基于自由现金流的投资组合研究

本文运用我国股市1998～2006年间的财务报表数据,选择正自由现金流、低自由现金流乘数和低财务杠杆的大公司,对其以自由现金流为基础的投资组合进行了检验。结果显示,以自由现金流为基础的投资组合回报始终优于市场指数,说明在我国股市实行基于自由现金流的投资组合是积极可行的。     

Equilibrium mean–variance reinsurance and investment strategies for a general insurance company under smooth ambiguity

This work investigates the equilibrium investment and reinsurance strategies for a general insurance company under smooth ambiguity. The general insurance company holds shares of an insurance company and a reinsurance company. The claims of the insurer follow a compound Poisson process. The insurer can divide part of the insurance risk to the reinsurer. Besides, the insurer and reinsurer both participate in the financial market and invest in cash and stock. However, the general insurance company is ambiguous about the insurance and financial risks and is an ambiguity-averse manager (AAM). The uncertainties over the insurance and financial risks are described by second-order distributions. The AAM aims to maximize the average performance of the weighted sum surplus process of the insurer and reinsurer under the mean–variance criterion and smooth ambiguity. We present the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) system for the optimization problem combining the mean–variance criterion and smooth ambiguity. In the case that the second-order distributions are Gaussian, we obtain the closed-forms of the equilibrium reinsurance and investment strategies. At the end of this work, sensitivity analyses are presented to show the economic behaviors of the AAM.     

Alpha-robust mean-variance reinsurance-investment strategy

Inspired by the α-maxmin expected utility, we propose a new class of mean-variance criterion, called α-maxmin mean-variance criterion, and apply it to the reinsurance-investment problem. Our model allows the insurer to have different levels of ambiguity aversion (rather than only consider the extremely ambiguity-averse attitude as in the literature). The insurer can purchase proportional reinsurance and also invest the surplus in a financial market consisting of a risk-free asset and a risky asset, whose dynamics is correlated with the insurance surplus. Closed-form equilibrium reinsurance-investment strategy is derived by solving the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation. Our results show that the equilibrium reinsurance strategy is always more conservative if the insurer is more ambiguity-averse. When the dependence between insurance and financial risks are weak, the equilibrium investment strategy is also more conservative if the insurer is more ambiguity-averse. However, in order to diversify the portfolio, a more ambiguity-averse insurer may adopt a more aggressive investment strategy if the insurance market is very ambiguous. For an ambiguity-neutral insurer, the investment strategy is identical to the non-robust investment strategy.     

Optimal time-consistent reinsurance and investment strategies for a jump–diffusion financial market without cash

This paper considers an optimal reinsurance and investment strategies for an insurer under mean–variance criterion within a game theoretic framework. Specially, it is assumed that the surplus process is governed by a Cramér–Lundberg model, and apart from purchasing reinsurance, the insurer is allowed to invest in a financial market with multiple assets that all can be risky, whose price processes are modeled by the jump–diffusion process. Due to the market without cash, the method of separating the variables is not viable any more. We turn to an alternative approach to solve the extended Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation, and closed-form expressions of the optimal strategies and value function are not only derived but also proved to be uniqueness. Moreover, some special cases of our model are provided and several numerical analyses for our results are presented as well. Under this criterion, different from existing literature, we find that (i) the value function is not linear but quadratic with respect to the current wealth; (ii) the optimal reinsurance and investment strategies depend on the wealth process; (iii) the parameters of risky assets(insurance market) have impacts on the optimal reinsurance(investment) policy; (iv) the safety loading of the insurer affects the optimal strategies.     

Variance-Gamma and Normal-Inverse Gaussian models: Goodness-of-fit to Chinese high-frequency index returns

In this study Variance-Gamma (VG) and Normal-Inverse Gaussian (NIG) distributions are compared with the benchmark of generalized hyperbolic distribution in terms of their fit to the empirical distribution of high-frequency stock market index returns in China. First, we estimate the considered models in a Markov regime switching framework for the identification of different volatility regimes. Second, the goodness-of-fit results are compared at different time scales of log-returns. Third, the goodness-of-fit results are validated through bootstrapping experiments. Our results show that as the time scale of log-returns decrease NIG model outperforms the VG model consistently and the difference between the goodness-of-fit statistics increase. For high-frequency Chinese index returns, NIG model is more robust and provides a better fit to the empirical distributions of returns at different time scales.     

