Climate,weather and child health in Burkina Faso

It is now clear that anthropogenic climate change is having a negative impact on human health. In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive assessment of the impact of climatic stressors on child health in Burkina Faso. We undertake a rigorous empirical analysis of the impact of climate and weather shocks on mortality, stunting (height-for-age Z-score) and wasting (weight-for-age Z-score), using Demographic and Health Surveys, combined with high-resolution meteorological data, controlling for household and individual covariates. We find robust evidence that both lifetime and short-term exposure to high temperatures and droughts have a negative impact on child health, as do increased temperature anomalies during crop seasons, suggesting a link between climate and health through domestic food production. Income and household wealth, access to electricity, sanitation and a health facility for childbirth negate some adverse impacts of climate change. Combining our econometric estimates with updated CMIP6 scenarios, we compute policy-relevant projections of future child health. Our results show that future warming is projected to significantly increase child mortality, and share of underweight and stunted children, in all but the Paris Agreement scenario. Given the links between health, a key element of human capital, and economic growth, our findings and projections provide yet more evidence of the importance of a rapid reduction in global emissions combined with adaptation funding, if lower-income countries are to achieve poverty reduction and increasing prosperity.     

Floods,food security,and coping strategies: Evidence from Afghanistan

In this paper, we assess the long‐term effect of floods on food security (as measured by calorie and micronutrient consumption) by applying an instrumental variable approach to data from the Afghanistan National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment survey. To identify the determinants of this effect, we also estimate how floods affect per capita yearly household income and poverty status. We find that exposure to flooding during a 12‐month period decreased daily calorie consumption by approximately 60 kcal while increasing the probability of iron, vitamin A, and vitamin C deficiency by 11, 12, and 27 percentage points, respectively. Controlling for price shocks and income only marginally reduces this flood effect on food security, suggesting that impaired livelihoods (rather than price hikes) are its primary driver. We further determine that exposure to this natural disaster decreases income by about 3% and makes flood‐affected households about 3 percentage points more likely to be poor. Lastly, we show that experience of floods is strongly and significantly associated with lower diet quality and quantity, and with engaging in consumption smoothing coping strategies, such as buying food on credit and taking loans. These findings underscore the serious direct impact of floods on both diet and effective behavioral responses to such shocks while emphasizing the need for targeted micronutrient supplementation in disaster relief and food aid measures even after the period of natural disaster emergency.     

Is There Persistence in the Impact of Emergency Food Aid? Evidence on Consumption, Food Security, and Assets in Rural Ethiopia

We identify the impact of emergency food aid programs after the 2002 drought in rural Ethiopia on future welfare. Based on a difference-in-differences matching estimator, participation in food-for-work increases growth in total consumption and food consumption eighteen months after the drought. Separately, receiving free food raises growth in food consumption, but, surprisingly, negatively impacts food security. Food-for-work benefited households in the middle and upper tail of the consumption distribution, while the better-targeted free food program benefited the poorest. Evidence suggests these impacts demonstrate accumulated and persistent effects of food aid received in the first twelve months after the drought.     

Home gardens,household nutrition and income in rural farm households in Odisha,India

Home gardens have been an integral part of the recent food-based interventions aimed at stimulating changes in dietary patterns and improving nutrition. However, evidence of their effects on food security, dietary quality, child anthropometry and incomes is limited, particularly among vulnerable populations groups. Using panel data from a sample of approximately 1900 households from vulnerable population groups in Odisha, India, difference-in-differences and other econometric techniques, we analyse the effects of home gardens on food security, dietary quality, child anthropometry and income. On average, home gardens contribute to better household food security, higher dietary quality of men and women but do not contribute to higher children's dietary quality and anthropometry. Also, home gardens increase monthly per adult equivalent incomes by 37% and reduce the prevalence of poverty by 11.7 percentage points. Quantile regression results suggest that home gardens enhance food security and incomes in all quantiles, but richer farmers benefit more than poorer farmers. Overall, home gardens can enhance household food security, dietary quality of men and women, and income gains among vulnerable farming population groups, but they may not suffice to improve child dietary quality and anthropometry.     

