Skilled–unskilled wage inequality,nontraded good and endogenous supply of skilled labour: A theoretical analysis

The paper develops a static four sector competitive general equilibrium model of a small open economy in which skilled labour is endogenously produced by the education sector and is mobile between a traded good sector and a nontraded good sector. Capital is also perfectly mobile among the education sector, skilled labour using traded good sector and the nontraded good sector. However, land and unskilled labour are specific to another traded good sector. We analyse the effects of change in different factor endowments and reduction in tariff rate on skilled–unskilled wage inequality. We find that the effect of a change in different parameters on wage inequality depends on the factor intensity ranking between two skilled labour using sectors and on the relative strength of the marginal effects on demand for and supply of nontraded final good. We also analyse the effects of changes in different parameters on the supply of skilled labour.     

A MACROECONOMIC PERSPECTIVE ON SKILL SHORTAGES AND THE SKILL PREMIUM IN NEW ZEALAND*

Qualification and occupation‐based measures of skilled labour are constructed to explain the skill premium – the wage of skilled labour relative to unskilled labour in New Zealand. The data exhibit a more rapid growth in the supply of skilled labour than the skill premium, and a very large increase in the real minimum wage over the period from 1986 to 2005. We estimate the rate of increase in the relative demand for skills and the elasticity of substitution. The data are consistent with skill shortages and a skill‐bias technical change. We examine the effects of the minimum wage, capital complementarity, and the exchange rate on the skill premium. We also test whether the demand for skills and the elasticity of substitution varied across industries and over time.     

Monetary Shocks and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics: a Reappraisal

This paper proposes a two‐country general‐equilibrium model incorporating a tradable sector with pricing‐to‐market as well as a nontradable sector. In that case, real exchange rate fluctuations arise from two sources: changes in the relative price of traded goods, that exemplify deviations from the law of one price, and movements in the relative price of traded to nontraded goods across countries. Our framework sheds light on the propagation mechanisms through which monetary shocks affect the real exchange rate. More specifically, the two components respond in opposite directions to monetary disturbances, which is consistent with data. Besides, the introduction of nontraded goods does not alter the predictive power of monetary shocks because the presence of nontraded goods magnifies the response of the deviation from the law of one price.     

What Determines Real Exchange Rates? The Nordic Countries

The model derived in this paper yields testable implications concerning the long‐run co‐movements of real exchange rates, relative labor productivity, the trade balance and terms of trade. Countries with relatively higher output growth, trade deficits or improved terms of trade are found to have more appreciated real exchange rates, with the main channel of transmission working through the relative price of nontraded goods. Exogenous terms‐of‐trade shocks are found to be the most important determinant of long‐run movements in the real exchange rate for Denmark and Norway, while demand shocks account for most of the long‐run variance in the real exchange rate for Finland and Sweden.     

Nontraded Goods and Real Exchange Rates in a Multi‐Good Ricardian Model

The two‐country Ricardian trade model with discrete goods and uniform transport costs for tradable goods is applied to the decomposition of the real exchange rate into traded and nontraded components. The real exchange rate is driven almost entirely by changes in the productivity differentials in nontraded goods and also explains the Balassa–Samuelson effect of a lower cost of living in poor countries, but extraordinary transport costs for some nontraded goods are necessary to easily explain the Balassa–Samuelson effect.     

Tradable and nontradable directed technical change

ABSTRACT

We wish to reconcile the major trends in wages and the terms of trade using a directed technical change approach in which: (i) tradable and nontradable goods can be substitutes or complements; and (ii) scale effects can be present or can be partially or totally removed. With a lower skilled labour ratio and a higher relative wage in the tradable sector, the price (real exchange rate or terms of trade) mechanism is crucial in determining sectoral productivity differences and thus wage inequality. Along the balanced growth path, the real exchange rate can be negatively related with the relative productivities in horizontal innovation (the Balassa-Samuelson effect) and with the relative labour level, depending on scale effects. The wage premium increases due to an increase in the relative labour level in the nontradable sector under substitutability with scale effects or under complementarity without scale effects. A calibrated version of the model indicates that the model closely replicates the data for Germany. Moreover, while the Balassa-Samuelson effect is quantified, an increase in the relative supply of labour in the tradable sector decreases both terms of trade and inequality.     

Offshoring and Trade Balance in Developed and Emerging Economies

This paper analyzes the effects of off‐shore outsourcing for international trade, especially for the emerging and poor economies, in a two‐sector specific factor model, with a nontraded good being one of the sectors. The phenomenon of offshoring is modeled by incorporating the reduced use of domestic labor in the production function. This is regarded as a characteristic feature of offshoring in the literature. We find that increased offshoring leads to an increase in the relative price of the nontraded good. Given that this relative price can be interpreted as the real exchange rate, increased offshoring leads to exchange rate appreciation. This suggests that offshoring actually makes the goods and services from the emerging economies more competitive in the world market, and thus can be a contributory factor in the positive trade balance experienced by many emerging economies since early 2000s.     

