Monetary policy,bank competition and regional credit cycles: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment

This paper examines how competition in the banking sector affects the transmission of monetary policy and the variation of credit expansion across regions in the United States. Using the U.S. branching deregulation between 1994 to 2008 as an exogenous change in banks’ competition, we analyze how bank competition affects monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel. The results show that competition strengthens the impact of monetary policy on bank loan supply. We then show that states with a more deregulated banking sector were more affected by monetary conditions in the years leading to the Great Recession. Specifically, the effect of loose monetary conditions on the expansion of households’ debt was stronger in states that had fewer bank branching restrictions. The results suggest that variations in the level of bank competition may have amplified regional asymmetries in the years leading to the Great Recession.     

Does competition influence the bank lending channel in the euro area?

This paper examines how competition influences the bank lending channel in the euro area countries. Using a large panel of banks from 12 euro area countries for the period 2002–2010 we analyze the reaction of loan supply to monetary policy actions depending on the degree of bank competition. We find that the effect of monetary policy on bank lending is dependent on bank competition: the transmission of monetary policy via the bank lending channel is less pronounced for banks with extensive market power. Further investigation shows that banks with less market power were more sensitive to monetary policy only before the financial crisis. These results suggest that bank market power has a significant impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy. Therefore, wide variations in the level of bank market power may lead to asymmetric effects of the single monetary policy.     

Competition in banking and the lending channel: Evidence from bank-level data in Asia and Latin America

This paper examines how banking competition affects the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel. We apply a two-step estimation procedure using bank-level panel data for commercial banks in 10 Asian and 10 Latin American countries during the period from 1996 to 2006. In the first step we measure the degree of banking competition by applying the methodology proposed by Panzar and Rosse (1987). In the second step we estimate a loan growth equation where the explanatory variables include the Panzar–Rosse measure of banking competition. The estimation results provide consistent evidence that increased competition in the banking sector weakens the transmission of monetary policy through the bank lending channel. This is especially true for banks in Latin American countries and banks of small size, low liquidity, and low capitalization. We also discuss the policy implications of the main findings of this paper.     

Credit supply conditions and business cycles: New evidence from bank lending survey data

In this study, we utilize an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model in order to investigate the impact of changing lending standards on aggregate economic activity, considering the period 2000–2017 and five major economies, that is, Canada, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US. We capture lending conditions using bank lending survey data that help extract the credit-supply side of the shock and, thus, direct the focus onto loan supply-factors. The main findings document that shocks associated with changes in lending standards play a substantial role in determining changes in real economic activity within each country. It should also be noted that these results remain robust even when we consider a structural break in our data and investigate these effects separately for the period immediately after the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007−09. Overall, the findings suggest that bank lending survey data provide important informational content and deepen our understanding regarding changes in real economic activity. On a final note, we provide further insights regarding the relationship of both price and non-price elements of bank lending, particularly considering the risk-taking channel of monetary policy.     

Consolidation in banking and the lending channel of monetary transmission: Evidence from Asia and Latin America

This paper examines the relationship between increased consolidation in banking and monetary policy transmission in eighteen Asian and Latin American economies, using bank-level data from 1996 to 2006. Our results provide consistent evidence that as concentration in banking increases, the bank lending channel is weakened, leading the monetary policy transmission mechanism to be less effective. We also investigate how this relationship between concentration and the strength of the lending channel depends on bank-specific characteristics. Using bank-level balance sheet and income statement data allows us, first, to better identify the effects of banking consolidation on the supply-side bank lending channel from those of the demand-side interest rate channel, and second, to test for any systematic differences in the impact of consolidation on monetary policy transmission across banks of different size and financial strength. We also discuss potential explanations for and policy implications of the main findings of this paper.     

Deposit interest rate ceilings as credit supply shifters: Bank level evidence on the effects of Regulation Q

How did deposit interest rate ceilings, an important feature of the U.S. regulatory regime until the mid-1980s, affect individual banks’ lending and the transmission of monetary policy to credit? I estimate the effect of deposit rate ceilings inscribed in Regulation Q on commercial banks’ credit growth using a historical bank level data set starting in 1959. Banks’ credit growth contracted sharply when legally fixed deposit rate ceilings were binding. Interaction terms with monetary policy suggest that the policy impact on bank level credit growth was non-linear and significantly larger when rate ceilings were in place. Bank size and capitalization mitigate these effects. At the bank level, short-term interest rates exceeding the legally fixed deposit rate ceilings identify policy induced credit supply shifts that disappeared with deposit rate deregulation and thus weakened the bank lending channel substantially since the early 1980s.     

Firm balance sheets and monetary policy transmission

The functioning of internal capital markets in financial conglomerates facilitates a novel identification strategy of the balance sheet channel of monetary policy. We look at small subsidiary banks that are affiliated with the same holding company but operate in different geographical areas. These banks face the same marginal cost of funds due to internal capital markets, but face different borrowers as they concentrate their lending with small local businesses. Exploring cross-sectional variation in local economic conditions across these subsidiaries, we investigate whether borrower creditworthiness influences the response of bank lending to monetary policy. Our results are consistent with a demand-driven transmission mechanism that works through firm balance sheets and is independent from the bank lending channel.     

