THE HOUSING MARKET AND THE RECOVERY

In the run up to the key Christmas period the talk is again of renewed weakness in consumer spending. Last month saw the volume of retail sales rise by only 0.1 per cent, and the annual rate of growth has now slowed to a shade over 3 per cent, down from its peak of 4.4 per cent back in July this summer. This weakness in consumer demand is also clearly being reflected in retail prices; with retailers discounting their prices to boost sales, headline inflation fell to 1.4per cent in October, while the underlying rate dropped to its lowest level for 25 years. This forecast release looks at the wider determinants of consumer spending, especially developments in the housing market. We argue that the slowdown in high street sales is a forbear of sluggish growth to come and that lower interest rates, if they materialise, are unlikely to have much of an impact. While consumer spending has been the driving force out of recession, for the recovery to be sustained, requires that exports and investment spending now take up the running.     

THE HOUSING MARKET IN 1993

What hope is there of a recovery in the housing market in the rest of 1993? Jonathan Morris, of economic consultant Lombard Street Research, analyses the influences that will affect the housing market.     

“三旧”改造系列之时代样本：广州：当保障房“邂逅”三旧改造

＂旧城改造＂既是一件＂利在千秋万代＂的大事,又是一道复杂难解的题。 题虽难解,但很多城市却已在用自己的实践与智慧在求解答案。 广州、佛山、成都……在一个个时代样本的背后,是旧城改造的几大强有力的＂法宝＂：规划、法制、民本、市场、保护、创新。     

HOW USEFUL IS THE ECONOMIC MODEL OF CRIME IN ASSISTING THE WAR AGAINST TERRORISM?

This article considers whether the economic model of crime can be applied to terrorist activity. It concludes that the model does explain both secular and religiously motivated terrorism: policy-makers wishing to reduce terrorist activity should aim at devising policies which increase costs and/or decrease benefits to change terrorist incentives. The 'war' should continue as long as the probable costs to society incurred by terrorist activity are greater than the costs of abatement.     

BRITISH SOCIAL HOUSING AND THE VOLUNTARY SECTOR

Housing for the poor was a thriving part of the voluntary sector in the nineteenth century, providing thousands of homes through hundreds of societies without subsidy. It was undermined by state action which has effectively driven other providers from the field.     

THE SIZE OF HOUSING SUBSIDIES IN CHINA*

Inexhaustible, strong demand for housing, which is generated from the current low rents and the work-unit-distribution housing system, has caused permanent housing shortages in China's urban sector. It is also one of the main sources of China's cost-push inflation. The transition from public to private saving, which is included in current housing reform, is the only way to solve the housing problems facing the country. Calculation of the size of housing subsidies is the very foundation of any housing reform program. Based on my estimates, the annual housing subsidy per woker expanded 8.6 limes during the period from 1978 to 1988, increasing at an anual rate of 24.1%. Total housing subsidies expanded 12.4 times, rising at an annual rate of 28.6%. Relative to GNP, the housing subsidies grew from 1.3% to 4.2% during the period. The rapid expansion of housing subsidies has several significant policy implications for China's economy. These include the need for reappraising real worker income identifying the enlarged portion of revenue in kind, and recalculating housing consumption.     

THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT HANSHIN-AWAJI EARTHQUAKE ON THE LOCAL HOUSING MARKET

The Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake destroyed a huge number of houses and caused housing problems in the disaster area. This paper investigates the influence of the earthquake on the related housing market, mainly in terms of changes in house prices and housing rents, and analyzes the machanism of the changes. Empirical results by Hedonic analyses indicate the influences are different between house prices and housing rents and also between the disaster district and the surrounding area. Those differences are explained by the factors of the earthquake that would affect the housing market, such as decrease in income, diversity of damage among the districts and others.     

TRANSITION OF THE HOUSING SECTOR IN THE EAST CENTRAL EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

The fall of socialism in 1989–1990 led to the end of the East European housing model, which was based on the limitation of property rights, extensive central planning and politically determined allocation of subsidies. This paper aims to present a clear picture of the current housing situation through a reliable information system. The major observation is that in the countries studied, the housing situation is relatively good; it is not housing shortage, but die inefficiency of the institutional system, affordability and deferred maintenance that are the main problems. Based on the idea of "enabling policies" - policies that facilitate the activities of the key stakeholders in the sector while providing an essential element of the social safety net - the paper establishes the goals and objectives that should guide the formulation of policy and institutional reforms within the sector, and defines priorities for actions to be taken by national and local governments and by international agencies in support of governments.     

