In- and out-of-the-money convertible bond calls: Signaling or price pressure?

Convertible bond calls typically cause significant reactions in equity prices. The empirical research largely finds negative and positive announcement effects for the in-the-money and the out-of-the-money calls respectively. However, this research has difficulty distinguishing between the two main theoretical explanations: the signaling effect and the price pressure effect. In this paper, we differentiate between these two effects by using a unique data set of the in- and the out-of-the-money calls in the United States during the period of 1993 to 2007. We find that the announcement effect for the in-the-money call is predominantly explained by the subsequent order imbalances; and the stock market's reaction is spread over an entire trading day, which is consistent with the price pressure effect. In contrast, the announcement effect for the out-of-the-money call is driven by the size of the called convertible bond; and the stock market's reaction is almost immediate, which is consistent with the signaling effect.     

Valuation of GNMA Mortgage-Backed Securities

GNMA mortgage-backed pass-through securities are supported by pools of amortizing, callable loans. Additionally, mortgagors often prepay their loans when the market interest rate is above the coupon rate of their loans. This paper develops a model for pricing GNMA securities and uses it to examine the impact of the amortization, call, and prepayment features on the prices, risks and expected returns of GNMA's. The amortization and prepayment features each have a positive effect on price, while the call feature has a negative impact. All three features reduce a GNMA security's interest rate risk and, consequently, its expected return.     

我国认购权证负溢价问题研究

从理论上讲,认购权证的价格应高于其内在价值,即认购权证溢价应为正。然而从实际情况来看,我国的认购权证在2007年却大量出现负溢价的情况。本文将从套利者、投资者、投机者的角度以及权证市场参与者共同存在的一些限制等方面对我国认购权证出现负溢价的问题进行解释,并给出诸如以发行美式认购权证等方法解决这一问题的政策建议。     

An empirical investigation of calls of non-convertible bonds

This paper examines call behavior of corporate issuers of non-convertible bonds. Evidence from a sample of 102 calls indicates that the market value of the called bonds is usually below the call price at the time of the announcement. The stock price reactions to call announcements are positively related to the direction of the change in leverage. When the call relaxes restrictive covenants, the firm on average pays a larger premium to call debt. The premium is a minimum estimate of the potential opportunity costs of restrictive covenants.     

CALL OPTION VALUATION FOR DISCRETE NORMAL MIXTURES

In this study a mixture call option pricing model is derived to examine the impact of non-normal underlying returns densities. Observed fat-tailed and skewed distributions are assumed to be the result of independent Gaussian processes with nonstationary parameters, modeled by discrete k-component independent normal mixtures. The mixture model provides an exact solution with intuitive appeal using weighted sums of Black-Scholes (B-S) solutions. Simulating returns densities representative of equity securities, significant mispricing by B-S is found in low-priced at- and out-of-the-money near-term options. The lower the variance and the higher the leptokurtosis and positive skewness of the underlying returns, the more pronounced is this mispricing. Values of in-the-money options and options with several weeks or more to expiration are closely approximated by B-S.     

Asymmetric risk premium in value and growth stocks

There are two competing explanations for the existence of a value premium, a rational market risk explanation, whereby value stocks are inherently more risky than growth stocks, and a market over-reaction hypothesis, where agents overstate future returns on growth stock. Using asymmetric GARCH-M models this paper tests the predictions of the two hypotheses. Specifically, examining whether returns exhibit a positive (negative) risk premium resulting from a negative (positive) shock and the relative size of any premium. The results of the paper suggest that following a shock, volatility and expected future volatility are heightened, leading to a rise in required rates of return which depresses current prices. Further, these effects are heightened for value stock over growth stock and for negative shocks over positive shocks. Thus, in support of the rational risk interpretation, with a volatility feedback explanation for predictive volatility asymmetry.     

Determinants of corporate call policy for convertible bonds

For a sample of convertible bonds issued during the period 1980 through 2002, we empirically investigate the determinants of call policy. We find that the risk of a failed call over the call notice period helps explain why firms call only after conversion value exceeds call price by a substantial safety premium. We find strong evidence that cash flow considerations and a desire to mitigate agency conflicts influence call policy. We also find evidence that the decision to issue and subsequently call a convertible bond is influenced by a desire to obtain backdoor equity financing and to finance growth options. There is no evidence, however, that firms with favorable inside information are more likely to delay calls. Finally, we find that a significant portion of calls are associated with restructuring and merger activity, and with bond rating upgrades and downgrades. In these cases, there is little if any call delay.     

