Hurdle and Latent Class Approaches to Serial Non-Participation in Choice Models

In repeated choice modelling studies, it is often the case that individuals always select the status quo option. Although this pattern may reflect considered choices, they may also be the result of alternative decisions about whether to participate in the choice process at all. Alternative methods of dealing with this behaviour, each with associated implications for estimates of economic values, are presented. In particular we consider the alternative strategies of excluding such individuals from the data, using hurdle models to explicitly model this group, and propose the use of latent class models to endogenously allow for different preference structures. An advantage of the latent class approach is that the form of the non-participation need not be defined in advance. These approaches are considered using UK choice experiment data on food choices where the attributes include genetic modification of food. The latent class approach reveals the presence of two forms of non-participation in the data. This paper draws work commissioned by UK Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). The views presented in this paper are those of the authors alone and should not be regarded as those of DEFRA or of individuals within DEFRA.     

Do all countries grow alike?

This paper investigates the driving forces of output change in 77 countries during the period 1970–2000. A flexible modeling strategy is adopted that accounts for (i) the inefficient use of resources, and (ii) different production technologies across countries. The proposed model can identify technical, efficiency, and input change for each of three endogenously determined regimes. Membership in these regimes is estimated, rather than determined ex ante. This framework enables explorations into the determinants of output growth and convergence issues in each regime.     

Latent class count models of total visitation demand: <Emphasis Type="Italic">days out hiking in the eastern Alps</Emphasis>

We report preliminary results on the investigation of the hypothesis of the existence of latent classes in the total demand for days out in a vast section of the Italian Eastern Alps. Finite mixing is informed by socioeconomic variables and it is limited to the demand portion of a hurdle model of visitation. Gradually more flexible count models are estimated moving from the Poisson to the Negative Binomial -1 and -2, to the generalized negative binomial. The implications for expected consumers surplus, predicted visitation and choke prices are discussed for a plausible 2 class model where years of experience play an important role in class membership.      

Relating environmental attitudes and contingent values: how robust are methods for identifying preference heterogeneity?

We assess the importance and robustness of cluster analysis and latent class analysis as methods to account for unobserved heterogeneity. We provide a critique and comparison of both methods in the context of measuring environmental attitudes and a contingent valuation study involving endangered species. We find strong evidence of robustness for these methods: group characterization and assignment of individuals to groups are similar between methods, and willingness-to-pay estimates are consistent. In addition, there are significant differences in willingness-to-pay across environmental attitudinal groups, and we find that accounting for unobservable heterogeneity provides a significantly better fitting model.     

Issues on the Membership Fee of the Migrant Workers＇ Union

采用VNM效用函数对农民工加入工会的会费问题进行了研究,得出农民工意愿的会费水平与侵权概率及被侵权的工资份额正相关的结论,并指出这一会费水平使工会实现了利润最大化却对农民工没有任何助益。工会是一种非盈利的公共组织,其会费水平的确定应遵循公平会费原则。公平会费使工会的期望利润为零,而农民工的福利却得到了最大化的增进。由于不同行业具有不同的公平会费,所以在实行统一的会费水平的情况下,应逐步建立起不同行业工会之间的转移支付制度,同时政府也应对侵权问题严重的行业给予更多关注和资金支持,以利于这些行业顺利组建工会及开展维权工作。     

农民工加入工会的会费问题

采用VNM效用函数对农民工加入工会的会费问题进行了研究,得出农民工意愿的会费水平与侵权概率及被侵权的工资份额正相关的结论,并指出这一会费水平使工会实现了利润最大化却对农民工没有任何助益。工会是一种非盈利的公共组织,其会费水平的确定应遵循公平会费原则。公平会费使工会的期望利润为零,而农民工的福利却得到了最大化的增进。由于不同行业具有不同的公平会费,所以在实行统一的会费水平的情况下,应逐步建立起不同行业工会之间的转移支付制度,同时政府也应对侵权问题严重的行业给予更多关注和资金支持,以利于这些行业顺利组建工会及开展维权工作。     

Class, gender and marriage

This paper estimates the contributions of differential fecundity, social heterogeneity, assortative matching and search frictions to aggregate marriage behavior in 18th century Quebec. The reduced form estimates show that a simple random matching model of the marriage market, in which there are gains to assortative matching and women may leave the marriage market at a higher rate than men, can explain these data. The estimates also show that the marriage market was segmented by social status.     

