Preference erosion and market access liberalization: the African dilemma in multilateral negotiations on agriculture

African countries, especially sub-Saharan ones, have conflicting interests in multilateral negotiations on agriculture. On the one hand, their economies may be boosted by the price effect induced by agricultural liberalization. On the other hand, multilateral tariff cuts will result in the erosion of preferential margins. Based on an original methodology, using CGE modeling, detailed tariff calculations and predictive analysis, this paper investigates the potential impact of current multilateral negotiations on the value of preferences for African agriculture. It estimates the preferential value to USD 0.7 billion of welfare and USD 1 billion of exports to the Triad markets. Furthermore, it highlights the “cruel dilemma” African countries face in current negotiations, as they gain from ambitious trade liberalization, despite the large preferential erosion, while they suffer from noticeable trade and welfare losses under conservative scenarios.

The state of the market and the contrarian strategy: evidence from China's stock market

Using the most comprehensive weekly dataset of ‘A’ shares listed on the Chinese stock market, this paper examines short-term contrarian strategies under different market states from 1995–2010. We find statistically significant profits from contrarian strategies, especially during the period after 2007, when China (along with other countries) experienced an economic downturn following the worldwide financial crisis. Our empirical evidence suggests that: (1) no significant profit is generated from either momentum or contrarian strategies in the intermediate horizon; (2) after microstructure effects are adjusted for, contrarian strategies with only four to eight weeks holding periods based on the stocks’ previous four to eight week's performance generate statistically significant profits of around 0.2% per week; (3) the contrarian strategy following a ‘down’ market generates higher profit than those following an ‘up’ market, suggesting that a contrarian strategy could be used as a shelter when the market is in decline. The profits following a ‘down’ market are robust after risk adjustment.     

Rise of the gold market in China: liberalisation and market development

The Chinese gold market is rapidly rising to global prominence in the recent decades. The paper reviews the history of the gold market in China and its liberalisation process amid the country’s opening to the outside world. Details of the current market structure and its main business are presented. Global impacts of the rise of the Chinese gold market are discussed.     

The role of market imperfections in the relationship between housing prices and household credit: Evidence from Taiwan

Given the credit market imperfections in Taiwan, this paper examines the threshold effects in the adjustment towards the long‐run equilibrium relationship between housing prices and household credit. The empirical findings verify the potential for regime shifts in the dynamically adjusted relationship between housing prices and household credit. Only when the benefits cover the cost of market imperfections, do housing and credit markets trigger convergence to their long‐run equilibrium. The hidden effect of the limitations on housing and credit markets is to raise the thresholds of the self‐adjustment mechanisms. As a result, economic boom‐bust cycles will be more severe and increase the fragility of financial sectors.     

Effects of farm credit access on agricultural commercialization in Ghana: Empirical evidence from the northern Savannah ecological zone

The purpose of this paper is to investigate how farmers' access to credit affects agricultural commercialization in the northern Savannah ecological zone of Ghana. The study uses data from the Ghana Feed the Future baseline survey involving a total sample of 2,962 farm households. The study employs endogenous switching regression for ordered outcomes to account for endogeneity and self‐selection bias in the decision to access credit. The results from the estimations revealed that education, age, nonfarm business equipment, multiple crop production, and group membership are the variables influencing farmers' access to credit. Agricultural commercialization is determined by gender, age, marital status, household size, farm size, nonfarm business equipment, means of transport, group membership, assets index, multiple crop production, and location. In terms of causal effect, the results show that credit access stimulates higher commercialization. Thus policies that enhance farmers' access to credit are more likely to be successful in getting them to commercialize.     

Sociopolitical instability,volatility, and the bid-ask spread: Evidence from the free market for dollars in Poland

This paper provides empirical evidence that the weekly bid-ask spread in the Polish free foreign exchange market is heavily affected by the intensity of sociopolitical unrest in this country. A GARCH model is estimated to study the volatility of the free market for dollars in Poland from the third week of October 1988 to the fourth week of January 1990. This period is interesting and important because it includes social and political events under two different government regimes. Empirical evidence suggests that significant sociopolitical turmoil appears to increase the volatility of the market and consequently create substantial changes in the spread. The results of this paper may represent valuable information for other reforming countries.     

Oil price uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from the Chinese bond market

This paper explores the impact of oil price uncertainty affects the cost of debt in China. By analyzing the bond data from 2008 to 2019 in China, we find that oil price fluctuation boost bond offering spread, denoting that oil price uncertainty may increase the cost of debt. This increase is likely due to higher default risks resulting from the heightened oil price uncertainty. Moreover, non-state-owned firms and those in the energy industry are more susceptible to the effects of oil price volatility. Our findings also reveal an asymmetric effect of oil price uncertainty on the cost of debt, with a stronger impact observed from positive uncertainty compared to negative uncertainty. This study contributes to the current understanding of the ways in which oil price uncertainty impacts the cost of debt in an emerging country.     

