全球产业布局调整背景下中国制造业外迁问题研究

本文通过构建中美多区域投入产出模型,从制造业的三个技术类别、两个发展阶段以及三个影响渠道定量测算了制造业外迁对中国GDP和产业结构的影响。研究发现:(1)中国对美出口以高技术产品为主,高技术制造业受美制约较大,需要重点关注;(2)制造业外迁通过直接效应、关联效应和溢出效应三个渠道产生影响,短期内直接效应是主要影响渠道,而长期内溢出效应是造成部门间差异的主要因素;(3)短期内低技术制造业外迁对国内GDP的影响程度最大,长期内中高技术制造业的影响将超过低技术制造业,而且中高技术制造业外迁更加不利于国内产业结构升级。为减轻产业外迁的冲击,本文建议应对不同技术类别的制造业采取差异化政策,特别要注重强化中高技术制造业在产业链上的主导性与不可替代性。     

中美制造业参与全球价值链分工程度与地位分析——兼论中美贸易摩擦对中国价值链分工的影响

随着全球经济进入以生产过程分节化和中间品贸易为主要特征的全球价值链时代,制造业正在成为一些大国参与全球产业分工、争夺产业链、价值链高端的角力场。本文对2000-2014年中美两国制造业行业参与全球价值链(GVC)分工程度及分工地位进行对比分析,发现中国制造业参与GVC分工地位指数总体小于美国同期值,美国制造业在GVC分工中处于相对上游环节,这与中国制造业后向参与GVC分工程度较高相一致。与美国相比,中国在全球价值链分工中不具竞争优势,中美贸易摩擦对双方GVC分工都有着不同程度的影响。中国需加快受制产业的自主创新步伐,积极推进出口市场多元化,重点加强与“一带一路”沿线国家的合作。     

增加值贸易视角下中国比较优势动态演变研究

利用WIOD数据库及KWW分解框架对1995~2011年中国总出口额进行分解,得到35个部门出口增加值。在此基础上,从两种统计方式对比角度,测算分析了中国总体及不同行业的增加值比较优势(VRCA)与贸易总额比较优势(TRCA),同时与美国进行对比。研究结果表明,在增加值贸易统计方式下,中国总体对外贸易表现为比较劣势,制造业部门VRCA较为明显但长期呈下降趋势,服务业VRCA呈上升趋势,1995~2011年间部分部门的比较优势出现逆转。相对于VRCA,TRCA对中国总体对外贸易真实比较优势高估了约12.94%,制造业部门的比较优势高估程度更大;从行业分类来看,中国低技术制造业及劳动密集型服务业的比较优势更为显著。从中美对比来看,美国总体VRCA与中国水平相当,但其优势部门集中于中高技术制造业与知识密集型服务业;总额统计方式低估了美国总体尤其是服务业部门的真实比较优势。     

Branch plant location and the product cycle in computer manufacturing

This paper examines the implications of changes in product and process technology in the computer industry for the regional location pattern of production facilities. Emphasis is placed on the different locational needs of research and development activities as opposed to volume production of components. Using establishment data, the existing pattern of location is analyzed. A location model for branch plants is estimated across SMSAs; the results show that SMSA size and wage rates are repelling forces for branches. Agglomeration factors, educational level, and the supply of engineers, as well as the distance to headquarters, are positive influences on location.Manufacturing employment in the United States has grown faster outside than inside the traditional manufacturing belt for decades (Carlino 1984); this trend has accelerated in recent years. Causes of this redistribution may include surplus farm labor in the South (Cogan 1982), an attractive climate in the West, and unionization and high taxes in the North. Changes in product and process technology have also affected the location of some industries. This paper attempts to show how technology and the product life cycle influence the location of computer manufacturing.     

美国制造业回流政策对我国出口贸易的影响

2008年金融危机爆发后,美国政府意识到实体经济的重要性,开始引导制造业回流,即鼓励美国的制造业企业将其投资和生产由国外向国内转移。在此情况下,美国制造业回流政策与我国正处于转型升级关键阶段的产业存在较强的竞争关系,本文具体分析美国制造业回流政策对我国出口贸易的影响机制,即通过挤占中低端制造业市场份额、限制高端制造业发展空间、改变中国出口贸易产品结构对我国出口贸易产生影响,并选取2003—2018年的相关数据进行检验并分析得出:无论短期内还是从长期来看,美国制造业回流政策对出口贸易产生了较大的负面影响,我国需要对此情况做出积极的应对。     

对中美双边贸易利益结构的测算与分析——基于WWZ方法的测算与实证研究

随着全球价值链分工与贸易的发展，在增加值视角下重新测算与分析中美双边贸易的利益结构，对解释2018年中美贸易摩擦具有重要意义。文章应用双边/产业层面的贸易增加值核算方法，从前向生产联系和后向生产联系两个角度对中美双边贸易利益结构进行国家层面和产业层面的研究，并对中国增加值出口的影响因素进行实证检验。主要结论有：增加值视角下的中美贸易顺差严重缩水，美方发布的贸易逆差数据严重失真；中国在全球价值链中的位置落后于美国，导致贸易顺差在中国，但结构性收益在美国；中国服务业在中美贸易中的获利能力远不及制造业，2000—2014年中国主要的顺差产业未发生较大变化；参与全球价值链对我国制造业和非制造业增加值出口的影响不同，吸引外资对中国产业增加值出口具有显著的正向促进作用。     