Extreme downside risk and expected stock returns

We propose a measure for extreme downside risk (EDR) to investigate whether bearing such a risk is rewarded by higher expected stock returns. By constructing an EDR proxy with the left tail index in the classical generalized extreme value distribution, we document a significantly positive EDR premium in cross-section of stock returns even after controlling for market, size, value, momentum, and liquidity effects. The EDR premium is more prominent among glamor stocks and when high market returns are expected. High-EDR stocks are generally characterized by high idiosyncratic risk, large downside beta, lower coskewness and cokurtosis, and high bankruptcy risk. The EDR premium persists after these characteristics are controlled for. Although Value at Risk (VaR) plays a significant role in explaining the EDR premium, it cannot completely subsume the EDR effect.     

The Valuation Effects of Private Placements of Convertible Debt

Share price reactions to announcements of 61 private placements of convertible debt securities are investigated and a significant positive average abnormal return of 1.80% is documented. This unique result contrasts with the negative average abnormal return associated with public sales of convertible debt securities. The positive effect on common shareholders' wealth appears to be related to the relative size of the private issue and unrelated to the degree to which the convertible bond is “out-of-the-money” at issuance.     

EVIDENCE OF A RELATION BETWEEN STOCK PRICE REACTIONS AROUND CASH DIVIDEND CHANGES AND YIELDS

Here, the relation between stock price reactions to announced dividend changes and the yields of the underlying securities is examined. A significant positive (negative) relationship is detected between announcement date returns and yield for dividend increases (decreases) even after controlling for the magnitude of the dividend change. Price reactions associated with dividend increases vary directly with the change in yield and, on average, low-yielding companies do not experience abnormal returns when they increase their dividends. Implied in these results is that the information conveyed through dividend changes varies with the yield of the underlying security and the market response is a function of factors beyond the pure information effect.     

Stock reaction to dividend savings of convertible preferred calls: Free cash flow or price pressure effects?

Calls of in-the-money convertible preferred stock typically induce dividend savings for the firm, since preferred dividends exceed common stock dividends. Prior research finds that these savings are negatively related to stock returns at call announcement and argues that the market expects managers to abuse the increased free cash flow. This paper finds that dividend savings are closely related to call size, suggesting other explanations. Larger calls experience a more negative announcement reaction. Consistent with temporary liquidity effects, there is a price reversal during the conversion period, which is greater for larger calls.     

Time varying consumption covariance and dynamics of the equity premium: Evidence from the G7 countries

We examine implications of time-varying correlation and covariance between excess equity returns and consumption growth for the equity premium of the G7 countries. We find that the correlation and covariance are higher when there is a negative shock to labor income and a positive shock to returns. The combined effect is that the correlation and covariance are countercyclical and so is the equity premium. We test asset pricing models with time-varying consumption risk and find that the conditional price of risk is generally positive. These results survive several robustness checks. Our results highlight the importance of labor income for understanding dynamics of the equity premium.     

Isolating the disaster risk premium with equity options

The US equity risk premium is approximated with a mean unhedged equity return. I utilize out-of-the-money put options to obtain a hedged equity return, which allows me to quantify the disaster risk premium as the difference between the means of unhedged and hedged equity returns. I demonstrate that a substantial fraction of the U.S. equity risk premium over the period from 1996 to 2016 is attributed to disasters defined as stock price depreciations below a pre-specified strike price. Employing alternative hedging schemes increases the contribution of disasters to the equity risk premium.     

RAISING CAPITAL WITH PRIVATE PLACEMENTS OF DEBT

In this study the role of private placements of debt in the capital acquisition decision of public utilities is investigated. Whereas public offerings are sales of securities through financial intermediaries to the public-at-large, private placements are direct sales of securities by an issuing corporation to a limited number of institutional investors. In contrast to the negative stock price reactions typically found for public security sales, private placements are associated with significant positive abnormal returns in the shares of the issuing public utilities. Also, larger private placements appear to elicit a more favorable market response. Results are consistent with reduced information asymmetries and increased monitoring of the issuing firm resulting from the private placement.     