The spillovers,interactions, and (un)intended consequences of monetary and regulatory policies

Have bank regulatory policies and unconventional monetary policies—and any possible interactions—been a factor behind the recent “deglobalisation” in cross-border bank lending? To test this hypothesis, we use bank-level data from the UK—a country at the heart of the global financial system. Our results suggest that increases in microprudential capital requirements tend to reduce international bank lending and some forms of unconventional monetary policy can amplify this effect. Specifically, the UK׳s Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS) significantly amplified the effects of increased capital requirements on cross-border lending. Quantitative easing did not appear to have a similar effect and countries with stronger prudential capital regulations were partially insulated against the effects of these changes in UK policy. We find that this interaction between microprudential regulations and the FLS can explain roughly 30% of the contraction in aggregate UK cross-border bank lending between mid-2012 and end-2013, corresponding to around 10% of the global contraction in cross-border lending. This suggests that unconventional monetary policy designed to support domestic lending can have the unintended consequence of reducing foreign lending.     

The interest rate pass-through in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis

We investigate the pass-through of monetary policy to bank lending rates in the euro area during the sovereign debt crisis, in comparison to the pre-crisis period. We make the following contributions. First, we use a factor-augmented vector autoregression, which allows us to assess the responses of a large number of country-specific interest rates and spreads. Second, we analyze the effects of monetary policy on the components of the interest rate pass-through, which reflect banks' funding risk (including sovereign risk) and markups charged by banks over funding costs. Third, we not only consider conventional but also unconventional monetary policy. We find that while the transmission of conventional monetary policy to bank lending rates has not changed with the crisis, the composition of the pass-through has changed. Specifically, expansionary conventional monetary policy lowered sovereign risk in peripheral countries and longer-term bank funding risk in peripheral and core countries during the crisis, but has been unable to lower banks' markups. This was not, or not as much, the case prior to the crisis. Unconventional monetary policy helped decreasing lending rates, mainly due to large shocks rather than a strong propagation.     

Small business lending and the bank-branch network

I examine the role of bank’s distance to the borrower and the proximity of other lenders for the transmission of financial shocks across the bank network. I use a novel dataset of small business lending based on information from the Community Reinvestment Act, which measures lending at census tract groups within each county and yields rich variation in the bank–borrower and borrower–competitor distance. I document that small banks with increased liquidity from proximity to local oil booms, originate more loans to firms far from these booms, and lenders with above-average geographic exposure to residential booms reduce lending in census tract groups with stable house prices. Bank–borrower distance is important for credit expansions, with closer firms receiving more credit, but not for contractions. Proximity of competitors plays a key role: consistent with theoretical predictions, both credit expansions and contractions disproportionately affect markets where the bank faces higher competition.     

International monetary policy spillovers through the bank funding channel

In this paper, we examine the international transmission of monetary policies of major advanced economies (US, UK, euro area) through banks in Austria and Germany. In particular, we compare the role of banks’ funding structure, broken down by country of origin as well as by currency denomination, in the international transmission of monetary policy changes to bank lending. We find weak evidence for inward spillovers through a bank funding channel. The more a bank is funded in US dollars, the more its domestic real sector lending is affected by monetary policy changes in the US. This effect is more pronounced in Germany than in Austria. We do not find evidence for outward spillovers of euro area monetary policy.     

通货膨胀、货币供给与房地产市场关系的实证研究——基于后危机时代数据的考察

我国在2009年底推出的经济政策导致房价和物价不断攀升,央行虽然采取紧缩措施进行应对,但物价和房价仍处高位。对我国货币供给、通货膨胀及房地产之间关系进行理论和实证分析的结果显示:货币供给增加能引起物价和房价上涨;房价上涨能引起物价上涨等。因此,为了更好地应对物价波动,货币政策需关注资产价格,同时应谨慎使用货币政策应对资产泡沫,并密切注意货币流动结构,维持货币供给流向与实体经济发展相适应。     

借贷便利创新工具有效影响了商业银行贷款利率吗？

本文基于手工收集的2009—2017年中国银行业数据,利用我国借贷便利工具创新这一准自然实验,以借贷便利工具的运用需要商业银行提供合格担保品这一要求为切入点,考察了借贷便利工具对商业银行贷款利率的影响。研究发现,借贷便利工具创设后,商业银行持有的合格担保品规模越大,其贷款利率越低,且这一效应随着时间推移逐渐增强。进一步的作用机制检验发现,央行的借贷便利操作扩大了商业银行向中央银行借款规模和贷款投放规模,从而有效降低了商业银行贷款利率,也表明借贷便利工具可通过商业银行合格担保品渠道发挥作用。因此,可以通过调整借贷便利操作规模、操作利率以及合格担保品范围的方式有效影响商业银行贷款利率进而发挥对社会融资成本的调控作用。     

