中国和八国集团经济政策协调的经济基础分析

为研究中国和八国集团(G8)是否存在经济政策协调的经济基础,文章以国际经济政策协调理论为依据,从经济相互依存度考察政策协调的基础。通过选取衡量经济体相关性和趋同性的标准,对中国与八国集团中七个主要发达国家间的经济相互依存度进行比较。贸易的相关性和部分政策变量指标的趋同性,说明中国和七国已表现出一定的经济政策协调基础。但是,运用VAR模型对影响经济波动的深层因素——供给和需求冲击进行对称性分析,却显示中国与七国冲击对称性尚不显著,表明中国与七国相比参与政策协调的成本会比较大。所以,中国目前可不急于全面参与G8的政策协调,而应先利用当前的对话机制,加强同发达国家的经济联系,逐步探索未来协调的步骤和领域。     

Co-ordinating Stability: Some Remarks on the Roles of Monetary and Fiscal Policy under EMU

The launch of Monetary Union in Europe has prompted calls for enhanced policy co-ordination among economic policy-makers. This paper sounds a note of caution and argues that the problem of policy co-ordination needs to be placed in the broader context of the efficient assignment of tasks and responsibilities among separate actors. In the presence of incentive and information problems, overly ambitious attempts at EXPLICIT forms of policy co-ordination may actually turn out to undermine the IMPLICIT co-ordination properties of the clear division of responsibilities enshrined in the Maastricht Treaty. A single monetary policy that is credibly geared to the maintenance of price stability and national fiscal policies that genuinely accept the constraints of the Stability and Growth Pact already go a long way in securing macroeconomic stability. Additional channels for dialogue among policymakers should be helpful to the extent that they enhance the understanding of individual responsibilities and do not dilute accountability.     

Policy Uncertainty and Economic Reforms in a Monetary Union

Abstract. The paper analyzes the relation between monetary uncertainty and government incentives to implement economic reforms in order to reduce structural distortions and make economies more flexible. It is shown that uncertainty about the central bank's behavior leads to more reforms. I relate this result to the debate about central bank structure in a larger European monetary union.     

Perspectives for Future Economic Policy Coordination within EMU

While rules, procedures and institutions for economic policy-making in EMU have been put in place, their functioning is still open to the tests of reality. The singular mix of a centralized monetary policy and decentralized fiscal (and structural) policies makes coordination procedures a necessity, if an optimal policy mix pursuing the objectives of Art. 2 TEU is to be achieved. Inclusion of social partners into macro-policy coordination, as proposed in the new European Employment Pact, is a necessary complement, if wage policy is to play its role as a shock absorber for asymmetric shocks, but also in order to align policy orientations of all actors. While during the start-up phase of EMU each policy actor focuses on his own independence and autonomy, in the future the everyday task of conducting economic policy will lead to a more pragmatic cooperation by all actors.     

财政货币政策配合与农业可持续发展

农业可持续发展是国民经济可持续发展的重要组成部分。要实现农业的可持续发展其根本途径在于实现农业经济增长方式的转变。财政货币政策要促进农业经济增长方式的转变,实现农业可持续发展,必须完善财政金融与农业运行机制,建立财政金融与农业发展的良性循环关系。论文旨在研究农业经济增长方式与农业可持续发展的关系,农业可持续发展中的财政货币政策配合模式及财政货币政策的配合运用     

Patching up the Pact

The paper considers the implications for the EU accession candidates of Central and Eastern Europe of the fiscal‐financial constraints imposed by the Stability and Growth Pact and the Maastricht Treaty. Our findings apply also to those current EU members whose initial conditions (e.g., infrastructure and progress in state pension reform) or other structural characteristics (e.g., demographic structure, growth potential, Balassa‐Samuelson equilibrium real exchange rate appreciation) differ significantly from the EU average. We find the existing criteria to be seriously flawed and propose an alternative rule, the Permanent Balance Rule, based on a strong form of tax smoothing.     

