新古典模型中收入和财富分配持续不平等的动态演化

本文讨论了当个人劳动能力和偏好存在差异的情况下,资本收入和劳动收入分配的差异如何通过遗产机制影响收入和财富分配的持续性不平等程度。论文分析表明:在偏好、个人劳动能力和个人收入的随机冲击的影响下,如果市场是完善的,整个经济系统存在收入和财富分配的稳定不平等状态,而且,这种稳定的不平等状态与初始的财富分配的不平等和一次性的产权配置都是无关的。最后,本文分析了资本收入税和劳动收入税对持续不平等程度的影响,通过分析指出:从长期来看,在劳动能力和初始财富存在差异而偏好没有差异的情况下,征收劳动收入税比征收资本收入税更有利于改善由于能力差异所造成的持续不平等。     

Environmental Quality,Public Debt and Economic Development

This article analyzes the consequences on capital accumulation and environmental quality of environmental policies financed by public debt. A public sector of pollution abatement is financed by a tax or by public debt. We show that if the initial capital stock is high enough, the economy monotonically converges to a long-run steady state. On the contrary, when the initial capital stock is low, the economy is relegated to an environmental poverty trap. We also explore the implications of public policies on the trap and on the long-run stable steady state. In particular, we find that government should decrease debt and increase pollution abatement to promote capital accumulation and environmental quality at the stable long-run steady state. Finally, a welfare analysis shows that there exists a level of public debt that allows a long run steady state to be optimal.     

教育投资、资本市场不完全与收入差距

教育和人力资本投资在决定发展中国家的收入分配和经济增长中起到重要的作用。不同的教育水平具有不同的收益率。由于资本市场的不完善,发展中国家的家庭往往存在信贷约束。因此,通过发展教育来缩小收入差距需要配合资本市场的建设。     

新古典模型中收入和财富分配持续不平等的动态演化

本文讨论了当个人劳动能力和偏好存在差异的情况下，资本收入和劳动收入分配的差异如何通过遗产机制影响收入和财富分配的持续性不平等程度。论文分析表明：在偏好、个人劳动能力和个人收入的随机冲击的影响下，如果市场是完善的，整个经济系统存在收入和财富分配的稳定不平等状态，而且，这种稳定的不平等状态与初始的财富分配的不平等和一次性的产权配置都是无关的。最后，本文分析了资本收入税和劳动收入税对持续不平等程度的影响，通过分析指出：从长期来看，在劳动能力和初始财富存在差异而偏好没有差异的情况下，征收劳动收入税比征收资本收入税更有利于改善由于能力差异所造成的持续不平等。     

Effects of uncertain lifetime and annuity insurance on capital accumulation and growth

Summary.  This paper studies the effects of uncertain lifetime on capital accumulation and growth and also the sensitivity of those effects to the existence of a perfect annuities market. The model is an overlapping generations model with uncertain lifetimes. The technology is convex and such that the marginal product of capital is bounded away from zero. A contribution of this paper is to show that the existence of accidental bequests may lead the economy to an equilibrium that exhibits asymptotic growth, which is impossible in an economy with a perfect annuities market or with certain lifetimes. This paper also shows that if individuals face a positive probability of surviving in every period, they may be willing to save at any age. This effect of uncertain lifetime on savings may also lead the economy to an equilibrium exhibiting asymptotic growth even if there exists a perfect annuities market. Received: April 17, 1996; revised version: December 9, 1997     

韩国促进科技与金融结合的政策措施

韩国建立的致力于科技创新的金融支援体系,为创新经济、培育战略性新兴产业、应对金融危机等发挥了重要作用。长期以来,韩国陆续建立了各种金融资金支援制度,如,金融支援制度、租税支援制度、新技术产品市场支援制度等,大力发展创业风险投资和科技资本市场,使得科技与金融呈现出一种互利互动的关系,成为提高科技创新能力的基础和保障,韩国的高新技术产业乃至整体社会经济由此实现了持续快速增长。     

CONSUMPTION AND LEISURE EXTERNALITIES, ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EQUILIBRIUM EFFICIENCY

This paper analyzes the effects of consumption and leisure externalities on growth and welfare in a two‐sector endogenous growth model with human capital accumulation. Both types of externalities are shown to affect the long‐run equilibrium and optimal growth rates in a rather different way. The relationship between the steady state of the market and the centrally planned economy is also analyzed. The optimal growth path can be decentralized by resorting to consumption or labor income taxation, whereas capital income should be untaxed. Numerical simulations suggest that growth and welfare effects of mild consumption and leisure externalities may be quantitatively important.     

