Exchange rate pass-through and its determinants in Canadian manufacturing industries

In this paper the pass-through of exchange rate changes into the real prices of domestically produced and imported goods in Canadian manufacturing industries is examined through industry estimates of the pass-through elasticities and a cross-section analysis of their determinants. We find that the domestic pass-through elasticity increases with the effect of the exchange rate on domestic costs of production, the export share, the elasticity of substitution between imports and domestic goods, and the domestic advertising intensity. The import elasticity increases with the elasticity of substitution and the rate of price protection and decreases with advertising intensity. JEL Classification: L60, F14
Les effets de changements dans le taux de change sur les prix réels dans les industries manufacturières canadiennes. Ce mémoire examine les effets des changements dans le taux de change sur les prix réels des biens produits au Canada ou importés pour les industries manufacturières canadiennes en construisant des estimés par secteur des élasticités de transfert et en examinant leurs déterminants dans une analyse trasnversale. On montre que l'élasticité de transfert domestique s'accroît à proportion que l'effet du taux de change sur les coûts internes de production, la part des exportations, l'élasticité de substitution entre importations et biens domestiques, et l'intensité de publicité au plan interne sont importants. L'élasticité des importations s'accroît avec l'élasticité de substitution et le taux de protection des prix, et décroît avec le niveau d'intensité de la publicité.     

Price and quantity adjustments in the Austrian labour market

Austria is among the very few countries in the European Union which have managed to maintain comparatively low unemployment rates and high employment rates. This study looks at the price and quantity adjustment mechanisms in the Austrian labour market which may have contributed to this favourable outcome. After reviewing briefly the basic theoretical reasoning an empirical investigation is began into gross flow dynamics in the labour market and the cyclical volatility of employment and unemployment in Austria. In international comparison Austrian unemployment is very stable over the business cycle. This is due mainly to the high sensitivity of the labour force on cyclical conditions and, partly, also on the relatively weak responsiveness of employment to cyclical fluctuations in output, the latter being possibly attributable to the high degree of real wage flexibility in Austria. The study proceeds to show that the long-run elasticity of wages with respect to unemployment is indeed quite high in Austria. However, evidence was also found for outsider effects in the Austrian wage setting process. Relative wage structures, on the other hand, appear to be rather rigid.     

Fiscal adjustments,labour market flexibility and unemployment

Using a panel of 17 countries for 1978–2009, we find that tax-driven consolidations increase unemployment by 0.25 percentage points. Labour market flexibility mitigates this: a one-point rise in the flexibility index reduces youth (long-term) unemployment by 0.6–0.7 (1.8–2.2) percentage points.     

Exchange rate pass-through in Canadian manufacturing: its direct and indirect components

Changes in the exchange rate have direct and indirect effects on the prices of domestically produced goods and imports in the domestic market. The direct effects originate with the impact of the exchange rate on the marginal cost of imports; the indirect effects, with its impact on the price of materials used by domestic producers and hence on their marginal costs. Direct and indirect exchange rate pass-through elasticities are estimated for 37 Canadian manufacturing industries and their determinants are examined in a cross-section analysis. It is found that the direct and indirect elasticities are approximately equal in size for domestic goods, while the direct effect is dominant for imports. For a small number of industries, the net result of the direct and indirect effects is that a depreciation of the domestic currency increases the competitiveness of imports, contrary to conventional analysis. Important determinants of the direct (indirect) elasticities are the import share and non-tariff barriers (the responsiveness of domestic costs to changes in the exchange rate, and concentration).     

Link between innovation and productivity in Canadian manufacturing industries

Empirical studies commonly use research and development (R&D) to measure innovation and often find, especially in Canada, no strong link between productivity and innovation. In this article, we model innovation as an unobservable latent variable that underlies four indicators: R&D, patents, technology adoption, and skills. We find that these indicators are reasonably good measures of innovation for aggregate manufacturing. However, except for skills, the reliability of the indicators for innovation differs among individual industries. Our innovation indexes, based on the latent variable model, show that most manufacturing industries became more innovative over the 1980–1997 period. The pace of innovation in the electrical and electronic products industry accelerated during the 1990s. In addition, we show that the new measure of innovation has a positive and statistically significant impact on productivity. It takes from 1 to 3 years, depending on the industry, for innovation to generate an impact on productivity.     

Adjustment costs and factor demands in Canadian manufacturing industries

This paper examines whether there is a relationship between the commodity terms of trade (the price of primary commodities relative to the price of manufactures) and the net barter terms of trade of 42 Sub-Saharan African countries. For most countries, there is little evidence of a stable, long-run relationship between the two terms of trade series. Accordingly, the practice in the literature of proxying for movements in any given country's terms of trade by using an aggregate index of relative commodity prices is inappropriate, and is likely to engender misleading policy conclusions.     