Reflections on Social Economics in a Diverse and Open Economics

Many economists adopt a critical stance on cooperatives. One example is the claim that larger membership in cooperative banks is detrimental to performance. We re-examine this earlier finding by drawing from a richer and broader conceptual framework than used previously and conclude that in recent years, the relationship between membership and performance may be positive. In our empirical analysis, we use new data for Finnish cooperative banks and, compared to earlier work, develop an alternative measure for membership and employ improved estimation methods. A positive relationship between membership and performance in financial cooperatives is consistently found. We discuss our findings in light of an emerging body of theoretical and empirical work on cooperatives, especially for financial cooperatives, and argue that a new view of cooperatives is warranted.     

Which school systems sort weaker students into smaller classes? International evidence

We examine whether the sorting of high- and low-achieving students into classes of different sizes results in a regressive or compensatory pattern of class sizes for 18 national school systems. Sorting effects are identified by subtracting the causal effect of class size on performance from their total correlation. Our empirical results reveal strongly compensatory patterns of sorting within and especially between schools in many countries. Only the United States, which has a decentralized education finance and considerable residential mobility, exhibits regressive between-school sorting. Between-school sorting is more compensatory in systems with ability tracking. Within-school sorting is more compensatory where administrators rather than teachers assign students to classrooms.     

A convenient representation for structural vector autoregressions

Latent variables are used to rewrite a wide class of structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models. The framework is general enough to include as particular cases all just and over-identified models recently used in applied macroeconomics. The latent variables representation can conveniently be estimated with standard software packages like LISREL, EQS, LINCS and AMOS, for example. The approach is illustrated by using the models of Blanchard and Quah (1989) and Swanson and Granger (1997). First version received: October 1999/Final version accepted: August 2000     

Which type of producer organization is (more) inclusive? Dynamics of farmers’ membership and participation in the decision‐making process

Producer organizations (POs) provide benefits to smallholders by alleviating market access challenges. However, whether all farmers benefit from a PO is still a question. Limited evidence is available on whether POs are inclusive of poor farmers. Even if the poor join, do they participate in decision‐making? We conducted interviews with 595 smallholder dairy farmers in Kenya. We distinguish three groups; members of a bargaining PO, members of a processing PO and non‐members. We show that membership is related to the structural characteristics of the organization: processing POs favor membership of farmers that are wealthier, more educated and more innovative. As to participation in the decision‐making process: older, male and specialized farmers have a higher chance of being involved than poor farmers. Factors distinguishing farmer participation in decision‐making between bargaining and processing POs are highlighted. We find that a bargaining PO is more inclusive of all groups of farmers, while women and poor farmers are excluded from decision‐making in a processing PO. Our findings contribute to policymaking on inclusive development.     

The Theory of the State: The Position of Marx and Engels

Marx and Engels developed their position on the state in the context of their attempt to understand and analyze society in general, in particular, capitalist society. Over the course of five decades of examination, their argument was refined, partly due to their historic investigations, partly due to the work of others, specifically by Lewis Henry Morgan, and partly due to political developments, in particular the Paris Commune of 1871. Essentially, their concluding statement on the substance of the state was that this socially determined arrangement was constituted by the instruments of coercion, both physical and ideological, with which the dominant economic class coerced other social classes. In developing their ideas, Marx and Engels distinguished between the state and government, though they clearly saw a symbiotic relationship between these structures in class societies. In the course of their investigations, they differentiated their position from those of liberal, anarchist, and other socialist commentators.

中国股市理性预期的检验

理性预期假设在经济金融研究中占据着十分重要的地位 ,但它是否真的与人们的决策行为相一致 ,仍然是并不十分清楚的问题。本文利用中国股市的调查数据 ,对机构的短期预期行为进行了直接的检验。由于数据的分类性质 ,我们发展了解释变量包含离散数据的模型的估计方法。研究中我们没有找到支持理性预期假说的证据。文章对分类调查数据的检验给出了创新性的方法 ,文章的结论有助于人们对中国股民投资和预期行为的认识。     

中国创新型企业成长差异性:基于组织身份理论的计量分析

以组织身份理论为基础,构建了创新型企业成长性测量指标体系,通过深交所、上交所以及国泰安数据库等搜集数据,综合运用验证性因子分析、潜变量测算、GLM分析等方法测量了创新型企业成长性,从行业、规模、批次、上市年限、地区及组织性质等6个角度全面刻画了中国创新型企业成长的差异性,从产业升级、区域经济发展以及组织生命周期等视角,提出了对策建议。