价格支持亦或直接补贴:金砖国家农业政策改革趋向

新兴市场国家农业政策改革进程历来备受关注。利用经济合作与发展组织的生产者支持估计方法,分析金砖国家农业支持政策的结构特征可知,以市场价格支持为重心保护农业生产者、逐步加大直接补贴投入额度、注重强化农业知识创新和基础设施建设成为当前金砖国家农业政策调整的主要趋向。鉴于此,应稳步推进农产品价格支持向直接补贴转型;坚持科技兴农导向,提振农业可持续发展能力;制定差异化保护策略,提高农产品支持的针对性和有效性。     

欧盟共同农业政策与多哈回合僵局

从1968年开始,欧盟共同农业政策历经多次改革。农业谈判是多哈回合的核心议题,欧盟2003年的共同农业政策改革有助于谈判,但改革的不彻底也使得多哈谈判陷入僵局。只有解决欧盟的农业补贴和农产品关税问题,多哈回合谈判的僵局才有可能打破。     

入世后中国农业将承受考验

入世后中国农业将会有什么变化？农民的生产是否受到实质性影响？北京大学中国经济研究中心马晓野博士在《北京青年报》撰文说,９０年代中期乌拉圭回合谈判结束以前,由于发达国家一方面长期限制进口,通过筑起贸易壁垒提高了国内农产品的市场价格,另一方面对受高价格刺激和财政补贴支持而生产出来的过剩农产品的出口进行补贴,压低了国际农产品市场价格。世界农产品的生产和贸易是被扭曲的。各国的农产品政策对本国的财政造成了过大的负担,促使各国协调步骤通过乌拉圭回合的农产品贸易谈判进行农业政策改革。乌拉圭回合的农产品协议要求…     

WTO入世后中国农业将承受考验

入世后中国农业将会有什么变化?农民的生产是否受到实质性影响? 北京大学中国经济研究中心马晓野博士在<北京青年报>撰文说,90年代中期乌拉圭回合谈判结束以前,由于发达国家一方面长期限制进口,通过筑起贸易壁垒提高了国内农产品的市场价格,另一方面对受高价格刺激和财政补贴支持而生产出来的过剩农产品的出口进行补贴,压低了国际农产品市场价格.世界农产品的生产和贸易是被扭曲的.各国的农产品政策对本国的财政造成了过大的负担,促使各国协调步骤通过乌拉圭回合的农产品贸易谈判进行农业政策改革.乌拉圭回合的农产品协议要求各成员方削减农产品关税和取消非关税措施,同时对补贴制定了严格的纪律.中国加入WTO后也要执行这些义务.     

声音

“没有达成协议比不合理协议要好。”——中国农科院农业经济研究所国际贸易研究室主任孙东升 背景：日前,世界贸易组织多哈回合谈判因为主要代表国未能就农产品的国内支持和进口关税削减等议题达成一致而宣告破裂。对此,有关方面认为,如果发达国家不能承诺实质性削减其农业出口补贴和国内支持,并给予发展中国家切实有效的特殊和差别待遇,与其达成一个对发展中国家明显不利的不合理的协议,倒不如没有达成协议。     

直接收入补贴改革与我国农业国内支持政策

引言作为通过价格干预进行的间接补贴政策的替代 ,直接收入补贴政策不仅对促进关贸总协定乌拉圭回合农业协议的达成起到了至关重要的作用①,而且近年来伴随农业协议的实施 ,许多国家更是把直接收入补贴 ,特别是与当前产量和价格脱钩的收入支付政策 ,作为国内农业支持的重要手段和改革方向。从我国情况看 ,一方面 ,农业国内支持问题在中国加入ＷＴＯ谈判中曾经是一个难点问题 ,即使在加入ＷＴＯ后 ,它也将是各方关注的焦点问题 ;另一方面 ,国内粮食流通领域价格支持的低效率和高成本暴露出的弊端也越来越明显。因此 ,遵循国际农业支持与补贴…     

多哈回合“蓝箱”政策改革对中国农业国内支持的影响

“蓝箱”政策改革是多哈回合农业谈判的重要内容,将对各国的农业国内支持产生不同程度的影响。利用“假设削减方案”的研究方法,本文模拟了“蓝箱”政策改革对中国总体扭曲性支持（OTDS）和最大扭曲性支持（MTDS）的影响,并与主要的利益相关者美国、欧盟、日本、加拿大和巴西进行了对比。本文研究表明：执行期结束时,中国OTDS承诺水平为261．9亿美元,欧盟为152亿美元,美国和日本分别为96．4亿美元和90亿美元,“蓝箱”政策改革不会给中国农业国内支持带来直接的冲击,而欧盟和美国将会受到较大影响,但拙行期结束时它们仍然能保留较大的扭曲性支持空间。OTDS削减效果要好于MTDS,仅要求对“蓝箱”进行封项而免于削减对扭曲性支持的限制效果比较有限。     

