贸易自由化与中国的农业、贫困和公平

本项研究的目标是分析贸易自由化对中国农业及不同地区农民的农业生产(尤其是贫困农民)的影响，重点计论了中国贸易自由化进程和市场干预的变化与内容。利用CAP-SiM模型分析表明，贸易自由化对中国农业的总体影响利大于弊，但是对贫困农户的不利影响要大得多，贸易自由化可能有助于一些地区缓解贫困，但会恶化另一些地区的收入分配，同时会加剧地区内部农户的收入不均现象。     

中国贸易自由化及其对粮食安全的影响——一个基于中国农业CGE模型的应用分析

本文应用中国农业CGE模型,就中国在WTO“后过渡期”进一步的贸易自由化对经济和粮食安全的影响进行了模拟和分析。基本的结论是:中国的贸易自由化会对粮食安全产生一定的冲击,引致粮食自给率下降;但这种影响要在现实中显形化需要一定的条件。     

制度距离对中国纸和纸板出口贸易效率和潜力的影响

首先依据2000—2018年中国纸和纸板出口贸易数据分析中国对RCEP成员纸和纸板的出口贸易特征;然后基于美国遗产基金会公布的经济自由度指数引入制度距离构建中国纸和纸板出口贸易的随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型,分析中国对RCEP成员纸和纸板的出口效率和出口潜力提升空间。结果表明:不同类别的制度距离对中国对RCEP成员纸和纸板出口贸易效率影响程度不同:在产权、税收负担、商业自由化、贸易自由化和投资自由化方面的制度距离具有显著的正面影响;在货币自由化上的制度距离具有显著的负面影响;中国对RCEP成员纸和纸板出口贸易效率整体较高,内部差异明显,未来仍有发展潜力空间。     

全脂奶粉贸易自由化的空间均衡分析

随着奶制品贸易自由化进程的加快,中国全脂奶粉进口量大幅增加,国内产业发展面l晦越来越严峻的挑战。本文利用空间均衡模型模拟了在贸易自由化进程中降低关税对各地区全脂奶粉供给、需求、贸易以及均衡骱格的影响。本文发现,建立自由贸易区、取消中国与澳大利亚和新西兰之间全脂奶粉的关税会嘭响中国全脂奶粉产业的发展;而推进多边贸易谈判、实现奶制品贸易自由化,不但有利于中国全脂奶粉的生产,而目会促进世界奶业的发展。本文认为,在奶制品贸易自由化进程中应更为谨映地开展自由贸易区谈判,积极推动多边贸易谈判。     

贸易自由化对中国食物消费不平等的影响与路径研究——基于多元多重中介效应模型的检验

随着经济发展,人们生活水平不断提高,中国人均食物消费量不断提高,但食物消费不平等问题依然比较突出.本文基于贸易自由化的角度,引入价格和收入两个中介变量,利用中国家庭收入项目调查数据及其他相关数据,通过多元多重中介效应模型,从理论和实证上分析了贸易自由化对中国食物消费不平等的影响.研究发现,贸易自由化不仅可通过提高中国居...     

中国区域饲料粮供求和地区间贸易

随着居民收入水平的提高和农产品贸易自由化程度的加深，饲料粮短缺将成为中国面临的一个突出问题。这也是为什么在过去10多年里学术界和政府部门对中国饲料粮市场研究予以关注的主要原因。但是对中国区域饲料粮市场的研究远未得到应有的关注。本文构建了一个中国区域饲料粮市场的非线性空间均衡模型，模拟了贸易自由化、饲料粮生产技术进步、畜牧业技术进步、收入增长和畜产品出口变化对区域饲料粮市场生产、消费和流通的影响。     

卷首语

虽然WTO多哈回合谈判暂时终止，但人们正在努力，希望重新启动这一轮谈判。在多哈回合农产品贸易谈判中，关税减让是其重要内容之一。周曙东等首先利用GTAP模型模拟了关税削减方式、敏感性农产品设定以及关税水分设置不同的7种方案的政策效果，包括对全球贸易的影响、对中国农产品贸易的影响、对中国农业生产的影响；然后将这些方案的数量结果再代入CGE模型，模拟它们对中国GDP、国内居民收入及贸易平衡等的作用；最终得出结论：中国在多哈回合农产品关税减让谈判中的最优方案是限制最高关税的关税封顶方案，备选方案是限制敏感性农产…     

