上周投资评级变动股票点评

根据今日投资《在线分析师》（www.investoday.com.cn）对国内近百家主流研究机构4000余名分析师的投资评级数据进行的统计,上周投资评级上调居前的25只股票中,化工行业排名靠前,有4只个股入围,这引起了我们的极大关注。本期重点点评一下该行业。     

投资评级变动股票点评

纺织品和服饰：行业攻守兼备根据今日投资《在线分析师》（www.investoday.com.cn）对国内近百家主流研究机构4000余名分析师的投资评级数据进行的统计,上周投资评级上调居前的25只股票中,纺织品和服饰行业排名靠前,有3只个股入围,这引起了我们的极大关注。本期重点点评一下该行业。     

分析师荐股评级、投资延迟与超常收益

本文检验了投资延迟对投资者从分析师荐股评级中获利的可能性产生的影响,投资者在面对分析师一致认为买入评级股票时,应尽量缩短投资延迟,以获取较高的超常回报率。     

投资高分红股票也有超额收益

目前,我国的股市主要实行收益市盈率,而非分红市盈率,此种做法与欧美股市的通行做法有所不同.从表面看,即使是收益市盈率明显提高,与一般投资者之间并没有太大的关系.因为收益市盈率更多的体现为理论数据,只存在于账面上,股民无法获得收益的分红.因此,在我国的股市中正逐步兴起投资高分红股票,其超额收益广受各界关注,本文仅就相关问题进行探讨.     

投资高分红股票也有超额收益

目前,我国的股市主要实行收益市盈率,而非分红市盈率,此种做法与欧美股市的通行做法有所不同。从表面看,即使是收益市盈率明显提高,与一般投资者之间并没有太大的关系。因为收益市盈率更多的体现为理论数据,只存在于账面上,股民无法获得收益的分红。因此,在我国的股市中正逐步兴起投资高分红股票,其超额收益广受各界关注,本文仅就相关问题进行探讨。     

投资评级上调的股票

1）上表中的评级数据由今日投资财经资讯有限公司（www．investoday．com．cn）对国内70多家券商研究所1800余名分析师的相关投资评级数据进行整理加工后提供。     

投资评级变动股票点评

纺织品和服饰行业：具有较高的投资安全边际根据今日投资《在线分析师》（www.investoday.com.cn）对国内近百家主流研究机构4000余名分析师的投资评级数据进行的统计,上周投资评级上调居前的25只股票中,所属行业较为分散,化工品入选三家公司、信息技术与服务、     

投资评级变动股票点评

房地产行业：板块可能仍难有起色根据今日投资《在线分析师》（www．investoday．com．cn）对国内近百家主流研究机构4000余名分析师的投资评级数据进行的统计。上周投资评级上调居前的25只股票中,所属行业有所分散,房地产和化工品各入选四家公司,电子设备与仪器入选三只;金属与采矿、电力和机械制造各入选二只,其余分布在运输基础设施、通讯设备、航天与国防、纺织品和服饰等行业中。本期我们关注一下房地产行业。     

投资评级上调的股票

1）上表中的评级数据由今日投资财经资讯有限公司（WWW．investoday．com．cn）对国内近百家主流研究机构4000余名分析师的相关投资评级数据进行整理加工后提供。     

投资评级变动股票点评

化工品行业：产量稳定增长下游产品涨价根据今日投资《在线分析师》（www.investoday.com.cn）对国内近百家主流研究机构4000余名分析师的投资评级数据进行的统计,上周投资评级上调居前的25只股票中,化工品行业排名第一,有10只个股入围;机械制造和制药行业分别有3只个股入选;电子设备与仪器有2家入选;其余分布于电力、房地产、建筑工程、汽车零配件、通讯设备以及证券经纪行业。本期我们选择化工品行业进行点评。     

Investment Plans and Stock Returns

When the discount rate falls, investment should rise. Thus with time-varying discount rates and instantly changing investment, investment should positively covary with current stock returns and negatively covary with future stock returns. Aggregate nonresidential U.S. investment contradicts both these implications, probably because of investment lags. Investment plans, however, satisfy both implications. These investment plans, from a U.S. government survey of firms, are highly informative measures of expected investment and explain more than three-quarters of the variation in real annual aggregate investment growth. Plans have substantial forecasting power for excess stock returns, showing that time-varying risk premia affect investment.     

基本养老保险基金投资、股票收益率与股价波动性

以2017—2022年各季度基本养老保险基金投资数据为样本,考察基本养老保险基金投资对股票收益率与股价波动性的影响。结果显示：基本养老保险基金持股比例变化对股票未来收益率有一定预测效应,持股比例增加会加剧股价波动。异质性检验表明,被持股公司规模越大,持股比例变化对股票收益率的影响越不明显,对股价波动性影响的时滞性越强。对于短期持股而言,持股比例增加会加剧股价波动,而对于长期持股而言,持股比例增加有利于稳定股价。鉴于此,应继续推动基本养老保险基金全国统筹,进一步扩大其市场化投资规模、延长投资考核期限,提升基金可持续发展能力。     

On Stock Market Returns and Returns on Investment

This article presents general conditions under which it is possible to obtain asset pricing relations from the intertemporal optimal investment decision of the firm. Under the assumption of linear homogeneous production and adjustment cost functions (the Hayashi (1982) conditions), it is possible to establish, state by state, the equality between the return on investment and the market return of the financial claims issued by the firm. This result proves to be, in essence, robust to the consideration of very general constraints on investment and the inclusion of taxes.     