Concentration history and market power in US manufacturing industries

For a 1963–1992 panel of US manufacturing industries, the relationship between seller concentration and both price-cost margins (PCMs) and prices is investigated for industries divided by whether concentration has recently increased or decreased. Regressions of PCM in levels and first differences, and price equations in first differences, establish that the positive effect of concentration on prices and profits is always weaker in industries where concentration has recently increased and always stronger in industries where concentration has recently decreased. These results are attributed to the different endogeneity biases in the two samples. Increasing concentration industries are more likely the ones where leading firms have lowered prices to gain share, while decreasing concentration industries are more likely the ones where smaller firms have lowered concentration by lowering prices. An additional conclusion is that the cost-reducing effects of changes in concentration are greater for increasing concentration industries, meaning that increasing concentration industries have lower price increases compared to decreasing concentration industries.     

Determinants of domestic and import prices in Canadian manufacturing industries

This paper examines the determinants of the prices of domestic and imported goods in the domestic market using time-series data for a broad sample of Canadian manufacturing industries. It is found that the costs of both goods are the fundamental determinants of their prices, that the pass-through of costs into prices depends on the levels of domestic and import costs, real income per capita and concentration, and that factors which increase the sensitivity of both prices to domestic costs also reduce their sensitivity to import costs. In addition, it appears that the way in which prices are determined differs between industries with low versus high advertising-sales ratios.     

Measuring market power in the Greek manufacturing and services industries

This paper investigates the level of market power in the Greek manufacturing and services industry over the period 1970–2007. Based on the Roeger methodology, we investigate the competitive conditions in the examined industries at a disaggregated level (two and three digit ISIC codes). The empirical results indicate that the Greek manufacturing and services industries operate in non-competitive conditions. Moreover, average mark-up ratios are heterogeneous across sectors, with manufacturing having higher mark ups on average than services. In contrast to other related studies, we provide sufficient evidence about the movements of mark-up ratios over time. According to our findings, the mark-up ratios in the manufacturing sectors are, on average, higher in the post European Union (EU) accession period (1982–1992), as a result of the merger wave in the manufacturing industry. However, this upward trend stopped within the period (1993–2007), and the relevant ratios have decreased substantially. The econometric results are quite robust when the Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) and the bootstrap method are applied. Lastly, the results of our analysis have a number of interesting implications for policy makers and government officials in light of the recent financial crisis that hit Greece.     

The role of credentials in the Canadian labour market

We study the role of credentials or 'sheepskin effects' in the Canadian labour market. Sheepskin effects refer to increases in wages associated with the receipt of a degree after controlling for educational inputs such as years of schooling. We find strong evidence of sheepskin effects associated with graduation from high school, community college or trade school, and university. The importance of credentials increases with educational attainment, accounting for 30 per cent of the return to 16 years of schooling but more than half of returns above 16 years. Our evidence indicates that both years of schooling and degree completion influence earnings. JEL Classification: I2, J3
Le rôle des certificats dans le marché du travail au Canada. Les auteurs étudient le rôle des certificats ou des «effets de parchemin>> dans le marché du travail au Canada. Les effets de parchemin font référence aux augmentations de salaires associées à l'obtention d'un diplôme ou d'un grade après avoir pris en compte l'expérience éducationnelle comme les années d'éducation. On découvre des résultats probants pour ce qui est des effets de parchemin associés à l'obtention d'un diplôme d'école secondaire, de collège communautaire, d'école technique, et d'université. L'importance de la certification augmente avec le niveau d'instruction : elle compte pour 30 pourcent du rendement pour 16 années de scolarité mais pour plus de la moitié des rendements pour la scolarité au delà de ces premiers 16 ans. Les résultats indiquent que tant les années de scolarité que la certification comme telle ont un impact sur les gains.     

Exchange rate market efficiency and new information

This paper uses a multi-currency approach to analyze the relationship between forward exchange rates, future spot rates and new information. The empirical results tend to support the hypothesis that the exchange rate can be expressed as a function of factors known in advance and ‘news’.     

International trade,secondary output and concentration in Canadian manufacturing industries, 1979

Census concentration measures do not account for either secondary output or imports. Taking these into account, for Canada in 1979, shows that measured concentration substantially overstates the degree to which a small number of firms controls a large proportion of industry output. Correcting for imports has a much greater effect than correcting for secondary output. These results are much more apparent in national than regional industries. On the other hand, taking into account exports has virtually no effect on estimates of concentration. These findings strengthen, as well as throw additional light on earlier work for the UK and Canada, which made ad hoc corrections to census concentration measures.     

