SEA, (ii) subjective norms, (iii) perceived control over SEA, and (iv) perceived benefits of SEA in terms of increasing web traffic, increasing sales and creating awareness. Furthermore, the research we discover six additional factors that have an indirect influence: (i) trust in search engines, (ii) perceived risk of SEA, (iii) ability to manage keywords and bids, (iv) ability to analyze and monitor outcomes, (v) advertising expertise, and (vi) using external experts.     

U.S. hegemony and international business research: Further considerations

The commentaries in this issue raise many insightful questions and considerations regarding the Livanis and Geringer (Thunderbird International Business Review, 2023, 64) study and we address a few of these. In particular, we focus on the following five areas: (i) the relationship of international business (IB) publications with the English language, (ii) resource constraints and IB research, (iii) institutional rewards and IB research, (iv) methodological considerations in evaluating IB research productivity, and (v) opportunity costs of pursuing a Ph.D. and IB research and publication.     

The performance of event study approaches using daily commodity futures returns

Simulations are conducted to assess the inferential accuracy of statistical event study approaches using daily futures returns. Methods examined include constant mean return models and several regression models—OLS, GARCH(1,1), and a GARCH(1,1) model having an error term with a Student's t distribution. The simulations address four of the most commonly analyzed agricultural futures commodities—corn, soybeans, live cattle, and hogs. In terms of the size of the test statistics, constant mean return models with short normal periods perform poorly, leading to unacceptably high rejection rates of the null hypothesis. Test statistics from constant mean return models with longer normal periods, OLS, and GARCH specifications provide rejection rates largely consistent with those of a unit normal distribution. Test statistics from all models are powerful enough to detect abnormal performance levels below those that would trigger limit locks. At small levels of abnormal performance the GARCH(1,1) model with a t distribution was consistently the most powerful model. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:533–555, 2004     

An Epistemic Analysis of (Un)Sustainable Business

Michel Foucault famously analysed orders of knowledge, ‘epistemes’, in past European ages. In this study, his analytical method is fruitfully applied to gaining a better understanding of business sustainability within and beyond the Modern episteme. After an introduction to the contextual background for the study, this article provides (i) a justification for the use of a Foucauldian epistemic analytical method, (ii) an outline of the method, (iii) an application of the method to identify four sets of questions (morality, specialisation, anthropologization and mathematicization) that are both direct derivatives of the Modern episteme and problematic for sustainable development, and finally (iv) an application of the method to consider evidence for the emergence of a new episteme. Conclusions are also provided.