市场化条件下利率风险对商业银行的影响及其防范机制

我国利率市场化改革进程缓慢,整体上呈现先外币、后本币,先贷款、后存款,先批发、后零售的特点,并在管理观念、管理体制、管理技术和管理法规等方面存在一些问题。利率市场化真正实行后将产生许多风险,其中利率风险对商业银行的存贷款、收益、利率价格和内部利率政策等产生重大影响。对此作者提出从五个方面构建我国商业银行利率风险防范机制:建立提高资本充足率,迅速增强抗风险能力的机制;建立合理确定内部资金转移价格等为内容的产品定价体系;建立高效完善的资产负债管理组织体系;建立新业务和中间业务体系;建立商业银行利率风险规避工具的应用体系等。     

INTEREST RATE RISK,MARKET VALUE,AND HEDGING FINANCIAL PORTFOLIOS

This paper derives theoretical hedge ratios for the financial portfolio that preserve its present value in the presence of interest rate risk. From a practical point of view and for any given portfolio, the existence of the financial futures market allows the investor to employ any of a number of different hedges, each of which approximately satisfies the theoretical condition. The theory indicates that wealth-preserving hedges depend on the interest elasticities (durations) of the spot assets and liabilities contained in the portfolio, portfolio leverage, and the interest elasticity (duration) of the financial instrument underlying the futures contract that is employed in constructing the hedge. Also, hedges designed to maintain net interest margin or net cash flow do not minimize exposure to interest rate risk.     

STRONG FORM EFFICIENCY OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET AND BANK POSITIONS

This paper explores the strong form efficiency of the pound sterling-U.S. dollar market by analyzing the ability of U.S. commercial banks to formulate superior expectations vis-a-vis the market in two ways. First, Stein's theory is employed to distinguish between shifts and disturbances in the exchange market equilibrium. Second, the swap transaction framework extracts U.S. commercial banks' expectations from their observed behavior. Results obtained from both approaches suggest that the observed group has better than random forecasting accuracy.     

BANK EXPOSURE TO INTEREST RATE RISK: A GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE

In 1993, the Basle Committee on Banking Supervision considered whether to incorporate interest rate risk in risk-based capital requirements for international banks. At issue was whether a bank's interest rate risk varies with the country of concern. While the effects of interest rate movements on U.S. banks are well documented, the effects on banks from other countries are not. We find that bank interest rate risk varies among countries, which supports the need to capture interest rate risk differentials in the risk-based capital requirements. We also find that non-U.S. bank values are sensitive not only to domestic interest rates, but to international interest rates as well.     

EXPECTATIONS,INTEREST RATES,AND COMMERCIAL BANK STOCKS

This study examines the effect of current and expected interest rate changes on bank equity values and attempts to reconcile the conflicting findings of previous research regarding this issue. A multiple index market model of bank security returns is specified and estimated. The results confirm the existence of an interest rate effect on bank stocks that is not explained by returns on the market portfolio. In addition, bank stock returns appear to be sensitive to an interest rate forecast error.     

构建商业银行利率风险预警体系的思路

我国的利率市场化改革源于经济体制转型与金融制度的变迁,是中国“入世”后,经济金融融入世界经济、金融一体化的必然选择．从1996年放开银行间拆借市场利率开始．到2004年放开商业银行贷款浮动利率上限,城乡信用社贷款利率浮动上限扩大到基准利率的2．3倍,我国的利率市场化稳步推进并取得实质性突破。在新的利率框架下,商业银行已经由利率管制下的被动接受者,     

商业银行二级分行利率风险管理机制探索

利率风险是客观存在的一种经济金融现象 ,具有独特的运动轨迹。商业银行利率风险运动的特点主要有不确定性、频繁性、隐蔽性、转嫁性和差异性。工商银行现行经营管理体制还存在着许多矛盾和问题 ,表现为资金定价和利率决策机制不完善 ,没有利率风险预警系统 ,缺乏有效的利率风险控制和规避工具 ,利率风险管理的人才和技术贫乏等。构筑二级分行利率风险管理机制的基本思路包括 :解放思想 ,切实解决认识障碍 ;创建利率风险识别和预警系统 ;建立利率风险防范、规避、隔离和损失抵补体系 ;建立适应利率市场化要求的资金定价与调整机制 ;加强利率风险管理的责任考核与激励等。     

利率调整与我国商业银行经营方向的变革

近几年来,中央银行先后8次降息.在降息的背后,带动着中央银行在利率市场化改革上的全面深入.降息所引导的利率市场化改革对我国传统的商业银行的经营产生了重大的影响,低利率水平下的利率市场化将直接引起储蓄存款和企业存款的下降,引起间接融资的降低,从而动摇着我国商业银行单纯依靠存贷款业务发展的生存根基.我国商业银行为迎接低利率水平下的利率市场化改革所带来的挑战,必须根据自身实际,全面调整业务经营方向;深化资金管理体制改革,按照自身的实力特点和发展定位建立存贷款业务的定价机制;大力拓展中间业务,改变单一的赢利结构;转变营销理念,以全新方式开展营销工作.