INTERNATIONAL LESSONS FOR THE PROPERTY PRICE BOOM IN SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa appears to share some of the characteristics (property price boom, easing of monetary policy, strong domestic demand growth) of asset price booms in industrial countries that were followed by a period of weak growth. The international experience suggests that a number of practical obstacles need to be overcome before a more proactive role for monetary policy is warranted. However, a larger variety of available mortgage contracts, including longer‐term fixed‐rate contracts, should allow for a more efficient allocation of interest rate risks. Also, a more systematic nationwide collection of property price data, including data on commercial property price developments, would provide a more representative basis for analysis.     

THE EMERGENCE OF INSTITUTIONALISED SOCIAL DIALOGUE IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper looks at the conceptual framework of social dialogue, investment in social capital and some international definitions of social dialogue as background to developments in this sphere in South Africa. Social dialogue is viewed as a mechanism for problem‐solving and reducing transaction costs. The paper considers the ramifications of the 1979 Wiehahn Report on labour relations, as well as the nature of social dialogue in the apartheid era and its workplace origins. Institutionally, the stepping stones to the emergence of the NEF and Nedlac are discussed, together with some of the issues involved in, and formal outcomes of, Nedlac over the past eleven years in public policy choices. It closes with an evaluation of institutionalised social dialogue in South Africa and its future. “With the transition to non‐racial democracy in 1994, it became the task of an ANC‐led government to attempt to resolve the economic contradictions that apartheid had created. To achieve this requires massive economic and social changes, great programmes of investment and structural change. It is necessary to create the vital human capital needed at every level, from rudimentary literacy to the highest ranks of science and technology; to overcome enormous deficiencies in all forms of social infrastructure, including housing, schools, health, and transport; to return land to the black population and restore ravaged rural areas; to expand black ownership of mining, industry, commerce, and finance; and to diminish enormous inequalities in income and wealth. The new regime has made a promising start, but South Africa's past will exert a powerful influence on its present and future for a long time to come, and these huge tasks will not be swiftly or easily accomplished.” Charles Feinstein (2005 )     

EVALUATING THE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EFFECTS OF A WAGE SUBSIDY SCHEME FOR SOUTH AFRICA

Unemployment among semi‐ and unskilled labour has reached severe proportions (over 50%) and threatens the political and economic stability of the South African economy. In this paper a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the South African economy is used to assess the effectiveness of a wage subsidy in raising employment of semi‐ and unskilled workers. We find that employment of semi‐ and unskilled workers can be raised quite significantly. Further, the wage subsidy schemes compares favourably with alternative welfare grant schemes in terms of employment growth. However, the results are sensitive to the targeting of sectors and the substitutability between labour of different skill levels.     

VALUING BLUE FLAG STATUS AND ESTUARINE WATER QUALITY IN MARGATE,SOUTH AFRICA1

This study estimates the costs associated with reduced water quality and withdrawal of Blue Flag status in Margate, Kwazulu‐Natal, based on travel costs and contingent behaviour (reported change in visits contingent on a hypothetical scenario). Costs associated with hypothetical loss of Blue Flag status (based on reduced visits) range between R17 and R25 million per annum. Interestingly, Blue Flag status was withdrawn shortly after completion of the survey, owing to reduced water quality. This study therefore provides an estimate of the associated welfare losses, and of the benefits of actions to improve water quality and restore Blue Flag status.     

THE ROLE OF COMMODITY PRICES IN MACROECONOMIC POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper examines whether commodity prices can be used as signal for informing macroeconomic policy in South Africa using the new approach for testing Granger causality developed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995 ). Evidence of causality from average gold price to interest rate, money, exchange rate and the consumer price index was observed. Again, evidence of causality was observed from metals price index to interest rate, money and exchange rate. The results suggest there is merit in using South Africa's average gold price and the metals price index of the International Monetary Fund as informational variables in setting monetary policy.     

PRICE ELASTICITIES AND PRICING POWER IN EMERGING MARKETS: THE CASE OF PETROCHEMICAL‐DERIVED PLASTICS IN SOUTH AFRICA1

This paper examines whether there necessarily exists a conflict between allocative and productive efficiency in small open economy markets. That productive efficiency favours market concentration is not in dispute, and the sole question we face is whether allocative efficiency suffers under high market concentration. We proceed theoretically and econometrically. We find that the conflict between productive and allocative efficiency is not necessarily as stringent as the international competition policy literature suggests should be the case. In particular, we note that the strategic interaction between the large domestic producer and its competitors makes feasible a range of alternative price elasticities of demand, and empirically that all price elasticities of demand are less than or equal to unity. Nevertheless, the impact of market structure is such as to render feasible a wide range of possible levels of pricing power.     

NATURE, MARKETS AND STATE RESPONSE: THE DROUGHT OF 1939 IN JAPAN AND KOREA

Large areas of Northeast Asia experienced drought in 1939. Agricultural production in Korea decreased significantly, but the drought did not cause famine in Japan despite its dependence on rice imports from Korea. The paper analyses the impact of the 1939 drought on the markets for rice and electricity in Japan. The authorities were ill-prepared for such a disaster but willing to use it for the purpose of covering for other problems. The drought thus accelerated the move of Japan's economic system towards a managed economy. A lower total rainfall in Japan in 1940 did not generate similar problems, suggesting that the broader political, economic, and social context is crucial to the identification of short-term climatic fluctuations as crises.     

