A Sequential Rationality Test of USDA Preliminary Price Estimates for Selected Program Crops: Rice, Soybeans, and Wheat

Despite recurrent evaluations on USDA price forecasts, the performance of USDA price estimates has not previously been examined in publication. To fill the void in research to this important public information, a sequential forecast evaluation procedure is applied to selected USDA price estimates: Rice, soybeans, and wheat. The evaluation procedure reveals that the USDA price estimates are short-run unbiased; however, they are not long-run rational. In addition, short-run optimality and efficiency tests suggest that USDA price estimates need to be properly scaled and fully reflect information embodied in past prices and their estimates — a possible venue to improve the predictability of USDA price estimates for the crops.     

Rational exuberance at the mall: addiction to carrying a credit card balance

The Becker-Murphy model of rational addiction is tested with New Zealand credit card debt data. The results clearly favour the rational addiction model over the myopic, backward-looking model. The estimated short-run and long-run price elasticities are ?0.58 and ?2.32 respectively, and the estimated rate of time-preference is 6.7% per quarter.     

HOUSING PRICE AND FUNDAMENTALS IN A TRANSITION ECONOMY: THE CASE OF THE BEIJING MARKET

This article develops a dynamic rational expectations general equilibrium framework that links house value to fundamental economic variables such as income growth, demographics, migration, and land supply. Our framework handles nonstationary dynamics as well as structural changes in fundamentals that are commonplace in transition economies. Applying the framework to Beijing, we find that the equilibrium house price and rent under reasonable parameterizations of the model are substantially lower than the data. We explore potential explanations for the discrepancies between the model and the data.     

Overreactions,Momentum, Liquidity,and Price Bubbles in Laboratory and Field Asset Markets

Laboratory asset markets provide an experimental setting in which to observe investor behavior. Over more than a decade, numerous studies have found that participants in laboratory experiments frequently drive asset prices far above fundamental value, after which the prices crash. This bubble-and-crash behavior is robust to variations in a number of variables, including liquidity (the amount of cash available relative to the value of the assets being traded), short-selling, certainty or uncertainty of dividend payments, brokerage fees, capital gains taxes, buying on margin, and others.

This paper attempts to model the behavior of asset prices in experimental settings by proposing a "momentum model" of asset price changes. The model assumes that investors follow a combination of two factors when setting prices: fundamental value, and the recent price trend. The predictions of the model, while still far from perfect, are superior to those of a rational expectations model, in which traders consider only fundamental value. In particular, the momentum model predicts that higher levels of liquidity lead to larger price bubbles, a result that is confirmed in the experiments. The similarity between laboratory results and data from field (real-world) markets suggests that the momentum model may be applicable there as well.     

Competitive prices for a stochastic input–output model with infinite time horizon

Consider a one-sector stochastic input–output model with infinite time horizon. The technology in each time period exhibits constant returns to scale on positive linear combinations of a finite number of basic input–output pairs. Furthermore, perfect information is available as a filtration generated by finite partitions of the state space. By definition, competitive prices require expected profit maximization in every time period. The Riesz representation of a sequence of competitive price functionals yields a state-price deflator with a supermartingale property. We show that there exists a competitive price system for some feasible program if and only if there is No Free Production (NFP). Furthermore, there exists a competitive price system for a particular program if and only if if NFP holds and the program is short-run efficient. This model includes a securities market model with or without convex cone trading constraints as a special case. Under these circumstances, NFP reduces to No Arbitrage and we recover a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. The author expresses gratitude for the advice of two anonymous referees, one who pointed out the simple way to prove the key lemma and the other who helped integrate the conclusions into the existent literature.     

Stability and bifurcation in a simple heterogeneous asset pricing model

Stability and bifurcation analysis of deterministic systems has been widely used in modeling financial markets. We develop a simple pricing model with two types of rational traders, fundamentalists and chartists, in order to study well price behavior in financial markets, we use student t distribution to replace traditional normal distribution to describe fundamental price process. We study the stability and bifurcation of the underling deterministic system and use numerical simulation to study the dynamic of the stochastic system, including autocorrelations structures and high kurtosis of the returns. It is found that the fundamental price becomes stable (unstable) when the activities from both types of traders are balanced (unbalanced).     