供应链的创新溢出效应研究——来自A股市场的经验证据

从创新溢出视角出发,以2008—2019年A股市场非金融类上市公司为样本,利用双向固定效应模型实证考察供应链的创新水平差异对企业创新的影响.结果发现供应链的创新水平与企业创新呈显著正相关关系,说明企业的供应商与客户的创新水平越高,企业自身创新水平也显著更高.上述结论在进行倾向得分匹配(PSM)控制内生性问题后依然成立.据此提出有关进一步推动供应链创新与应用、强化供应链创新溢出的策略建议.     

光伏产业链节点的技术与经济特征分析——以江苏省为例

光伏产业链分为上游晶体硅太阳能电池产业链与下游集成销售安装服务应用产业链,光伏产业发展不仅要求光伏上下游产业链的协同,而且要求产业链节点之间的协同。文章分析标明:一定时期内上游光伏产业链对资本的吸引力强于下游,低端技术节点对资本的吸引力强于高端技术节点;在国内光伏市场不健全条件下,目的在于通过低端技术节点量的积累以实现高端技术节点水平质的提升的政府激励措施会导致国内技术升级效应的漏出。     

Short selling and stock prices with regime switching in the absence of market makers: The case of Japan

This paper investigates the relation between short selling and stock price at an aggregated market level. In order to study the differential impact of market microstructure on short selling, the data from Japanese stock markets are used. Both traditional regression and Markov switching models are used to compare Japanese results to those of U.S. and to admit non-stationary relation between short selling and stock price, respectively. Particularly, relatively long period (1978–2002) of analysis including bullish and bearish periods gives a good testable bed for studying the effect of short selling on stock price according to market condition. The empirical findings reveal that percentage change of short interests has a statistically significant positive relation with stock returns. It gives regulators policy implication that short selling is not a destabilizing activity, but an acceptable form of trading even in the absence of market makers. And short selling information cannot be used as an indicator for predicting future stock markets.     

A double-edged sword: the impact of institutions and political relations on the international market expansion of Chinese state-owned enterprises

This study examines the interaction of three factors, the involvement of the home country government, of host country institutions and of bilateral political relations, as they affect the post-entry market expansion of Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in emerging, developing and developed countries. This study employs the case study method. The findings show that home country government involvement can either support or constrain SOEs’ subsequent market expansion. In emerging and developing countries, underdeveloped institutions create difficulties which can deter the market expansion of Chinese SOEs. In developed host countries, the challenges associated with unfamiliar institutions can be overcome through experiential learning. The political relations between the host country and China may influence the impact of institutions in the host country on the market expansion of Chinese SOEs.     

Contrasting paradigms: segmentation and competitiveness in the formation of the chinese labour market

An urban labour market is in the process of being formed in China. The objective of this paper is to analyse the stage that it has reached. A 1999 household survey is used to investigate whether the labour market has three tiers comprised of recently retrenched and re-employed urban workers, non-retrenched urban workers, and rural–urban migrants. It tests whether wage levels and structures differ across these categories of worker. Panel data are used to model the evolution of the wage structure and, specifically, the impact of retrenchment and re-employment. The results indicate that non-retrenched urban workers enjoy a wage premium, although migrants receive similar returns to education. Re-employed workers receive no return to education and appear to have lost out on the wage rises enjoyed by the non-retrenched. There is evidence to suggest that the urban labour market is segmented into these categories, which differ in their openness to market competition. The urban labour market has a long way to go before it is fully competitive.     

Pricing policy and quality upgrading in the Swedish car market: Do import surveillance and exchange rate instability matter?

Recent years have seen an increased use of quantitative restrictions in passenger car trade. In this paper we investigate the impact of import surveillance on product and pricing policies of car manufactures in the Swedish car market over the period 1986–1989. Evidence is found of substantal upgrading in Japanese (and German) car supply. The evidence on changes in quality-adjusted prices is less conclusive. In addition it is found that exchange rate changes were not passed through to car prices.     

