Can Audit Partners Predict Subordinates' Ability to Detect Errors?

This study examines audit partners' predictions of the ability of managers and seniors to detect financial statement errors. If partners are unable to predict the ability of their subordinates to detect errors, audit effectiveness may be affected. Audit partners are asked to predict which members of the audit team (managers or seniors) are able to detect specific types of errors. These predictions are then compared to errors detected by managers and seniors that are seeded in working papers. The results show that partners (1) exhibit significant overconfidence in the ability of subordinates to detect errors, (2) are more accurate in predicting managers' performance than seniors, (3) are more accurate at predicting subordinates' ability to detect mechanical (simple) errors than conceptual (complex) errors, and (4) are not better at predicting subordinates' ability to detect more frequent and more important errors than less frequent and less important errors.     

Can Africa's Saving Collapse Be Reversed?

Private saving in Sub-Saharan Africa declined from more than11 percent of disposable income in the 1970s to less than 8percent in the 1980s and only partially recovered (to less than9 percent) in the 1990s. This article analyzes the determinantsof private saving in Sub-Saharan Africa, seeking to explainthe region's dismal performance and identify policies that couldhelp to reverse the region's decline in saving. The analysisshows that in Sub-Saharan Africa causality runs from growthto investment (and perhaps to private saving), whereas a risein the saving rate Granger-causes an increase in investment.Foreign aid Granger-causes a reduction in both saving and investment,and investment also Granger-causes an increase in foreign aid.The empirical analysis of private saving in Sub-Saharan Africaand other regions over 1970–95 suggests that private savingin Africa can be explained by standard behavioral models. Accordingto these models private saving in Africa lags behind that inother regions (most notably, the high performing Asian economies)because of the region's lower per capita income, high young-agedependency ratio, and high dependence on aid. The combined effectsof these factors substantially outweigh Africa's advantage fromits lower public saving and higher government consumption. Finally,analysis of the experiences of Kenya, Zimbabwe, and Botswanaprovides further insight into the saving process in Sub-SaharanAfrica.     

Quis Auditoret Ipsos Auditores? Can Auditors Be Trusted?

This article explores the extent to which the audit profession and its practices promote public trust in audits. Differences between auditors and non‐auditors as to beliefs about the role of a financial report audit have long been discussed under the term ‘expectations gap’. However, this prior debate has tended to focus on non‐auditors’ alleged misunderstanding of audit processes without a corresponding understanding on the part of the profession as to why the public might place its trust in auditors. The study explores the nature of trust in an auditing context and notes that like any profession, auditing faces practical limitations but the inability to directly observe the conduct of audits combined with professional status create an ‘over trust’ expectation in the public. Changes in audit practices and culture have also exposed the profession to criticism. The article seeks to offer one approach by which the auditing profession can restore public confidence; namely, evidence‐based practice, which has proven effective in improving the quality of practice in medicine. Adoption of a reflective evidence‐based approach to audit practice offers the promise of greater audit quality and an improvement in the profession's accountability and public confidence.     

The Dissemination of Results from Supreme Audit Institutions: Independent Partners with the Media?

Maximising media coverage is one way for Supreme Audit Institutions (SAIs) to account for themselves and it has been argued that SAIs can become independent partners with the media. This strategy may appear appealing in particular when a response to audits is not compulsory. However, based on a case study of the Swedish National Audit Office (SNAO) in the years 2003–2007, this paper shows that several risks follow from a dissemination strategy focused on maximising media coverage. For example, it may result in an overly critical position in relation to the Executive, thereby challenging both SAI neutrality and SAI independence.     

Are Happy Investors Likely to Be Overconfident?

This study investigates the relationship of investors' happy sentiment and overconfidence effect. Sunshine, temperature, former returns, and margin loan change rate are used as proxies for happy sentiment. Using data from Taiwan Stock Exchange and principal component analysis, the happy sentiment index is divided into two categories: "natural environment happiness" and "investment atmosphere happiness." The results suggest that when natural environment happiness is stronger, investors are less likely to have overconfidence. On the contrary, when investment atmosphere happiness is stronger, investors are more likely to have overconfidence.     

Can Stock Volatility Be Benign? New Measurements and Macroeconomic Implications

We find nonsynchronized movements of two new measures of financial market uncertainty—good and bad volatility—which are based on the maximum and minimum stock prices within a month. Good (bad) volatility is associated with better (worse) expectations about the future economic situation and clearly signals acceleration (deceleration) in economic activity. The VAR results indicate that (i) output, employment, and stock price plummet rapidly in response to a bad volatility shock, while their responses to a good volatility shock are modest, and (ii) bad volatility shocks explain the bulk of economic activity and stock price fluctuations in the medium run.     

Can Operating Leverage Be the Cause of the Value Premium?