基于流动性过剩的财政政策和货币政策协调性研究

流动性过剩是当前中国宏观经济中的突出矛盾，影响了中国经济健康有序的发展。要解决流动性膨胀问题，不应该仅仅从银行体系这个角度来考虑，而应该从整个宏观经济平衡这个更为广泛的视角去分析和研究。这意味着仅仅依靠货币当局，沿用提高存款准备金率和存贷款利率、向市场发行央行票据等现有的货币政策手段来应对流动性膨胀，难以根治问题。应在运用货币政策的同时，配合财政政策，通过两大政策的协调配合，建立起消费主导的良性经济发展模式和合理的国民收入分配格局，才是应对流动性膨胀的治本之策。     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy-Makers in the European Economic and Monetary Union: Allies or Adversaries?

Optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) are determined by simulating a global model under alternative assumptions about the objective function of the European Central Bank (ECB) and about cooperation vs. non-cooperation between monetary and fiscal policy-makers and among the latter. The results show the high effectiveness of fixed rules in the presence of supply-side shocks and the usefulness of cooperative discretionary measures against demand-side shocks. More generally, cooperation among fiscal policy-makers in the EMU is nearly always superior to non-cooperative equilibrium solutions, yielding a strong case for the coordination of fiscal policies.     

Fiscal Policy in Europe: How Effective Are Automatic Stabilisers?

It is largely recognised that fiscal policy will have largerresponsibilities for cyclicalstabilisation in EMU given the loss of the monetary instrument.At the same time, theEMU's budgetary framework emphasises the need to rely onautomatic fiscal stabilisers,rather than active policies in cushioning the business cycle.We show that automaticstabilisers are relatively powerful in the event of shocksto private consumption, but lessso in the case of shocks to private investment and exports.In the case of supply sideshocks, the automatic stabilisers are largely ineffective,but this may actually be a goodthing to the extent that supply-side disturbances call forstructural adjustment rather thancyclical stabilisation.     

Modelling International Policy Games: Lessons from European Monetary Coordination

Most international monetary policy games are modelled as prisoners' dilemma games. Political scientists suggest however that other game-theoretic structures (chicken, stag-hunt and deadlock games) could be more appropriate to describe international monetary coordination. This paper provides some empirical evidence on this issue, by studying the case of European monetary coordination from 1979 to 1989. First, central banks' and governments' preferences are revealed through an analysis of their actual behaviour. Then, the dynamic game describing policymakers' interactions is simulated under alternative institutional arrangements: coordination, defection, sub-group coalitions, etc. The main conclusion is that the stylised facts derived from those experiments seem not to be consistent with the implications of the prisoners' dilemma framework. Consistency is instead found with the features of a stag-hunt game. CEPR and FEEM This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

关于我国货币政策促进经济增长的研究

人民银行货币政策目标是:保持人民币币值稳定并以此促进经济增长,所以搞清楚货币政策与通货膨胀、经济增长的关系就十分必要。通过计量分析可以得出:货币供应量M1的增长是推动GDP增长的主要因素,财政支出增长不是推动GDP增长的因素,但是不能否定其在反经济危机中的巨大作用;货币供应量M1的增长是推动CPI增长的主要因素;在制定货币供应量政策时,既要考虑到推动GDP增长的目的,也要受到CPI上涨的制约,需要在二者之间权衡;在制定利率政策时要研究均衡的利率,实际利率要向均衡利率靠近,并且要随着经济情况的变化及时调整,以达到最大的资本积累量,保证我国的长期经济增长。     

Asymmetric Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union

We analyze the conduct of monetary policy in a currency union in the face of asymmetric shocks. In particular, we compare the stabilization properties of a currency union versus alternative exchange rate arrangements. The relative performance of a currency union is shown to depend on the extent of economic integration in patterns of consumption and production and on the relative weights placed on price stability versus employment stability in the monetary authority's objective function.
JEL classification : F 33; F 40     

欧洲模式借鉴:东亚货币合作的路径选择与政策协调

本文对欧盟由"准平行货币"向"单一货币"逐步推进的货币合作路径及其政策协调机制进行了探索.从中得到了5点启示,并结合东亚经济金融合作的状况,提出了东亚金融合作应实施渐进式、梯度推进的多重平行货币合作、宏观经济政策逐步协调趋同的发展模式.     

