THE IMPACT OF SUPERVISED CREDIT PROGRAMMES ON TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE IN DEVELOPING AGRICULTURE*

Restrictions on input use frequently accompany the granting of institutional credit to farmers in developing agriculture. A general economic framework is suggested to analyze the net social benefits of such a policy. The paper discusses the potential for manipulating the policy variables to foster more rapid adoption of new agricultural technology. An empirical analysis of the impact of a supervised credit programme in Guatemala on farm performance and farmer decision-making is presented.     

CHANGES IN THE TERMS OF TRADE FOR AGRICULTURE: NEW PLATEAU OR NEW PRECIPICE*

This paper looks at the recent boom in agricultural commodity prices to see to what extent the changes these prices reflect are of a structural rather than short term nature. It concludes that they are essentially short term: a lagged supply response to the agricultural depression of 1970 and 1971; the coincidence of normal commodity cycles for several commodities; an unusual coincidence of adverse seasonal conditions in major producing areas, particularly the U.S.S.R.; and an unprecedented upswing in world economic activity. Nevertheless, there are a number of factors which suggest that, other than possibly in short term disequilibrium situations, agricultural commodity prices will not decline to previous levels: worldwide inflation; redirection in world agricultural support policies; and the energy crisis. Many of these factors win also influence prices of manufactured goods and hence the terms of trade. After considering the problems of world food supplies and continued growth in world population, the paper suggests that there is little evidence of a major structural change in the market for agricultural commodities. Rather, it points to a return to the previous situation where there is a slight tendency for the terms of trade to move against agriculture.     

THE IMPACT OF TAXATION ON AGRICULTURE

This paper considers the impact of taxation on British agriculture. Its purpose is to provoke thought into an important aspect of agricultural adjustment which has been largely overlooked, with consequential mis-direction of thought and effort. consideratio is restricted to the limited number of large farmers who are responsible for the major proportion of production. It is shown that the tax structure inhibits the acquisition and maintenance of personal wealth at the ever-increasing levels required by modern farming methods and conditions. With the problem accentuated by inflation, there is no solution other than to accept the inevitability of corporation farming.     

精确农业在我国的推广应用分析

介绍了精确农业的概念及其技术系统;分析了我国发展精确农业的必要性和可行性;针对我国农业现状,提出在我国不同区域,发展不同阶段的精确农业的构想。     

THE MEASUREMENT OF MANAGERIAL EFFICIENCY IN AGRICULTURE*

This paper is an outline only of a Ph.D. thesis submitted to the University of Nottingham. The paper proposes a socio-economic model of farm production with special emphasis placed on the role of management: formulates an econometric model, to represent the socio-economic model, in which the degree of managerial efficiency appears as a variable, and suggests means of interpretation of the econometric model to aid farm planning at the individual farm level.     

INDUSTRIAL ORGANISATION FOUNDATIONS OF TRADE POLICY MODELLING*

General equilibrium models of Canada/US free trade have produced a wide range of predictions of the impact on the Canadian economy. This paper analyses the models from an 'industrial organisation' perspective, focusing on differences in assumptions about market elasticities and pricing behaviour. The approach succeeds in encompassing the range of predictions from the models. The results have implications for agricultural policy modelling.     

THE ECONOMIC SURPLUS OF AGRICULTURE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The economic surplus of an industry is defined as the difference between its real product, and the real income accruing to it. The surplus from U.K. agriculture measured at 1964/65–66/67 prices is estimated to have risen by about 20 million per year in recent years. The absorption of this surplus by other sectors is identified and an approximate indication is given of the equivalent surpluses and deficits of other industry groups. The economic surplus from agriculture is transferred principally through changes in relative prices, the necessity of which tends to create an unavoidable minimum rate of inflation. There is an international equivalent of these transfers of real income through price changes, but without the institutional constraints on the market which in the domestic economy preserve some measure of equity in the distribution of income.     

THE PATTERN OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN FARM MACHINERY*

This paper is a detailed comparison of the actual 1967 world trade patterns in tractors, harvesting machinery, and cultivating machinery and the ideal least-cost trade patterns in these three commodities. This comparison gives a measure of the opportunity costs the world pays for having the actual trade patterns instead of the least-cost trade patterns. It also helps one identify the production centres that are best located to serve world demands. The model used enables one to measure the way in which customs duties influence the cost advantages of different production centres. It also measures the significance of transportation costs as a natural barrier protecting the domestic farm machinery industry in different countries. The year 1967 was selected for study because the Canadian Royal Commission on Farm Machinery provided some cost data relevant for that time period. Cet article comprend une comparaison détaitée des caractéristiques réels du commerce mondial (en 1967) en tracteurs el machines agricoles avec les caractéristiques idéales de commerce au moindre coût pour ces mêmes produits. Cette comparaison donne une mesure des coûts d'opportunité que le monde paie pour avoir les caractéristiques réel les au lieu des caractéristiques de commerce au moindre coût. Ceci nous aide également à identifier les centres de production qui sont le mieux placer pour servier la demande mondiale. Ce modèle nous permet de mesurer dans quelle manière les tarifs douaniers influencent les avantages, en matière de coût, de differents centres de production. 11 nous permet également de mesurer la signification des coûts de transport comme obstacle natural protectant I'industrie de machines agricoles dans different pays. Nous avons choisi pour notre étude l'annié 1967 parce que la Commission Royale D'Enquête Relative Aux Machine Agricoles a mis à notre disposition des données concernant les coûts se rapportant à ladite période.     

MARKET DISTORTIONS IN BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE: AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT POLICY ON THE BEEF AND DAIRY SECTORS

Intervention in the beef and dairy sectors has been the core of Brazilian agricultural policy. An econometric model of these sectors is used as a tool with which to measure the consequences of government-induced market distortions on prices, production, consumption and external trade. It is argued that large economic losses and a less egalitarian distribution of income have been the results of government policy to date.     

RETIREMENT POLICY IN FRENCH AGRICULTURE

A supplementary retirement grant (I. V.D.) has been the most important of a range of measures introduced since 1962 as a solution to social and structural problems in French agriculture. Although one-third of the country's agricultural area has been transferred through the scheme, there has been no revolutionary change in farm sizes. The restructuring required by the policy has been relatively slight and the economic attractions of the retirement grant have declined, particularly since the early 1970's. Problems have also arisen from the uneven spatial adoption of the pension, from internal contradictions within the scheme and from the lack of co-ordination with other aspects of government support for agriculture and regional development policy.