OFDI and stock returns: Evidence from manufacturing firms listed on the Chinese A-shares market

Using data for manufacturing firms listed on the Chinese A-shares market over the 2000−16 period, this paper studies the impact of outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) on stock returns using the propensity score matching. It shows that when firms carry out OFDI for the first time, they have to deal with the risks of the overseas market; therefore, the OFDI firms show significantly higher returns. Furthermore, OFDI affects stock returns through the risk channel rather than the diversification channel; the risks OFDI firms are exposed to are mainly demand and political risks. OFDI firms face different risks than non-OFDI firms, thus investors can obtain diversification benefits by purchasing stocks of OFDI firms. In addition, investors can make diversified investments based on the seven dimensions of the nature of firms and OFDI to increase the opportunity to obtain stock returns. For firms, they can conduct on-site inspections before conducting OFDI, becoming familiar with the host country market, laws and regulations. Firms should try to choose politically and economically stable countries to invest in.     

Bank dependence and financial constraints on investment: Evidence from the corporate bond market paralysis in Japan

This paper investigates whether firms are able to substitute bank loans for public debt when the latter become less available to firms. To do so, this paper utilizes the 2008 financial crisis and its impact on Japanese markets as a natural experiment. Because the Japanese banking sector remained functional while the corporate bond markets were paralyzed, the data from Japan during this period provide us with an ideal environment to examine this hypothesis. I specifically examined whether firms with large holdings of corporate bonds maturing in FY2008 were financially constrained, by comparing the changes in their capital investment expenditures and borrowing conditions with those of bank-dependent firms. The main empirical results indicate that (1) firms with large holdings of corporate bonds maturing in FY2008 did not reduce investment expenditures; (2) instead, they exhibited higher increments in bank loans; and (3) firms that maintained relatively close bank-firm relationships had greater access to bank loans with low borrowing costs. These findings demonstrate that Japanese firms were able to substitute bank loans for public debt during the crisis and imply that the Japanese banking sector worked efficiently to replace public debt markets during the crisis.     

National and international market integration in the 19th century: Evidence from comovement

This paper analyzes relative wheat price fluctuations to investigate market integration among 72 European and US cities. Applying a Dynamic Factor Model, which has seldom been used in market integration analysis, prices are decomposed into international, national and local components. Thus, national and international market integration are identified by a statistical restriction, and results for each single market are obtained. The first result is that globalization has accelerated faster in the first than in the second half of the 19th century, putting the post-1850 transport revolution into perspective. The USA integrated only later into the European market, discounting the role of the “grain invasion” for trade history. I also show that the European nations that turned protectionist after 1880 reduced the impact of foreign shocks, while free traders fully integrated into the international economy.     

The value of active politicians on supervisory boards: evidence from the Berlin stock exchange and the parliament in interwar Germany

We provide the first overview over all political connections of firms via current Members of Parliament on supervisory boards and board of directors listed on the Berlin stock exchange in the 1920s. In contrast to anecdotal evidence, which suggest that political connections were expected to have a positive effect on firms’ performance, an event study based on the election in December 1924 and May 1928 shows only little evidence that a political connection via a newly elected or re-elected politician generated value. These results complement previous research emphasising that political connections might have mattered less in democracies.     

贸易开放与地区经济增长：基于市场一体化的门槛效应考察

推动全方位、多层次、高水平对外开放,是中国经济过去四十多年实现高速增长的重要引擎。在对外开放不断深化的同时,以市场一体化为导向的国内体制机制改革也在稳步进行,其与对外开放一脉相承并相互促进。本文从市场一体化演进视角考察贸易开放对地方经济增长的非同质性作用。研究显示,贸易开放对地方经济增长的影响依赖于当地市场化发展的进程。当地区市场一体化发展水平高于特定门槛值时,开放机制对经济增长会有更为显著的促进作用;当市场化发展水平较低时,开放机制的作用发挥将受到制约而不能很好地显现,异质性门槛模型的估计结果证实了这一点。进一步研究还发现,区域间推进市场一体化发展的统筹还存在显著的正向空间外溢效应,地方经济增长能够从区域联动的市场一体化发展布局中显著获益。本文的研究意味着,要更好地发挥对外开放对经济增长的促进,不仅要有效提升对外开放的质量,还应立足于整合不同地区市场一体化演进的结构差异,加强区域之间要素市场建设和经济互联,培育并完善与经济发展有关的共同市场秩序和制度环境,以求开放机制的政策红利能更好地发挥其潜在效用。     

Cultural policy and urban regeneration in Western European cities: lessons from experience, prospects for the future

This paper reviews the uses of cultural policy and planning as tools of urban regeneration in western European cities. Following a brief assessment of the evolution of European cultural policy in recent decades, the paper studies the origins and development of the European City/Capital of Culture programme and explores the experience of cities considered to have succeeded in re-imaging and regenerating themselves through cultural activity and special events. The paper ends with a reflection on the notion of cultural planning and its potential as an integrated alternative to urban cultural policy, and offers recommendations for further development within the UK context.