中国出口市场与世界进口市场的匹配性——以制造业为例

在世界经济复苏乏力、中国出口贸易增速放缓的背景下,研究中国出口市场结构与世界进口市场结构之间的匹配性具有重要的理论及现实意义。以制造业为例,在将其细分为劳动密集型、资本密集型及技术密集型的基础上,通过构建斯皮尔曼等级相关系数、收益性结构变动指数、劳伦斯指数等指标体系,对中国出口市场与世界进口市场的匹配程度和变动方向及波动幅度进行了实证研究,并与美国和日本进行比较分析,以期为中国制造业出口市场结构的优化升级提供参考。     

The Determinants of Firm Exit in Japanese Manufacturing Industries

This paper presents new evidence on the determinants of firm exits that occurred in Japanese manufacturing industries over the period 1981--1989. Gross-number measure is used for exits. Many structural factors have exerted a definite influence on the extent of exit; across industries, capital intensity and subcontracting relationships have an exit-promoting effect, while profits, industry growth, concentration, and R&D opportunity have a negative relationship with exit. In addition, the minimum efficient size has an inverted-U-shaped relationship. However, export opportunity has only a marginal effect. These results are likely to reflect exits of small business.     

中美贸易摩擦的结构效应分析

本文主要利用贸易一般均衡模型反事实模拟量化分析中美可能的全面贸易摩擦对两国出口结构和产业结构的影响。结果表明:中美传统出口优势行业在中美贸易摩擦中受到的负面冲击比较大,中国出口集中度下降,而美国的变化不大;中美全面贸易摩擦将会导致中国制造业的产出份额减少,而初级产业和服务业产出份额增加;美国初级产业的产出份额减少,制造业和服务业的产出份额增加;受关税冲击较为严重的制造业产出份额的减少会导致相关联的生产性服务业产出份额减少。未来中国要增强战略定力和战略自信,积极利用国际规则应对国际贸易摩擦;同时,从产业链、供应链以及创新等方面进一步深化供给侧改革,促进产业结构优化升级。     

Manufacturing entrepreneurs: An empirical study of the correlates of employment growth in the Tulsa MSA and rural East Texas

Manufacturing firms and firms totally dependent on manufacturing provide more than 50% of the jobs in the United States and other industrialized nations. In spite of the belief that the United States has become an “information economy,” it has recently been recognized by researchers, politicians and industry experts that the loss of America's leadership position in manufacturing threatens the American industrial position. In addition, small firms provided most of the job growth in the decade of the 80s and the most innovation and new products.The impact of these factors indicates the importance of determining what it takes to be successful as a manufacturing entrepreneur. Beyond the importance to the national economy of understanding the success-related factors in manufacturing entrepreneurship, several stakeholder categories have a vested interest in this information as well. Job creation, job growth and economic development become major agenda items in the 1992 presidential campaign. Also, investors would like to have a model of small firm growth on which to base their investments in start-up firms. Finally, political units are looking for mechanisms to create much-needed new jobs to provide tax revenue.The purpose of this study was to: (1) determine the relationship between eight literature-based predictor variables and employment growth in entrepreneurial manufacturing firms and (2) attempt to develop a meaningful linear model, incorporating as many significant variables as possible from the original eight that would explain variance in firm performance.The focus of this study was 327 manufacturing entrepreneurs located in the Tulsa Metropolitan Statistical Area and 13 contiguous counties in East Texas. Manufacturing entrepreneurs were defined as the founders of their firms. The firms included in the study were all less than ten years old, independent (not a division of some other firm) and had primary SIC codes between 2000 and 3999. Usable responses to a mail survey were 103, a 31.5% response rate.Results of this study suggest that age (of the entrepreneur) at founding, entrepreneurial management experience, industry experience and environmental scanning practices are significantly correlated with firm performance as measured by employment growth.     

Employment generation by small producers in the Canadian manufacturing sector

This paper uses job turnover data to compare how job creation, job destruction and net job change differ for small and large establishments in the Canadian manufacturing sector. It uses several different techniques to correct for the regression-to-the-mean problem that, it has been suggested, might incorrectly lead to the conclusion that small establishments create a disproportionate number of new jobs. It finds that net job creation for smaller establishments is greater than that of large establishments after such changes are made. The paper also compares the importance of small and large establishments in the manufacturing sectors of Canada and the United States. The Canadian manufacturing sector is shown to have both a larger proportion of employment in smaller establishments but also to have a small establishment sector that is growing in importance relative to that of the United States.     