Human capital investment,credentialing, and wage differentials

This study considers how individuals determine at what ratio they will invest in two different types of education. The first type contributes to the development of labor skills, while the other does not. We refer to the former as human capital investment and the latter as unproductive investment, which improves test scores but has no beneficial effect on students' human capital. We formulate an overlapping‐generations economy in which the rich and poor households invest in both types of education. We find that the ratio of human capital investment to unproductive investment is lower in the economy with medium size of the wage differentials. In a dynamic analysis, we identify two patterns of stable steady states for the dynamics of the wage differentials, namely, no‐inequality and high‐inequality steady states. Further, we show that a rapid increase in the level of skill‐biased technology may cause a switch from a steady state with no‐inequality to one with high inequality. This causes at least a temporary increase in the ratio of unproductive investment during the transition to the new steady state.     

资本市场开放与经济稳定增长—对东南亚国家的实证分析及其启示

20世纪90年代,国际资本的急剧流动引发了东南亚的金融危机。国际资本的短期性和投机性,以及它对发展中国家的资本市场、汇率、外汇储备和金融体系的强烈冲击,应当引起我们的深思。资本市场的开放,必须建立在国内金融体系的改革和实质经济市场化转型的基础上。     

Public Expenditure,Environment, and Economic Growth

This paper attempts to develop a model of endogenous growth with special consideration to the role of productive public expenditure in the presence of congestion effect of private capital and environmental pollution. We analyze the properties of the optimal fiscal policy in the steady‐state equilibrium when the level of production of the final good is the source of emission. Government allocates its income tax revenue between pollution abatement expenditure and productive public expenditure. In the steady‐state equilibrium, optimum ratio of productive public expenditure to national income is less than the competitive output share of the public input; and this ratio varies inversely with the magnitude of the emission‐output coefficient. The steady‐state equilibrium appears to be a saddle point; and the market economy growth rate is not necessarily less than the socially efficient growth rate in the steady‐state equilibrium.     

Inflationary Finance, Capital Controls, and Currency Substitution

This paper studies currency substitution in an environment where agents' inflation tax-evasive demand for foreign money is balanced by the concern for the possibility that the government may impose economy-wide capital controls under which foreign currency transactions are costly. Under the assumption of endogenous beliefs, the results show a persistent demand for foreign money despite efforts by the government to reduce inflation. In addition, the economy can exhibit multiple, Pareto-ranked steady states with different levels of currency substitution. The stability analysis suggests that the economy converges to the inferior steady state, on the "wrong side" of the Laffer curve.     

Property rights and long-run capital

Proprietary capital falling into the public domain inefficiently decreases capital accumulation. As a consequence, the market steady state consumption underperforms the planner's by 4.6%–9.1% in a neoclassical infinitely-lived agents economy with constant returns to scale and standard empirically supported parameters. The results extend robustly to an overlapping generations economy, for which the gap is 10.5% when similarly parametrized. A policy decentralizing, in the latter, the planner's steady state instead consists of (i) subsidizing the rental rate of private capital at its depreciation rate, and (ii) taxing households' negative net position between, on the one hand, firm and depreciated capital ownership, and on the other, borrowing. Under this policy, the necessary tax rate on households' negative net position is smaller the bigger the absolute value of the latter and, hence, the bigger the corresponding monetary real balances held by households.     