Shocks and rigidities as determinants of CEE labour markets’ performance

In this article, the impact of real wage, productivity, labour demand and supply shocks on eight Central and Eastern European (CEE) economies from 1996–2007 is analysed with a panel structural vector error correction model. A set of long‐run restrictions derived from the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model is used to identify structural shocks, and fluctuations in foreign demand are controlled for. We find that the propagation of shocks on CEE labour markets resembles that found for OECD countries. Labour demand shocks emerge as the main determinant of employment and unemployment variability in the short‐to‐medium run, but wage rigidities were equally important for observed labour market performance, especially in Poland, Czech Republic and Lithuania. We associate these rigidities with collective bargaining, minimum wage, active labour market policies and employment protection legislation.     

Reconsidering Real Interest Parity for Traded and Nontraded Goods

The goal of this paper is to examine the hypothesis of real interest rate parity by contrasting real interest rates across traded and nontraded goods under flexible exchange rates. We employ panel unit root tests to investigate the stationarity of real interest rate differentials. In particular, empirical results support the mean‐reverting property of real interest rate differentials for interest rates measured in terms of traded goods.     

Sudden stops,sectoral reallocations,and the real exchange rate

A sudden stop of capital flows into a developing country tends to be followed by a rapid switch from trade deficits to surpluses, a depreciation of the real exchange rate, and decreases in output and total factor productivity. Substantial reallocation takes place from the nontraded sector to the traded sector. We construct a multisector growth model, calibrate it to the Mexican economy, and use it to analyze Mexico's 1994–95 crisis. When subjected to a sudden stop, the model accounts for the trade balance reversal and the real exchange rate depreciation, but it cannot account for the decreases in GDP and TFP. Extending the model to include labor frictions and variable capital utilization, we still find that it cannot quantitatively account for the dynamics of output and productivity without losing the ability to account for the movements of other variables.     

International capital and nontraded goods in the long run

The present paper develops the comparative static properties of a small open economy which produces both traded goods and nontraded goods, and is a price taker in the international market for productive capital. Assumptions of full employment, competitive markets, and international mobility of productive cap ital input capture a long run horizon. Comparative static results associated with the wage, labor, and the price of the nontraded good are independent of factor intensity, factor substitution, and demand for the nontraded good. A tax on the traded good and a capital subsidy together raise national income and the real wage.     

Persistence of Regional Wage Differences in China

Regional wage differences in China appear to be persistent and even to have grown over the past two decades. We study potential explanations for this phenomenon. After adjusting for the difference in the cost of living across provinces, we find that some of the cross‐province differences in real wages could be related to the quality of labour, industry composition and geographic location of provinces. These factors, taken together, explain approximately half of the cross‐province real wage variation. Interestingly, we find that interprovincial government transfers have not offset regional wage differences during the time period we consider. We also demonstrate that interprovincial migration, while driven in part by levels and changes in wage differences across provinces, did not help offset these differences. These results are consistent with findings in the literature that cross‐province labour mobility in China is still limited.     

Downward nominal wage rigidity in Canada: Evidence against a “greasing effect”

The existence of downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) has often been used to justify a positive inflation target. It is traditionally assumed that positive inflation could “grease the wheels” of the labour market by putting downward pressure on real wages, easing labour market adjustments during a recession. A rise in the inflation target would attenuate the long‐run level of unemployment and hasten economic recovery after an adverse shock. Following Daly and Hobijn (2014), we re‐examine these issues in a model that accounts for precautionary motives in wage‐setting behaviour. We confirm that DNWR generates a long‐run negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, in line with previous contributions to the literature. However, we also find that the increase in the number of people bound by DNWR following a negative demand shock rises with the inflation target, offsetting the beneficial effects a higher inflation target has on closing the unemployment gap. As an implication, contrary to previous contributions that neglected precautionary behaviour, the speed at which unemployment returns back to pre‐crisis levels during recessions is relatively unaffected by variations in the inflation target.     

NON-WAGE LABOUR COSTS, POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND LABOUR DEMAND – A THEORETICAL ASSESSMENT

Labour costs in various European countries have reached a record high in recent years. The topic of non‐wage labour costs is therefore increasingly being discussed among and between the political parties because non‐wage labour costs are likely to have major negative effects on employment. We follow the real options approach, which allows us to investigate the value to a firm of waiting to adjust labour when the firm's wage and non‐wage costs are stochastic and adjustment costs are sunk. Simulation exercises show that the interaction between hiring and firing costs, non‐wage labour costs and uncertainty can have important ramifications for employment dynamics.     