Distress rentals and the land rental market as a safety net: contract choice evidence from Tigray,Ethiopia

Rural households in the semiarid Northern Ethiopian highlands are net buyers of food. Crop failure due to erratic and unpredictable rainfall occurs frequently and leads to food shortages and income shocks. The renting out of land may be one of the coping responses of households exposed to shocks. We developed a theoretical household model for poor landlord households capturing their contract choice response to downside production shocks. We tested econometrically whether contract choice may depend on poverty, capital constraints, production risk and random shocks. The multinomial logit model estimates show that poor households experiencing random shocks are more likely to choose fixed‐rent contracts as a distress response to shocks, suggesting that fixed‐rent contracts may be used to meet immediate needs, but at the expense of future incomes. We also found that fixed‐rent contracts are preferred when ex ante production risk is low, while sharecropping is more likely where production risk is high. Finally, we found an indication that the choice of a fixed‐rent contract as a coping response to shocks comes as a last resort after all other means of coping are exhausted.     

Does maternal employment affect child nutrition status? New evidence from Egypt

Even though maternal employment can increase family income, several studies suggest that it could have adverse consequences on children’s health. In this study, we use a nationally representative sample of 12,888 children, aged 0–5 years from Egypt to examine the impact of maternal employment on child nutritional indicators, namely: stunting, wasting, and being underweight and overweight. We adopted various estimation methods to control for observable and unobservable household characteristics in order to identify the causal effect of maternal employment. These different techniques include, propensity score matching (PSM), OLS regression with controlling for a wide range of individual characteristics, and an instrumental variable two-stage least squares (IV 2SLS) approach. Results of the PSM and OLS suggest that maternal employment is weakly associated with having a malnourished child. On the other hand, the IV 2SLS suggests a stronger and significant association between maternal employment and poor nutritional status among children.     

Landraces as an adaptation strategy to climate change for smallholders in Santa Catarina,Southern Brazil

Adapting to climate change has become a pressing and urgent issue given the alarming rapidity with which climate changes is taking place. Agriculture is strongly conditioned by climatic factors, but subsistence agriculture is particularly vulnerable because smallholders do not have adequate financial resources to adapt to climate change. Agrobiodiversity provides one option for smallholders to adapt to climate change. Landraces developed in the western region of Santa Catarina State, Brazil, are part of a deliberate strategy by smallholders to achieve a state of food sovereignty and independence from commercial sources of hybrid seed. The ability of smallholders to collectively conserve climate-adapted landraces indicates the depth of local knowledge and capability within local communities that can be drawn on to meet the future challenges of climate change.     

Food Aid, Food Prices, and Producer Disincentives in Ethiopia

Although the short-term aims of food aid are well conceived, strong concerns have been voiced regarding the long-term impacts of such aid on incentives for agricultural producers in recipient countries. This article examines the statistical link between food aid shipments and food prices in Ethiopia over the period 1996–2006. Monthly data from three markets and three commodities are used to estimate a system of seemingly unrelated regression models for food prices. Results indicate that previous year food aid shipments reduce prices in all producer and consumer markets. These effects, however, appear to be limited to the set of internationally traded commodities that are domestically marketed. A recursive regression procedure is used to identify the food aid threshold at which a negative aid effect emerges. Food aid shipments that constitute less than 10% of domestic production appear to be benign, but shipments above this level show signs of being disruptive to local markets. We use a simple policy simulation to argue that production-sensitive targeting, e.g., conditioning food aid on local food production, would help to circumvent disincentive effects.     

The linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices: a panel SVAR analysis

The major expansion of U.S. ethanol production raises concerns about the potential detrimental impacts on developing countries’ agricultural prices, farm income, and food security. To assess the sensitivity of maize prices to ethanol production, this study explores the linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices. The econometric approach, based on a panel structural vector autoregression model, captures market interdependencies and the likelihood that developing countries’ responses are both heterogeneous and dynamic. The results indicate that the U.S. ethanol market's impacts on maize prices in developing countries are heterogeneous and that coastal countries are more susceptible to U.S. economic shocks. The estimates also suggest that countries more dependent on food imports and/or receiving U.S. food aid are at a higher risk of being affected by such shocks. Overall, the results indicate that those countries with the greatest sensitivity and exposure to global agricultural commodity markets could benefit from domestic policies and international assistance, which reduce their exposure to impacts from the U.S. maize market.     

Linkages between natural gas,fertiliser and cereal prices: A note

We use structural vector autoregressions to analyse the dynamic effects of shocks to natural gas and nitrogenous fertiliser prices on three major cereal crops: maize, rice and wheat. We find that the response of cereal prices to natural gas and fertiliser price shocks has been relatively small, instantaneous and transitory. These findings suggest that crop prices may change rapidly in response to energy and fertiliser prices, even when there are no shifts in the underlying fundamentals in crop markets. Furthermore, because the effects of the shocks dissipate rather quickly, short-term measures to address swings in food prices may suffice.     

