THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT DEFICITS ON PERSONAL AND NATIONAL SAVING RATES

This study provides fresh evidence on the responsiveness of private consumption and, by implication, saving to government deficits. It focuses on consumption and saving from 1981 to 1989, a period during which the personal saving rate was characterized as surprisingly unresponsive to high federal budget deficits. The authors attempt to determine whether this experience is consistent with previous behavior. They also test whether this experience refutes the Ricardian Equivalence Proposition (REP), under which consumers incorporate the government's intertemporal budget constraint into their own.
The analysis involves estimating two consumer expenditure functions based on two measures of current income capable not only of explaining expenditure behavior during the postwar period but also of successfully forecasting out of sample into the 1981–1989 period. Only one model is consistent with the REP, but neither model indicates that high government deficits caused the drop in the national saving rate experienced during the 1980s. Both models predict similar short-run responses to shifts in the government deficit. The responses depend crucially on the mix of tax and expenditure changes used to achieve the deficit shift. Both consumption and saving are more responsive to changes in government expenditures on goods and services than they are to changes in taxes.     

THE TEMPORAL CAUSALITY BETWEEN FISCAL DEFICITS AND INTEREST RATES

Conventional wisdom suggests that higher government fiscal deficits cause higher (long-term) interest rates. Much empirical work—generally standard ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis—has examined this issue and has produced mixed findings. Even if these standard OLS studies conclude that deficits and interest rates are related, they do not answer the question of which came first—the higher deficit or the higher interest rate? A few studies have used Granger causality to consider the question of temporal causality, generally with short-term interest rates. Tliis paper employs the relatively new cointegration and error-correction methodology to reexamine the temporal causality between fiscal deficits and interest rates—both long term and short term. This study finds evidence that federal deficits cause the long-term interest rate.     

深入推进西部开发的战略思路研究

国家实施西部大开发战略以来,西部地区的经济、社会、基础设施、生态建设等各项事业取得快速发展。但是,西部地区的经济发展水平、居民收入水平与全国平均相比差距仍较大,公共服务领域不足等问题依然突出。文章在分析深入推进西部开发的宏观背景和评价西部开发战略实施成效的基础上,提出深入推进西部开发所需要的战略转型:从之前的"打基础"阶段逐渐转向"巩固基础"和以"富民"为核心持续促进经济发展的阶段;从之前实施的总体性政策转向更加明晰的差异化区域政策,实施"抓两头、带中间"的开发策略。同时,划分出三种政策类型区,即重点经济区、重点扶持区和重点生态功能区,以便在空间上有针对性的提出差异化的区域政策。     

基于多元逐步回归与通径分析的临澧县建设用地驱动力研究

随着城镇化进程的加快,非农建设占用土地特别是耕地日益突出,为了更好地保护有限的耕地资源,文章以临澧县为研究对象,采用多元回归分析法与通径分析相结合的研究方法,对促使地区建设用地增加驱动力进行了研究。文章通过运用SPSS统计软件,选取对影响临澧县建设用地的9个因素进行逐步回归分析,然后根据回归模型进行通径分析,确定了影响临澧县各类建设用地增长的主要驱动力,为科学地制定土地利用规划、更好地保护耕地资源提供科学依据。     

GOVERNMENT DEFICITS IN POST-KEYNESIAN THEORIES OF GROWTH AND DISTRIBUTION

This paper examines the role of the government sector in post-Keynesiantheories of growth and distribution. It shows the possibilityof reconciling two views on income distribution, present inthe post-Keynesian tradition, which the literature has consideredalternative. By following Kaldor's suggestions on the role thatmonetary and fiscal policy can play in maintaining steady growthconditions, we find that distributive variables depend bothon the rate of growth of the economy, as pointed out by Kaldorand Pasinetti, and on the money rate of interest, as suggestedby Sraffa and by the subsequent elaborations of a monetary theoryof distribution. The paper first verifies the validity of thePasinetti theorem and the dual theorem, and shows that thesetheorems do not always hold when the government sector is explicitlyconsidered. It extends the analysis to the case of the corporateeconomy and institutional distribution, clarifying limits tothe neo-Pasinetti theorem related to the assumption of an endogenousvaluation ratio in steady-growth equilibrium and to the factthat this theorem does not hold when real capital investmentis also financed through the issue of firms' bonds.     

我国海岸带经济环境与经济走势分析

在阐述海洋带资源开发和经济发展的重大战略意义的基础上,揭示了海岸带经济环境的边缘效应、枢纽效应、依托效应、扩延效应和复合效应,以及它们对经济活动的影响：并从可持续发展的观点探讨了海岸带的经济走势及其存在的问题：最后从经济发展与生态环境关系方面讨论了促进我国海岸带经济发展的若干措施。     

论博弈分析在区域政策中的运用

以博弈研究为切入点 ,运用博弈分析的方法 ,将博弈理论与区域政策相结合 ,详细阐述了区域政策的博弈论基础与博弈方法 ,并以政府与企业行为博弈为案例 ,对政府与企业的经济行为进行深入地分析论证 ,为政府和企业进行理性决策提供理论支持     

区域可持续发展的决策过程分析

区域可持续发展是实施可持续发展战略的基础,是区域发展的必然选择,而在决策过程中融入可持续发展思想是实现区域可持续发展的必要条件,本文从系统科学的角度分析了区域可持续发展的决策过程。     

民族旅游开发的影响因素分析

我国是一个多民族国家,有少数民族55个,而每个少数民族都有着自己独特的民族文化,如何开发利用好这些民族文化资源来发展旅游活动,是关系是我国（特别是西部地区）旅游业有地吸引力、有无地方特色和民族特色的重要问题。本文对影响民族旅游开发的主要因素进行了系统分析,这些因素是民族特色与民族知名度、交通条件、区域经济发展水平、客源市场、旅游地民族感知形象、有无著名风景点或风景区、空间集聚与竞争、决策者行为、当地居民态度。     

基于G-E-S-N分析的区域可持续发展模式

市场经济条件下地球上各种经济社会区域实际上是被不同属性的物品所占据或分割着,因而,区域构成又可以看成物品的空间构成。在特定自然和人文环境下交织在一起的具有不同外部性的物品及空间构成,对区域可持续发展往往起着重要支配作用。按是否具有排他性和竞争性划分物品类型,据此来探悉物品的基本空间属性和典型结构,文章提出了一种基于G-E-S-N分析,亦即物品空间外部性分析的框架方法,并以登封—少林实验区为例,初步验证了这种理论方法诠释的区域可持续发展模式。