中国农业贸易自由化的环境效应分析

本文构建了农业贸易自由化环境效应的联立方程模型,并利用中国1990—2010年数据对该模型进行估计。结果表明,化肥和农药使用量的三个经济因素的影响都是显著的,其中规模效应和结构效应的影响显著为正,表明农业贸易自由化带来的生产规模的扩大和农业生产结构的调整增加了化肥和农药的使用量;技术效应的影响显著为负,表明农业贸易自由化带来的技术进步有利于减少化肥和农药的使用量,从而减轻环境污染程度;其总体效应为正,表明农业贸易自由化将有利于减少化肥和农药的使用量,对环境产生积极的影响。     

WTO农业谈判与中国农业政策实践

农业政策是多哈回合的核心谈判议题之一。农业谈判结果对于多边贸易体制的稳定、经济全球化的进程、贸易自由化等给各成员国带来的福利具有极其重要的意义。作为世界上最大的发展中国家,中国农业政策所受到的影响更是引人注目。     

贸易自由化对贫困农户劳动力非农就业的影响

中国正在加速推进以加入世界贸易组织为标志的农产品贸易自由化进程，贫困人口福利状况备受关注。本文从要素市场的角度研究贸易自由化影响就业的内在机制，结合现有实证文献，考察贸易自由化可能给贫困人口带来的影响。本文研究表明贫困人口在劳动力市场面临较大的就业压力，很难获益于贸易自由化。考虑到农产品市场竞争越来越激烈而贫困农户严重依赖农业收入(尤其是种植业收入)的事实，这就要求政府在未来扶贫工作中需要采取更加直接的措施去帮助极有可能更加恶化的贫困农户。     

Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a Multi-sector World Model

Impacts of agricultural and nonagricultural trade liberalization on agriculture are assessed in a multi-commodity, multi-country framework. By modeling simultaneously all goods sectors of the economy, we evaluate the importance of: (a) relative price changes between sectors, and (b) income and exchange-rate adjustments that follow trade liberalization in a world of floating rates. Specifically, we compare two cases using a static world policy simulation (SWOPSIM) model: agricultural multilateral liberalization and complete multilateral liberalization with floating exchange rates for all countries/regions. In both cases agricultural commodity prices tend to increase, an effect which is more pronounced when currency values adjust. The developing countries, in particular Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, have the most significant advances in agricultural and total production when exchange rates vary. Moreover, the gains from international trade are extended to all countries/regions explicitly specified in the model.     

Canada's Agricultural Trade Policy: Choices and Challenges

As a small open economy, Canada has a considerable interest in the achievement of substantive trade liberalization for agriculture in a multilateral context. Despite the advantages of a multi lateral approach to international trade rules, there are clear economic benefits for small countries like Canada from pursuing unilateral trade liberalization. In the context of Canadian agricultural policy this would require a considerable adjustment to the high levels of protection afforded Canada's supply-managed sectors. The benefits of an open economy are often not reflected in public discussions or in the language of trade negotiations. Instead these tend to reflect a focus on rent-seeking by special interest groups. This misrepresents the concessions of reduced trade barriers as costs, rather than recognizing them as benefits. There is a challenge for agricultural and applied economists to spell out the benefits of an open economy more clearly. A related useful focus of research is to explore the conditions and the nature of compensation to producer groups that would encourage rapid unilateral trade liberalization.     

Implications of agricultural trade liberalization for the developing countries

The developing countries as a group could expect to experience only small welfare gains if they chose not to actively participate in agricultural trade liberalization and relied solely on the benefits of partial liberalization in the OECD countries. Participation along the lines of the Dunkel package, with the developing countries reducing positive assistance by less than the developed countries, would yield gains of the order of US $20 billion. More comprehensive participation in trade liberalization involving reductions of both positive and negative protection would almost triple these welfare gains. While some developing countries do not gain from trade liberalization even with full participation, the number of such countries and the magnitude of their losses are greatly reduced.     

Assessing agricultural trade policies options with the European Union: a Brazilian perspective

Brazil has shown interest in agricultural trade negotiations at bilateral, regional, and multilateral levels. This study addresses several important negotiations, using the agricultural sector model CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact Analysis), to analyze liberalization scenarios between the European Union and the Mercosur countries focusing particularly on their impacts in Brazil. Four possible agreements between Europe and Mercosur are simulated, including a broader multilateral agreement proposed in the G20. The results suggest that a bilateral scenario involving larger tariff rate quota increase, as called for by Mercosur, generates larger gains than accepting the European Union proposal of 2004 or further multilateral trade liberalization based on the G20 proposal. However, much larger increases in tariff rate quotas for all products are not necessarily justified in all cases. Moreover, Brazil's production and export potential is limited by factors other than trade restrictions.     