Wage inequality in Turkey, 2002–10

This paper studies the evolution of wage inequality in Turkey using household labour force survey data from 2002 to 2010. Between 2002 and 2004, the relative supply of more‐educated workers to less‐educated workers remained constant while their relative wages decreased in favour of less‐educated workers. However, between 2004 and 2010, the relative supply of more‐educated workers to less‐educated workers rose, while their relative wages remained constant or kept increasing in favour of more‐educated workers. This suggests factors other than those implied by a simple supply‐demand model are involved, such as skill‐biased technical change or minimum wage variations. The decomposition of wage inequality reveals that the price (wage) effect dominates the composition effect particularly in the first period. Our results show that the real minimum wage hike in 2004 corresponds to a major institutional change, which proved to be welfare‐increasing in terms of wage inequality. The upper‐tail (90/50) wage inequality decreased between 2002 and 2004 and stayed constant thereafter, whereas the lower‐tail (50/10) wage inequality decreased throughout the period. Our findings thus provide evidence supporting the institutional argument for explaining wage inequality.     

The NAIRU reconsidered: why labour market deregulation may raise unemployment

According to the mainstream theory of equilibrium unemployment, persistent unemployment is caused mainly by ‘excessive’ labour market regulation, whereas aggregate demand, capital accumulation and technological progress have no lasting effect on unemployment. We show that the mainstream non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model is a special case of a general model of equilibrium unemployment, in which aggregate demand, investment and endogenous technological progress do have long‐term effects. It follows that labour market deregulation does not necessarily reduce steady‐inflation unemployment. Theoretically, if the decline in real wage growth claims owing to deregulation is smaller than the ensuing decline in labour productivity growth and in the warranted real wage growth, then in that case steady‐inflation unemployment may increase. Empirical evidence for 20 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (1984–1997) indicates that the impact of labour market deregulation on OECD unemployment is zero, and possibly negative (causing a higher rate of unemployment).     

Skilled–unskilled wage inequality,product variety,public input and increasing returns: A static general equilibrium analysis

The paper develops a four sector small open economy model with two traded final good sectors, a public intermediate good producing sector and a nontraded good sector producing varieties of intermediate goods. There are three primary factors: capital, skilled labour and unskilled labour. Industrial sector producing a traded good uses capital, intermediate goods and skilled labour as inputs. Intermediate goods producing sector also uses capital and skilled labour. Public input producing sector and the agricultural sector producing the other traded good use capital and unskilled labour as inputs. It is shown that, if production technologies are the same for the agricultural sector and the public input producing sector and if the scale elasticity of output is very low, then an increase in capital stock (unskilled labour endowment) raises (lowers) the skilled–unskilled wage ratio. However, an increase in skilled labour endowment does not produce any unambiguous effect. On the other hand, an increase in the tax rate on industrial output and/or an increase in the price of the agricultural product, armed with the same set of assumptions, lowers the skilled–unskilled wage ratio.     

Are there bubbles in Chinese RMB–dollar exchange rate? Evidence from generalized sup ADF tests

This article uses recently developed generalized sup ADF (GSADF) unit root tests into the analysis of nominal RMB–dollar exchange rates bubbles. Based on the results from the GSADF tests, we find strong evidence of explosive behaviour in the nominal exchange rate and investigate two bubbles there. The first bubble is during 2005–2006 which is determined neither by the relative prices of traded goods nor the relative price of nontraded goods. The second bubble busts in 2008 during subprime crisis period, and which is determined by the relative prices of traded goods but not the relative price of nontraded goods. There is no bubble before 2005 as the exchange rate is under fixed regime. As for this result, some expansionary monetary and fiscal policies are required in China since these are the most efficient and effective under a bubble burst scenario.     

UNDERSTANDING REAL EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS WITH TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS

We suggest that it may be ‘too easy’ to attribute real exchange rate movements to deviations from the law of one price. We show that it is immaterial whether one uses seemingly traded goods, nontraded goods, or even a single, unimportant consumer good, say beer. The ease of attributing the variation to any such deviations is explained using a model with intermediate goods trade. In the model, the stage of production determines the traded/nontraded distinction. We find empirical substantiation for the model: law of one price deviations lose explanatory power and, defined appropriately in terms of intermediate goods, relative prices matter.     

Quantifying the Impact of Trade on Wages: the Role of Nontraded Goods

This paper uses an applied general‐equilbrium model to decompose the effects of changes in trade‐ and technology‐related variables between 1982 and 1996 in the United States on the wages of skilled and unskilled labor. The results indicate that trade‐related variables (tariff cuts, improvement in the terms of trade, and the increase in the trade deficit) had little impact on the widening wage gap. The major factor behind the rise in the skilled wage relative to the unskilled wage was differential rates of growth in skill‐biased technical change across sectors. The paper also highlights the role that nontraded goods play in explaining the wage gap. Finally, the paper presents estimates of how wages would change if the economy moved to autarky. The results show that expanding trade could actually reduce wage inequality, rather than increase it.