农业补贴与反补贴制度演进研究

农业补贴是当今世界许多国家和地区,尤其是发达国家和地区普遍采取的旨在保护和发展农业的重要政策。在国际贸易实践中,农业补贴不仅扭曲了世界农产品贸易的价格机制,而且事实上也成为贸易保护主义的工具。为建立一个公正的、以市场为导向的国际农产品贸易体系,各国在关贸总协定框架下开始了农产品的市场准入和减少农业补贴的多边谈判,并在乌拉圭回合上达成了《农业协议》,将农产品贸易纳入多边贸易体制框架。     

WTO农业谈判与中国农业政策实践

农业政策是多哈回合的核心谈判议题之一。农业谈判结果对于多边贸易体制的稳定、经济全球化的进程、贸易自由化等给各成员国带来的福利具有极其重要的意义。作为世界上最大的发展中国家,中国农业政策所受到的影响更是引人注目。     

卷首语

WTO多哈回合谈判已于2005年全面中止,各方在削减农业国内支持上不能达成一致,是造成这一轮谈判陷入僵局的重要原因之一。正是因为如此,认真研究削减农业国内支持对WTO各成员农业的影响,从而找到各方都能接受的方案,在目前的情势下有     

Modeling and Extrapolating Wheat Producer Support Using Income and Other Factors

Using wheat market support data from 55 countries for 1961–2011 from the World Bank Agricultural Distortion database, we develop a fixed effect model that shows a more complicated, nonlinear relationship between income and wheat support and its components than previously realised. We find that income generally has a greater effect on border market price support than on domestic price support. Moreover, the difference between these types of support is greater for net importers than for net exporters and has increased with the URAA or WTO accession. Holding other variables constant, the wheat support level of China, driven mainly by border market price support, is projected to rise with future income growth. Meanwhile, Japan is projected to maintain its high level of support, while the US and EU are projected to maintain their lower levels of support. These results are relevant in the context of multilateral trade negotiations, arguing against a narrow focus on past or current policy profiles and for long‐run analyses that might mistakenly rest on the inconsistent assumptions of constant agricultural policies against the backdrop of rising incomes.     

Impacts of agricultural price support policy on price variability and welfare: Evidence from China's soybean market

China is a predominant soybean importer; thus, its domestic soybean policies have a large impact on world soybean market dynamics. We develop the first aggregate structural econometric model of China's soybean market and link it to the rest of the world (ROW), which allows us to analyze the impacts of China's soybean price support policy that ran from 2008 to 2013. We investigate the impacts of China's policy on the variability of their domestic and world soybean prices, and adopt a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the effects on distributional and aggregate welfare. Our results indicate: (a) after China's soybean price support policy, price transmission elasticity decreases, China's domestic price variability decreases, and world price variability increases; (b) China's producer surplus increases, consumer surplus decreases and the net welfare change in their domestic market is negative; and (c) although soybean exporting countries in the ROW experience significant welfare gains, the world net welfare change is negative.     

价格支持、政策调整及粮食市场波动

目的 为了估计价格支持政策对不同粮食品种期现货价格波动的直接影响,实证分析和比较了政策及其调整对粮食期现货价格波动实施效果的影响,为深化粮食价格形成机制改革提供一定的理论参考和实证支撑。方法 文章利用稻谷、小麦、玉米和大豆的现货与期货价格日数据,将政策以虚拟变量的形式引入GARCH模型实证分析最低收购价政策、临时收储政策及其调整对平抑粮食期现货市场波动的作用。结果 价格支持政策对粮食价格波动产生了显著影响,最低收购价政策能够明显降低稻谷和小麦现货市场的波动程度,但对期货市场波动的作用则相反;玉米和大豆临时收储政策的取消导致现货市场波动性提高,而对期货市场波动的影响存在差异。结论 价格支持政策具有降低价格波动的作用效果,政策调控效果与实施品种的国内供求及市场形势、国内外市场的联系程度密切相关,政策的完善还需关注对期货市场波动的影响。     

Economy-wide reform and agricultural recovery: Observations of economic Darwinism among transition economies

The fitness of an economy and its prospects for continued prosperity will be measured and determined by its robustness and its ability to adapt to changing circumstances. Some countries in transition are adapting much more easily than others to rapid changes in the orientation of their economy, the common objective of which is to achieve economic growth through the adoption of a range of characteristics generally associated with a market economy. Economic growth does not have to be very fast, but it must be efficient and sustainable. Policy adjustments must address political economy concerns, while seeking to achieve macroeconomic equilibrium and price stabilization, competitiveness, efficiency and flexibility, and the protection of the living standards of the most vulnerable population The process of agricultural sector reform will be determined both by economy-wide policies and sector-specific policies. This paper first outlines a taxonomy of the objectives of agricultural sector reform, and then discusses the way in which indirect price interventions (specifically exchange rate and interest rate policies, expansive fiscal policies and industrial protection policies), influence agricultural growth. Lessons of experience drawn from the UNDP/World Bank Trade Expansion Program structural and sectoral adjustment operations in Poland, and the cases of New Zealand and Chile are employed to illustrate not only the constraints that countries face in this regard, but also in identifying targets for further action. The third section presents what is called the architecture of incentives for agriculture'. In defining a strategy of agricultural sector reform, experience has shown that a structure of incentives can be developed that creates an environment ripe for agricultural growth-incentives relating, for example, to taxation, prices, foreign investment, privatization and demonopolization, decentralization and institutional reform. Special considerations that will require additional attention by policy-makers outside of this structure include the maintenance of GATT-legal principles in trade policies, issues relating to tariffication (including concerns about price risk management, food supply, and the role of food aid), input and credit subsidies as a means to correct for market failures, and the role of regional trading blocks in world trade.     