Recent theoretical models (Carlson, Fisher, and Giammarino, 2004) predict an association between the book-to-market equity ratio (BE/ME) and operating leverage in the cross-section. Consistent with these models, we find a positive association between BE/ME and the degree of operating leverage (DOL), between DOL and stock returns, and between DOL and systematic risk. Overall, our findings provide support for a risk-based explanation for the value premium that is consistent with existing theoretical models. The evolution of systematic risk associated with firm-level investment activity, rather than financial distress, seems to be the main determinant of the value premium.     

Valuing Loss Firms: What Can Be Learned From Analysts' Forecasts?

Prior research documents an anomalous negative price–earnings relation when a simple earnings capitalization model is estimated for loss‐making firms. Collins et al. (1999 ) suggest that the model is misspecified due to the omission of book value of equity. However, results from previous studies are confusing. We try to enrich prior literature by focusing on analysts' forecasts. In particular, we assess the role of earnings and book value in valuing loss firms using several measures based on the information provided by analysts. We hypothesize that the role of accounting figures depends on whether the loss firm is supported or not by investors. According to this argument, we construct several measures of investor support based on analysts' forecasts, and then test the value relevance of accounting information depending on the degree of support. Our results confirm the usefulness of the notion of ‘investor support’. For those loss firms that are expected to liquidate, we find that the inclusion of book value of equity in the model removes the negative sign on the earnings coefficient. However, for those loss firms that are expected to reverse current losses, we find that the coefficient on earnings remains negative despite the inclusion of book value.     

Can the Gains from International Diversification Be Achieved without Trading Abroad?

We examine whether portfolios of domestically traded securities can mimic foreign indices so that investment in assets that trade only abroad is not necessary to exhaust the gains from international diversification. We use monthly data from 1976 to 1993 for seven developed and nine emerging markets. Return correlations, mean-variance spanning, and Sharpe ratio test results provide strong evidence that gains beyond those attainable through home-made diversification have become statistically and economically insignificant. Finally, we show that the incremental gains from international diversification beyond home-made diversification portfolios have diminished over time in a way consistent with changes in investment barriers.     

A scientific approach to politics? On the trail of the Audit Commission

This article explores the ways in which the Audit Commission has become a key player in the governance of welfare provisioning and democratic communities in England and Wales. It draws primarily upon an analysis of Audit Commission texts, supplemented by conversations with Commissioners and observations of Audit Commission staff at work. The argument is that a new audit-accountability nexus has been forged which crosses the divide between New Right and New Labour politics. On the one hand, there has been a revolution in the nature of accountability—the locally-based accountability associated with local government has been eclipsed by a new centralized accountability, albeit one which attempts to synthesize upward and downward accountability within itself. On the other hand, there has been a revolution in the nature of audit, culminating in the rise of audit-inspection partnerships. In the process, the Audit Commission has been cast as the scientific advisor to central government, the reforming regulator of local government, and the impartial champion of the people.     

Beyond Performance: Does Assessed Potential Matter to Employees’ Voluntary Departure Decisions?

Firms are increasingly implementing performance–potential assessment systems, whereby supervisors evaluate employees’ current performance and future-oriented potential (i.e., promotion prospects). Whether retention is greatest for high performance–high potential (HiPo) employees under such a system is an empirical question—while the “promise” of a promotion may aid retention, these employees likely face attractive outside options. Using data from a multinational firm, I find that HiPos generally depart at a lower rate than lower performing non-HiPos. Among shorter tenured employees, I find the strongest evidence that potential matters to departures, above and beyond performance. In several instances, the rate of departure is lower when assessed potential is higher, holding performance constant. This is the case both among higher performers, where high potential leads to HiPo status, and among lower performers where high potential affords no such status. My findings suggest that HiPo status and potential ratings may help in facilitating employees’ early sorting decisions.     

The Long‐Run Fisher Effect: Can It Be Tested?

In this paper, I provide a plausible explanation as to why past studies have been unable to find support for the long-run Fisher effect. My argument is that exogenous shocks to the inflation rates in industrialized economies have not produced the permanent change to inflation necessary for testing the Fisher effect. Instead of finding a nonstationary, unit-root process for inflation like previous Fisher effect studies, here each country's inflation rate is found to follow a mean-reverting, fractionally integrated, long-memory process. Applying a bivariate, maximum likelihood estimator to a multivariate, fractionally integrated model of inflation and nominal interest, I find that the estimated inflation rates in 17 developed countries are highly persistent, fractionally integrated, mean-reverting processes with order of integration parameters significantly less than one. Since a permanent change to inflation has not occurred, a test of whether a permanent change to inflation affects the nominal interest rate one-for-one will be uninformative as to the truth or fallacy of the Fisher effect hypothesis.     

Can investors time their exposure to private equity?

Private equity performance, both for buyouts and venture capital, has been highly cyclical: periods of high fundraising have been followed by periods of low performance. Despite this seemingly predictable variation, we find modest gains, at best, to pursuing realistic, investable strategies that time capital commitments to private equity. This occurs, in part, because investors can only time their commitments to funds; they cannot time when commitments are called or when investments are exited. There is a high degree of time-series correlation in net cash flows even across commitment strategies that allocate capital in a very different manner over time.     