Did the 2008–2009 Food and Financial Crises Affect Child Mortality? The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa

We estimate an aggregate model of child mortality on a panel of 40 African countries over the period 1995–2007. This model is then used to assess the impact of the 2008–2009 food and financial crises on child mortality, by comparing the number of child deaths computed under a “business-as-usual scenario” with those computed under the actual 2008–2009 “crisis scenario”. According to the simulation results, the 2008–2009 food price rise and recession caused a statistically non-significant additional 27,000 child deaths. However, if the 2008–2009 changes in other determinants of child mortality are factored in, the number of child deaths declined by 15,000. This unexpected result is explained by the fact that the effects of the rise in domestic food prices and the recession were offset in most of the region by the protective effect on the under-five mortality rate of a surge in food production, and by a rise in public expenditure on and foreign aid to the health sector.     

Matching food security and malnutrition indicators: evidence from Southeast Asia

This article aims to understand the relation between household food security and individual undernutrition. The multitude of indicators available raises the question which aspects of food security are captured by the respective indicator. In our analysis, we first assess the relation between the dimensions of food security and households’ socioeconomic characteristics. Second, we examine whether household indicators detect undernutrition in children. Finally, we investigate the role of individual‐specific characteristics for child undernutrition. The analysis is based on a novel data set of 1,200 rural households from Cambodia and Lao PDR, which combines household‐ and individual‐level data. We capture household food security by three indicators including a dietary diversity score, a consumption behavior measure, and an experiential measure. Individual nutrition status is measured via anthropometric indicators. Our results show that different household‐level indicators capture fundamentally different aspects of food security. Moreover, household food security fails to explain stunting for children under five. Dietary diversity indicators, however, explain underweight in children to a small extent. We call for more research on intrahousehold allocation of food and stress the implications of our research for the design and targeting of food and nutrition support programs.     

Food supply chains during the COVID-19 pandemic

This paper provides an early assessment of the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for food supply chains and supply chain resilience. The effects of demand-side shocks on food supply chains are discussed, including consumer panic buying behaviors with respect to key items, and the sudden change in consumption patterns away from the food service sector to meals prepared and consumed at home. Potential supply-side disruptions to food supply chains are assessed, including labor shortages, disruptions to transportation networks, and “thickening” of the Canada–U.S. border with respect to the movement of goods. Finally, the paper considers whether the COVID-19 pandemic will have longer-lasting effects on the nature of food supply chains, including the growth of the online grocery delivery sector, and the extent to which consumers will prioritize “local” food supply chains.     

Food aid,food policy and the Uruguay round: implications for Bangladesh

The relationship between the effects of food aid and those of the completion of the Uruguay Round of the GATT are studied in this paper, focusing upon the food aid recipient countries, and taking Bangladesh as an illustrative example. It is argued that, among other factors, the magnitudes of these effects depend crucially on the policy environment within the food aid recipient country itself, particularly the government's policy with respect to commercial food imports. It is shown that when the quantity of Bangladesh's commercial food imports is controlled by the government, the benefits derived from food aid are smaller than when these imports are liberalised. Likewise, the negative effects that the Uruguay Round may be expected to have on Bangladesh will also he larger if commercial food imports are subject to quantitative controls than if they are liberalised. The effects the Uruguay Round will have on Bangladesh will also depend on the way food aid donors respond to the Round. If donors reduce the volumes of food aid, either because of reduced food surpluses resulting from lower agricultural subsidies, or in response to increased international food prices resulting from the Round, the losses incurred by Bangladesh will be magnified. But these effects will also depend heavily on whether Bangladesh itself participates in the liberalisations that are central to the Round itself. If it were to participate fully, the negative effects that the Uruguay Round would otherwise have on Bangladesh may be entirely offset by the gains Bangladesh would derive from its own liberalisation.     

Does indigenous and campesino traditional agriculture have anything to contribute to food sovereignty in Latin America? Evidence from Chile,Peru, Ecuador,Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico

The current challenge for world agriculture is to provide food for a growing population, within a context of environmental degradation and economic inequality. The challenge is how to produce accessible, healthy, diverse, nutritious, safe and abundant food in a way that is sustainable, allowing farmers to exert food sovereignty while at the same time addressing ecosystem conservation. The aim of this study is to explore the potential contribution of traditional agriculture to food sovereignty and also to understand the challenges that indigenous communities are facing today. Our case studies are from six Latin-American countries: Chile, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala and Mexico, where we carried out semi-structured, guided visits and field observations. Our results shed light on how traditional agricultural knowledge, techniques and practices can contribute to these issues, but also to the need of protecting and recovering the cultural and ecological heritage. There is a need to resolve public management issues, related to development investment, technological packages, cultural loss and gender. If these are not addressed, the potential contribution of ancient agricultural knowledge will fail to contribute to strengthen food sovereignty and maintain the local markets, which are also places for seed exchange, knowledge sharing and social networking.     