National labor markets, international factor mobility and macroeconomic instability

We consider a standard two-country environment, where one of the two countries has a rigid labor market, and analyze how global economic integration affects the economies with respect to expectations-driven cycles and steady state welfare. We show that by allowing free capital mobility, equilibrium indeterminacy is exported from the rigid wage country to the world economy. If further liberalization is permitted, by allowing free movements of labor, the scope for indeterminacy is reduced and open labor markets may produce a stabilizing effect on the global macro-economy. Whether this also implies higher welfare in the long run depends on differentials in average firm size across countries, which determines the direction of migration flows.     

Economic Growth with Foreign Capital

In growth theory, foreign investment places a small open economy in the international steady state. In applied growth theory, foreign investment is assumed to shift technology. The present growth model separates foreign from domestic capital and develops the steady state where both capital/labor ratios are stationary. A capital scarce country would attract foreign investment and may arrive at a steady state with perpetual foreign investment. Such a steady state foreign investment host is characterized by low saving and high labor growth rates, and source countries the opposite. Incomplete convergence characterizes economic growth with foreign capital.     

金融风暴中的风险管理与防范

2007年7月以来,美国次贷危机持续笼罩全球金融市场,导致美国房价大跌,资金紧缩,对世界股票市场、期货市场造成极大的冲击.随着金融危机对全球实体经济影响的日益加深,我国银行业也出现投资资产价值下降、零售业务放缓等迹象.因而,我国银行业应针对信贷管理中存在的薄弱环节,采取积极的措施,防范金融风险,保障商业银行健康发展.     

关于中国发展货币市场基金的思考

货币市场基金是实现货币市场与资本市场协调发展的重要制度安排。随着经济的发展和技术的进步,中国已经内生出对货币市场基金制度的创新需求,但仍存在一些制约其健康运行的制度障碍。通过比较制度分析,中国适宜采用融合发展型的制度变迁模型来推动中国的金融发展。     

Lindahl Pricing, Nonrival Infrastructure, and Endogenous Growth

The paper constructs a model of endogenous growth where infrastructure is an accumulable stock generating a nonrival input service. A typical market economy cannot attain the socially optimum steady state path, since nonrivalry precludes competitive pricing of infrastructure. However, there exist agent specific prices for the infrastructural service, a price for the infrastructural stock, a rate of interest, and a subsidy for the representative household that can sustain the optimal path as a dynamic Lindahl equilibrium. The rates of return from physical and infrastructural capital equal the rate of interest. Investment programs are socially optimum. The government's budget is balanced.     

开放资本市场与国家金融安全

要成为一个经济强国，其资本市场一定要开放。资本市场一开放，将对该国的金融安全产生威胁。资本市场开放使国家减弱了对汇率、利率的调节能力。我国的国民经济高速发展，国际收支状况良好，人民币汇率稳定，证券市场有了一定的发展，因此具有一定的抗冲击能力。但目前，我国在资本市场抗冲击能力上仍存在不少问题。要提高资本市场抗冲击能力，就要选择有限制的直接开放模式。     

养老基金应谨慎进入资本市场

为使养老金获得较高且稳定的收益回报,入市也许是当前不错的选择。但中国宏观经济长期发展趋势和国外养老基金在资本市场投资的事实表明:养老基金收益回报来源于经济的真实增长和市场的有效结构,资本市场并不一定能保证养老基金能够获得高收益;相反,盲目的投资可能带来更坏的结果。     

Capital inflows, fiscal discretion, and exchange rate policy

Many writers have argued for the benefits of a credible fixed exchange rate (a hard peg) as a commitment device in an open economy. But historically, fixed exchange rates have often been associated with large current account deficits and episodes of ‘over-borrowing’. This paper develops a model of capital inflows that are linked to the exchange rate regime because of endogenous fiscal policy. The key message of the paper is that a hard peg is undesirable in the absence of commitment in fiscal policy. In face of a credible fixed exchange rate, the fiscal authority subsidizes capital inflows. The economy will engage in inefficiently high international borrowing, and in welfare terms may end up worse off than under capital market autarky. To eliminate the incentive to subsidize borrowing, the monetary authority must follow a flexible exchange rate rule in which capital inflows lead to exchange rate appreciation. If fiscal policy must be financed by money creation rather than direct taxation, then a fixed exchange rate rule may cause both over-borrowing and a subsequent exchange rate crisis.