住房价格、金融稳定与宏观审慎政策

本文通过建立包含异质性家庭、异质性厂商和金融机构的DSGE模型,分析对预期房价作出反应的货币政策和宏观审慎政策的传导机制和政策效果,研究不同政策的选择和协调问题。研究发现,首先,由于政策的作用范围不同,不同政策会对金融稳定和经济稳定产生不同影响。对预期房价作出反应的货币政策能够抑制住房需求和信贷供给,但也会抑制消费需求和产出;而对预期房价作出反应的逆周期LTV政策和逆周期资本充足率政策在应对房价波动导致的金融稳定问题时更加有的放矢。其次,外生冲击的来源会影响政策的选择和协调——当经济波动来源于需求冲击时,固定LTV政策搭配逆周期资本充足率的宏观审慎政策、不对预期房价作出反应的货币政策表现最优;当经济波动来源于供给冲击时,固定LTV政策搭配逆周期资本充足率的宏观审慎政策、对预期房价作出反应的货币政策表现最优。     

The international transmission of monetary policy through financial centres: Evidence from the United Kingdom and Hong Kong

This paper explores the cross-border transmission of monetary policy by comparing and contrasting the results for two major international financial centres: Hong Kong and the United Kingdom. We examine the effect of monetary policy in the USA, euro area and Japan, on banks’ domestic lending behaviour. Using individual bank-level data we find that financial connections – in the form of lending to and borrowing from the country which changes monetary policy - play an important role in the transmission of foreign monetary policy. We are able to establish evidence for both a bank funding and bank portfolio channel of monetary policy, for both Hong Kong and the UK. These results contrast to the largely inconclusive results from previous studies, whose aggregate nature may have masked offsetting individual bank effects.     

Banks’ lending behavior and monetary policy: evidence from Sweden

The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the aggregate data about bank loans which may hide significant information about the monetary transmission mechanism. This study, by disaggregating bank loans data and using the relevant interest rates in Sweden, investigates the behaviour of banks after a monetary policy tightening. By using an unrestricted VAR model and impulse response analysis, our results show that a shock on the policy rate affects the main components of the banks’ loan portfolios differently. Initially, banks do not reduce lending to firms and households and they present a sluggish reaction concerning the relevant interest rates. On the contrary, they reduce lending to mortgage credit institutions significantly since real estate lending can be considered as a risky long-term investment. Moreover mortgage credit institutions reduce lending for housing purposes to non-bank public. This reduction is mainly driven by flexible rate loans and loans secured on tenant owned apartments. Consequently, theses actions have a significant effect on real economic activity, by amplifying the initial shock from the tightening monetary policy. The latter result provides evidence of the bank lending channel in Sweden working via mortgage lending and could be very important for policy makers.     

International monetary policy transmission through banks in small open economies

This paper studies the international transmission of monetary policy through banks in small open economies using the examples of Switzerland and Canada. We assess the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy for Switzerland and the outward transmission of domestic monetary policy for Canada. In both country cases, we focus on the international bank lending and the international portfolio channel, which make opposing predictions about how monetary policy transmits internationally through banks. Our results on the inward transmission of foreign monetary policy through banks in Switzerland are consistent with a role for the international portfolio channel, but we find no evidence for the traditional international bank lending channel. The results on the outward transmission of domestic monetary policy in Canada suggest that foreign lending by Canadian banks is affected through both channels, which work as predicted and largely balance each other.     

银行资本、经济周期和货币政策文献综述

银行资本自身具有顺周期变化的特点,监管当局的资本监管一般会导致信贷供给更为严重的顺周期性,并放大经济冲击,因此在经济高涨期,必须高度关注信贷快速扩张的潜在后果。银行资本的顺周期变化也会使货币政策效果表现出非对称性,造成经济周期的不同阶段货币政策的效果不同,中央银行和监管当局政策目标的差异往往也会导致短期银行资本监管与货币政策内的潜在冲突,但长期目标是一致的。我国正逐步实施巴塞尔新资本协议,相关国际研究成果值得梳理和借鉴。     

International spillovers of monetary policy: Lessons from Chile,Korea, and Poland

In this paper, we assess evidence on international monetary policy spillovers to domestic bank lending in Chile, Korea, and Poland, using confidential bank-level data and different measures of monetary policy shocks in relevant currency areas. These three emerging market economies are small and open, their banking systems do not have significant presence overseas, and they can be considered as price takers in the world economy. Such features allow for better identification of binding financial constraints and foreign monetary policy shocks. We find that the monetary policy shocks spill over into domestic bank lending, modifying the degree to which financial frictions tighten or relax, and this evidence is consistent with international bank lending and portfolio channels.     

Implications of bank ownership for the credit channel of monetary policy transmission: Evidence from India

Using bank-level data from India, we examine the impact of ownership on the reaction of banks to monetary policy, and also test whether the reaction of different types of banks to monetary policy changes is different in easy and tight policy regimes. Our results suggest that there are considerable differences in the reactions of different types of banks to monetary policy initiatives of the central bank, and that the bank lending channel of monetary policy is likely to be much more effective in a tight money period than in an easy money period. We also find differences in impact of monetary policy changes on less risky short-term and more risky medium-term lending. We discuss the policy implications of the findings.