INVESTIGATING NONNEUTRALITY IN A STATE-DEPENDENT PRICING MODEL WITH FIRM-LEVEL PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS

In a model with fixed cost of price adjustment and idiosyncratic shocks, two parameterizations match a large set of microeconomic facts, yet display different degrees of nonneutrality. Although there is substantial nonneutrality in both cases, the model does not behave like a time-dependent model, as changes in the distribution of firms account for roughly a third of the short-run response of the price level to a monetary shock. We use the model to examine how aggregating firm behavior can generate flat hazards; we also find that a recently developed steady-state statistic is an imperfect guide to characterizing nonneutrality.     

Estimating anticipated and nonanticipated demand elasticities for cigarettes in Spain

This paper will test whether tobacco consumption generates addiction in Spanish people. If this is the case, can such addiction be explained in the context of rational addiction theory? Elasticities are also obtained in the cases where price variations can be anticipated or, by contrast, where they cannot. The results first reveal the addictive and rational character of Spanish tobacco consumption. With respect to estimated demand elasticities, we find the expected results, namely that the anticipated values are higher than the nonanticipated values and that the long-run effects are also higher than the short-run effects.     

Explaining House Prices in Australia: 1970–2003*

This paper aims to explain changes in real house prices in Australia from 1970 to 2003. We develop and estimate a long-run equilibrium model that shows the real long-run economic determinants of house prices and a short-run asymmetric error correction model to represent house price changes in the short run. We find that, in the long run, real house prices are determined significantly and positively by real disposable income and the consumer price index. They are also determined significantly and negatively by the unemployment rate, real mortgage rates, equity prices and the housing stock. Employing our short-run asymmetric error correction model, we find that there are significant lags in adjustment to equilibrium. When real house prices are rising at more than 2 per cent per annum, the housing market adjusts to equilibrium in approximately four quarters. When real house prices are static or falling, the adjustment process takes six quarters.     

Dynamic analysis of British demand for tourism abroad

This paper investigates how preference endogeneity, in the form of habit persistence, can affect short-run and long-run tourism expenditure decisions. The proposed model is applied to British quarterly data over the period 1979–91 and the empirical results suggest that preference endogeneity appears to have an important effect. This has policy implications for countries competing for British tourist arrivals. The differences between the short-run and long-run price and budget elasticities which are implied by habit persistence are also investigated.     

ON THE REVISITED ILLYRIAN MODEL AND PERVERSITY: THE CASE OF THE LONG-RUN1

The modified theory of the Illyrian firm was developed, in part, to correct a perversity exhibited by the traditional theory of the Illyrian firm — that output rises in response to a fall in output price or a rise in fixed costs. We show that while this revised model has solved the problem for the short-run the problem remains in the long-run, and this long-run perversity may have important policy implications for the short-run as well. We also show that the under-production problem associated with the traditional LMF is mitigated (and perhaps even reversed) in the modified LMF.     

Activist Macroeconomic Policy, Election Effects and the Formation of Expectations: Evidence from OECD Economies

We examine the explanatory power of a political—business cycle theory in which governments practice short-run policy to lessen the impact of exogenous shocks. Governments have ideological objectives with respect to macroeconomic performance, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve. The most prominent version, the rational partisan model, incorporates forward-looking expectations. This model can be compared to a competing model based on backward-looking expectations. Alesina and Roubini's recent advocacy of the rational model uses OECD data. Our reconsideration of the same data, updated to 1995, suggests that the adaptive expectations version offers a better explanation than the rational one.     

Some unpleasant currency-devaluation arithmetic in a post Keynesian macromodel

The conventional view argues that devaluation increases the price competitiveness of domestic goods, thus allowing the economy to achieve a higher level of economic activity. However, these theoretical treatments largely neglect two important effects following devaluation: (1) the inflationary impact on the price of imported intermediate inputs, which raises the prime costs of firms and deteriorates partially or totally their price competitiveness; and (2) the redistribution of income from wages to profits, which ambiguously affects the aggregate demand as workers and capitalists have different propensities to save. New structuralist economists have explored these stylized facts neglected by the orthodox literature and, by and large, conclude that devaluation has contractionary effects on growth and positive effects on the external balance. Given that empirical evidence on the correlation between devaluation and growth is quite mixed, we develop a more general Keynesian–Kaleckian model that takes into account both opposing views in order to analyze the net impact of currency depreciation on the short-run growth rate and the current account. We demonstrate that this impact can go either way, depending on several conditions such as the type of growth regime, that is, wage-led or profit-led, and the degree of international price competitiveness of domestic goods.     