THE USE AND ABUSE OF MARKETS IN HOUSING POLICY

This paper argues that, despite its rhetoric in support of markets, government does not understand how markets work, but is rather trying to use certain aspects of markets to control social housing. The paper looks at three areas: first, the idea of private finance and how this is used by government as a form of public policy; second, the notion of risk and whether it actually occurs in social housing; and third, the contention that government is incapable of appreciating the manner in which markets operate because it only wishes to provide safe options and so cannot countenance real choice and competition.     

THE STOCK MARKET, HOUSING AND CONSUMER SPENDING: A SURVEY OF THE EVIDENCE ON WEALTH EFFECTS

Abstract.  This paper examines the time-series and micro-econometric evidence on the relationship between stock and house prices and consumer spending. The time-series studies distinguish between short-run and long-run links between consumption, income and wealth. They allow us to identify which variables adjust to restore the long-run equilibrium in the case of a shock, and to determine the time taken by the adjustment process. The micro-econometric literature improves our understanding of the link between wealth and expenditure and distinguishes among the alternative hypotheses – of direct wealth effect, common causality and collateral channel – that have been proposed to explain this relationship. The relationship between wealth and consumer spending appears to be strong, but there is some disagreement as to its size and nature. Furthermore, there appear to be some important differences across countries, which should be allowed for by policy makers when appraising the policy implications of a change in asset prices.     

A REVIEW OF THE KOREAN HOUSING MARKET AND RELATED POLICIES

Essentially an update of Renaud (1989). K.Y. Kim (1991), and K.H. Kim (1993), this paper introduces the Korean housing market and policies, but from a distinct perspective. Housing conditions in Korea have dramatically improved both in terms of quantity and quality over the past 35 years. The market has mainly accommodated buyers of new houses, while ignoring or even sacrificing needs of low income households. This is the result of government control of the market mostly by regulations on new for-sale houses rather than by budgetary or financial resources. Both the weakness and strength of this housing supply system were clearly revealed by the price hikes in the late 1980s and by the mass production of houses, which finally stabilized the market As for major current policy problems, the suggestions put forth in this paper emphasize fewer regulations and more involvement of the private sector.     

THE ROLE OF TENURE SECURITY IN HOUSING SELF-IMPROVEMENT: A CASE-STUDY OF SURABAYA, INDONESIA

Some developing countries are tapping into the opportunities offered by self-help gradual improvement of houses in order to relieve the environmental problems besetting their urban areas. For decisionmakers and planners it is important to know the factors that can entice slum dwellers to improve their houses. Using Indonesian data, this paper has tested and verified the assumption that tenure security is a powerful factor that can entice slum dwellers to internalize the benefits from neighborhood environmental quality improvement.     

THE DESIGN OF DIRECT DEMAND SUBSIDY PROGRAMS FOR HOUSING IN LATIN AMERICA

Traditional Latin American housing programs, which have used below-market interest rates to convey subsidies, have suffered from serious vices: high per-unit cost and subsidies, low population coverage, lack of transparency, benefits to the middle-class rather than the poor, and inefficiency. Chile broke out of this flawed traditional mode by launching a housing program that conveys subsidies directly to households in die form of a one-time, non-reimbursable grant This approach has spread to other Latin American countries, increasingly with the support of donors. The paper describes and then analyzes the strengths and weaknesses of direct subsidy programs in Chile, Costa Rica, Colombia, and Uruguay to distill ten design lessons: target to low-income households and ensure political autonomy; replace below-market interest rates with direct demand subsidies; use group mechanisms for low-income households; stimulate supply, not just demand; adjust key amounts for inflation; balance progressivity and financial feasibility; join die efforts of various levels of government; use NGOs; establish mechanisms for on-going consolidation of housing solutions; and include measures to promote broader housing sector reform. The conclusion applies these lessons to the design of a housing pilot project in Venezuela.     

NO CHOICE: REFORMING SOCIAL HOUSING IN ENGLAND

This paper considers the current and future prospects for social housing. It looks at the key issues of choice and affordability that dominate housing policy, how this links social housing to the dominant tenure of owner-occupation and how government has sought to control social housing allowing for a managed decline of the sector. The final part of the paper proposes some reforms which will introduce real choice into rented housing and empower low-income households. This, however, will necessitate the end of social housing as a distinct tenure.