PORTUGAL ON THE BRINK OF EUROPE: THE CAP AND PORTUGUESE AGRICULTURE

Portuguese policy-makers assumed an active interest in agricultural sector development after the 1974 Revolution. However, the policy instruments used-output price supports, input subsidies, land market regulations, and agricultural credit programmes-have done little to facilitate technical or structural change in much of the sector. This pattern of development may have adverse medium-term impacts on agriculture, because for most commodities, accession to the CAP will substantially reduce farm profitability. If Portugal is to avoid sharp declines in income for a sector that is already relatively low in income terms, reform of factor market policies and investment in research and development are essential.     

日本与欧美农业环境支持政策对中国的启示

农业政策中与环境相关的支付政策越来越多。发达国家将WTO绿箱政策、农业直接支付政策与农业环境支持政策结合起来,这样既可以从根本上解决农业生产所带来的安全问题,也可以加深消费者对相关政策的理解与支持,同时从产业链的上游解决食品安全及农业的可持续发展问题。欧盟的Greening政策和日本实施的农业直接支付政策均以农户遵守农药化肥及农业废弃物处理的相关规范为前提,通过合理使用肥料及各种防治措施从不同程度上达到农业可持续发展、农业的多功能性及降低温室气体排放的目的,并由此获取政府的支持。文章通过对发达国家,特别是与中国农业形态类似的日本农业环境政策取向的分析及与欧美相关政策比较分析,认为中国首先应该完善循环农业的相关法律法规和标准,加强对农民的培训以及明确其应遵守的基本义务,对采取环境友好型农业生产方式的农民给予支持。     

A FORMAL APPROACH TO AGRICULTURAL POLICY

Two of the major objectives of UK agricultural policy are the need to save imports and to effect a transfer of income to the farm sector. The paper presents a way of comparing the cost by alternative means of price support. The wheat market is used as an example. The deficiency payment policy is seen to be more efficient as a means of income transfer than a variable levy-threshold price scheme or a minimum import price programme, though the main difference is in the incidence of the burden. The minimum import price is inefficient relative to the other two policies if the objective is to save foreign-exchange. When the effects on markets using wheat us an input item are considered, the deficiency payment policy becomes far superior to the others in terms of cost. It is pointed out that a single policy cannot achieve both objectives satisfactorily, and a possible solution using a mixed policy is suggested.     

中国与“一带一路”国家农产品贸易的竞争性与互补性研究

［目的］文章基于UNCOMTRADE数据库和SITC,Rev3商品分类方法,结合中国与沿线国家农产品贸易现状与趋势,从总体、分区域、分种类3个方面判断了2000—2017年中国与沿线国家农产品贸易现状及特征。［方法］依次计算四种实证测度指数（RCA指数、TCI指数、TII指数、GL指数）,分析了中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的竞争性和互补性。［结果］（1）中国与沿线国家农产品贸易发展迅速但中国一直处于贸易逆差的地位,贸易逆差呈N型趋势;（2）中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的集中度较高,主要集中在个别区域和几种农产品上,东南亚依然是最大的贸易市场同时产品市场结构发生改变;（3）中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的竞争性和互补性并存,但互补性明显更强,比较优势差异明显,双方以产业间贸易为主。［结论］中国与“一带一路”沿线国家应抓住新机遇,加大政策支持力度加强,优化贸易结构,充分发挥各国优势,实现互利共赢。     

Does oligopsony power matter in price support policy design? Empirical evidence from the Thai Jasmine rice market

In the oligopsony market, farmers may receive low prices and policy analysis assuming perfect competition can yield serious bias results. In this paper, we estimate oligopsony power between processors and farmers and evaluate the welfare impact of the paddy pledging program (PPP), a generous price support program in the Thai Jasmine rice market, with an imperfect competition model. We develop a model that consists of rice supply equation and derived demand equation. We then simultaneously estimate these equations using system estimation methods to recover oligopsony power parameters. Finally, we use these parameters to assess the welfare impact of the price support program. Using annual panel data running from crop marketing year 2001/2002–2015/2016 and exploiting the institutional feature of the PPP, we find strong evidence of some oligopsony power, a moderate level of oligopsony price distortion, and a negative relationship between price support and oligopsony power. We also find that the PPP is inefficient but effective in income redistribution. Moreover, the program benefits both farmers and consumers. With better policymaking decisions, the PPP can be efficient by setting a suitable support price. Therefore, our results show that in the case of the Thai Jasmine rice market, the generally accepted “wisdom” about agricultural price support policy does not necessarily hold, and price support can be designed to improve the efficiency of the market.