The IMF and the countries of Eastern Europe

The countries of Eastern Europe need to raise considerable finance not only in order to improve their balances of payments but also to adjust the structure of their economies over the long term to changed internal and external conditions. The adjustment measures require capital, but the Eastern European countries have only limited scope to broaden their own capital base. What actual or potential significance does the international Monetary Fund have for overcoming the difficulties of the CMEA countries in question?     

The role of the IMF and the World Bank in the former Eastern Bloc countries

Although the main responsibility for carrying out economic reforms in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe lies with these countries themselves, the transformation of the Soviet-style economic system into a market economy must be made easier by support from abroad. In this the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank will play an important part.     

我国进口贸易与经济增长的互动关系研究

以国家统计局发布的1952-2001年度统计数据为基础,实证分析了我国进口贸易与经济增长之间的互动关系。结果表明:(1)我国进口贸易与经济增长之间存在着互为因果关系;(2)1952-2001年,我国经济增长对进口贸易有较强的促进作用,每增加1个单位GDP将增加0.16个单位进口量。(3)1952-2001年,我国进口贸易对经济增长具有很强的促进作用,每增加1个单位的进口量会相应地增加5.44个单位的GDP。     

ROK, China Strive for Mutual Economic and Trade Benefits

The President of the Republic of Korea （ROK） Roh Moo-hyun announced that Korea fully recognized China＇s market economy status. Roh＇s announcement was made during a joint press conference with Chinese President Hu Jintao, who was on a state visit to ROK in November. China is now the largest trading partnet of ROK, with trade volume between the two countries expected to reach 100 billion US dollars this year. The two leaders agreed that the bilateral trade volume should be doubled to 200 billion US dollars by 2012. A significant milestone having been reached between the two countries, what kind of impact can be expected to follow from the events in regards to the bilateral economic and trade relations between China and ROK？ With such questions in mind, China＇s Foreign Trade reporters interviewed Kim Ha-joong, Ambassador of ROK to China.     

ROK, China Strive for Mutual Economic and Trade Benefits

The President of the Republic of Korea(ROK) Roh Moo-hyun announced that Korea fully recognized China‘s market economy status. Roh‘s announcement was made during a joint press conference with Chinese President Hu Jintao, who was on a state visit to ROK in November. 　　China is now the largest trading partner of ROK, with trade volume between the two countries expected to reach 100 billion US dollars this year. 　　……     

Pricing IMF liquidity provision: The value of the IMF liquidity commitment

This paper presents a market-based framework for pricing the International Monetary Fund's commitment to provide liquidity assistance, accounting for the credit risk and the insurance benefit involved in such operations. It is based on the isomorphic correspondence between Fund liquidity and common stock put options. The illustrative numerical examples show that the value of this liquidity guarantee could range between several and three hundreds basis points depending on the borrower's creditworthiness, the volatility of capital flows to the borrowing country, and the amount of funds potentially needed to meet the borrower's external obligations.     

四川经济结构转型与金融支持研究

本文从金融视角分析了四川地区经济结构现状、特点、问题,及制约经济结构转型中的金融因素。由于四川金融发展相对滞后,金融资源价格没有充分反映经济信息,资源配置效率低下等导致资金严重外流。因此,建议四川建立以政策性金融为导向,商业性金融并举的金融模式,以实现金融支持四川经济结构的成功转型。     

The debt crisis and IMF policy

The discussions anticipating the annual joint meeting of the IMF and the World Bank in Berlin this autumn have again drawn the increased attention of a broader public to the debt problems of the developing countries. Alternative groups are planning to hold an anti-congress, in which especially the role of the IMF and the World Bank in this connection are to be subjected to a critical examination. The following article describe the basic points of criticism.     