Farm Producers, Past and Present

The pace of technological advance in agriculture appears to have quickened since 1966 producing a dichotomy in the way agricultural products are produced. The production of agricultural commodities is being concentrated. Large farms are becoming larger and producing an increasing proportion of agricultural products. At the same time small and part-time farms are growing as a proportion of all farms, though their contribution to the economy in proportional terms is becoming smaller despite their large numbers.
Agricultural production is being concentrated among fewer, larger, more specialized operations, dependent upon purchased inputs, borrowed capital and more integrated with the food processing and distribution sectors. The benefits from such changes have been a highly productive food system, abundant supplies of quality, inexpensive food products and higher incomes for both those who farm and those who leave for non-farm employment opportunities.
Change, however, has come at a cost to the traditional structure of Canadian agriculture. For instance, a consequence has been an increase in the proportion of food being produced by farms organized as family corporations, integrated industrial corporations, family trusts and large proprietorships. Change has also meant declining opportunities and higher barriers to entry so that fewer people have the means to become established in agriculture. Greater mechanization and capitalization have meant fewer jobs in agriculture, and this in turn has meant a smaller rural population and the demise of some rural communities.
As farms become larger it becomes more difficult for subsequent generations to purchase them as the capital invested and credit requirements exceed amounts that can be paid for in one generation. The growth in organizational structures such as corporations or trusts which leave the farm business intact, beyond the life of the proprietor, seems in-evi table.     

Food,farmers, and the future: Investigating prospects of increased food production within a national context

With international food price shocks in 2008 and 2011, food security became a political priority in many countries. In addition, some politicians have recently adopted a more nationalistic stance. Against that background, this paper critically investigates the prospects of increased food production within a national context. We use a small, high-income country, Norway, as an empirical case. In 2012, the government set a goal of increasing agricultural food production by 20% by 2030. We ask: 1) How has food production in Norway developed before and after the goal was set? 2) What plans do farmers have, and what do they regard as the main obstacles to increased production? We apply a mixed method combining public statistics, a survey, and interviews. We analyze four production systems: a) milk; b) grass-based meat; c) combined pig and grain; and d) grain. These systems represent around 80% of the domestically consumed food produced on farms in Norway. Since 2000, aggregate food production has had a slight downward trend with periodic fluctuations. Based on a political economy approach, we identify land and labor as the most limiting factors. Capital is less of a hindrance and offers a potential for increased production. Farmers have modest expectations of increased production, though. This outlook resonates with the strong integration of agriculture into the wider economy, at both micro and macro levels, making it challenging to implement new policies and change farm practices on a broad basis. Increases in some specific products, however, are realistic.     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

Shocks to food market systems: A network approach

In order to better understand how cross-border price shocks are transmitted to domestic food markets, we augment an error correction model with a network approach and apply it to Tanzania. We show the following. First, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania's largest city and port, is not a significant influence. Second, demand shocks emanate primarily from border markets that may serve as conduits for informal trade. Third, market linkages differ considerably across seasons and commodities. Fourth, prices in areas with high production potential are especially sensitive to systemic shocks. More broadly, we show that a network approach in conjunction with time series analysis can enhance our understanding of the origins and channels through which shocks are transmitted to food markets.     

Drivers of food price in China: A heterogeneous panel SVAR approach

In this paper, we examine the effects of shocks in agricultural output, production material price and production price on China's food price using panel data of 26 provinces for the period 2004 Q1–2015 Q4. Employing a heterogeneous panel structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, we identify the causal flows between the endogenous variables via directed acyclic graphs method. The empirical results from impulse response functions and variance decompositions suggest sizeable cross‐province variations. The main driving force of food price is the price inertia shock, rather than the agricultural output or the vertical chain of price transmission shocks. The findings support the view that price expectation is the key shifter of food price. Moreover, the shocks in the vertical chain of price transmission are only weakly linked to food price. Our findings are robust to an alternative panel SVAR model identified via Cholesky decomposition.