Differential shareholder wealth and volume effects surrounding private equity placements in New Zealand

Private equity placements in New Zealand exhibit a strong positive relationship between abnormal announcement returns and the price at which shares are placed. The relationship suggests that placement price conveys important information regarding firm quality and value. This is significant as the New Zealand market has different regulations governing private equity placements compared to other countries. For example, private placement purchasers in New Zealand can buy shares at substantial discounts and immediately sell on-market without disclosing these trades to the market for a period of at least 5 days. Private placements issued at a premium exhibit a permanent positive impact on firm value. In contrast, those placed at a discount experience negative announcement returns and show a significant run-down in returns following the announcement. Private placements spark a large increase in trading activity in the 5 days following an announcement and the increase is particularly strong for those placed at a discount. We also find that companies that privately place equity in New Zealand are typically low book to market, thinly traded stocks. Therefore, the immediate returns available to purchasers of discounted shares may reflect fair compensation for these risks.     

Correlation risk

Investors hold portfolios of assets with different risk-reward profiles for diversification benefits. Conditional on the volatility of assets, diversification benefits can vary over time depending on the correlation structure among asset returns. The correlation of returns between assets has varied substantially over time. To insure against future “low diversification” states, investors might demand securities that offer higher payouts in these states. If this is the case, then investors would pay a premium for securities that perform well in regimes in which the correlation is high. We empirically test this hypothesis and find that correlation carries a significantly negative price of risk, after controlling for asset volatility and other risk factors.     

The dividend month premium

We find an asset pricing anomaly whereby companies have positive abnormal returns in months when they are predicted to issue a dividend. Abnormal returns in predicted dividend months are high relative to other companies and relative to dividend-paying companies in months without a predicted dividend, making risk-based explanations unlikely. The anomaly is as large as the value premium, but less volatile. The premium is consistent with price pressure from dividend-seeking investors. Measures of liquidity and demand for dividends are associated with larger price increases in the period before the ex-day (when there is no news about the dividend) and larger reversals afterward.     

Convertible calls and corporate taxes under asymmetric information

This paper develops a signalling model of call of convertible securities (bonds or preferred stock) in the presence of corporate taxes and asymmetric information about future earnings. In equilibrium, managers with relatively unfavorable information call to force convertible holders to convert to common stock (in spite of the loss of corporate tax benefits if the convertibles are bonds), while those with relatively favorable information do not call. The model predicts that the announcement period common stock returns are more negative at the call of convertible bond than at the call of convertible preferred stock. Furthermore, we predict that when the importance of the tax deductibility of interest differs among firms, so does the stock price reaction to the announcement of convertible debt call. Specifically, the loss of equity value at the announcement decreases with the amount of non-debt tax shield that the calling firm owns, decreases with the book value of convertible debt called, and increases with corporate taxes.     

CONVERTIBLE SECURITIES: A TOLLBOX OF FLEXIBLE FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS FOR CORPORATE ISSUERS

During the 1990s, convertible and equity-linked securities emerged as a major source of financing for U.S. corporate issuers. Issuance volume grew steadily throughout the decade and the secondary market value of U.S. convertible securities now exceeds $200 billion. In this overview of the market, the authors discuss the following: (1) the growth of issuance volume in the U.S. equity-linked market; (2) the basic characteristics of convertible securities; (3) convertible debt alternatives; and (4) convertible preferred alternatives.
As a result of the proliferation of new convertible structures, corporate issuers are now able to adjust coupon/dividend, conversion premium, and call protection in order to meet their tax, accounting, rating agency, and cost-of-capital objectives. Historically, the convertible new issue market has had a broad variety of issuers, spanning all industry sectors as well as both investment grade and high yield credits. But in the last two years, the most aggressive issuers have been technology-oriented companies, including telecommunications, Internet, hardware, software, and biotechnology concerns. Such technology-related issuers, which are often rated below investment grade and unable to secure straight debt capital, are generally in heavy-spending phases and view convertible bonds as a source of inexpensive financing. At the same time, investment-grade, "old-economy" issuers have continued to use convertible securities selectively, in most cases as cheap "quasi-equity" in the context of mergers and acquisitions, or as a tax-deferred strategy for selling cross-holdings of stock.     

An Event Option Pricing Model with Scheduled and Unscheduled Announcement Effects

There is considerable evidence supporting the time-varying distribution of asset returns. There is also ample evidence that scheduled announcement events such as money supply announcements (in the case of foreign exchange), earnings announcements (in the case of stocks), and crop reports (in the case of commodities), as well as random unscheduled events, can affect the level and volatility of asset returns. This study provides an Event Model for European call options which explicitly addresses effects of these two classes of events. This specification requires estimation of more parameters, but it could provide a more accurate basis for pricing options than previous Poisson jump-diffusion models. Parametric analysis shows that the standard models under price the options relative to the Event Model. The Event Model may be particularly useful in pricing short-term deep out-of-the-money options when scheduled events are present in the market.