THE CYCLICALITY OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY IN SOUTH AFRICA SINCE 1994

This paper uses a structural vector‐autoregression approach to discuss the cyclicality of fiscal and monetary policy in South Africa since 1994. There is substantial South African literature on this topic, but much disagreement remains. Though not undisputed, there is growing consensus that monetary policy has contributed to the remarkable stabilisation of the South African economy over this period. The evaluation of the role of fiscal policy in stabilisation has been less favourable and there is little evidence that a countercyclical fiscal stance was a priority over this period. This paper considers these issues in an empirical framework that addresses some of the shortcomings in the literature. Specifically, it constructs a structural model in contrast with the reduced form models typically used in the South African literature, incorporates the dynamic interaction between monetary and fiscal shocks on the demand side and supply shocks on the other, and avoids controversy over “neutral” base years and the size of fiscal elasticities. The model confirms the consensus on monetary policy, finding it to have been largely countercyclical since 1994. On fiscal policy, this paper finds evidence of pro‐cyclicality, especially in the more recent period, though the policy simulations suggest that the pro‐cyclicality of fiscal policy has had little destabilising impact on real output.     

TAX REFORM AND THE PROGRESSIVITY OF PERSONAL INCOME TAX IN SOUTH AFRICA

This paper investigates the progressivity of personal income tax in South Africa over the period 1989 to 2003. We use the effective, redistributive and disproportionality measures of progressivity and find that progressivity of the tax system increased over the period 1990 to 1994. However, during the first phase of the reform programmes the results are inconclusive with the Kakwani index (disproportionality measure) showing increased progressivity. The redistributive effect measure, on the other hand, indicates a marginal decline in progressivity. During the second phase of the reform programmes, both techniques suggest a worsening in progressivity. One explanation for the decline in progressivity during the latter period in the analysis is the fact that many more “new” taxpayers entered the tax net (higher income groups in our database) which made the distribution of pre‐tax income more unequal thus impacting on progressivity. On the other hand, the disproportionality measure shows a continuous, albeit volatile increase in progressivity over the latter period under investigation.     

COMMUNITY‐BASED PROVISION OF DEVELOPMENT SERVICES IN RURAL SOUTH AFRICA1

It is often contended that rural development works most effectively when beneficiary communities are active project participants, and not the passive recipients of assistance. This paper analyses participatory development through the lens of public goods theory. South Africa's Community Water Supply & Sanitation Programme is discussed as a case study. Conclusions from our game‐theoretic analysis are used to make suggestions for South African development policy.     

THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF MANUFACTURING AND SERVICES TO EMPLOYMENT CREATION AND GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA

This study examines the linkages between the manufacturing and services sectors, and between each of them and the rest of the domestic economy, based on analysis of input-output tables and employment trends. This reveals that manufacturing is particularly important as a source of demand for the services sector as well as the rest of the economy through its strong backward linkages, which suggests that in this respect a decline in manufacturing could negatively affect future growth. Services are especially important in terms of employment creation, both direct and indirect.     

THE RECENT DECLINE IN THE EMPLOYMENT OF PERSONS WITH DISABILITIES IN SOUTH AFRICA, 1998‐2006

This paper shows that there has been a significant decline in the employment and labour force participation of persons with disabilities in South Africa over the 1998 through 2006 period. Disability is defined based on activity limitations. Data are from the October and the General Household Surveys. The paper also deals with the possible causes of the decline. While several causes can be invoked, preliminary evidence suggests that the rise of the Disability Grant programme might be responsible for a part of the decline. Recommendations are made for future research and data collection on disability and employment.     

THE CHANGING FACE OF PUBLIC FINANCING OF HIGHER EDUCATION,WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO SOUTH AFRICA1

Higher education displays characteristics of both private and public goods and there is a trend worldwide to expect individuals to pay more of the costs of their higher education. In South Africa public funding of higher education decreased from 0.86% of GDP in 1986 to only 0.66% in 2006; so that student tuition fees had to be increased to compensate for this loss of income. In the process staff numbers were kept relatively constant while student numbers increased appreciably. Two future scenarios, based on public higher education expenditure as a percentage of GDP and on real state allocation per WFTES, are spelt out. Although the qualifications awarded per FTE academic staff member increased over time, the graduation rates of the higher education institutions in South Africa are worsening. High‐level research, measured in publication units per FTE academic staff member, shows a disturbing decreasing trend since 1997.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF EMPLOYMENT STATUS IN SOUTH AFRICA USING COHORT ANALYSIS, 1994‐20041

We analyse trends in employment, unemployment and labour force participation by simple graphical techniques, using all the October Household Surveys and the September Labour Force Surveys. We show that African male employment in 1995 seems high, when compared to all the other surveys. Furthermore much of the increase in African female labour force participation is concentrated in the period 1998 to 2000, which suggests that measurement and sampling changes may be partially responsible for the trend. We track cohorts of individuals over the eleven years for which we have data. We show that young people are leaving school earlier, while being better educated than their elders. They are not, however, being absorbed into employment at a faster rate. This has led to a spike in youth unemployment.     

MONETARY POLICY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: THE CASE OF MALAYSIA

This paper provides a case study to characterize the monetary policy regime in Malaysia, from a medium‐ and long‐term perspective. Specifically, we ask how the Central Bank of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), has structured its monetary policy regime, and how it has conducted monetary and exchange rate policy under the regime. By conducting three empirical analyses, we characterize the monetary and exchange rate policy regime in Malaysia by three intermediate solutions on three vectors: the degree of autonomy in monetary policy, the degree of variability of the exchange rate, and the degree of capital mobility.