美国制造业重振与中国的应对策略

祸起于虚拟经济的2008年金融海啸给美国实体经济带来毁灭性的破坏，出于全球经济格局衍变和解决国内现实问题的需要，美国制定和实施了一系列重振制造业的政策，并且取得了较好的效果。我国应在借鉴主要发达国家应对美国重振制造业的经验的基础上，结合本国的实际情况从制造业规划制定、转变经济发展方式、人才培育、税收和融资、竞争方向、国际规则利用等方面采取措施积极应对。     

广东省制造业区域集聚研究

本文利用2000～2010年广东省21个市30个制造业子行业的数据对广东省制造业区域聚集情况进行研究,得出以下结论：第一,广东省制造业的大部分行业都集聚在珠三角地区;第二,广东省新兴制造业和潜力制造业的行业集聚程度对区域经济增长有显著促进作用,而传统行业的集聚程度对广东省区域经济增长有显著负向影响,即广东省传统行业存在着过度集聚的现象;第三,广东省制造业集聚度对经济增长促进作用最大的是仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业、通信设备计算机及其他电子设备制造业等新兴潜力行业,而制造业集聚度对经济增长负面影响最大的是非金属矿物制品业这个传统行业;第四,珠三角一带主要以回归系数较高的电子通信设备、电气机械和化学原料等新兴工业为主,而广东省其他地区主要以回归系数较低的传统制造业为主。基于上述结论,广东省在发展制造业方面应实行区域差别发展战略。     

技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口的影响研究——基于中美贸易引力模型的实证分析

技术性贸易壁垒与出口之间的关系一直都是学术界关注的重点,但目前学术界对二者之间的具体影响机制尚未形成统一认知。利用2001年~2016年中国电子行业对美国出口额的时间序列数据,通过理论推导与拓展贸易引力模型,研究了美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口的影响。结果表明:实行传统关税壁垒,美国会比中国损失更多的出口利益,从而使得美国放弃关税壁垒而选择技术性贸易壁垒;技术性贸易壁垒对出口呈现正"U"型影响。研究结果还显示:美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国电子行业出口呈倒"U"型影响,这是因为美国技术性贸易壁垒强度会因中国技术创新数量与出口的增加而产生"壁垒强度突变";同时,美国技术性贸易壁垒对中国技术创新数量呈正"U"型影响。根据研究结论,提出了相关政策建议。     

中美经贸摩擦背景下维系中美科创合作关系的对策建议

自2018年以来,持续升级的中美经贸摩擦给中美科创合作带来了严重冲击。本文首先从当前中美科创合作形势出发,全面总结了当前中美科创合作面临的直接冲击。其次通过剖析中美两国在未来大国竞争格局下的战略利益,分析了两国科创产业的长期合作趋势。最后,本文提出了中国在当前形势下维系中美科创合作关系的可行性对策建议,以期为中国制定对美科技、经济和外交等方面的竞合战略提供有益的借鉴和参考。     

发达国家催化优先领域突破的创新平台建设经验及启示

近年来,发达国家为应对经济全球化的不确定性,纷纷推出了“再工业化”战略,其本质是通过国家行动重新打造以新兴产业为牵引的高价值制造业战略,核心是通过政府、企业、大学、科研机构和社会团体合力打造国家级创新平台,推动本国优先领域先进技术迅速商业化。本文总结了美国、德国、英国、法国、日本、韩国等发达国家在推进本国先进制造业前沿技术成果转化与应用推广方面搭建的创新平台的建设经验,以期为我国建设未来创新平台提供借鉴。     

The Effects of Globalisation on the US Labour Mark'et: Service Sectors Considered

How has globalisation affected employment and wages in the United States? Existing studies largely ignore the intersector labour movement between the manufacturing and service sectors by focusing only on the intrasector movement within the manufacturing sector. However, by decomposing the aggregate labour demand in the United States, we find that the intersector movement is more substantial than intrasector movement. Motivated by the decomposition results, this study presents a three‐sector model that includes a manufacturing sector and two service sectors at varying skill intensities. The model shows that offshoring might translate into smaller‐than‐expected wage changes because of the intersector labour movement. In line with the theoretical predictions, two notable empirical results are presented. First, an occupation's exposure to offshoring has non‐significant, albeit negative, effects on wages. Second, the more an occupation is exposed to offshoring, the lower its employment in the manufacturing sector as a share of its total employment. Furthermore, these effects are larger for more routine occupations or those requiring less education.     

美日物流法律制度比较及对我国的启示

美国和日本拥有世界上最发达的物流业,他们的物流法律制度各有特点。通过两国物流法律制度的比较可以为刚刚起步的我国物流法律制度提供经验和发展方向。本文总结美日两国物流法律制度的特点并从中得到一些启示。     

从出口数据看福建省玩具产业的近年发展情况

福建玩具产业外延不断扩展,近年来的出口金额、数量和产品单价不断增长,出口市场数量逐年增加,在欧盟、美国、东盟、日本和英国等重点市场的出口数据及其在该市场的玩具进口总额中所占份额持续走高,充分说明福建省玩具产业近年来在寻求发展和寻求突破中取得了较好的成效。