The Doha Round of the World Trade Organization and Agricultural Markets Liberalization: Impacts on Developing Economies

We investigate the impacts of multilateral removal of all border taxes and farm programs and their distortions on developing economies, using a world agriculture partial equilibrium model. We quantify changes in prices, trade flows, and production locations. Border measures and farm programs both affect world trade, but trade barriers have the largest impact. Following removal, trade expansion is substantial for most commodities, especially dairy, meats, and vegetable oils. Net agricultural and food exporters emerge with expanded exports; net importing countries with limited distortions before liberalization are penalized by higher world prices and reduced imports. We draw implications for current World Trade Organization negotiations.     

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on the International Oilseed Complex

One approach to trade liberalization is the zero-for-zero sectoral approach which involves agreements to eliminate export subsidies, import tariffs, and export taxes in a sector. This article provides an assessment of the impact of border trade liberalization on oilseeds and oilseed products trade. The analysis suggests that under all of the scenarios examined, North American oilseed crushers and oilseed producers gain from trade liberalization. The exact size and the distribution of these gains depends on the number of countries that participate in trade liberalization. The results suggest that the United States and Canada would gain from the adoption of the zero-for-zero proposal.     

Macro–micro feedback links of water management in South Africa: CGE analyses of selected policy regimes

The pressure on an already stressed water situation in South Africa is predicted to increase significantly under climate change, plans for large industrial expansion, ongoing rapid urbanization, and government programs to provide access to water to millions of previously excluded populations. This article employs a general equilibrium approach to examine the economy‐wide impacts of selected macro and water‐related policy reforms on water use and allocation, rural livelihoods, and economy at large. The analyses reveal that implicit crop‐level water quotas reduce the amount of irrigated land allocated to higher‐value horticultural crops and create higher shadow rents for production of lower‐value water‐intensive field crops, such as sugarcane and fodder. Accordingly, liberalizing local water allocation within irrigation agriculture is found to work in favor of higher‐value crops, and expand agricultural production and exports and farm employment. Allowing for water trade between irrigation and nonagricultural uses fuelled by higher competition for water from urbanization leads to greater water shadow prices for irrigation water with reduced income and employment benefits to rural households and higher gains for nonagricultural households. The analyses show difficult trade‐offs between general economic gains and higher water prices, which place serious questions on subsidizing water supply to irrigated agriculture, i.e., making irrigation subsidies much harder to justify.     

The trade and environment nexus in Mexican agriculture. A general equilibrium analysis

This paper analyzes linkages between growth, trade and the environment in Mexican agriculture with an empirical economy-wide model. The investigation considers trade liberalization, environmental policy reform, and their coordination. The analysis decomposes the change in pollution emission induced by changes in the sectoral composition of production, effects of technology on emission intensity, and aggregate Scale effects. Outward orientation alone induces a contraction of aggregate agricultural output, but promotes growth and pollution in some agricultural sectors. Overall, free trade does not induce wholesale specialization in dirty agricultural activities. Environmental taxes on pollution emitted in agricultural sectors have a moderate negative impact on agricultural output, except for the tax on water-borne toxic chemicals. More liberal trade combined with targeted effluent taxes can achieve significant environmental mitigation and efficiency gains, but with the implication of a contraction of most agricultural sectors.     

More or Less Ambition in the Doha Round? Modeling the Development Impact of Recent Proposals

We analyse the impact on developing countries, whose economies depend heavily on agriculture, of a WTO Doha Development Round agreement based on greater or lesser levels of ambition. We present the results of an ambitious versus an unambitious Doha Round outcome, using the MIRAGE model of the global economy, with a special focus on developing countries. Our simulations are based on negotiating proposals from the run-up to the Hong Kong ministerial meeting but not agreed upon in December 2005. We compare those outcomes with the estimated effects of full global trade liberalization. The results for the two Doha scenarios demonstrate the high stakes of this negotiation given the positions of EU, US and the G-20 coalition. A successful round could deliver real gains both globally and for developing countries, but the magnitude of those gains depends on the shape of the agreement. A reform outcome based on the most ambitious components of the negotiating proposals of the US and EU delivers noticeably greater benefits than an unambitious outcome. Developing countries are exposed to very contrasting fortunes. The details matter in the differing proposals, such as the tariff and domestic support reduction formulae, tariff caps, and number of sensitive and special products. Negotiating commitment and diligence are needed in 2006 to avoid a hollow Doha outcome given the technical character of these details.     

Impacts of feed ingredient subsidy removal and concurrent trade liberalization in Tunisia

This article summarizes findings from a recent agricultural policy study examining the impacts of trade liberalization and removal of feed ingredient subsidies in Tunisia. A linear programming model was used to simulate private sector response to these policy changes. Increased feedgrain prices result from subsidy removal but effects are lessened if subsidy removal is coupled with trade liberalization. Induced long-term effects are improved efficiency in production of feedgrains, feedgrain substitutes, and livestock.