The Asian Crisis, the IMF and Dr Mahathir

While in the literature concerning the Asian crisis extensive coverage has been given to the course of events in the countries implementing IMF-supported programmes, scant attention has been paid to other countries that also suffered from the crisis. Potential alternatives to the IMF way of handling the crisis are thus in danger of being neglected. The project on which this paper is based was funded by the Indo-Dutch Program on Alternatives in Development (IDPAD) in collaboration with the Indian Council of Social Science Research (ICSSR).     

The Power of Two: Inclusive Growth and the IMF

For decades, mainstream economics has focused on increasing economic growth and accelerating cross-country convergence, while ignoring distributional concerns. However, the consensus has begun to shift, and recent IMF research has paid increased attention to inclusive growth and the detrimental macroeconomic effects of inequality. The IMF also recognises the threat posed by climate change and has begun to dedicate research to exploring ways to decouple carbon emissions from economic growth.     

The feasibility of currency union in Gulf Cooperation Council countries: A business cycle synchronisation view

This paper study the feasibility of a monetary union among Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, by measuring the evolution of economic integration among them. Considering the critical role of crisis and shocks in the integration process within the region, we determine whether GCC countries are characterised by a common business cycle. We suggest a different empirical approach that, unlike previous studies, allows one to endogenously detect structural changes in the comovement process between outputs. We apply a new measure for this region that is based on the time‐varying coherence function. Such a measure not only detects comovement dynamics but also distinguishes these dynamics in terms of short‐ and long‐term cycles. Additionally, we can test whether certain countries tend to be more synchronised. The main finding of this study is that not all GCC countries share a common short‐term business cycle. However, in the long term, all country‐pairs indicate a medium‐level synchronisation in the most recent subperiods. The new role of the United Arab Emirates’ regional trade platform allows it to strengthen long‐term business cycle comovement, thus differentiating it from other GCC country‐pairs that have shown a decline in the last two subperiods.     

The Prospects for the U.S. Economy and Its Major Issues: A View from the Council of Economic Advisers

The U.S. economy is transitioning from a rescue phase to a recovery phase. It is easy to forget the depth of the crisis that required the rescue and easy to be impatient about the recovery. So far, the recovery has the hallmarks of a traditional recovery led by exports, fixed investment, and innovation. Issues of the federal deficit and debt loom over long-term prospects, however. Nonetheless, it should be kept in mind that the deficits are largely a product of the deep and prolonged economic slump and would diminish as a share of GDP as the economy grows stronger. This does not, however, mitigate the need to take serious action on reducing the structural deficit in a way that has bipartisan support and is smart in preserving the conditions for economic growth and fairness. Other concerns, such as oil prices, financial conditions in Europe, and the housing market must continue to be monitored and addressed.     

美国的制度霸权与国际经济机制——以国际货币基金组织为例

后冷战时代,美国逐渐从传统的权势霸权转向制度霸权.国际货币基金组织(IMF)作为掌管国际金融体系的重要国际经济机制,被纳入美国的制度霸权战略中.美国通过或正式或隐性的权力对IMF进行渗透,使之成为美国维持和巩固霸权地位的有力工具.     

IMF conditionality: The wrong party pays the bill

Countries in acute payments difficulties generally seek the support of the International Monetary Fund. IMF credits are granted subject to compliance with economic conditions that have repeatedly given cause for criticism. The two articles that follow, by Jörn Altmann and Joachim Betz, examine the Fund’s policy of conditionality.     

Over‐optimism and the IMF

One way of assessing the impact of IMF programmes is to see whether performance and policy targets are achieved. However, does a failure to hit targets mean that the programmes have been unsuccessful, or could it be that targets have been too ambitious? This paper analyses political economy factors impinging on governments and on the IMF that may lead to serial over‐optimism. It goes on to examine the empirical evidence that is consistent with over‐optimism. Having considered whether over‐optimism is a cause for concern, and concluded that it is, the paper considers reforms that would allow realism to replace it. By eliminating over‐optimism it is argued that the psychology of failure surrounding IMF programmes could be significantly reduced or even broken.