价值投资策略在中国A股市场的可行性——基于几项财务指标的研究

根据过度反应假说,文章以中国沪深A股市场上市公司为研究样本,对价值投资策略的绩效进行分析。参考Lakonishok,Shleifer and V ishny(1994)的研究方法,文章以E/P、B/M、C/P、GS等财务指标为选股指标构造投资组合。实证结果发现,除以个别指标构造的投资组合外,价值组合之持有收益率在持有期前两年显著高于魅力组合,而在第三年则没有发现显著差异。在考虑规模效应的影响后,依然发现价值组合之持有收益率显著高于魅力组合。研究结论认为,价值投资策略在中国股票市场依然适用。     

Information flows within and across sectors in Chinese stock markets

We examine the patterns of information flows within and across sectors of the two Chinese stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen during 1994–2001. Using the generalized forecast error variance decomposition, we find a high degree of interdependence, indicating that the sectors are highly integrated and sector prices reflect information from other sectors. Industry is the most influential sector in both exchanges, while Finance in Shenzhen is the least integrated with other sectors. Implications of the findings for investors and policymakers are also discussed.     

不确定条件下旅游投资决策分析方法的对比与应用

已有的基于风险的LCCBA中的收益概率模型构建需要较多的案例数据积累,而目前我国旅游投资决策分析总体上处于起步阶段,缺少相应的数据积累。本文对比分析各种现有投资决策分析方法之后,得出基于Shackle模型的不确定条件下的旅游投资决策方法更适用于我国当前的旅游投资分析,并通过Monte Carlo仿真的方法分析了该方法的有效性。不同于基于风险的LCCBA,该方法不需构建完整的收益概率模型,仅需估算出收益分布范围,就可以客观地对投资项目进行经济性分析,因而更适用于我国当前情况下的旅游投资决策分析。     

Do U.S. macroeconomic surprises influence equity returns? An exploratory analysis of developed economies

Given the dominant role the U.S. economy plays in global trade, we explore how U.S. macroeconomic surprises affect stock markets in ten major developed economies as well as in China and India. We do not find strong enough evidence to conclude that U.S. macro shocks materially and consistently influence equity returns and volatilities in the economies studied. Consistent with previous research, it appears that only in few markets are return levels materially influenced by macro surprises generated in the U.S. Also, only a small number of macro shocks seem to be of any consistent significance. For returns levels, inflation, productivity, consumer confidence, and retail sales seem to matter. At the same time, conditional volatilities appear to be influenced by inflation, retail sales, durable goods, industrial production, consumer confidence, gross domestic product, and trade balance surprises. Finally, our exploratory analysis indicates that the degree of bilateral trade connectedness may partially explain the extent to which macroeconomic surprises are transmitted across countries.     

内地招商引资与商贸业发展地位的变迁——武汉市商贸业改革开放的回顾与启示

改革开放30年来,武汉作为最大的内地城市之一,曾一度面临边缘化,是商贸业的改革开放激活了武汉,改变了武汉,回顾内地城市招商引资与商贸业地位变迁的关系,可以深刻理解我国改革开放给内地经济发展带来的机遇与发展。     

我国衍生金融工具研究述评

在国内,理论与实务界对衍生金融工具进行了多年的研究。研究的视角主要集中于金融和财务会计两大领域;研究的内容主要关注衍生金融工具介绍、衍生金融工具监管以及衍生金融工具会计信息的披露;研究的方法以规范研究为主。文章在梳理已有研究文献的基础上对未来的研究提出了进一步的思考:研究应以资本市场为轴心,市场参与者为主体,规范研究与实证研究相结合,强化公司基于衍生金融工具的投融资研究。     

推进梧州市松节油深加工发展的对策研究

文章分析了广西梧州市发展松节油深加工的资源优势和松节油发展的前景,探讨了松节油深加工在医药保健中的具体应用及推进松节油深加工发展的主要对策。     

基于“委托—代理”理论的城市轨道交通投融资体制演进机理研究

以上海为例总结了城市轨道交通投融资体制的发展模式和演进历程,基于“委托—代理”理论建立了轨道交通投融资体制模型,利用模型分析了上海轨道交通投融资体制的演进历程,阐明了轨道交通投融资体制的演进机理和发展方向.     

以课程改革促进教学质量提高——投资分析与决策课程的教学探索

研究生课程是实现研究生教育目标的基本途径,研究生课程质量的高低将直接影响研究生科研能力及整体素质的高低。结合5年来"投资分析与决策"研究生课程教学实践,系统阐述了课程定位、教材与教学内容的选择、教学方法的探索、网络辅助教学应用、课程考核等方面的实践和经验,以期为相关课程提供借鉴。     

中国能源投资效率的测度分析

运用双边随机前沿分析方法,构建异质性双边随机模型,从内外部融资、温室气体减排等角度测度和分析中国能源投资效率。结果表明,能源工业内部融资约束和金融机构外部融资支持对能源投资具有正反两个方面的显著影响,两者的综合影响为负,这将导致能源投资往往低于最优水平。山西、陕西等资源型地区的能源投资—现金流敏感性不强,未来应以传统能源建设为主;江苏、浙江等沿海发达地区能源自给率偏低,应重点发展可再生能源。     

建设项目总工期优化的经济评判

本文运用技术经济原理对项目建设过程中的各种缩短工期方案的经济合理性之分析方法进行了探讨,有助于提高项目建设的经济效益。