Capital Investment,Innovative Capacity,and Stock Returns

We study the dynamic implications of capital investment in innovative capacity (IC) on future stock returns, investment, and profitability by modeling the unique effects of IC investment on uncertain option generation/exercise and postexercise revenue. The model highlights the diverse effects of IC investment on expected returns in different postinvestment regimes and yields the novel prediction that, under the neoclassical assumption of nonincreasing revenue returns, IC investment is positively related to subsequent cumulative stock returns with a lag. The model also predicts a positive effect of IC investment on future investment and profitability. We find strong empirical support for these predictions.     

Predicting Stock Returns Using Financial Statement Information

We examine the profitability of the Ou and Penman (1989a) Pr trading strategy and the Holthausen and Larcker (1992) Prob trading strategy over the period 1980–1992 in the UK. This is a test of whether an investor can earn abnormal returns by exploiting fundamental accounting data. We employ alternative abnormal return metrics and research designs to control for risk. Using a UK dataset offers an independent test because the UK differs from the US in its formal and informal financial reporting environment, its structure of share ownership, and the behaviour of its economy over the study period. We find consistent evidence that an investor could have used a summary measure of financial statement information to predict future abnormal returns by indirectly predicting one-year-ahead earnings changes, but only weak and inconsistent evidence that an investor could have used a summary measure of financial statement information to predict one-year-ahead stock returns directly. We offer some thoughts on the reasons for these different results.     

Financial Constraints, Debt Capacity, and the Cross-section of Stock Returns

Building on a model of corporate investment under collateral constraints, we develop and test a hypothesis on the differential effect of debt capacity on stock returns across financially constrained and unconstrained firms. Consistent with the hypothesis, we find that debt capacity is a significant determinant of stock returns only in the cross-section of financially constrained firms, after controlling for beta, size, book-to-market, leverage, and momentum. The findings suggest that cross-sectional differences in corporate investment behavior arising from financial constraints, predicted by theories of imperfect capital markets and supported by empirical evidence, are reflected in the stock returns of manufacturing firms.     

有限注意、上市公司金融投资与股票回报率

我国上市公司参与金融投资活动十分普遍,这一行为极大地增加了公司估值的复杂性。当投资者存在有限注意时,金融投资收益很可能引起系统性的估值偏误。本文以A股非金融类上市公司为对象,考察金融投资收益对股票长期回报率的影响。研究发现,投资者倾向于高估金融投资盈利较高的股票,低估没有金融投资收益(金融投资亏损)的股票,构造对冲组合的超额回报高达每年12%。进一步地,这一估值偏误与投资者有限的信息处理能力、错误地选择估值基准以及忽视隐含信息相关。本文的发现对理解市场有效性、企业真实盈余管理以及影子银行监管具有重要参考价值。     

Interest Rate Sensitivity, Asymmetry, and the Stock Returns of Financial Institutions

This paper attempts to reconcile the conflicting results reported in prior interest rate sensitivity studies that utilized the stock returns of financial institutions. By analyzing the interest rate elasticities during different interest rate cycles and adjusting for different monetary policy regimes, this paper suggests that sample period effects rather than methodological differences account for the conflicts presented in previous studies. More specifically, the empirical results indicate some asymmetrical interest rate sensitivities during various interest rate cycles. For example, the stock returns of savings and loan institutions were found to be more sensitive to falling interest rates. On the other hand, the stock returns of banks appeared to be more responsive to rising interest rates. Consequently, any attempt to employ models utilizing aggregated data either for policy making or to construct portfolio strategies will result in time aggregation bias and misguided decision making.     

Stock Returns,Expected Returns,and Real Activity

Measuring the total return variation explained by shocks to expected cash flows, time-varying expected returns, and shocks to expected returns is one way to judge the rationality of stock prices. Variables that proxy for expected returns and expected-return shocks capture 30% of the variance of annual NYSE value-weighted returns. Growth rates of production, used to proxy for shocks to expected cash flows, explain 43% of the return variance. Whether the combined explanatory power of the variables—about 58% of the variance of annual returns—is good or bad news about market efficiency is left for the reader to judge.     

Stock Returns and Operating Performance of Securities Issuers

We examine long‐run stock returns and operating performance around firms’ offerings of common stock, convertible debt, and straight debt from 1985 to 1990. We find that pre‐issue abnormal returns are positive and significant for stock issuers, but not for convertible and straight debt issuers. The post‐issue mean returns show that common stock and convertible debt issuers experience underperformance during the post‐issue periods, but straight debt issuers do not. Consistent with these results, common stock issuers experience the best pre‐issue operating performance among all three types of issuers, and operating performance declines during the post‐issue periods for common stock and convertible debt issuers. Using a new approach in linear model estimations to correct heteroskedasticity and to adjust for finite sample, we find a positive relation between post‐issue operating performance and issue‐period stock price reactions. The results suggest that future operating performance is anticipated at the issue and that securities issues provide information on issuers’ future performance.