Can News Be a Major Source of Aggregate Fluctuations? A Bayesian DSGE Approach

We examine whether the news shocks, as explored in Beaudry and Portier (2004) , can be a major source of aggregate fluctuations. For this purpose, we extend a standard dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005) and Smets and Wouters (2003, 2007) by allowing news shocks on the total factor productivity (TFP), and estimate the model using Bayesian methods. Estimation results on the U.S. and Japanese economies suggest that (i) news shocks play a relatively more important role in the United States than in Japan, (ii) a news shock with a longer forecast horizon has larger effects on nominal variables, and (iii) the overall effect of the TFP on hours worked becomes ambiguous in the presence of news shocks.     

Public Policy and Accounting Research: What Is to Be Done?

Abstract

Singleton-Green [2010. The communication gap: Why doesn't accounting research make a greater contribution to debates on accounting policy? Accounting in Europe, 7(2), 129–145] argues that a communication gap between researchers and those involved in public debates on accounting problems significantly reduces the impact of accounting research. A new ICAEW report, The Effects of Mandatory IFRS Adoption in the EU: a Review of Empirical Research, tries to bridge the communication gap on the subject that it covers. The report found not only a significant amount of relevant research, but also that its usefulness was limited in various ways. The paper makes a number of recommendations to researchers: they should point out any biases in the data they use, address some issues through field work, not assume that surrounding institutions are unchanged, be careful to understand the specific features of the countries they cover, investigate differences in previous research, and state the economic significance of their findings. The paper also makes recommendations for non-academic participants in public policy debates, including: they should actively promote relevant research, help researchers get access to information, and help ensure that researchers have the incentives to do what is needed to benefit public policy.     

Is an Auditor's Propensity to Issue Going Concern Opinions a Valid Measure of Audit Quality?

A number of previous studies use auditor propensity to issue a going concern opinion (GCO) as a proxy of audit quality when examining a sample of financially distressed firms. This study examines whether audit quality (measured by discretionary accruals) influences the probability of financially distressed firms receiving GCOs using a non‐specific sample of 2937 firm‐year observations from Australia over the period 2011–2015. The study first investigates the association between financially distressed firms and the issuance of GCOs. This association is then re‐tested after separating the total sample into low and high audit quality subsamples. The results indicate that financially distressed firms are more likely to receive GCOs, confirming the application of ASA 570 Going Concern. However, financially distressed firms that receive GCOs from their auditors are limited to firms that have higher‐quality audits.     

A Comparative Analysis of Anglo‐Australian Pre‐packs: Can the Means Be Made to Justify the Ends?

Whereas pre‐packaged administrations have been prevalent in the UK for years, Australia's voluntary administration regime has been more restrictive of the practice. This article analyses the evolution of UK pre‐packs, why UK‐style pre‐packs are not prevalent in Australia and the challenges for UK and Australian lawmakers in striking the right balance with pre‐packs in their respective administration regimes. Building upon this analysis, the article proposes a mechanism that might make ‘connected‐party’ pre‐pack business sales work more fairly for stakeholders—that is, by obligating a connected‐party purchaser to make a future‐income contribution in favour of the insolvent company whose business has been ‘rescued’ by a pre‐packaged sale in administration. Copyright © 2012 INSOL International and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Can historical returns-earnings relations predict price responses to earnings news?

The main purpose of this study is to examine the usefulness of pooled and firm-specific returns-earnings models in predicting price responses to future earnings news. The question addresses whether earnings response coefficients (ERCs) (i.e., slope coefficients obtained from regressions of market-adjusted returns on earnings surprises) are helpful in predicting price responses to future earnings surprises. In other words, are historical returns-earnings relations (as captured by ERCs) useful in predicting future returns-earnings relations? Surprisingly, we find that ERCs from firm-specific regressions provide less accurate predictions of price responses to future earnings surprises than ERCs from pooled regressions. In addition, out-of-sample predictions from actual-firm-specific regressions are no more accurate than those from pseudo-firm-specific regressions. This is despite the fact that our pseudo firms are created through random draws of returns-earnings data. Therefore, they have no economic characteristics that extend beyond the period over which the coefficients are estimated.     

Can CFOs resist undue pressure from CEOs to manage earnings?

Building upon the premise that, under certain conditions, the ability of the Chief Executive Officer (CEO) to pressure the Chief Financial Officer (CFO) is limited, we develop a measure of CFO resistance that captures the ability of the CFO to resist undue pressure from the CEO to manage earnings. In doing so, we consider various sources of power for both the CEO and CFO, and a market setting where CFO resistance is perceived to be high. We find that firms with resistant CFOs are less likely to engage in earnings management than firms with non-resistant CFOs, ceteris paribus. Additionally, while confirming prior evidence that CEOs with strong incentives are more likely to manage earnings, we show that this effect is significantly less pronounced in the presence of resistant CFOs. Overall, our findings suggest that firms can improve the quality of financial reporting by creating conditions that enable CFO resistance.