The disintegrating Canadian labour market? The extent of the market then and now

Abstract.  Analysis of real wages for three occupations in 13 Canadian cities for 1901–50 suggests Canada had a national labour market at least until 1950. However, analysis of real wages for 10 Canadian cities for 1971–2000 yields little evidence favouring integration of Canada's regional labour markets. The apparent lack of labour market integration reflects a weakness of an approach that assumes markets are in equilibrium. Unemployment rates after 1970 suggest that some regional markets may be characterized by excess labour supply. Analysis of relative provincial unemployment rates yields evidence consistent with local labour force adjustment to changing labour market conditions. JEL classification: E24, J61     

Export‐market participation and productivity performance in Canadian manufacturing

Abstract.  In this paper, we explore the linkages between export‐market participation and productivity performance in Canadian manufacturing plants. We also examine differences in the relationship between exporting and productivity for foreign‐controlled as opposed to domestic‐controlled plants, and between younger and older plants. Export participation is associated with improved productivity. The effect is much stronger for domestic‐controlled plants than for foreign‐controlled plants and for younger businesses than for older businesses. We interpret this as evidence that there is a learning effect associated with export activity but that the potential for improving productivity with entry to export markets differs across firms. JEL Classification: F1, O4     

Exchange rate fluctuations in an economy with noise traders

This paper analyzes the stability of the exchange rate in an economy with noise traders. Noise trading is restricted to agents investing in the domestic stock market. The agents pricing foreign exchange hold rational expectations. Monetary policy is affected by the behavior of investors in the domestic stock market and in turn affects fundamental stock evaluations as well as noise trading. We show that when monetary policy affects only fundamentalists bifurcation appears in the exchange rate. When monetary policy also affects noise trading, fixing the exchange rate or switching to a low money growth rule imply stock bubbles converge to zero.     

Constructing the job-finding rate and separation rate of Hong Kong labour market

This paper constructs two essential time series of the aggregate labour market in Hong Kong: the job-finding rate and the separation rate. The average job-finding rate per month is 27.54% while the average separation rate per month is 1.29%. These numbers are similar to those for Nordic and Anglo-Saxon countries. Variance decomposition shows that the separation rate contributes to more than half the variation of the unemployment rate.     

Exchange rate,marginal q and investment behaviour of small and medium-sized enterprises in Japan: time series evidence of manufacturing industries

In this article, we investigate Granger’s causality among the exchange rate, Tobin’s marginal q and investment-capital ratio with quarterly data on firms categorized as small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Japan. We utilize the data of the following industries: chemical, iron and steel, production machinery, electric machinery and equipment, automobile and accessories and all manufacturing. The empirical results we obtain show that the null hypotheses of no Granger’s causality from the exchange rate to other variables, investment and marginal q, are accepted in all industries. The reason is the lower percentage of export by SMEs. Thus, it is considered that the effects of Abenomics on SMEs are limited, and that other kinds of reflation measures for SMEs are needed.     

Canadian regional labour market evolutions: a long-run restrictions SVAR analysis

Canada's high reliance on commodities can work against its constitutionally mandated goal of regional equity in economic development, while also inhibiting macroeconomic performance and limiting monetary policy effectiveness. Yet, flexible and integrated regional labour markets can help achieve both equity and macroeconomic goals. Therefore, this study examines the dynamics of Canadian provincial labour markets using a long-run restrictions structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Labour market fluctuations are decomposed into the parts arising from shocks to labour demand (new jobs), labour supply through migration (new people) and internal labour supply (original residents). The results suggest that demand innovations primarily underlie provincial labour market fluctuations. Despite significant geographic and language barriers that could impede their performance, there also is little overall evidence to suggest that provincial labour markets are more sluggish or less flexible than US state labour markets. Finally, original residents benefit slightly more from increased provincial labour demand compared to findings for US states.     

Unemployment,long-term employment relations and the determination of unit labour cost growth in US manufacturing industries

This paper examines the effect that unemployment and long-term employment relations exert on the determination of unit labour costs. The paper proceeds in three sections. Section one analyses the relationship between labour market conditions and unit labour costs by developping a simple model of a firm that relies upon dismissal threats to elicit work effort. The comparative static properties of this model suggest that a tightening of labour markets may result in an increase in unit labour costs. In addition, it is argued that the labour market disequilibrium that occurs at full employment levels of unemployment will likely result in an increase in the growth rate of unit labour costs. The second section of the paper reviews diverse theories of long-term employment relations (LTERs), each of which suggest that the presence of LTERs ought to reduce the effect that labour market conditions exert on unit labour costs. The third section of the paper presents empirical estimates of the effect unemployment and LTERs exert on unit labour costs. The central empirical findings can be briefly summarized. First, movements towards full employment increase the growth rate of wages, reduce the growth rate of labour productivity and increase the growth rate of unit labour costs. Secondly, where long-term employment relations are prevalent, the effect of unemployment on wage, labour productivity, and unit labour cost growth is diminished. The paper concludes by discussing the implications these findings have for effort regulation models and the macroeconomic foundations of microeconomic labour market structures