Weight-based pricing in the collection of household waste: the Oostzaan case

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the effects of weight-based pricing in the collection of household waste. Using a comprehensive panel data set on all households in a Dutch municipality we estimate short-run as well as long-run price effects for the amounts of both compostable and non-recyclable household waste. We find significant and sizeable price effects, with the elasticity for compostable waste being four times as large as the elasticity for non-recyclable waste. Long-run elasticities are about 30% larger than short-run elasticities.     

Housing investment in the Netherlands

Employing Dutch market data over the period 1977:1–1994:4, estimates of two housing equations are obtained. The first equation is based on an underlying model in which profit-maximising building firms do not face adjustment costs when altering their output schedule. The second model distinguishes between short-run and long-run elasticities of supply, where firms face adjustment costs. Although the formulation of the equations can be regarded as representing the underlying long-term relationships, employing the Johansen procedure does not produce economically meaningful results. Using instrumental variables, the first model yields a supply elasticity of the order of 1.6 and the second model produces a short-run elasticity of 2.3 and a long-run elasticity of 6. Comparison of these estimates with those obtained by Topel and Rosen (Topel, R. and Rosen, S., 1988. Housing investment in the United States J. Pol. Econ. 96 (4), 718–740) in the US shows that investment seems to be more sensitive to price changes in the Netherlands than in the US.     

The multi-market analysis of a housing price transmission model

In this article, we examine dynamic relationships among housing prices from four first-tier cities in China from December 2000 to May 2010 and present an equilibrium model of housing price in multi-markets. By explicitly incorporating and modelling endogenous price series in competing housing markets, our empirical model is able to capture the existence of long-run equilibrium relationships and important short-run dynamics and price structures such as price leadership, price transmission lag and asymmetric price responses. Such multi-market analysis has generalized implications and can easily be applied to analyse the pricing dynamics among other real estate markets in the world. Our major contribution lies in two aspects. First, we employ an Error-Correction Model (ECM) with Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) to study the price dynamics in the four largest and key housing markets in China. Second, we uncover a price transmission among these housing markets in China and provide an insightful understanding of price adjustment across markets. The revealed effective price transmission and high correlation among these different markets actually is not a good thing for a stable financial system and for the defence against price bubbles in the housing market.     

The Effects of Subject Pool and Design Experience on Rationality in Experimental Asset Markets

Empirical evidence suggests that prices do not always reflect fundamental values and individual behavior is often inconsistent with rational expectations theory. We report the results of fourteen experimental asset markets designed to examine whether the interactive effect of subject pool and design experience (i.e., previous experience in a market under identical conditions) tempers price bubbles and improves forecasting ability. Our main findings are: 1) price run-ups are modest and dissipate quickly when traders are knowledgeable about financial markets and have participated in a previous market under identical conditions; 2) price bubbles moderate quickly when only a subset of traders are knowledgeable and experienced; 3) the heterogeneity of expectations about price changes is smaller in markets with knowledgeable and experienced traders, even if such traders only represent a subset of the market; and 4) individual forecasts of prices are not consistent with the predictions of the rational expectations model in any market, although absolute forecast errors are smaller for subjects who are knowledgeable of financial markets and for those subjects who have participated in a previous market. In sum, our findings suggest that markets populated by at least a subset of knowledgeable and experienced traders behave rationally, even though average individual behavior can be characterized as irrational.     

Double Bubbles in Assets Markets With Multiple Generations

We construct an asset market in a finite horizon overlapping-generations environment. Subjects are tested for comprehension of their fundamental value exchange environment and then reminded during each of 25 periods of the environment's declining new value. We observe price bubbles forming when new generations enter the market with additional liquidity and bursting as old generations exit the market and withdrawing cash. The entry and exit of traders in the market creates an M shaped double bubble price path over the life of the traded asset. This finding is significant in documenting that bubbles can reoccur within one extended trading horizon and, consistent with previous cross-subject comparisons, shows how fluctuations in market liquidity influence price paths. We also find that trading experience leads to price expectations that incorporate fundamental value.