新形势下我国货币政策的传导绩效及其优化

本课题坚持货币政策短期有效的命题,同时也强调,影响我国货币政策绩效的主要是长期因素。未到位的制度转轨引致包括短期因素在内的综合因素积累,在经济转型期以内生性通货萎缩为释解。其根源在于经济结构和投融资体制广泛存在的结构性矛盾和扭曲,削弱了货币政策的传导绩效。一方面,传统的货币政策传导途径处于梗阻状态;另一方面,现有货币政策传导架难以适应资本市场迅速发展、广泛的货币替代等新形势发展,货币政策的外部约束加强。提高货币政策有效性首先要解决的是通货萎缩的内生性问题,其核心在于重建适应于经济结构变化的投融资制度,在政策层面,应该搭配好财政政策与货币政策。     

经济开放度与货币政策有效性的实证分析

通过运用Karras建立的产出增长率和通货膨胀模型,采用向量自回归VAR框架,分析经济开放度对我国货币政策效果的影响。回归结果表明,无论是以M0作为货币政策的测度指标,还是以M1作为货币政策的测度指标,它们都反映出:在长期,经济开放度的提高会削弱货币政策的有效性;但从短期来看,经济开放度的提高不一定会削弱货币政策的有效性,有时反而会提高货币政策的有效性。     

Drowned by numbers? Stabilization properties of an EU-wide unemployment insurance system

The recent crisis has given rise to proposals for the creation of a European unemployment insurance system. We simulate an EU-wide mechanism under various scenarios, varying methods of financing (common or country-specific contribution rates) and triggers for pay-outs (all time or contingent clauses). We analyse the impact of the system using different measures of stabilization under different fiscal multipliers. A system operating during bad times (periods where the increase in unemployment is large) would reduce GDP growth variability but also growth correlation among member countries. Hence, there is a trade-off between stabilization and synchronization of national business cycles.     

经济全球化下的农产品对外贸易政策及其调整

经济全球化形成当今世界经济发展的主流,中国加入WTO,必将加快其融入经济全球化的步伐,因而农产品对外贸易政策体系的建立及其调整是21世纪我国农业经济和贸易经济发展的战略选择。     

EMU in Reality: The Effect of a Common Monetary Policy on Economies with Different Transmission Mechanisms

The theory of optimal currency areas states that a single currency zone should have symmetry of shocks and structures across regions. Research on monetary union in Europe has either assumed these conditions to hold close enough not to cause problems, or has focussed on asymmetries in shocks. But what if economic structures and/or market responses differ between countries or regions? This paper examines the consequences of a single monetary policy when there are asymmetries in i) the monetary transmissions; ii) the wage/price transmissions; and iii) private sector asset holdings. We find the first and last destabilise the business cycle, and put countries out of phase with one another in a way that cannot be corrected by deficit constrained fiscal policies. The effect is to delay convergence.     

中国经济开放度与货币政策有效性研究

在Hau(2000)模型中引入工资交错调整和交易成本假设,以此构建开放经济条件下货币政策有效性分析基础模型,并通过一般均衡分析后发现,经济开放对货币政策的最终目标——价格稳定和产出增长都会产生影响。贸易开放程度和金融开放程度的加深,将增强货币供给对短期汇率调整的影响;而经济开放度的加深,虽然在短期内会削弱货币政策对产出的影响,但从长期来看,将会对产出调整起积极作用。同时,运用校准法模拟分析后发现,随着我国经济开放度的提高,货币政策调节短期消费和产出的能力将会下降,特别是宽松的货币政策将更多地表现在汇率波动上。     

基于内容分析法的科技创新政策协同研究

构建了基于政策文本编码的内容分析法。遵循样本选择、分析框架构建、政策文本编码、频数统计分析的步骤,对"中长期科技发展规划(2006—2012)"政策群中的政策文本进行量化分析。在频数统计分析结果的基础上,从政策历史演进、政策层级、政策主体和政策工具的角度,探讨了政策群的协同状况。